Ottawa-Gatineau Housing Market

[rocketphish]

Proposed short-term rental regulations headed to council for approval

By: Craig Lord, OBJ
Published: Nov 18, 2019 12:21pm EST

The city took one step closer to tightening its regulation of short-term rentals on Friday following a marathon committee meeting at City Hall.

Ottawa’s community and protective services committee heard from more than 60 delegates on proposals from city staff that, if implemented, would see hosts on home-sharing platforms such as Airbnb restricted to offering short-term rentals only in properties considered their primary residences. The regulations would also restrict corporations from operating short-term rentals and would introduce a permit system that could see operators lose their ability to rent out units based on poor behaviour.

The 10-hour-plus meeting saw concerned residents and business owners turn out in droves in an attempt to influence yays and nays from the committee, which had eight councillors in attendance. The staff recommendations on short-term rentals were ultimately approved 5-3; a separate motion to regulate long-term rentals through provisions such as landlord licensing passed unanimously.

City council will now consider the recommendations on Nov. 27.

At issue with the regulation of short-term suites is the concept of “ghost hotels” – entire residences rented out without a host living on-site. Some councillors and concerned residents at the meeting noted instances of violence at such properties rented on Airbnb, while others posited that the city’s affordable housing supply would benefit from returning these units to the rental market.

Other attendees argued in favour of operating and managing these units as legitimate businesses.

Genevieve Walton, the founder of professional Airbnb property manager Short & Suite BNB, told the meeting she was concerned she’d have to downsize her 30-person company if the city’s regulations came into effect. Scott Clement, co-owner of breathebnb Vacation Rental Management, told OBJ recently that the city’s proposal would “ruin” his 40-person firm’s ambitious growth plans.

Much of Friday’s meeting had Alex Dagg, public policy manager for Airbnb Canada, in the hot seat as she argued against city staff’s proposals. While she supported the idea of setting up a permit system to register local hosts, she said the principal residence requirement is “too restrictive” and would have a detrimental effect on Ottawa’s tourism industry.

Dagg noted that the 4,600 units listed locally on Airbnb yielded $36 million in revenues in the past 12 months. Over the course of the Canada Day weekend in 2017, when hordes of tourists flocked to the capital for Canada’s sesquicentennial celebrations, Dagg said some 6,000 guests stayed in Airbnb properties and brought in $1.1 million for hosts.

On the Canada 150 celebrations, Dagg looked to contrast the costs and rigidity of Ottawa’s traditional hotel industry with the flexibility of Airbnb.

“Airbnb hosts made it possible for people who would otherwise not have been able to find affordable accommodations in Ottawa to participate in this national celebration,” she said. The average rate for a unit on Airbnb over the July 1st weekend in 2017 was $93, which compares with an average rate of $153 per room at Ottawa-Gatineau hotels in the first quarter of that year.

Dagg also disagreed with the assertion that properties rented without a host on-site are most likely to result in violence or disruptive behaviour, though she did not provide data to back up her claim.

“We have a strong host community here who take a lot of responsibility over their property, whether they’re present or not present,” she said.

While Dagg said Airbnb wants to continue to be “partners” with the city, she stopped short of promising to provide data about properties on its platform. She said the company is currently doing this in Vancouver, where similar bylaws have been introduced, but its competitors – namely Expedia and Booking.com – have not made similar pledges, potentially giving them an unfair advantage. She said Airbnb wants an “equal regime,” but noted the city would not be in a legal position to require data-sharing from private companies.

“We can’t be the only platform continuing to provide data,” she said.

Dagg did offer to provide Kitchissippi Coun. Jeff Leiper, who is not on the committee but attended the meeting anyway, with data on the number of complaints Airbnb has received in Ottawa broken down by neighbourhood.

