CHICAGO | Highrise Projects & Construction, v7

[HomrQT]

Originally Posted by rgarri4

Hey everyone.
This is my first post, but like many I've been a follower for years now. I'm an Architect as well as co-owner of a rendering studio in Chicago.

Anyways for fun I've been compiling a 3d model of Chicago and updating it with all the purposed and under construction skyscrapers. I use it to visualize how all these new towers will have an impact on the skyline. I know...I'm a bit of a dork, but I figured most people here could relate. I still have a ton of proposals to add but here are a couple views. Let me know if there are another views or proposals you'd like to see and ill gladly share them.

This is easily one of the best introductory posts I've seen on this site. Good deal, can't wait to see more.

[left of center]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Another high-rise in River West

Milwaukee & Carpenter | 266 ft | 226 units | 97 parking | office + retail

https://chicago.legistar.com/Legisla...vanced&Search=

Unbelievable. When it rains it pours

[eaguir3]

I’ve literally given up keeping track of this boom. I just walk by these buildings like “oh yeah, I forgot they were building this”. 😂

[marothisu]

NICE. Kind of sad they couldn't get that surface lot nearby but oh well. ..Pretty good density too.

[10023]

Originally Posted by eaguir3

I’ve literally given up keeping track of this boom. I just walk by these buildings like “oh yeah, I forgot they were building this”. 😂

That's what almost a decade of zero interest rates and quantitative easing gets you. There's a lot of money sloshing around out there.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by 10023

That's what almost a decade of zero interest rates and quantitative easing gets you. There's a lot of money sloshing around out there.

I've heard this a lot from various quarters for almost a decade. I don't know enough myself to say for sure how QE has affected investments in real estate. But I do know that people who have said, "This is probably because of QE. Here is my prediction about what else it going to happen soon", those people are batting about 0.025 on prediction accuracy. Which makes me less confident about the rest of their claims about what QE is and is not responsible for.

I think in most cases, the solution that depends on the least number of speculative assumptions is usually the correct one. In Chicago, we have a high amount of demand due to a rapidly growing educated population and a new TOD ordinance that makes some of these lots near L-stations newly profitable to build on. I think that in the absence of a financial crisis or recession, supply would be created to meet this demand no matter what.

[Near North Resident]

Originally Posted by 10023

That's what almost a decade of zero interest rates and quantitative easing gets you. There's a lot of money sloshing around out there.

also there was about 3-5 years where they built literally nothing so lots of pent up demand and easy money = boom

[maru2501]

wow, thanks rgarri4

and that holy name tower would really thicken things up. too bad it probably won't happen

[emathias]

Originally Posted by marothisu

NICE. Kind of sad they couldn't get that surface lot nearby but oh well. ..Pretty good density too.

The one north of it? I think it is included. It's a little unclear, but I think it is included - at least a significant part of it.

Or do you mean the one in the triangle across Carpenter? It would be interesting to see how that triangle might ever be developed. Looks to be around 8,000 square feet, albeit in an awkward shape.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by Randomguy34

Another high-rise in River West

Milwaukee & Carpenter | 266 ft | 226 units | 97 parking | office + retail

https://chicago.legistar.com/Legisla...vanced&Search=

Here is the view from above and the first floor plan.





looks like the existing L shaped 4 story office building would be trimmed back to the shape of a square to create more room.


https://chicago.curbed.com/2017/10/1...ukee-carpenter

[Jibba]

Originally Posted by emathias

The one north of it? I think it is included. It's a little unclear, but I think it is included - at least a significant part of it.

Or do you mean the one in the triangle across Carpenter? It would be interesting to see how that triangle might ever be developed. Looks to be around 8,000 square feet, albeit in an awkward shape.

The Milwaukee frontage is marked out as 100', which would I would think would be nearly the whole thing.

The "translucent fritted glass" sounds promising (better than black or reflective), but man those are some beefy piers and big apertures at the base...

[Via Chicago]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

I've heard this a lot from various quarters for almost a decade. I don't know enough myself to say for sure how QE has affected investments in real estate. But I do know that people who have said, "This is probably because of QE. Here is my prediction about what else it going to happen soon", those people are batting about 0.025 on prediction accuracy. Which makes me less confident about the rest of their claims about what QE is and is not responsible for.

I think in most cases, the solution that depends on the least number of speculative assumptions is usually the correct one. In Chicago, we have a high amount of demand due to a rapidly growing educated population and a new TOD ordinance that makes some of these lots near L-stations newly profitable to build on. I think that in the absence of a financial crisis or recession, supply would be created to meet this demand no matter what.

With inequality at an all time high, rich people have too much money and too few things that are actually worth buying. So anything that is perceived as potentially valuable rises in price, mainly equities and real estate. Equities, bonds, and real estate are already expensive compared to traditional valuations, and all at the same time, while reported inflation has remained low. this is not typical. we've also never had a period where interest rates have remained so low for so long. we dont have history to go off for the impact this might potentially have.

