CHICAGO | General Discussions

[VKChaz]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Ultimately 20% declines as happened to the black population between 2000-2010 are not a regular occurrence.

Looking back, the 2010 result was a perfect storm of easy home loans, a severe financial crisis and an imbalance of prices and employment opportunities vs the South. Not to mention, birth rate declines.

Chicago’s black population declined by 181453 or 17.22% for the 2010 census. To see a similar absolute population loss after 2020 would probably require East St. Louis (-31.6%) or bankrupt Detroit (-25.0%) failure of basic services which is not happening.

5-10% black population loss seems reasonable for the upcoming decade. Hopefully more integration in some neighborhoods should stem further losses.

Black population also dropped in NYC, by 4.5% or 84.4 thousand. That despite the large overall population increase. Some of those leaving NYC may have been priced out, but seems reasonable to think that with the natural national and suburban migration occurring, not even including other factors, some continued drop is likely.

[ChiMIchael]

Originally Posted by VKChaz

Black population also dropped in NYC, by 4.5% or 84.4 thousand. That despite the large overall population increase. Some of those leaving NYC may have been priced out, but seems reasonable to think that with the natural national and suburban migration occurring, not even including other factors, some continued drop is likely.

I wonder if immigration in taken into account. NYC is still going to be a major attraction for black creatives and professionals, but I also think it has the privilege of being bolstered by immigration.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Lets get real, Chicago is going to get blown away by Houston in population some day.

Houston doesn't have room to grow fast enough to "blow Chicago away". The city proper doesn't have the infrastructure to accommodate appreciable density. And the kind of growth suburban Houston is experiencing makes Vernon Hills or Mundelein seem like Paris. Adding a few more beltways surrounded by low quality housing isn't going to attract residents in and of itself. Right now, Houston depends on growth economics to keep growing. But in 20 years when the suburbs that were built in the late 80's are falling apart and need infrastructure replacement, they will need to increase their taxes. And the people who live there will decamp for some other sprawl on the edge of town, increasing the cost of living for everyone in the area while decreasing the appeal of the region without adding population. This happened to most legacy American cities already, but Houston doesn't have a core that can sustain it. There's no lofts or walkable areas in the center of the region that artists and start-ups can re-populate. Once part of Houston starts to rot, it's hard to see what keeps it from spreading. There's no natural beauty or cultural amenities or nice weather or urban charm in the area to slow the collapse. I've been there dozens of times and it's the only city I visit that I like less each time I go.

I suspect that the decline of the petrochemical industry alone in the next couple decades is going to hurt Houston's growth quite a bit. But it's easy to imagine a few summers with 115 degree heat and hurricanes in the autumn could be a historical turning point for the city the same way that the '68 riots were for Chicago, L.A. and Detroit.

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by Klippenstein

Oh! I just thought of something else. Could Chicago become a "megacity" by 2030? Possibly.

If my math is right Chicago MSA would need to grow by just under 4% in the next decade to reach that distinction. Seems possible especially since that was basically the growth rate between 2000-2010.

As sprawl continues west and south in Chicagoland, I can foresee the greater Rockford MSA being engulfed as part of the greater Chicago MSA. There's 330,000 people in that area, that's enough to put Chicagoland over 10 Million. Right now, the eastern part of Rockford/Belvidere is only 30 minutes/35 miles from Huntley, and even 10 minutes/10 miles less to Marengo. It's not out of the realm of possibilities...especially with additional growth after the next Reverse Migration back north when climate change engulfs most of the Gulf coast and FL, and the 135F average degree days make Phoenix unlivable, both in 2036

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by sentinel

As sprawl continues west and south in Chicagoland, I can foresee the greater Rockford MSA being engulfed as part of the greater Chicago MSA.

Except that sprawl to the west and northwest (the general direction to Rockford) largely ground to a halt last decade.

McHenry county only grew by +0.5%.

Kane county only grew by +0.2%.

And Dekalb and Boone counties actually LOST people, -4.5% and -1.3%, respectively.