Whether or not city council moves ahead with the committee’s recommendations next week, staff will still be waiting for the resolution of an appeal against similar bylaws enacted in Toronto. If successful, a similar challenge could kill the hopes of such regulation of short-term rentals in Ottawa.

https://obj.ca/article/proposed-shor...uncil-approval

[J.OT13]

‘Room for a lot more buildings’ in booming Ottawa rental market

Despite a wave of new projects, local developers say they have no plans to scale back apartment construction in 2020 as demand for units continues to rise


David Sali
OBJ
January 13, 2020

After more than 30 years in the real estate business, Cuckoo Kochar doesn’t get fazed by much.

But even the founder of Phoenix Homes is raising his eyebrows at the dramatic spike in apartment rents in the National Capital Region over the past couple of years.

“This is Toronto territory,” he says, referring to the rents of up to $3 a square foot that high-end units in the city’s central core are now fetching. “We never thought Ottawa would get up there, but it did.”

In a coincidence the veteran property developer could probably appreciate, on the same mid-December day Kochar spoke to OBJ, apartment rental search website PadMapper released a year-end report that dramatically illustrated his point.

One of the study’s key findings: although Ottawa ranked seventh among major Canadian cities in median rents for one- and two-bedroom apartments in 2019, it saw the third-highest year-over-year increase in one-bedroom rents at 15.2 per cent.

The median price of a one-bedroom flat in Ottawa now stands at $1,440, with a two-bedroom unit going for $1,790 ​– up 14.7 per cent over 2018.



And Kochar says any would-be tenants hoping the market will cool off in 2020 are going to be sorely disappointed.

“The demand for rentals is just not ending,” he says. “It’s just not gonna happen.”

Real estate experts say the capital’s frothy rental market can be attributed to a number of factors.

A region with a booming tech scene and an unemployment rate below five per cent is drawing an influx of well-paid itinerant workers who prefer to rent rather than buy, they note. Meanwhile, more and more aging empty-nesters are selling their homes and opting to move into apartment buildings, where a growing number of their neighbours are millennials who can’t afford the down payment for a home in the capital’s equally robust housing market.

“Which young couple has $25,000 in savings?” Kochar asks. “It just isn’t there. What choice do they have? They’ll go and rent.”

With all those groups now vying for space in an apartment universe that’s grown by only a few thousand units over the past two decades, it’s no wonder many apartment buildings are practically bursting at the seams.

Ottawa’s rental vacancy rate, which sat at 1.6 per cent last year, is expected to remain below two per cent until at least 2022, according to a recent report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.

“This has been a slow burn to the point where it’s becoming a real issue in terms of availability,” explains Hugh Gorman, CEO of Ottawa-based real estate investment and management firm Colonnade BridgePort. “There’s going to need to be some significant new supply to kind of deal with the pent-up demand.”

Now, Ottawa’s builders are in overdrive trying to make up for lost time. Developers launched nearly 2,300 new apartment starts in 2019 through the end of November, CMHC says, following a 2018 that saw them begin work on almost 2,500 new units.





The capital hasn’t seen a frenzy of new apartment construction like that in decades, but many industry veterans say they don’t see any slowdown in sight for the foreseeable future.

Even the addition of a couple thousand units to the city’s stock of roughly 70,000 purpose-built apartments still equates to a bump of less than two per cent, notes Burlington-based rental industry consultant Derek Lobo. And that’s not counting the tens of thousands of households in the so-called “shadow market” that are renting investment condos or basement apartments in houses, he adds.

“By national standards, Ottawa is not overbuilt,” says Lobo, whose brokerage, SVN Rock Advisors, has worked with a number of builders on local rental projects. “There’s room for a lot more buildings.”

Still, adding to the city’s apartment stock requires a bit of a balancing act on the part of developers.

It takes time for tenants to relocate from existing units, meaning builders are constantly trying to ensure they’re rolling out enough new inventory to meet demand while at the same time guarding against flooding the market with too much new product all at once.

In addition, the entire construction cycle, from initial public consultations to rezoning approvals to ultimate completion, often takes four years or more. Market conditions can change significantly in that length of time.

