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  #121  
Old Posted Sep 30, 2022, 10:57 PM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post

Even the Pacific Northwest, which people seem to tout as very liberal, looks quite Republican when you break it down by county:
Land doesn't vote, people do.

A lot those giant red counties in eastern WA & OR are some of the emptiest counties in the lower 48.



Look at IL.





It looks like an extremely red state,

but Biden easily won it by 17 points because 70% of the people are all crammed up into those blue counties in the far NE corner.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 1, 2022 at 5:14 PM.
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  #122  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2022, 3:55 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Gantz View Post
That district was actually D and flipped to R in 2020. So it is fairly close and the Dems can flip it back.

The main issue for Ds is that some Asians are starting to vote for Rs, as local education reform and non-merit based admissions are not popular with Asians.
I don't think it's close at all. I think that district was redrawn to favor the Republican candidate after the census. The only poll on 538 shows Malliotakis with a 15 point lead over Rose: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2/new-york/11/

That race is also getting absolutely no attention, which suggests it's not viewed to be competitive. By this time in 2020 I was swamped with ads from that race by Rose and Malliotakis, even though I don't even live near that district. I was also seeing ads for that race in 2018.
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  #123  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 1:03 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Land doesn't vote, people do.

A lot those giant red counties in eastern WA & OR are some of the emptiest counties in the lower 48.



Look at IL.





It looks like an extremely red state,

but Biden easily won it by 17 points because 70% of the people are all crammed up into those blue counties in the far NE corner.
These "Illinois is very Republican once you remove the Chicago metropolitan area" type arguments are pretty funny.
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  #124  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 1:05 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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Zeldin got 37% (!) in Queens and won Nassau County.
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  #125  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 3:13 AM
wwmiv wwmiv is offline
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
For retirees/snowbirds, I've noticed moving to Florida is now almost a political act. That's an extremely recent phenomenon. Before it was all about sunshine and avoiding taxes. Jewish garmentos from the Bronx (later LI) baking in the South Florida heat. Libs and cons both welcome.

So probably there's a bunch of deliberate self-sorting now. The Carolinas/GA coastal areas, which previously weren't even in play, seem to attract a different crowd, I think?
Atlanta is attracting loads of black retirees, Florida is a mixed bag depending on the city being spoken of, and the Carolinas see a large influx of southern retirees iirc.
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  #126  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 12:18 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
an old saying in chicago politics from last century:

“A Lithuanian won’t vote for a Pole, and a Pole won’t vote for a Lithuanian. A German won’t vote for either of them. But all three will vote for a turkey—an Irishman.”
That old saying did not apply to Pennsylvania these midterms, the (guy from) Turkey was soundly defeated
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  #127  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 3:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
These "Illinois is very Republican once you remove the Chicago metropolitan area" type arguments are pretty funny.
funny or not, many of the "fine" folks of downstate IL simply won't let it go.

since they can't seem to find a workable legal mechanism to kick Cook County out of Illinios, they are now trying to bundle up a bunch of downstate counties to secede from the state and form a new state called "New Illinois".

personally, i think they should go with "North Kentucky" for the new name.


Quote:
Movement to create a new state in southern Illinois gaining momentum

By Kevin Bessler | The Center Square Nov 14, 2022


A growing list of Illinois counties disenfranchised with the goings-on in Cook County have voted in nonbinding resolutions to leave Illinois and form a new state.

Residents in three more counties – Brown, Hardin and a portion of Madison County – voted in favor of a nonbinding resolution allowing their county board to explore the possibility of leaving the state, bringing the total to 27. In all three counties, close to 75% of residents were in favor of the idea.

The driving force behind the referendums was to allow the county board of each area to coordinate with other county boards to explore the possibility of leaving Illinois because of the influence that Chicago and Cook County have on the state’s political decisions.
full article: https://www.thecentersquare.com/illi...59c201fb1.html
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 17, 2022 at 3:43 PM.
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  #128  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 3:27 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Maybe the state of South Illinois can be created when they add the state of the District of Columbia.
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  #129  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 6:40 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Maybe the state of South Illinois can be created when they add the state of the District of Columbia.
well, given that the US Constitution is pretty clear on this matter, combined with the fact that the democrats hold super-majorities in both houses of the IL state legislature, i'm afraid that our downstate friends will not be getting their "New Illinois" anytime soon, regardless of how many county referendums they might pass.

Quote:
New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress
source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tion_proposals


this is just how it is.