On balance, that 4 county area between Chicagoland and Rockford lost a total of ~2,500 people!


Kendall county is the only exurban county that you could say saw moderate growth at +14.5%, but that's the wrong direction to get to Rockford.

[marothisu]

Seeing some interesting trends as I analyze the racial data by community area. Some of the north, NW, and west side areas that were very segregated are getting more integrated. Some are pretty damn segregated still but have gotten better statistically.

Now some of these on the west side you'd think percentage wise is because of the dwindling Black population. However, in Austin for example the Hispanic population there increased by over 113%. So really a factor of both. The Hispanic population in North Lawndale, Garfield Park, and Austin increased by a combined 13,394 people or +111%.

I'm not done analyzing yet but here's a few interesting ones. Kind of crazy to think about Austin and West Englewood both being nearly 20% Hispanic now. There's a lot I haven't analyzed yet, FYI

White non-Hispanic, decreasing
* Dunning: 70.38% --> 55.88%
* Clearing: 51.52% --> 35.81%
* Hegewisch: 44.93% --> 31.13%
* West Elsdon: 17.95% --> 10.54%
* Lincoln Park: 82.88% --> 77.14%
* Lake View: 80.37% --> 74.85%
* Forest Glen: 74.64% --> 68.32%
* West Lawn: 14.76% --> 8.48%
* Hyde Park: 46.7% --> 40.81%

White non-Hispanic, increasing
* Humboldt Park: 4.44% --> 8.81%
* Lower West Side: 12.43% --> 18.89%
* Avondale: 28.44% --> 36.66%

Hispanic, increasing
* West Englewood: 2.18% --> 19.67%
* Austin: 8.85% --> 19.25%
* Clearing: 45.31% --> 59.13%
* Fuller Park: 4.59% --> 15.91%
* Dunning: 23.84% --> 34.86%
* Chicago Lawn: 45.19% --> 58.91%
* New City: 57.31% --> 67.48%
* West Lawn: 79.96% --> 87.27%
* Hegewisch: 49.55% --> 57.7%
* North Lawndale: 5.97% --> 11.63%
* West Elsdon: 79.04% --> 84.51%
* West Garfield Park: 1.93% --> 6.64%
* Englewood: 1.06% --> 6.59%
* East Garfield Park: 4.13% --> 8.32%

Hispanic, decreasing
* Lower West Side: 82.43% --> 71.03%
* Avondale: 64.43% --> 52.32%
* McKinley Park: 64.76% --> 55.94%
* Bridgeport: 27.02% --> 21.95%

Black, increasing
* Hegewisch: 3.86% --> 8.75%
* West Ridge: 11.14% --> 13.59%
* Montclare: 4.45% --> 6.12%
* Lower West Side: 3.1% --> 4.57%
* Clearing: 1.22% --> 2.28%
* Dunning: 0.73% --> 1.89%

Black, decreasing
* West Englewood: 96.26% --> 77.28%
* Austin: 85.1% --> 74.58%
* Chicago Lawn: 49.26% --> 36.55%
* New City: 29.63% --> 18.79%
* North Lawndale: 91.43% --> 83.67%
* Englewood: 97.37% --> 90.04%
* East Garfield Park: 90.9% --> 83.44%
* West Garfield Park: 96.19% --> 89.51%

Asian, increasing
* McKinley Park: 15.66% --> 26.97%
* Bridgeport: 34.57% --> 42.11%
* Brighton Park: 4.96% --> 10.86%
* The Loop: 15.91% --> 20.68%
* Near South Side: 15.46% --> 20.08%
* Near West Side: 14.62% --> 18.77%
* Hyde Park: 12.4% --> 16.28%
* Archer Heights: 1.03% --> 4.3%

More to come at another time.

[pip]

^I love your number crunching. Keep it coming.

