California High Speed Rail Thread

[Busy Bee]

The moon race was also over-budget. After the first step on the gray dust on live tv, nobody gave a shit. HSR will be exactly the same.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

California HSR has done so much harm to HSR developments across the US.

Well that's not included in the Environmental Impact Report

It has given opponents fuel to add to the fire that HSR is a losing proposition and will never come in even remotely close to the budget they originally proposed and deadlines are nothing more than a moving target.

They at first said it wouldn't get approved, then it wouldn't get built, now it's wont get finished/overbudget. They have fire till the project is complete, and then they will probably complain after till they ride the darn thing.

California has the gold standard of how NOT to build HSR.

Well we sure need to start a project soon after voting for it, since support will peel each year construction hasn't started.
A state where everything is more expensive and people get angry that it's gonna cost more? Maybe if it was fully federal....but it aint. What's being built right now, is some of the cheapest stuff in the state.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by k1052

I'm kind of hoping for major LOSSAN corridor money since it's going to be a very very long wait for HSR. Give it the Caltrain treatment and then some (big ticket items like Del Mar tunnel).

CAHSR Phase 1 overlaps LOSSAN from LA Union to Anaheim. The existing plan will quadruple track, electrify, and fully grade separate the 25~ mile distance between those points.

From the end of planned electrification in Anaheim to DT San Diego is about 90 miles. It would cost north of $5 billion to build a Del Mar Tunnel and electrify the line, piggy-backed on CAHSR Phase 1. They could probably turn the 15~ miles of track past Camp Pendleton into high speed operation without any exotic high-cost construction.

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

CAHSR Phase 1 overlaps LOSSAN from LA Union to Anaheim. The existing plan will quadruple track, electrify, and fully grade separate the 25~ mile distance between those points.

From the end of planned electrification in Anaheim to DT San Diego is about 90 miles. It would cost north of $5 billion to build a Del Mar Tunnel and electrify the line, piggy-backed on CAHSR Phase 1. They could probably turn the 15~ miles of track past Camp Pendleton into high speed operation.

Realistically you'd also need to build an tunnel under San Clemente, since that's the only way you could double track the entire line. CAHSR said it'd be necessary to get the required levels of service out of the corridor when they were scoping out possible Phase II routes.

I've often questioned CAHSR's decision to route the southern Phase II on a dedicated line east of the coastal range. Due to the shorter distance, track sharing through LOSSAN would have virtually the same travel times (~1 hour). San Diego is already committed to double tracking everything south of Pendleton. San Clemente already supports a tunnel, the current tracks cut their city in two. CAHSR could have an extension to SD for only the cost of an ~5-8 mile tunnel and 90 miles of electrification, and it would be regionally popular through a good section of the corridor.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

Realistically you'd also need to build an tunnel under San Clemente, since that's the only way you could double track the entire line. CAHSR said it'd be necessary to get the required levels of service out of the corridor when they were scoping out possible Phase II routes.

They could avoid tunnel construction by removing a lane from each side of I-5 and building the rail corridor down the middle.

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

I've often questioned CAHSR's decision to route the southern Phase II on a dedicated line east of the coastal range. Due to the shorter distance, track sharing through LOSSAN would have virtually the same travel times (~1 hour). San Diego is already committed to double tracking everything south of Pendleton.

Well the Inland Empire area served by CAHSR Phase 2 probably has far more people than the areas between Anaheim and Camp Pendleton, plus Phase 2 is the setup for HSR to Phoenix.

Also the relatively slow transit time between San Diego and Los Angeles - even for an express train with no local stops, means they probably found HSR to NoCal from San Diego to be uncompetitive with flying. There is also the issue with staging a large number of trains at the end of the line - there is tons of space in Anaheim near the stadium but not near downtown San Diego. Yes, that same problem will exist if HSR is built between San Diego and Phoenix, but imagine ALL of the trains from NoCal and Phoenix trying to find a place to park near San Diego.

Flying from San Diego to San Francisco is only like 15 minutes longer than from LAX, but by train it will be at least an hour longer.

[jmecklenborg]

A quick google search uncovered this tasty detail:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...419-story.html

Apparently CAHSR did want to reach San Diego via this line in 2001, and the concept for a 5+ mile tunnel was proposed to avoid double-tracking the beach.