Developers keep a close watch on other companies’ projects and employ teams of analysts who constantly monitor trends such as population growth, job creation, income levels, transit ridership and changes in a city’s demographics, explains Fred Waks, CEO of Trinity Development Group.

Ottawa's apartment vacancy rate
10-year average:
2.21%

Five-year average:
2.72%

2018:
1.60%

Source: CMHC

Trinity’s analysts have been busy lately – the Toronto-based builder currently has more than 2,300 units under construction or planned for a handful of sites in the nation’s capital, mostly near stations on the new Confederation light-rail line and the soon-to-be-expanded Trillium Line. The crown jewel of the bunch is 900 Albert St., where Trinity expects to break ground this spring on three mixed-use highrises that will feature about 1,300 rental units. Waks is confident the project’s prime location steps away from the junction of the city’s two LRT lines will make it a hit with tenants.

“That’s our biggest exposure, and I’m not worried about it,” he says. “I think that as in all real estate, the best location’s a win in terms of absorption. I would say to you that 900 Albert is the best location in Ottawa for what we’re doing.”

Waks says Trinity is being careful to phase in its developments over a period of several years.

Next in the queue after 900 Albert will be a 745-unit apartment complex a few hundred metres south at the corner of Gladstone and Loretta avenues, near the future Gladstone LRT station. That project likely won’t get going for at least a couple more years, he says.

“If I was to bring out Loretta and Gladstone at the exact same time as 900 (Albert), that would be a foolish endeavour,” Waks says. “You have to manage absorption.”

Gorman, whose firm has two new buildings set to open in Hintonburg and Westboro this year as well as five more projects in its development pipeline, agrees.

“Ottawa is not a market where you build 800 or a thousand units at once,” he says. “You’re always worried about the supply side and throwing the market out of equilibrium. We’re always trying to make sure that we try and get out in front of the curve in terms of development in specific nodes.”

Gorman says knowing when to pull the trigger on a new project is always a bit of a guessing game. Success is never a sure thing, and even a plan that seems like a slam-dunk today could end up on the back burner tomorrow if the economy tanks or financing falls through.

“Certainly, we’re always watching that supply,” he says. “It’s our hope that everybody else is too. It’s not a perfect science by any stretch of the imagination. There’s lots of projects that may or may not get built. Even though people are going through a rezoning process, it doesn’t necessarily mean that they’re going to construct. It’s something that we pay extremely close attention to.”

Most builders, however, believe new rental projects will continue to flourish well into the next decade.

Claridge Homes vice-president Neil Malhotra agrees with many of his industry colleagues in arguing that the market is still “underserved.” His family-owned company is planning to build about 1,200 apartment units at several locations in the downtown core over the next four to five years, a schedule he says he’s comfortable with.

“This is stuff we’ve been working on for years,” he notes. “What does the future look like? I don’t know if anyone can say we’re going to see thousands and thousands of units built every year. There’s an immediate need, and the market will at some point reach that equilibrium. Is it in the next year or two? No, because things are a little crazy out there right now on the demand side, and it takes a long time to get these things up and running.”

But the construction boom has downsides for builders too. A scarcity of development-ready land has driven up prices from about $20 a square foot two or three years ago to around $60 today. Meanwhile, labour costs have jumped nearly 25 per cent over that span due to a shortage of skilled tradespeople.

“Every line item adds up to something,” Waks says.

Still, finding partners willing to help foot the bill for new projects might be easier than ever, industry insiders say. Institutional investors such as pension funds view apartment buildings as ideal vehicles for stable, long-term returns, and many of them are more than happy to grab a stake in such projects.

“As an asset class, it’s kind of the golden child right now,” Gorman says. “From the equity side, there’s lots of capital flowing into the market.