[Randomguy34]

Originally Posted by sentinel

As sprawl continues west and south in Chicagoland, I can foresee the greater Rockford MSA being engulfed as part of the greater Chicago MSA. There's 330,000 people in that area, that's enough to put Chicagoland over 10 Million. Right now, the eastern part of Rockford/Belvidere is only 30 minutes/35 miles from Huntley, and even 10 minutes/10 miles less to Marengo.

As of March, IDOT is still deciding if rail service to Rockford should be Metra or Amtrak. If it ends up being Metra, that could very well be the momentum to bring in the Rockford MSA. Also, double track upgrades on the SSL will speed the commute from South Bend to Chicago to only 90 minutes. That's the same amount of time as to Aurora, Elgin, and Joliet, despite South Bend being much farther. With Buttigieg as head of DOT, I can imagine earmarked funds to bring the SSL to downtown South Bend.

If Chicagoland is able to eventually stretch that far out, that's an additional 650,000 residents to the metro area for little work

[the urban politician]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Seeing some interesting trends as I analyze the racial data by community area. Some of the north, NW, and west side areas that were very segregated are getting more integrated. Some are pretty damn segregated still but have gotten better statistically.

Now some of these on the west side you'd think percentage wise is because of the dwindling Black population. However, in Austin for example the Hispanic population there increased by over 113%. So really a factor of both. The Hispanic population in North Lawndale, Garfield Park, and Austin increased by a combined 13,394 people or +111%.

I'm not done analyzing yet but here's a few interesting ones. Kind of crazy to think about Austin and West Englewood both being nearly 20% Hispanic now. There's a lot I haven't analyzed yet, FYI

White non-Hispanic, decreasing
* Dunning: 70.38% --> 55.88%
* Clearing: 51.52% --> 35.81%
* Hegewisch: 44.93% --> 31.13%
* West Elsdon: 17.95% --> 10.54%
* Lincoln Park: 82.88% --> 77.14%
* Lake View: 80.37% --> 74.85%
* Forest Glen: 74.64% --> 68.32%
* West Lawn: 14.76% --> 8.48%
* Hyde Park: 46.7% --> 40.81%

White non-Hispanic, increasing
* Humboldt Park: 4.44% --> 8.81%
* Lower West Side: 12.43% --> 18.89%
* Avondale: 28.44% --> 36.66%

Hispanic, increasing
* West Englewood: 2.18% --> 19.67%
* Austin: 8.85% --> 19.25%
* Clearing: 45.31% --> 59.13%
* Fuller Park: 4.59% --> 15.91%
* Dunning: 23.84% --> 34.86%
* Chicago Lawn: 45.19% --> 58.91%
* New City: 57.31% --> 67.48%
* West Lawn: 79.96% --> 87.27%
* Hegewisch: 49.55% --> 57.7%
* North Lawndale: 5.97% --> 11.63%
* West Elsdon: 79.04% --> 84.51%
* West Garfield Park: 1.93% --> 6.64%
* Englewood: 1.06% --> 6.59%
* East Garfield Park: 4.13% --> 8.32%

Hispanic, decreasing
* Lower West Side: 82.43% --> 71.03%
* Avondale: 64.43% --> 52.32%
* McKinley Park: 64.76% --> 55.94%
* Bridgeport: 27.02% --> 21.95%

Black, increasing
* Hegewisch: 3.86% --> 8.75%
* West Ridge: 11.14% --> 13.59%
* Montclare: 4.45% --> 6.12%
* Lower West Side: 3.1% --> 4.57%
* Clearing: 1.22% --> 2.28%
* Dunning: 0.73% --> 1.89%

Black, decreasing
* West Englewood: 96.26% --> 77.28%
* Austin: 85.1% --> 74.58%
* Chicago Lawn: 49.26% --> 36.55%
* New City: 29.63% --> 18.79%
* North Lawndale: 91.43% --> 83.67%
* Englewood: 97.37% --> 90.04%
* East Garfield Park: 90.9% --> 83.44%
* West Garfield Park: 96.19% --> 89.51%

Asian, increasing
* McKinley Park: 15.66% --> 26.97%
* Bridgeport: 34.57% --> 42.11%
* Brighton Park: 4.96% --> 10.86%
* The Loop: 15.91% --> 20.68%
* Near South Side: 15.46% --> 20.08%
* Near West Side: 14.62% --> 18.77%
* Hyde Park: 12.4% --> 16.28%
* Archer Heights: 1.03% --> 4.3%

More to come at another time.