I think the big question would be if they want to:
a)completely remove the existing tracks, meaning freight has to go through a new tunnel, meaning they need to use electric freight locomotives and possibly build a much larger bore to accommodate double stacks
b)move freight to the tunnel but leave the existing tracks for tourist excursion trains
c)replace the existing freight tracks with a tourist-oriented light railway


If they are also going to build the planned Del Mar tunnel in San Diego, that means the argument for forcing freight to use electric locomotives improves, but they're still stuck with the double-stacking issue.

It's possible that they could build one normal bore and one larger bore tunnel and dictate that all freight needs to use the larger bore.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

A quick google search uncovered this tasty detail:
https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-...419-story.html

Apparently CAHSR did want to reach San Diego via this line in 2001, and the concept for a 5+ mile tunnel was proposed to avoid double-tracking the beach.

I think the big question would be if they want to:
a)completely remove the existing tracks, meaning freight has to go through a new tunnel, meaning they need to use electric freight locomotives and possibly build a much larger bore to accommodate double stacks
b)move freight to the tunnel but leave the existing tracks for tourist excursion trains
c)replace the existing freight tracks with a tourist-oriented light railway


If they are also going to build the planned Del Mar tunnel in San Diego, that means the argument for forcing freight to use electric locomotives improves, but they're still stuck with the double-stacking issue.

It's possible that they could build one normal bore and one larger bore tunnel and dictate that all freight needs to use the larger bore.

I didn't think double stack containers are run on LOSSAN south of Anaheim. I know auto transporters are from the San Diego port though which are about as tall but you could push that business to Long Beach I think.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

The moon race was also over-budget. After the first step on the gray dust on live tv, nobody gave a shit. HSR will be exactly the same.

You're comparing the first humans going to the moon to building an HSR which has been built all over the world for 50 years by now?

[Busy Bee]

Don't over think it buddy.

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

There is also the issue with staging a large number of trains at the end of the line - there is tons of space in Anaheim near the stadium but not near downtown San Diego. Yes, that same problem will exist if HSR is built between San Diego and Phoenix, but imagine ALL of the trains from NoCal and Phoenix trying to find a place to park near San Diego.

SD is already looking at building a replacement union station just outside of downtown, next to the airport. It would have more than enough capacity.





As ever though, we'll have to see how funding works out.

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Well the Inland Empire area served by CAHSR Phase 2 probably has far more people than the areas between Anaheim and Camp Pendleton, plus Phase 2 is the setup for HSR to Phoenix.

Also the relatively slow transit time between San Diego and Los Angeles - even for an express train with no local stops, means they probably found HSR to NoCal from San Diego to be uncompetitive with flying.

Everything you mention is true, but ihmo irrelevant.

A track to Phoenix is really off scope for this project. We are struggling just to fund Phase I. Getting anything from Phase II at all is looking pretty unlikely rn. imo we should abandon any talk of Arizona, and focus on maximizing the possibility Phase II gets build at all.

The current Phase II route is near double the length of LOSSAN, so the travel times come out to a wash. Either way it's going to take a little over an hour between SD and LA. It's unlikely that anyone is going to ride all the way from SD to SF anyway, the value is connecting LA to SD and the potential riders in between.

The IE is politically conservative, and you're building outside of existing ROW which means mass land appropriations. They will fight tooth and nail against running an HSR line through their area, just like the central valley did, which will add years and billions to the cost of the line.

So the choice is between building on extremely expensive new ROW that's regionally unpopular, or existing ROW that already has a level of community support for upgrades. The latter is so, so much more likely to actually get built, even in a positive funding environment. imo the relatively small increase in potential riders doesn't justify the addition challenges for an already challenging project.

[electricron]

San Diego population was estimated in 2019 to be 3,338,330, ranking #17 with an increase of 7.85% since 2010.
The Inland Empire population was estimated in 2019 to be 4,650,631, ranking #13 with an increase of 19,08% since 2010.
Not only is the Inland Empire larger, it is also growing faster.

Amtrak runs 12 round trips Surfliner trains between LA and SD, Amtrak runs 2 round trip Sunset Limited trains between SB and LA 3 times each week, and 2 round trip trains between Riverside and LA 7 days a week.

So, in a period of just one week, LA to SD is serviced by 84 trains vs 20 LA to the IE. I suggest there are valid reasons for Phase 2 to be routed via the IE.