“That’s a bit of a concern for us, to be totally blunt,” he adds, explaining that “too much inexpensive capital flowing into the market without a ton of discipline” can eventually lead to overbuilding and a glut of inventory.

Undaunted, Lobo says the city’s rental universe still has plenty of room to grow.

“It’s not like Ottawa has too many apartments already,” he reiterates. “On top of that, you add some of the strongest income in Canada, strong job growth, strong employment, low vacancy. Ottawa’s attractive.”

Rental density by market (2018)

• Apartment units per 100 people:
• Montreal: 24.8
• Halifax: 14.9
• Toronto: 9.7
• Vancouver: 9.1
• Winnipeg: 8.4
• Ottawa: 7.4
• Edmonton: 6.7
• Regina: 6.2
• Calgary: 3.1
• St. John's: 1.7

https://obj.ca/article/room-lot-more...-rental-market

Source: SVN Rock Advisors

[J.OT13]

Ottawa multi-family market sees $587M worth of transactions in 2019: Colliers

OBJ
February 24, 2020

Activity in Ottawa’s multi-family residential market continues to heat up along the light-rail transit line, according to a new report from Colliers International.

Some $587 million worth of multi-family property changed hands over the course of 2019, the real estate services firm said in a recent report focused on Ottawa’s apartment, condo and multi-family development markets.

Among last year’s blockbuster transactions, Colliers highlighted major purchases from Starlight Investments, which bought up more than 1,000 units for a total of $236.3 million across three transactions in 2019. The average transaction last year was worth roughly $9.8 million, Colliers said, with costs working out to $228,967 per door.

Colliers wrote in the report that the push to increase density along Ottawa’s LRT line, combined with steady public sector employment, has driven fervent interest in the city’s multi-family market.

Ottawa’s builders are also keen to take advantage of the swelling interest in the sector. Colliers reported there are currently 4,900 multi-family units under construction with 10,300 more planned. Of the planned new supply, 78 per cent is slated for rental use.

Meanwhile, vacancies in the multi-family market remain tight. The vacancy rate for bachelor units sat at 1.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2019, down from 1.6 per cent the year before. Available two-bedroom suites are also getting snapped up quickly with that segment of the market posting a vacancy rate of 1.8 per cent, down from 2.1 per cent in 2018. The vacancy rate for one-bedroom units, meanwhile, loosened slightly, increasing to 1.5 per cent from 1.4 per cent a year ago.

Renters are paying more for those one-bed suites, however, as average rental rates sat just under $1,600 in Q4 2019, up 7.4 per cent year-over-year. The average rent for two-bedroom units was steady around $2,000 at the end of 2019.

https://obj.ca/article/ottawa-multi-...-2019-colliers

[Harley613]

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ottawa-the...tudy-1.4820839

Ottawa the top destination for moving millennials: study
Ted Raymond
CTVNewsOttawa.ca Reporter
@TedFriendlyGuy Contact

Published Thursday, February 20, 2020 5:09PM EST
Last Updated Friday, February 21, 2020 8:16AM EST
Homebuyers getting more attracted to Ottawa

OTTAWA -- A new study by Ryerson University suggests millennials are choosing Ottawa over larger cities like Toronto and Vancouver.

The report by the Centre for Urban Research and Land Development, released Thursday, says millennials—i.e. those aged 23 to 38 as of mid-2019—are now the largest demographic cohort in Canada. There are more than nine million millennials living in Canada today.

According to the study, Ottawa was the number one destination for Canadian millennials moving within Canada. The city saw a net gain of 3,099 millennials between July 2018 and July 2019, largely driven by migration between provinces.


Related Links
Ryerson University Study: Where Are All the Canadian Millennials Moving to?
More than 5,000 millennials moved out of Toronto in that same period. Montreal lost more than 9000 millennials.

Senior Researcher Diana Petramala told Newstalk 580 CFRA’s Ottawa Now with Kristy Cameron, Ottawa has a couple of big advantages that are attractive to the millennial set.

