Largest modern era municipal population drops

[iheartthed]

I compiled a list of the largest declines in urban populations in modern times, and the duration over which the decline occurred. This is a peak to valley measure, so duration means the year of the peak population through the year of the floor being reached. Most of the list is from U.S. cities, but I also tried to pull in some cities from Canada, the UK, and France. One interesting thing that I noticed is every region has a theme. Most of the U.S. declines started in 1950 or 1960. The Canadian declines occurred between 1971 and 1981. Although I didn't dive too deep into Europe, there does also appear to be a theme where their declines commenced in the 1920s or 1930s

Tokyo: -3,886,687 (53% decline) --- 1940-1945 (duration)
Aleppo: -2,478,000* (80% decline) --- 2010-2014
London: -1,555,903 (19% decline) --- 1951-1981
London: -1,555,903 (19% decline) --- 1951-1981
Berlin: -1,531,351 (35% decline) --- 1939 - 1945
Detroit: -1,210,457 (65% decline) --- 1950-present
Chicago: -925,364 (25% decline) --- 1950-2010
New York: -823,924 (10% decline) --- 1970-1980
Paris: -781,226 (27% decline) --- 1921-1999(?)
Baghdad: -561,000* (10% decline) --- 2003-2007
St. Louis: -557,218 (65% decline) --- 1950-present
Philadelphia: -554,055 (27% decline) --- 1950-2000
Cleveland: -542,184 (60% decline) --- 1950-present
Liverpool: -406,874 (48% decline) --- 1931-2001
Pittsburgh: -373,835 (55% decline) --- 1950-present
Baltimore: -364,000 (38% decline) --- 1950-present
Buffalo: -318,822 (55% decline) --- 1950-2010
Riga, Latvia: -303,333 (33% decline) --- 1990-present
New Orleans: -283,696 (45% decline) --- 1960-2010
Dresden: -280,733 (43% decline) --- 1933-1945
Leipzig: -247,422 (34% decline) ---1930-1995
Boston: -238,450 (21% decline) --- 1950-1980
Montreal: -234,000 (20% decline) --- 1971-1981
Washington: -230,119 (28% decline) --- 1950-2000
Genoa: -228,204 (28% decline) --- 1971-present
Cincinnati: -207,053 (41% decline) --- 1950-2010
Milwaukee: -164,102 (22% decline) --- 1960-present
Minneapolis: -153,335 (29% decline) --- 1950-1990
Birmingham, AL: -140,154 (41% decline) --- 1950-present
San Juan: -120,983 (26% decline) --- 1970-present
Toronto: -114,000 (16% decline) --- 1971-1981
Gary, IN: -109,227 (61% decline) --- 1960-present
Atlanta: -101,022 (21% decline) --- 1970-1990
San Francisco: -96,383 (12% decline) --- 1950-1980
Seattle: -63,241 (11% decline) --- 1960-1980

*based on urban area estimates

[Steely Dan]

percentages would help for greater context.

NYC's single decade drop of 824K was nowhere near as detrimental to the city as STL's 7 decade long decline of 557K has been.

[Yuri]

That's city proper, right? If it's urban area only, than pretty much all declines are inside the US. And New York is the only megacity in the world to have declined (metro area) wise.

I was impressed by the number Steely posted on the other thread regarding White people leaving Detroit: from 1,500,000 to 50,000 (!!!) between 1950-2010.

[Crawford]

Even crazier for Detroit - the city had an employee residency requirement until maybe 15 years ago, so that probably blunted some of the white flight.

And in more recent decades, there has been Arab overflow from Dearborn. A lot of the whites in Detroit proper are Arab Americans. The whitest non-core part of the city is immediately adjacent to Dearborn/Dearborn heights. No question that's a response to East Dearborn overcrowding and high home prices.

And I'm pretty sure Detroit was much whiter than other Rust Belt cities in the early years of white flight. Cleveland and Newark definitely were much blacker. I think even NYC was blacker for a short while. DC, Baltimore and Philly were far blacker. Detroit didn't become a race outlier until the 1980's.

Pretty sure Newark was majority black by the early 1960's. It isn't majority black anymore, and will probably have a Hispanic plurality within 10-15 years. And a lot of the black population has shifted to West African & West Indian immigration. Of course it isn't an exact comparison, bc Newark has tiny city limits that's entirely 1920-era development or earlier. If you took the equivalent geography for Detroit it probably would have been majority black by the mid-1960's. Detroit wasn't majority black until the 1970's.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

percentages would help for greater context.

NYC's single decade drop of 824K was nowhere near as detrimental to the city as STL's 7 decade long decline of 557K has been.