Additionally, the elapse time for the Surfliner trains between LA and SD is 2 hours and 45 minutes, a time less than the 3 hour sweet spot where trains should gain higher market share than planes - as is. There are further improvements in the plans between LA and Anaheim that should reduce the elapse time some more. There are no direct train services between SD and the IE today, maybe there should be with the completion of Phase 2.

[SFBruin]

LA to IE is already serviced by hundreds of Metrolink trains per week.

Routing Phase II along Camp Pendleton basically means faster service between LA/Anaheim (pop 12 million) and San Diego (pop 3 million).

Routing Phase II via the IE basically means duplication of service between LA (pop 9 million) and IE (pop 4 million), introduction of service between IE (pop 4 million) and San Diego (pop 3 million), and somewhat faster service between LA (pop 9 million) and San Diego (pop 3 million).

I think that you can debate which alignment is better, but if I were in charge of it (I am not), I would probably try to link the two largest employment centers (downtown LA and downtown SD) with the fastest possible service, and leave commutes between IE and San Diego to have a transfer at LA Union Station.

[Will O' Wisp]

Originally Posted by electricron

So, in a period of just one week, LA to SD is serviced by 84 trains vs 20 LA to the IE. I suggest there are valid reasons for Phase 2 to be routed via the IE.

Additionally, the elapse time for the Surfliner trains between LA and SD is 2 hours and 45 minutes, a time less than the 3 hour sweet spot where trains should gain higher market share than planes - as is. There are further improvements in the plans between LA and Anaheim that should reduce the elapse time some more. There are no direct train services between SD and the IE today, maybe there should be with the completion of Phase 2.

All very, very true. I can see the logic of the IE route, and if funding/politics I probably would make the decision CAHSR did (well, if I really had my way we would build on both routes, and add a new transbay tube to link SF an Sacramento. My dream CAHSR map is a massive figure 8 that connects all of CA's major cities)

But, bluntly, I don't think Phase II in its current for will ever be constructed. The money and political will simply aren't there, even if a Biden infrastructure plan goes through. So for rather selfish reasons I would like to see HSR come to San Diego, and LOSSAN seems like the best bet by far. The ROW is there, there's public support for improvements, and the corridor is already extremely popular with commuters. A ~1 hour travel time won't just compete with air travel, it would be faster than diving in daytime traffic. A service like that would immediately popular and well used.

[electricron]

Originally Posted by Will O' Wisp

All very, very true. I can see the logic of the IE route, and if funding/politics I probably would make the decision CAHSR did (well, if I really had my way we would build on both routes, and add a new transbay tube to link SF an Sacramento. My dream CAHSR map is a massive figure 8 that connects all of CA's major cities)

But, bluntly, I don't think Phase II in its current for will ever be constructed. The money and political will simply aren't there, even if a Biden infrastructure plan goes through. So for rather selfish reasons I would like to see HSR come to San Diego, and LOSSAN seems like the best bet by far. The ROW is there, there's public support for improvements, and the corridor is already extremely popular with commuters. A ~1 hour travel time won't just compete with air travel, it would be faster than diving in daytime traffic. A service like that would immediately popular and well used.

I understand why so many want higher speed trains on LOSSAN between LA and SD. Much of the line is single track, although there are consistent efforts to double track it. But to really run both slow speed local trains and high speed regional trains on the same corridor, it needs to be quad track like in the UK. I believe the powers to be at CHSR realized this as well, which is why they wished to build an entirely new dedicated HSR line via the IE so as to avoid quad tracking an existing line. Just discussing double tracking some are discussing expensive tunnels, imagine the costs of quad track tunnels.

LA to SD is 120 miles. The existing Surfliners take 2.75 hours to travel that distance averaging 43.6 mph. Metrolink and Coaster trains on this corridor average even slower speeds.
How fast is fast enough. How long should the trip be to be effective?
2 hours = average 60 mph
1.5 hours = average 80 mph
1 hour = average 120 mph
0.5 hour = average 240 mph
Keep in mind that the faster the average speed needs to be; the fewer station stops the trains can make, and the higher the fares will be.
Then consider that on a good day you can drive it in 1 hour and 48 minutes per Google for just the price of gas - assuming you already have a car in your driveway.