“One: housing affordability really does drive a lot of these migration flows, particularly out of expensive cities like Toronto and Vancouver,” she said. “Two: Ottawa has the best performing labour market across the country.”

According to Statistics Canada’s Labour Force Survey, the unemployment rate in Ottawa was 4.2 per cent in January (4.3 per cent for Ottawa and Gatineau combined), which outperforms nearly all other major metropolitan areas in Canada except Quebec City, at 4.1 per cent, and Victoria, at 3.5 per cent.

Petramala said other areas in Ontario, like Simcoe County, the Durham region, and Kitchener-Waterloo are also proving attractive to millennials, but Ottawa’s strong labour market could keep members of the cohort moving here for many years.

“As long as Ottawa’s job performance continues to outperform the rest of the country, I think this trend can continue,” Petramala said. “These cycles tend to last between five and ten years.”

Many of the millennials moving to Ottawa are over the age of 25, Petramala said, meaning they’re looking for jobs and housing, and aren’t necessarily students.

“I think rental is still quite expensive in Ottawa, but if you’re looking for ownership, it’s quite affordable,” she said.

That affordability can also extend to office space, which can help the job market, too.

“Ottawa’s quite attractive, it’s got a good labour force, and businesses could potentially want to continue to locate in an area like Ottawa where they can find relatively affordable office space,” Petramala said.

[LeadingEdgeBoomer]

The price of homes seem to be really rising. I live in and own a condo townhouse. Two units in my complex went up for sale in the last three weeks. Both sold in less than a week and both went for $50,000 above the asking price.

[phil235]

Originally Posted by LeadingEdgeBoomer

The price of homes seem to be really rising. I live in and own a condo townhouse. Two units in my complex went up for sale in the last three weeks. Both sold in less than a week and both went for $50,000 above the asking price.

We’ll see how the current economic shock affects that. I doubt we’ll be back to normal for at least a few months.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by phil235

We’ll see how the current economic shock affects that. I doubt we’ll be back to normal for at least a few months.

In Ottawa’s case, it could depend on whether the coming economic train wreck leads the GofC to expand or retrench.

[Marcus CLS]

Latest CMHC data for February 2020 indicates 69 completed but unabsorbed condo/ Apartment units, new construction. In 2016 it was 699. This might explain why Claridge Moon, Royal and Richcraft Charlotte are going forward. The CMHC numbers do not disinguish between condo or rental

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

In Ottawa’s case, it could depend on whether the coming economic train wreck leads the GofC to expand or retrench.

It's not looking very good on that front. All straight cash out the door. I wonder when a pay cut and hiring freeze will enter discussions. Even a whisper or that could drastically change the mood. Even this springs hiring freeze will hurt the Condo rental market and therefore the condo sale market to some extent.

[OTSkyline]

The "good" news about Corona is that it is affecting the entire world, and some parts more than others. Therefore owners can't easily "sell" in Ottawa at a discount to pick and move to rosier area, most places will be going through the same pressures.

What I think will happen is the markets will just "freeze" for a few months, little sales and little purchases while everyone takes a breather. Supply and demand will both decrease significantly until this goes away and life goes back to "normal".

[kwoldtimer]

Based on the place that's for sale in my neighbourhood that has not sold (two weeks of "coming soon" and now a week on the market), I'm thinking that the local market is effectively frozen, or nearly so. This is a place that would likely, until recently and despite the ambitious asking price, have attracted multiple offers and sold in one day. It has been interesting to see a couple of agents wandering through and around the place, holding their laptops up and given clients a "virtual viewing". I'm not sure I could buy a place without actually stepping inside.

The sellers have bought another home and, interestingly, the sellers of that place have let it be known that the closing date can be pushed back, if necessary. I guess they fear that the sale might otherwise fall through.

Not at all the market that we've gotten used to this last couple of years ....