IL is one of the few interior states with a city so massive and dominant that urban voices utterly swamp the rural/small-town voters of the state.

in other states, like Indiana for example, it is the rural/small town voices that completely overwhelm the urban voters of the state.


downstate illinoisians don't have to like it, but they will eventually have to accept it at some point.

alternatively, they can also leave the state, which is in fact happening:



Illinois 2010: 12,830,632

Illinois 2020: 12,812,508

growth: -18,124 (−0.1%)




9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2010: 8,586,609

9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2020: 8,730,688

growth: +144,079 (+1.7%)




the rest of IL 2010: 4,244,023

the rest of IL 2020: 4,081,820

growth: -162,203 (−3.8%)



chicagoland's modest growth is the only thing keeping IL barely treading water, while downstate is really struggling.
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  #130  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 6:59 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
well, given that the US Constitution is pretty clear on this matter, combined with the fact that the democrats hold super-majorities in both houses of the IL state legislature, i'm afraid that our downstate friends will not be getting their "New Illinois" anytime soon, regardless of how many county referendums they might pass.


source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tion_proposals


this is just how it is.

IL is one of the few interior states with a city so massive and dominant that urban voices utterly swamp the rural/small-town voters of the state.

in other states, like Indiana for example, it is the rural/small town voices that completely overwhelm the urban voters of the state.


downstate illinoisians don't have to like it, but they will eventually have to accept it at some point.

alternatively, they can also leave the state, which is in fact happening:



Illinois 2010: 12,830,632

Illinois 2020: 12,812,508

growth: -18,124 (−0.1%)




9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2010: 8,586,609

9 Chicago MSA counties in IL 2020: 8,730,688

growth: +144,079 (+1.7%)




the rest of IL 2010: 4,244,023

the rest of IL 2020: 4,081,820

growth: -162,203 (−3.8%)



chicagoland's modest growth is the only thing keeping IL barely treading water, while downstate is really struggling.
Proposing a state of South Illinois to balance a state of DC would help make the political parity case to Congress. Presumably a state of South Illinois would be conservative to offset the liberally leaning state of DC. The Illinois legislature would probably be the biggest roadblock if they coupled it with DC's statehood petition.
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  #131  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 7:01 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Chicago almost ended up in Wisconsin:

https://www.wpr.org/chicago-wisconsi...d-badger-state
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  #132  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 7:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
Chicago almost ended up in Wisconsin:
and the land was "taken" from wisconsin territory by an early illinois visionary, Nathaniel Pope, in part to give the new state a more "northern", and thus anti-slavery, disposition, a matter of important national consequence in the early 19th century.

Quote:
Since downstaters complain so often about sharing a state with Chicago, it’s important to remember that they wanted it this way. Nathaniel Pope of Springfield was the territorial delegate to Congress in 1817, as Illinois was preparing to enter the union. Pope wanted Chicago for the very same reason Mitchell wanted to get rid of it: because it adds a metropolitan, northern character to Illinois.

Originally, the Northwest Ordinance, passed by the Second Continental Conference in 1787, declared that Illinois’s northern border would run along a line defined by the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Had that plan been followed, it would’ve stretched from Calumet City to Moline. What we now know as Chicago would’ve been part of Wisconsin.

Pope proposed pushing the boundary line north. There were both commercial and political advantages to possessing a Lake Michigan port. The new state could build a canal connecting the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Most of the Illinois Territory’s early settlers were southerners. Pro-slavery sentiment was strong. But since Mississippi had just been admitted to the union, and would soon be followed by Alabama and Missouri, it was essential that Illinois be a free state to preserve the balance in the Senate. Pope wanted to attract Yankees migrating westward across the Great Lakes.

At the time, of course, no one knew that the unincorporated settlement at the mouth of the Chicago River would become one of the world’s great cities. But Pope realized it would be essential to shaping the state’s character.
source: https://chicagoreader.com/news-polit...t-of-illinois/



and here we are 200 years later and the same underlying cultural divide carries on, just FAR more lopsided these days......
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 17, 2022 at 8:47 PM.
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  #133  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 7:43 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan
… while downstate is really struggling.
Culminating with Cairo (“peak downstate” and “peak struggling”)
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  #134  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 8:09 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Originally, the Northwest Ordinance, passed by the Second Continental Conference in 1787, declared that Illinois’s northern border would run along a line defined by the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Had that plan been followed, it would’ve stretched from Calumet City to Moline. What we now know as Chicago would’ve been part of Wisconsin.

Pope proposed pushing the boundary line north. There were both commercial and political advantages to possessing a Lake Michigan port. The new state could build a canal connecting the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Most of the Illinois Territory’s early settlers were southerners. Pro-slavery sentiment was strong. But since Mississippi had just been admitted to the union, and would soon be followed by Alabama and Missouri, it was essential that Illinois be a free state to preserve the balance in the Senate. Pope wanted to attract Yankees migrating westward across the Great Lakes.