I'll add them. I would point out that NYC's drop happened within a single decade, so it was definitely a shock to the system.

[Crawford]

Also, a lot of demographers are skeptical of NYC's 1980 Census count. They believe the 1970 count was an overcount and the 1980 count an undercount. There were big losses, no doubt, but I've heard estimates more in the 500-600k range. The city was already losing population in the late 1960's, and might have already been gaining population in the late 1970's.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I'll add them. I would point out that NYC's drop happened within a single decade, so it was definitely a shock to the system.

I think a lot of that drop just got transferred elsewhere in the metro. Still unfortunate for the actual core city. The great migration to the burbs or surrounding ring areas.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by chris08876

I think a lot of that drop just got transferred elsewhere in the metro. Still unfortunate for the actual core city. The great migration to the burbs or surrounding ring areas.

1980 Census was horrible for NJ as well. The whole metro area dropped. In fact, it was horrible for the entire Northeast and the Great Lakes.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, a lot of demographers are skeptical of NYC's 1980 Census count. They believe the 1970 count was an overcount and the 1980 count an undercount. There were big losses, no doubt, but I've heard estimates more in the 500-600k range. The city was already losing population in the late 1960's, and might have already been gaining population in the late 1970's.

The NYC district maps for median income at the time seem kind of OK-ish? The lower income areas dropped into outright poverty, but the rest of the city didn’t look too bad.

Chicago in there same time period is much more precarious.

[Minato Ku]

Paris large drop of population is largerly due to an improvement of living condition and a gentrification rather than a real decline of the city.
The City of Paris used to very overcrowded. The number of people per housing has decreased, (except for a few extreme cases) you no longer have famillies with 5 children in one bedroom apartments like it used to be (families moved to the suburbs for bigger accommodation).
There was also the transformation of housing into office space in Central Paris but due to an extensive construction in the outer arrondissements, the number of housing actually increased in the City of Paris.

The City proper only cover 40 sq mi, actually before 1930 the size of the City of was only 32 sq mi. It gained a few sq mi when the big large Bois de Boulogne and Bois de Vincennes parks on its edge were added.

[dave8721]

The City of Miami has never had a population drop in a census. It came close in the 90's (Hurricane Andrew and general urban decay) when it grew by just 1.1%.

Miami-Dade County saw drops in the 1840's and 1850s. Dropping to just 83 people in 1860 (from 446 in 1840) due to the Seminole Wars & the Civil War. From the 1860 census, the population has never dropped from one census to another. The 8.2% rise in the 2020 census was actually the smallest % increase since the 1870 census.

[iheartthed]

Added percentage declines. Detroit and St. Louis are tied at 65% for the steepest declines.

[Steely Dan]

I got another rust-belt decliner for you to add:

Milwaukee: -164,102 (22% decline) --- 1960-present

[iheartthed]

^Added Milwaukee.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Minato Ku

Paris large drop of population is largerly due to an improvement of living condition and a gentrification rather than a real decline of the city.
The City of Paris used to very overcrowded. The number of people per housing has decreased, (except for a few extreme cases) you no longer have famillies with 5 children in one bedroom apartments like it used to be (families moved to the suburbs for bigger accommodation).
There was also the transformation of housing into office space in Central Paris but due to an extensive construction in the outer arrondissements, the number of housing actually increased in the City of Paris.

The City proper only cover 40 sq mi, actually before 1930 the size of the City of was only 32 sq mi. It gained a few sq mi when the big large Bois de Boulogne and Bois de Vincennes parks on its edge were added.

And Ilê-de-France (Paris metro area) never experienced population decline:

1901 --- 4,735,580
1911 --- 5,335,220
1921 --- 5,682,598
1931 --- 6,705,579
1954 --- 7,317,063
1962 --- 8,470,015
1975 --- 9,878,565
1990 -- 10,660,554
1999 -- 10,952,011
2007 -- 11,598,866
2019 -- 12,262,544

[Wigs]

Yuri, this may be a dumb question. But have any cities or inner cities in Brazil experienced population decline?

[cabasse]

new orleans is another worthwhile mention - down 46% (283,696) from it's peak ~630k from 1960-2010

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by cabasse

new orleans is another worthwhile mention - down 39% from it's peak ~630k in 1960

We can't forget Katrina really screwed NOLA.
Also many chose to never move back

[craigs]

Berlin
1939: 4,330,640
1945: 3,064,629 −29.2%

[Klippenstein]

Gary IN - 109,227 (61.3%) decline
1960 | 178,320
2020 | 69,093


Also, Aleppo lost an untold number of people during the war, but has since recovered to 200,000 less than its 2005 numbers. Baghdad lost an estimated half million people after the US invasion, but has recovered fully.