I strongly believe people should look at HSR projects with 3 fare prices in mind.
The cheapest being an all stop local bus or train service with monthly passes with steep subsidies
The medium fares for slow regional and long distance trains with smaller subsidies
The most expensive HSR and airline fares with zero subsidies

There are potential passengers in every fare category. Those wishing to pay the highest fares want and expect as fast service over distances as airlines. The 3 hour elapse time rule I keep repeating over and over again. LA to SD is already less than 3 hours, maximizing its' average speed is not going to increase its' market share as fare prices climb respectfully. In the LA to SD market, planners should be looking at maximizing riders balancing fares and speeds. I do not think a 200 mph train speed is needed to maximize ridership.

[k1052]

Originally Posted by electricron

Just discussing double tracking some are discussing expensive tunnels, imagine the costs of quad track tunnels.

Uh the need especially at Del Mar is that the existing ROW is crumbling onto the beach. A tunnel under the town is going to have to happen in any event. Double tracking it isn't going to add that much to the overall cost.

[jmecklenborg]

Biden is trying to give $80 billion to Amtrak. Here is what Amtrak sez it can do with that sum:
http://media.amtrak.com/wp-content/u...-Statement.pdf

We see no Pacheco Pass Tunnel or new CAHSR connection between Bakersfield and Los Angeles. We do see "enhancement" of the LOSSAN corridor.

Looks like they're keeping CASHR out of this bill to reduce controversy but will return to the matter with the rumored follow-up bill.

Keep in mind that improvements to LOSSAN *are* improvements to CAHSR Phase 1 near Los Angeles. We might see this bill help fund LA Union Station improvements and grade separations/electrification that will be shared by CAHSR.

[Busy Bee]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Biden is trying to give $80 billion to Amtrak. Here is what Amtrak sez it can do with that sum:
http://media.amtrak.com/wp-content/u...-Statement.pdf

We see no Pacheco Pass Tunnel or new CAHSR connection between Bakersfield and Los Angeles. We do see "enhancement" of the LOSSAN corridor.

Looks like they're keeping CASHR out of this bill to reduce controversy but will return to the matter with the rumored follow-up bill.

Keep in mind that improvements to LOSSAN *are* improvements to CAHSR Phase 1 near Los Angeles. We might see this bill help fund LA Union Station improvements and grade separations/electrification that will be shared by CAHSR.

Those were my thoughts as well.

[k1052]

I'm not sure that CAHSR isn't going to be in the bill just on the basis of Amtrak not talking about it.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by k1052

I'm not sure that CAHSR isn't going to be in the bill just on the basis of Amtrak not talking about it.

There's $80 billion for "passenger and freight trains" per the WSJ. I haven't seen a further breakdown on the $80 billion but the Secretary of Transportation is an HSR advocate so I'd bet there's something in there for HSR and if so Madam Speaker Pelosi and the rest of the CA Congressional delegation will make sure CA gets its share.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Biden is trying to give $80 billion to Amtrak. Here is what Amtrak sez it can do with that sum:
http://media.amtrak.com/wp-content/u...-Statement.pdf

We see no Pacheco Pass Tunnel or new CAHSR connection between Bakersfield and Los Angeles. We do see "enhancement" of the LOSSAN corridor.

Looks like they're keeping CASHR out of this bill to reduce controversy but will return to the matter with the rumored follow-up bill.

Keep in mind that improvements to LOSSAN *are* improvements to CAHSR Phase 1 near Los Angeles. We might see this bill help fund LA Union Station improvements and grade separations/electrification that will be shared by CAHSR.

The map you linked shows "new service" in the Central Valley and one assumes that's the HSR segment under construction. But it also shows "enhanced service" over the entire LA to SF route beyond the "new service". It also shows "new service" between LA and Las Vegas, presumably the privately funded HSR (I'm not sure where this is at on the road to getting built) that would link to the CAHSR project.

No telling what the enhancements envisioned by Amtrak might be but, as you say, they are likely to all be helpful to CAHSR to varying degrees.

As to a later bill, they were saying they planned to pass one of the two big bills by the reconciliation process and hoped to get some Republican votes for the other. I've lost track, I think, but I had thought it was the second bill that would go "reconciliation" and they thought they could get some Republicans on board for "infrastructure". But that was before they put a lot of stuff in the first bill that raises eyebrows calling it "infrastructure". I mean $400 billion for home care of seniors might very well be very helpful to me someday (sooner than I'd like to hope) but is it "infrastructure"?