At the time, of course, no one knew that the unincorporated settlement at the mouth of the Chicago River would become one of the world’s great cities. But Pope realized it would be essential to shaping the state’s character.
I... don't believe they were dumb enough to not realize the potential economic bonanza for Illinois that came with direct lakefront access, and I think that had to be their primary motivating factor for putting the state boundary where they did. Connecticut and Massachusetts were fighting hard for lake access in the late 1700s but were cutoff by New York. Yet, at the same time Illinois was willing to give that up? That would've been an enormous blunder.
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  #135  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 8:25 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I... don't believe they were dumb enough to not realize the potential economic bonanza for Illinois that came with direct lakefront access, and I think that had to be their primary motivating factor for putting the state boundary where they did.
it was a both/and situation, as directly stated in the excerpt you quoted:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Originally, the Northwest Ordinance, passed by the Second Continental Conference in 1787, declared that Illinois’s northern border would run along a line defined by the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Had that plan been followed, it would’ve stretched from Calumet City to Moline. What we now know as Chicago would’ve been part of Wisconsin.

Pope proposed pushing the boundary line north. There were both commercial and political advantages to possessing a Lake Michigan port. The new state could build a canal connecting the Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Most of the Illinois Territory’s early settlers were southerners. Pro-slavery sentiment was strong. But since Mississippi had just been admitted to the union, and would soon be followed by Alabama and Missouri, it was essential that Illinois be a free state to preserve the balance in the Senate. Pope wanted to attract Yankees migrating westward across the Great Lakes.

At the time, of course, no one knew that the unincorporated settlement at the mouth of the Chicago River would become one of the world’s great cities. But Pope realized it would be essential to shaping the state’s character.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 17, 2022 at 8:52 PM.
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  #136  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 9:16 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Michigan and Wisconsin are fully above the Yankee-Midlander line. Indiana was mostly settled by Pennsylvanians and Virginians. Most of the geography of Illinois falls outside the Yankee settlement zone, but a majority of its population was in the Yankee sphere of influence.
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  #137  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I... don't believe they were dumb enough to not realize the potential economic bonanza for Illinois that came with direct lakefront access, and I think that had to be their primary motivating factor for putting the state boundary where they did. Connecticut and Massachusetts were fighting hard for lake access in the late 1700s but were cutoff by New York. Yet, at the same time Illinois was willing to give that up? That would've been an enormous blunder.
Connecticut owned most of Northeast Ohio back in the late 1700s-- the Connecticut Western Reserve. So, they did have lake access. What do you mean they were cut off by New York?
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  #138  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2022, 10:51 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Connecticut owned most of Northeast Ohio back in the late 1700s-- the Connecticut Western Reserve. So, they did have lake access. What do you mean they were cut off by New York?
They didn't have a contiguous land path west, which is what they wanted and were blocked from it by New York. Connecticut gave up claim to most of its territory west of New York following the Revolutionary War (Mass. claimed all territory directly west of it as well stretching into southern Michigan). The Western Reserve was the last piece of those territorial claims that Connecticut retained after they ceded claims to modern northern Pennsylvania. New York and Pennsylvania ended up as the only states with direct access to both the Atlantic Ocean and Great Lakes.


source: Wikipedia
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  #139  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2022, 12:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I... don't believe they were dumb enough to not realize the potential economic bonanza for Illinois that came with direct lakefront access, and I think that had to be their primary motivating factor for putting the state boundary where they did. Connecticut and Massachusetts were fighting hard for lake access in the late 1700s but were cutoff by New York. Yet, at the same time Illinois was willing to give that up? That would've been an enormous blunder.
I don’t think the early Illinois people quite realized the full potential of future Chicago even if they knew it would probably be an important location. The state passed an infrastructure plan to link Galena to Cairo before the railroads realized halfway that they made a directional blunder.

The state would later sell Chicago canal land to escape bankruptcy after the infrastructure plan and economic panic crashed the state’s finances.




But Illinois residents were panicked at the time that Missouri was going to be admitted before them, and that the slavery conflict would logjam the entire statehood process for them. Like DC, but during an era where quick industrialization was essential to success.

The state completely falsified its population for admittance since it was significantly below the constitutional limit of the time.

Nathaniel Pope was literally promising to Congress in 1817 that Illinois with Chicago would absolutely fight against confederacies, and that the U.S. military needed access to the Chicago River just in case.

Wisconsin tried to sway Chicago by promising the town could one of the two future senators all to itself if they didn’t go with Illinois, but the decision went otherwise.

Quote:
Extending the boundary, Pope argued, would also keep an “equilibrium of sentiment” between North and South “that would forever oppose the formation of separate and independent confederacies on the north, south, east and west.” John Moses, an Illinois politician and banker, wrote in his 1882 “History of Illinois” that Pope acted on his own in introducing the amendment. “The securing of the adoption of the … amendment, fraught with such material results, was of his own motion, and on his own responsibility, without the instruction or advice of his constituents.”
https://chicago.suntimes.com/2017/12...-200-years-ago
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  #140  
Old Posted Nov 18, 2022, 3:54 AM
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Originally Posted by edale View Post
Connecticut owned most of Northeast Ohio back in the late 1700s-- the Connecticut Western Reserve. So, they did have lake access. What do you mean they were cut off by New York?
Cleveland, Connecticut has a nice ring to it.
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