Lots of neat stuff in here, good job!

First of all, Bridgeport is now about 42% Asian? Damn. It's changing quite rapidly. At this rate, by the next census it could become majority Asian.

The Loop, Near West, and Near South are now about 1/5 Asian. Not sure about the Near North Side, though. But that's pretty impressive.

Also, if the white population of Lincoln Park and Lakeview are decreasing, who are they being replaced with?

I see the black population of West Ridge inching up, and I'm betting that these are almost all African immigrants. I was just on Devon Ave in the past weekend and saw what I've been observing for years, more and more of what I guess to be Nigerians. There were Nigerians showing up in nice cars, finely dressed, for what appeared to be some sort of reception (wedding?) last weekend.

[the urban politician]

For Avondale Hispanics:

Avondale: 64.43% --> 52.32%

This poses a problem for Alderman "Keep the white people out" Rosa, as his constituency is shrinking. I'm sure he will buy time with gerrymandering, but the clock is ticking.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Lots of neat stuff in here, good job!

First of all, Bridgeport is now about 42% Asian? Damn. It's changing quite rapidly. At this rate, by the next census it could become majority Asian.

The largest percentage by group in 2020 IS Asian already. I believe in 2010 it was about equivalent with the White non-Hispanic group but it's now overtaken it. It shouldn't be a surprise really. I've talked about it in posts for a few years here and there's been articles on it in Sun Times even. There's more Chinese people in Bridgeport for the last handful of years than Chinatown and it's only increased.

In 2020 for Bridgeport:

Asian: 42.11%
White: 30.68%
Hispanic: 21.95%
Black: 2.67%
Other: 2.60%

One to keep an eye on over the next few decades will be McKinley Park:

Hispanic: 55.94%
Asian: 26.97%
White: 13.65%
Other: 1.84%
Black: 1.6%

The Loop, Near West, and Near South are now about 1/5 Asian. Not sure about the Near North Side, though. But that's pretty impressive.

Near North Side had less Asian growth than estimated, but Near South Side had more than estimated. I'm not surprised though - I was stalking some of the real estate purchase records for a bit and South Loop had a lot of Chinese names on the records (as well as some Indian). South Loop is now pretty similar in makeup to my neighborhood in NYC for the last few years I think although South Loop is a little less white.

Also, if the white population of Lincoln Park and Lakeview are decreasing, who are they being replaced with?

Here are the percentage point changes for each.. not percentage change but percentage point change..

Lincoln Park
Other (i.e. mixed race): +2.31 percentage points
Asian: +2.19 percentage points
Hispanic: +1.42 percentage points
Black: -0.19 percentage points
White: -5.74 percentage points

Lake View
Other: +2.65 percentage points
Asian: +1.5 percentage points
Hispanic: +1.44 percentage points
Black: -0.07 percentage points
White: -5.52 percentage points

I see the black population of West Ridge inching up, and I'm betting that these are almost all African immigrants. I was just on Devon Ave in the past weekend and saw what I've been observing for years, more and more of what I guess to be Nigerians. There were Nigerians showing up in nice cars, finely dressed, for what appeared to be some sort of reception (wedding?) last weekend.

I'm not surprised. Those areas on the north side are a big port of entry for all sorts of immigrants especially from Middle East, South Asia, and Africa. I think parts of the south side are getting some of it too but not like this.

[jtown,man]

Originally Posted by Vlajos

^ this is going to cause some huge political fights over representation. Chicago's city council is overrepresented by blacks and under represented by Hispanics and Asians.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/polit...rri-story.html

Jesus.

These race-obsessed people are literally talking about drawing wards to keep a majority race in power.