[YOWflier]

Interestingly, I know 2 people who just bought in the last week, one for 750K and another for 1.2M.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by ac888yow

Interestingly, I know 2 people who just bought in the last week, one for 750K and another for 1.2M.

Wow, maybe there's life out there after all. I don't know how big a factor it is, but the May - August period usually sees a bit of buying activity from government people returning from stints overseas and from military people being transferred to Ottawa, no?

[YOWflier]

Key word is "some". The market has definitely geared down a couple of speeds and will stay that way for a while.

[CityTech]

The rental vacancy rate might skyrocket as demand shrinks due to decreased migration and the collapse of the airbnb economy. Lots of airbnb investor owners in particular will likely be forced into the conventional rental market and if they're over-leveraged, might even be forced to sell. Lots of people were fed the song and dance about how it's supposedly impossible for real estate to go down, wonder how many borrowed up to their eyeballs to buy up investment properties. As harsh at it sounds, I don't much sympathy for those people.

[MattRichling]

Thought you might all find this interesting... Apologies if it does not belong. I can remove it.

This month we felt like that our normal monthly data was already out of date and did not provide an accurate picture of what we are seeing in the trenches. I have been breaking down the data of what we are seeing for sold properties, new listings, etc. for residential freehold and condo. If there is something you want specifically, let me know and I can add it in. I am updating the data daily, along with charts etc. (I can't seem to link dynamic charts here, I prefer to avoid doing screen shots since they are interactive - if there is a trick let me know)

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL POST

IN THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL (1ST-7TH):
- 194 residential freehold homes were sold in 2020 versus 415 in the same week of 2019. This is a difference of -53%

- 53 condominium properties were sold in 2020 versus 98 in the same week of 2019. This is a difference of -46%

- 450 residential freehold homes were listed in 2020 versus 906 in the same week of 2019. This is a difference of -50%

- 50 condominium apartment properties were listed in 2020 versus 79 in the same week of 2019. This is a difference of -37%

IN THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL (8-14TH):
- 127 residential freehold homes were sold in 2020 versus 455 in the same week of 2019. This is a difference of -71% ** Note this is changing daily

- 27 condominium properties were sold in 2020 versus 107 in the same week of 2019. This is a difference of -71% ** Note this is changing daily

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Wow, maybe there's life out there after all. I don't know how big a factor it is, but the May - August period usually sees a bit of buying activity from government people returning from stints overseas and from military people being transferred to Ottawa, no?

Military is drastically reducing and delaying their transfers this year.
In good news I guess that hundreds of people are back from overseas early. I am not sure if they are going back out and therefore won't buy or more will be working from here. They are sopping up some of the Airbnb inventory in the short term.

I think those looking for their dream house will take the slight discount they can get now and not worry too much.

The discount is so small it seems like a crazy time to be investing though. I was looking to buy a condo that would eventually be my retirement condo. I don't plan to do that now. Want to see what happens with the paying back all this debt first. It's also a horrible time to be a landlord even at the higher end where I would be looking.

[waterloowarrior]

Thanks for the post Matt! Moved it to the Ottawa Housing Market thread.

Housing starts are up significantly but will drop with the ban on new construction as of April 4.

2019 Jan-March - 1,146
2020 Jan-March - 1,679

(Ottawa CMA, Ontario side)

[Marcus CLS]

Originally Posted by Marcus CLS

Latest CMHC data for February 2020 indicates 69 completed but unabsorbed condo/ Apartment units, new construction. In 2016 it was 699. This might explain why Claridge Moon, Royal and Richcraft Charlotte are going forward. The CMHC numbers do not disinguish between condo or rental

March 2020 is down to 64. 353 for all types of units.

[rocketphish]

Finally, good news for renters as prices are expected to lead property decline
But COVID-19 disruptions in rental market could have wider effects on Canadian economy

Don Pittis · CBC News
Posted: Apr 20, 2020 4:00 AM ET | Last Updated: 11 hours ago

There is nothing so bad that it does not end up helping someone is the old saying, and while the COVID-19 outbreak is bad for pretty well everyone, long-suffering renters may finally get a break.

