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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2022, 6:32 PM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
I would think San Marcos would have to become a big city. Then it would be the Austin-San Marcos-San Antonio megalopolis.

Maybe they could start building a high-rise district just south of downtown San Marcos, probably around here. They could turn the railroad into a high-speed commuter railroad going in-between the 3 cities.
San Marcos is growing rapidly but would need to grow a lot more to pull in other nearby towns into its orbit and facilitate further development either direction along 35.
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2022, 6:42 PM
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there’s cleveland-akron-canton which is around 60 miles, or cleveland-youngstown-pittsburgh which is around double that.
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 5:51 AM
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Originally Posted by bdurk View Post
I'd say NYC to Philly is easily a metropolis. When I take the train to NYC from Philly there is at least 5 skylines in between. Start at Philly, Trenton is next. New Brunswick has a small skyline, then Newark, then Jersey City and NYC, which you could count as the same skyline I suppose.
I think megalopolis ("giant city") is the correct term for distinct metro areas that have grown together in their outer suburbs. The cores are distinct functional entities. These are separate cities joined by outer suburbs. Chicago and Milwaukee are separate functional entities with almost continuous settlement of smaller cities and suburbs between the two. Dallas and Ft. Worth are closer, and have more functional connections, including a huge airport. So they are a metroplex. Baltimore and Washington might be too. Los Angeles and San Diego metros would have continuous settlement between them but for the open space of Camp Pendleton. But even if so, LA and SD are separate entities. NYC and Philadelphia are separate functional entities, even though there is almost continuous settlement between the two. Where one begins and the other ends would be the 50% commute and/or job line. NYC/Phil. metro influence boundary is where half of the residents are pulled to each city by jobs or commutes or shopping or entertainment. It is a hazy boundary. Move a bit closer to NYC, and in general more people go there for jobs and other things. Move the other way, and more go to Philly. Because NYC is much larger, the influence area extends over a wider area than Philly. So the 50% boundary is probably a greater distance from NYC than Philly. Maybe near Princeton on one axis? Similarly, the influence area of Chicago goes out farther than Milwaukee, perhaps to the state line or even a bit north. Kenosha?

Last edited by CaliNative; Oct 2, 2022 at 6:29 AM.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 6:33 AM
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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 3:59 PM
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Originally Posted by CaliNative View Post
I think megalopolis ("giant city") is the correct term for distinct metro areas that have grown together in their outer suburbs. The cores are distinct functional entities. These are separate cities joined by outer suburbs. Chicago and Milwaukee are separate functional entities with almost continuous settlement of smaller cities and suburbs between the two. Dallas and Ft. Worth are closer, and have more functional connections, including a huge airport. So they are a metroplex. Baltimore and Washington might be too. Los Angeles and San Diego metros would have continuous settlement between them but for the open space of Camp Pendleton. But even if so, LA and SD are separate entities. NYC and Philadelphia are separate functional entities, even though there is almost continuous settlement between the two. Where one begins and the other ends would be the 50% commute and/or job line. NYC/Phil. metro influence boundary is where half of the residents are pulled to each city by jobs or commutes or shopping or entertainment. It is a hazy boundary. Move a bit closer to NYC, and in general more people go there for jobs and other things. Move the other way, and more go to Philly. Because NYC is much larger, the influence area extends over a wider area than Philly. So the 50% boundary is probably a greater distance from NYC than Philly. Maybe near Princeton on one axis? Similarly, the influence area of Chicago goes out farther than Milwaukee, perhaps to the state line or even a bit north. Kenosha?
Maybe we should call NY-Philadelphia a single conurbation?
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  #46  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 4:28 PM
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boston has interesting and straightforward umm, cornubations fanning off of it. boston-providence; boston-springfield; boston-concord; & boston-portland (augusta? bangor?).
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  #47  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 5:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy View Post
You forgot precipitous decline due to an uninhabitable climate with sustained triple digit temps in summertime.
There are no credible predictions or projections that predict such things as “uninhabitable” Texas. (Not to mention sustained triple digits is common all around the equator and in deserts all over the world)

If you are reading something that says something as hyperbolic as “Texas will be uninhabitable” or “Florida will stop existing” you are reading hyperbolic nonsense that no real climate scientist has ever said would happen.

If global warming was so dire that huge swaths of the planet were to be uninhabitable over the next few decades it’s already over for you. You’d be talking ecosystem collapse, mass die offs and wide spread starvation.

If you think that’s what’s happening why are you casually posting online why aren’t you homesteading in northern Canada trying to outrun the literal end of modern civilization?
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  #48  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 6:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Don't Be That Guy View Post
You forgot precipitous decline due to an uninhabitable climate with sustained triple digit temps in summertime.
The Middle East has entered the chat...
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  #49  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 6:42 PM
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Philadelphia is too large, old, established, economically self-sufficient, and culturally distinct to ever “belong” to NYC even in a connotative sense, much less formally.