1. The race of the elected person shouldn't be reliant on the race of the ward.
2. This just causes so much division. My alderman is a black woman. I. Don't. Care. She is actually pretty responsive to community concerns. I don't think if she was white things would be any different.
3. This place will never function correctly with people like this in power.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by jtown,man

Jesus.

These race-obsessed people are literally talking about drawing wards to keep a majority race in power.

1. The race of the elected person shouldn't be reliant on the race of the ward.
2. This just causes so much division. My alderman is a black woman. I. Don't. Care. She is actually pretty responsive to community concerns. I don't think if she was white things would be any different.
3. This place will never function correctly with people like this in power.

Agree that's ita ridiculous but wait lol do you really think this is just a Chicago thing....? This is literally a problem everywhere in the US especially places with enough people and some sort of diversity.

[UPChicago]

Originally Posted by marothisu

- Grand Boulevard: 24,589 people (+2660 people or +12.13%)
- Douglas: 20,291 people (+2053 people or +11.26%)

Bronzeville +4,713 great news!

[cityofneighborhoods]

Originally Posted by UPChicago

Bronzeville +4,713 great news!

Also, it seems Oakland and North Kenwood had decent increases. With all the recently completed, under construction, and developments in the pipeline, this area + Woodlawn will likely be gaining quite a bit more density in the next few years. South Lakefront could potentially be a major source of population growth for the city

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by cityofneighborhoods

Also, it seems Oakland and North Kenwood had decent increases. With all the recently completed, under construction, and developments in the pipeline, this area + Woodlawn will likely be gaining quite a bit more density in the next few years. South Lakefront could potentially be a major source of population growth for the city

In 1950, the areas of Grand Boulevard, Oakland, Kenwood, and Douglas had over 250K people. Today it's under 75K. Obviously it won't be that dense these days but there's a ton of room for growth in that area and a lot of vacant lots in some areas still. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

[the urban politician]

^ Every day we are hearing about small buildings, townhomes, 2-6 flats, etc getting permitted in these areas.

It's not a tidal wave of development, but slowly and surely they are getting new residents.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

^ Every day we are hearing about small buildings, townhomes, 2-6 flats, etc getting permitted in these areas.

It's not a tidal wave of development, but slowly and surely they are getting new residents.

Right. The good news is that this area has seen its fair share of multi unit development. A bunch of SFH too but it's fairly balanced unlike some other areas. That's good news. So many lots available for a fraction of the price. Will be interesting to see what this area does in the next 20 years. It would be good if there could be a resurgence culturally of what it once was. So much culture lost. Some new businesses have sprung up lately I see which is great but what could be in general... so much was lost it's at least 50% a blank slate now.

From a location perspective and even public transit, it's just as good as parts of Lakeview, Uptown, Lincoln Square, North Center, etc.

[left of center]

Originally Posted by marothisu

In 1950, the areas of Grand Boulevard, Oakland, Kenwood, and Douglas had over 250K people. Today it's under 75K. Obviously it won't be that dense these days but there's a ton of room for growth in that area and a lot of vacant lots in some areas still. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

Hopefully we can start broaching those old population figures again by building densely along the lakefront. Would be pretty neat if the south lake front developed a highrise wall similar to that of the north lakefront neighborhoods.

Adding stations and more train frequency to Metra Electric would help with this objective.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by left of center

Hopefully we can start broaching those old population figures again by building densely along the lakefront. Would be pretty neat if the south lake front developed a highrise wall similar to that of the north lakefront neighborhoods.

Adding stations and more train frequency to Metra Electric would help with this objective.

That would be nice but even more sense midrises would be cool too. I could see the whole Reese redevelopment and even The 78 potentially being a catalyst for even more development.

Places in Lakeview are semi cheap compared to the coasts but not totally cheap.. Places in Bronzeville now are half or even better of those areas.

Who knows what will happen but will be interesting. I want to say that crime in Bronzeville started to stabilize in the last handful of years but this year in the overall area for murders is definitely up. Probably need to address these things before you see some big time development like other areas saw in the last decade.