Newly unemployed gig workers and real estate investors will be collateral damage, but experts in the property market are already observing what may be an inflection point in a trend where rents have gobbled up an increasing share of young workers' incomes.

Already, there are early signs that while the supply of rental properties continues to grow, demand has slumped, even in Canada's hottest property markets, such as Vancouver and Toronto. And while the demand for housing will likely eventually resume its climb, there are reasons to expect the decline in rental prices will outlast the immediate economic effects of the coronavirus.

That's partly because the market was already showing signs of strain and was due for a readjustment. Like other sectors of Canadian real estate, the sudden economic downturn will expose faults in a rental market dependent on high levels of borrowed money.

The quote from world-famous investor Warren Buffett that "only when the tide goes out do you see who is swimming naked" may turn out to apply in this case.

A report on Friday from property analysts Urbanation showed that while the 2020 rental market started the year strong, there were already early signs of a slowdown in rental price increases. But with the arrival of COVID-19, that slowdown transformed into an absolute rental price dip.

"As demand fell faster than supply in the second half of March, rents experienced a slight decline," said the report. "The average monthly rent in the post-COVID-19 period decreased 0.7 per cent year-over-year."

People like Hilliard MacBeth, long-time financial analyst and author of When the Bubble Bursts, have repeatedly warned that the over-leveraged Canadian property market was merely waiting for something to prick it with dangerous results for the whole economy. The Bank of Canada has said stress testing has shown Canada's financial system can take the heat.

Nonetheless, a report last week by business news service Bloomberg that Canadian property — "once safer than gold" — is heading for a reckoning was widely retweeted and sent shivers through the real estate sector.

And it is clear that not just ordinary Canadians up to their eyes in debt from a mortgage on their own home are suffering. Banks have also been deferring the mortgage payments of rental property owners, prompting objections from those who blame short-term rentals, in particular, for soaring house prices and rents.

"Should someone with four properties really be granted financial assistance?" Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver real estate agent asked in the Bloomberg report.

There are plenty of signs that a plunge in tourism has already upset the shortest of rentals of the type offered by Airbnb hosts. And mortgage deferrals are not free money if the banks continue to charge interest on the amounts landlords invested in hope of earning a profit.

But one well-respected adviser to the private sector property market has warned that pain for landlords is not over.

"All this is going to hit the rental market first," says Ben Rabidoux, who runs North Cove Advisors, an information service for the professional residential real estate market. Of course, a warning to landlords of falling rents will be good news for renters.

In one respect, Rabidoux is far less gloomy than some about the home resale market overall, saying defaults remain unlikely so long as the economic meltdown caused by COVID-19 is less than six months.

But the real estate insider says there are strong signals that just as the supply of rental properties is hitting a peak, the number of people wanting to rent is falling.

The devastated Airbnb market, down about 95 per cent, is only part of it. Unemployed gig workers and students are moving in with relatives. Immigration has slowed to a trickle.

And Rabidoux's research shows that the influx of non-permanent residents, including foreign students and people on work permits to fill gaps in Canada's tight labour market, both of whom depend on the rental market and normally about 200,000-strong, has gone into reverse.

"We have a 50-year high in rental units under construction and a 50-year high in completions of those rental units coming online," says Rabidoux. That's over and above the current flood of condos built to sell to Canadians as rental investment properties. And once underway, he says, those projects will continue to inundate the market over a two-year timeline.

While people who have bought homes to live in them will be less affected, falling rental prices will inevitably impact other parts of the market, convincing some to rent rather than buy, said Rabidoux.

"You're going to see it bleed into the resale market three, six, nine months down the road," he said.

But for anyone renting, maybe now is the time to start shopping around.

Follow Don on Twitter @don_pittis

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ren...d-19-1.5536547