Chicago and Milwaukee share a similar dynamic, but Philly is much more able to hold its own against NYC, being that it’s the primary city in a much larger and quite frankly more important state (the PA portion of Philly CSA accounts for 36% of the state population). I also think having DC-Baltimore to the south helps Philly’s case for independence as a sort of “crossroads” of the heart of the NE corridor (apologies to Boston).

Tilting the north-south axis, 6.27 million Delaware Valley residents (Philly CSA) live at or below Philadelphia city/County’s northernmost boundary; only Bucks and Burlington Counties are excluded. But most of Burlington County lives below this threshold, so the number is really closer to around 6.6 million. South Philly and the stadia complex, airport, and Wilmington give Philadelphia city a southern tilt; West Philly, UPenn, Main Line suburbs, and Reading a western tilt; and South Jersey with its 1.875 million residents (two-thirds living in Camden, Burlington, and Gloucester) provides balance to the east. Bucks County plus the 50/50 counties of Mercer and Hunterdon combined have a smaller population than Camden, Burlington, and Gloucester combined.

All of this is to say that Philly is easily its own entity. Mercer County is the only real overlap with NYC. Otherwise, sparse Hunterdon provides a good-sized buffer, and demarcating North and South Jersey is pretty easy. There aren’t any major population centers in South Jersey that border Ocean and Monmouth Counties; most of populated South Jersey lies directly across the Delaware River from Philly.
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Last edited by Quixote; Oct 2, 2022 at 6:53 PM.
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  #50  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2022, 9:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Quixote View Post
Philadelphia is too large, old, established, economically self-sufficient, and culturally distinct to ever “belong” to NYC even in a connotative sense, much less formally.

Chicago and Milwaukee share a similar dynamic, but Philly is much more able to hold its own against NYC, being that it’s the primary city in a much larger and quite frankly more important state (the PA portion of Philly CSA accounts for 36% of the state population).
Philly is obviously a much bigger and more major city than Milwaukee, but Milwaukee still remarkably holds its own as a very culturally distinct place from Chicago.

The whole state line and bears/packers thing really keep the two peoples pretty separate from each other in a mindset sense, ie. "Cheesheads vs. FIBs". We are not the same tribe.

The biggest impact that Milwaukee's proximity to Chicago has on the city is probably all of the bleed in air travel passengers who skip past MKE and drive down I-94 to take advantage of ORD's cheaper fares, scheduling flexibility, and gigantically longer list of non-stop destinations.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 2, 2022 at 11:03 PM.
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2022, 7:28 AM
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CSA is definitely possible. There's a -10 minute stretch of empty land and there's a 6000 unit community U/C in that gap. Miami-Palm Beach is slightly further than downtown SA to Austin and that's an MSA.

I have a hard time seeing Temple/Belton merging with Austin anytime soon. There's just so much land between there and Georgetown.
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  #52  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2022, 2:16 PM
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Originally Posted by theOGalexd View Post
Miami-Palm Beach is slightly further than downtown SA to Austin.
they're similar distances, but the latter is actually slightly further.


as the crow flies:

downtown miami to downtown west palm beach: 65 miles

downtown austin to downtown san antonio: 73 miles
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  #53  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2022, 2:21 PM
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Right, but Miami to Palm Beach is a bit different. That's a narrow, linear region that's had dense, contiguous development for at least a generation or two. Quite distinct from two separate metros that happen to have some sprawl potentially converging at a few highway exits.
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  #54  
Old Posted Oct 5, 2022, 2:29 PM
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Right, but Miami to Palm Beach is a bit different. That's a narrow, linear region that's had dense, contiguous development for at least a generation or two. Quite distinct from two separate metros that happen to have some sprawl potentially converging at a few highway exits.
of course.

i was simply correcting the distances.

the south florida MSA is an entirely different animal in that it is one of the most land-constricted major metros in the nation, squeezed onto a relatively thin little strip of land smooshed between the atlantic ocean to the east and the everglades to the west.

central texas has no such land constraints.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 5, 2022 at 3:34 PM.
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  #55  
Old Posted Oct 6, 2022, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
of course.

i was simply correcting the distances.

the south florida MSA is an entirely different animal in that it is one of the most land-constricted major metros in the nation, squeezed onto a relatively thin little strip of land smooshed between the atlantic ocean to the east and the everglades to the west.

central texas has no such land constraints.
This is actually a misconception. Most of the Texas Hill Country between the two cities is preserved by a complicated system of parkland and reserves owned and managed by multiple levels of government (including Balcones Canyonlands National Wildlife Refuge, about 1/5 of Travis County) as well as conservation agreements by multiple major property owners managed by a collection of local nonprofits as well as easements placed into property owners directly by local governments. All of this stuff flies under the radar, but the practical effect has been to create a buffer skirting from San Antonios northwest side (Government Canyon State Natural Area) all the way thru Canyonlands out to Bend State Park.