For the average person, wages have remained stagnant for 20 years. Taxes, healthcare, housing, college costs, utilities have all continued to rise. Over 50% Americans don't have $500 for an emergency. When it's normal for "middle class" families to pay thousands of dollars per month for healthcare, the entire system isn't far away from collapse.

Right now everybody wants to buy riskier assets. You've got people throwing life savings into highly speculative crypto-currencies. Theres an entire generation that knows nothing other than an uninterrupted 9 year bull market. "this time is different!"

Which is not to say it will come crashing down tomorrow. No one can say that. it keeps going until it dosent.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by Via Chicago

Right now everybody wants to buy riskier assets. You've got people throwing life savings into highly speculative crypto-currencies. Theres an entire generation that knows nothing other than an uninterrupted 9 year bull market. "this time is different!"

I hear you. And I don't necessarily disagree with much of what you wrote. However, I'm not certain that the buildings going up in this boom are part of some sort of market distortion or an emergent property of some other policy. I'm not sure the last boom in Chicago was either. Absent the artificial *lack* of money available for lending after the crisis, I'm not sure we would have been overbuilt at all. Sometimes development happens because there's demand for it. I feel that especially in finance and macro economics people create a lot of ad hoc and just-so stories to fit what they see. As I said, I'm just a bit skeptical that loose monetary policy is a major contributor to this boom since so many of the people who have been complaining about loose monetary policy have been really, really wrong. My knowledge of finance is at the level of a well informed novice. But you don't need to be an ichthyologist to know when a fish smells.

[10023]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

I've heard this a lot from various quarters for almost a decade. I don't know enough myself to say for sure how QE has affected investments in real estate. But I do know that people who have said, "This is probably because of QE. Here is my prediction about what else it going to happen soon", those people are batting about 0.025 on prediction accuracy. Which makes me less confident about the rest of their claims about what QE is and is not responsible for.

I think in most cases, the solution that depends on the least number of speculative assumptions is usually the correct one. In Chicago, we have a high amount of demand due to a rapidly growing educated population and a new TOD ordinance that makes some of these lots near L-stations newly profitable to build on. I think that in the absence of a financial crisis or recession, supply would be created to meet this demand no matter what.

Just because people haven't been proven right yet doesn't mean they're not right. It was the same story before the last crash.

A lot of investments are profitable when you're using free money...

[harryc]

Oct 5

[harryc]

Oct 4

[harryc]

Oct 4

[Khantilever]

Originally Posted by 10023

That's what almost a decade of zero interest rates and quantitative easing gets you. There's a lot of money sloshing around out there.

Yeah, but the Fed's actions are to get the economy back on its "normal" track. So, fine, we can attribute a lot of investment activity to low interest rates and QE (the latter simply being the way to get low interest rates). But the idea is that we get the "normal" (i.e., steady state) amount of investment by doing this, so really it's still the fundamentals that are driving this development.

That's why the boom is still going as the Fed tapers off QE, and the only people who think the end of QE will lead to a bust are those who think the Fed overdid it and took the economy beyond the steady state. Those people are in the minority, btw.

[10023]

Originally Posted by Khantilever

Yeah, but the Fed's actions are to get the economy back on its "normal" track. So, fine, we can attribute a lot of investment activity to low interest rates and QE (the latter simply being the way to get low interest rates). But the idea is that we get the "normal" (i.e., steady state) amount of investment by doing this, so really it's still the fundamentals that are driving this development.

That's why the boom is still going as the Fed tapers off QE, and the only people who think the end of QE will lead to a bust are those who think the Fed overdid it and took the economy beyond the steady state. Those people are in the minority, btw.

Yeah, sure.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Via said rates have never been this low for this long. Slight correction, rates have literally never been this low, even after 4 rate increases we are still at levels that have literally never been tested. That's not to mention QE being a financial trick that was made up on the fly and has also never been tested before.

The Bears are ALWAYS wrong... Until they aren't.

The Fed has no idea what they just did and now they are puzzled as to why the economy isn't responding the same way that it does when they used to raise rates. Hint: nothing has been the same since the crash and it certainly won't be the same when it comes to monetary policy. My prediction is that lowering rates below a certain point actually starts to slow the economy as spreads are compressed and the general yields brought by risk taking are also squeezed discouraging small business formation and other types of positive risk taking.

Every time the market anticipates a rate hike financial conditions have tightened as you would expect and as you are taught in business school. But every time the rate hikes have actually occurred financial conditions have actually loosened which is the exact opposite of what econ 101 would teach you. This lines up perfectly with my theory that rate cuts start to slow the economy below a certain level. Now until that level is reached rate increases should actually ease monetary conditions as spreads in the US decompress and suck all the money sitting in f500 overseas accounts or foreign governments currency reserves back into the United States seeking those improved yields.

Of course the Fed is totally oblivious to this and scratches their heads at every monthly meeting about the missing inflation. The longer they hold off on rate hikes the longer the inflation will be missing, stockpiling overseas just waiting for the signal to flood back in and touch off runaway inflation once the Fed has unwound the policies preventing it.

There are a lot of people starting to get complacent, it's only a matter of time before we hear a loud popping sound.