The Violet Crown Trail system, part of this collection of parklands and preserves, is a nearly contiguous collection of (narrow but expanding) protected land between Austin and Sam Antonio a few miles west of Interstate 35 that acts as a barrier to denser development.

https://nri.tamu.edu/blog/2019/march...ents-in-texas/

Wish I had a better map to show you.

The same effect is starting to be felt on the east, with some of Texas’s only true grasslands and Lost Pines State Park, though it is less pronounced and not as far along. A second point about the east is that there are portions which are, despite being flat, not buildable at low cost due to the soft soil. These tend to be outer areas nearest the Colorado River. Hence why development never went east and went north and south instead where the limestone is much closer to the surface and can easily stabilize structures.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Right, but Miami to Palm Beach is a bit different. That's a narrow, linear region that's had dense, contiguous development for at least a generation or two. Quite distinct from two separate metros that happen to have some sprawl potentially converging at a few highway exits.
Maybe it isn’t as dense, but Austin and San Antonio are connected by comparatively less dense, but generationally present development. It just happens to be west of the interstate in towns like Canyon Lake, New Braunfels, Bulverde, Wimberley, Wood Creek, and Dripping Springs so not as visible or noticeable. The growth of these towns for the last 40 years is also what has fueled local conservation efforts to protect out water supply (it largely parallels the Edwards Aquifer recharge zone). There really is not much easily accessible land - though some - still developable outside of the Marble Falls area throughout the Hill Country, which is part of why development has shifted to the I-35 corridor.
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HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
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  #56  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 12:01 AM
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I would also add that the collection of Schertz, Selma, the parts of New Braunfels and San Marcos on I-35 are more than a few exits.

A few other points: Seguin (on I-10) and Lockhart (on 130) are also poised to help stitch the area together with subdevelopments. Neither corridors are too far removed from I-35 to keep them from doing so.

Lockhart, in particular, may actually end up being the industrial and business hub of the middleburbs, rather than San Marcos or New Braunfels despite being on 130. It just lost out on the multibillion dollar manufacturing plant by Samsung to Upstate NY, so it clearly wants to be the middleburbs’ answer to Taylor on the northside.
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HTOWN: 2305k (+10%) + MSA suburbs: 4818k (+26%) + CSA exurbs: 190k (+6%)
BIGD: 1304k (+9%) + MSA div. suburbs: 3826k (+26%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 394k (+8%)
FTW: 919k (+24%) + MSA div. suburbs: 1589k (+14%) + adj. CSA exurbs: 90k (+12%)
SATX: 1435k (+8%) + MSA suburbs: 1124k (+38%) + CSA exurbs: 18k (+11%)
ATX: 962k (+22%) + MSA suburbs: 1322k (+43%)
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  #57  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 2:41 PM
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This is actually a misconception.
perhaps there are some land constraints in the general austin/san antonio region, but you are not going to convince me that it is anything at all like the situation in south florida where nearly all 6M people are smooshed onto a long narrow strip of land that's only 10 - 15 miles wide and about 100 miles long, stuck between the planet's 2nd largest ocean and one of its largest wetlands.

the two geographies are not very comparable IMO.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Oct 7, 2022 at 2:52 PM.
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  #58  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 3:14 PM
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It's only 82 miles between Sacramento and San Francisco city limits...why not? Grab Stockton too, it's only 79 miles. Both already have significant commuter overlaps. That's what, another 3+ million for the Bay Area CSA?
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  #59  
Old Posted Oct 8, 2022, 6:54 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
ATX and SATX are too far from one another. Lots of new development along 35 but a lot of green nothingness too.

Agree 100%

Having lived in San Antonio, I just don’t see the “one metro”. San Antonio and Austin each have their own media markets, identities, cultures, industries, airports, etc.

Sacramento and Oakland/San Francisco are nearly the same distance as Austin and San Antonio with nearly same density of development along the highway corridors but MUCH better rail connections and yet the Sacramento and Bay Area metro areas are distinct. Both have their own media markets, identities, cultures and industries, airports, etc.
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  #60  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2022, 5:12 AM
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San Marcos is growing rapidly but would need to grow a lot more to pull in other nearby towns into its orbit and facilitate further development either direction along 35.
Yeah, those towns in between are still pretty small suburban areas and once you delve off the highway the development drops off.
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