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  #221  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2022, 8:44 PM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Given questions about late evacuation orders (justified by Ft. Myers barely being outside the "cone"), I wonder if the NHC should publish a 90% cone in addition to the 68% cone.
Fort Myers was definitely in red in the published maps/warnings.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php

Anyone who lives on the FL coast should know to heed these warnings.
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  #222  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2022, 9:41 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Fort Myers was definitely in red in the published maps/warnings.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/IAN_graphics.php

Anyone who lives on the FL coast should know to heed these warnings.

The reality is that evacuation is as easy as going to the local shelter or spending the night in your car in the Lehigh Acres Walmart parking lot, since only a superstorm could send major wind and surge impacts that far inland.

24 hours is plenty of time for a last minute emergency off the barrier islands to inland locations.

But it is not enough time to forcefully evacuate people who don’t want to leave.
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  #223  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2022, 10:37 PM
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Exactly. I said it before Fiona on this forum: anyone in Atlantic Canada who dies kind of asked for it, and the same is true of Ian for SW FL.

It's not like being in the WTC on 9/11 or even an earthquake. You see it coming days ahead of time. Just skip town for a day, even if you have to sleep in your vehicle (as you said).
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  #224  
Old Posted Oct 3, 2022, 10:40 PM
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Originally Posted by SIGSEGV View Post
Yeah, this is bullshit. It's fine for it to be non-profit, but it should charge sustainable rates.

But, if lenders require flood insurance, why do less then half the people in the flood plain have it? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/c...insurance.html Have they paid off their mortgage already?
Yep - That's a great article. What's worth noting is they recently updated their pricing to better reflect the local risk based on updated mapping/modeling/etc. It's FEMA's attempt to try to make this damn thing more financially stable. One of the problems they are noticing though is people are dropping policies because prices went up....

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After the new prices took effect, the number of homes that have federal flood insurance coverage, which had already been inching downward, started to fall even faster, Mr. Bowen said.

The number of households nationwide covered by the insurance program has shrunk by more than 165,000 under the new pricing scheme, a reduction of just over 3 percent, FEMA data show.
So.... You have this slow moving disaster. Storms are slowing down, putting more rain down, and intensifying..... FEMA keeps having to update their methodology to chase this problem, raising prices, which means people drop their policies.

Eventually this is going to catch up to many many communities that are increasingly vulnerable. All it's going to take is a couple compound events to completely crater a local real estate market for a larger metro.

I get that people are used to Florida just "rebuilding", but every year, it seems like the pressure grows a little more after each event.
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  #225  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 4:56 AM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post

Anyone who lives on the FL coast should know to heed these warnings.

This is exactly why development can't be allowed on the coast and especially on barrier islands - because too many people just never get it. If nobody lives on the islands or on the coast, these storms could come and go without incident. Instead, it's a tragicomedy every single time.

I mean, look at this thing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro

Last edited by jmecklenborg; Oct 4, 2022 at 2:03 PM.
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  #226  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 6:09 AM
galleyfox galleyfox is offline
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This is exactly why development can't be allowed on the coast and especially on barrier islands - because too many people just never get it. If nobody lies on the islands or on the coast, these storms could come and go without incident. Instead, it's a tragicomedy every single time.

I mean, look at this thing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro
Case in point. There was a family still in that house when the storm surge swept it away. You can see them opening the door to look outside at the beginning.

Only sheer dumb luck prevented a family’s death from being broadcast across the world.
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  #227  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 11:08 AM
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Florida's death toll is now 100. This is not looking good

https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/03/us/hu...day/index.html
We are hearing rumors that the Death toll is being under reported here in Florida. There are Migrant camps to the East of Ft. Meyers that haven't been reported on yet.
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  #228  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 2:13 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Case in point. There was a family still in that house when the storm surge swept it away. You can see them opening the door to look outside at the beginning.
Good grief. I didn't notice that myself after watching it 2-3 times.

I think a big part of the problem is that most Americans were familiar with the power of the ocean 100 years ago, back when the only way to get here was via an ocean voyage. Why the hell would you want to live somewhere where you had to look at the ocean every day when your personal memory of it was a violent sea voyage, one that possibly saw crew and passengers get ill, injured, or even die?

It's like mountains - people used to be terrified of mountains because so many people who went in didn't come back out. I doubt that people even thought of them as "beautiful", since the terrain was so fraught with danger - wild animals, crazy weather, getting lost, etc.
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  #229  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 3:24 PM
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here is what happens the minute you protest ian recovery or anything in cuba ...



As Cubans demand freedom, President Díaz-Canel says he will not tolerate 'illegitimate' protests

Nora Gámez Torres, Miami Herald on Oct 3, 2022



As residents in Havana and other cities continue demonstrating against the government and its response to Hurricane Ian, security forces have beaten and arrested some protesters, and Cuba’s handpicked president, Miguel Díaz-Canel, warned the population that “counterrevolutionary” behavior like blocking the streets will be punished.


***


Videos taken by a witness to the protest and shared with the Miami Herald show the moment two military trucks arrived at the site carrying the officers. Other videos published on social media show the moment the crowd yelled “marionetas” — puppets — at government officials who showed up in hopes of dissipating the demonstration. The Associated Press caught the violence that ensued later that evening on camera.

Justicia 11J, a group that tracks detentions of activists in Cuba, said they had confirmed at least 20 arrests during the Saturday evening demonstrations in Havana and Baracoa, a city in the eastern province of Guantánamo. One of the detainees in El Vedado, José Adalberto Fernández Cañizares, received medical treatment in the nearby Calixto García hospital before being transferred to a detention center, Justicia 11J said on Twitter.

“They started beating even minors, 15-, 16-year-old adolescents. The repression was brutal,” said Adrián Cruz, an activist known as Tata Poet, who was among those arrested in El Vedado. He was later released and shared his account on Facebook.

He said security forces beat a young man so hard that they “disfigured his face.” His girlfriend, activist and circus performer Rosmery Almeda, is still under detention, he said.

On Monday, the U.S. Embassy in Havana urged Cuban authorities “to respect the right of the Cuban people to protest without repression or arrests and to allow unrestricted use of the Internet.”

“We stand in solidarity with the Cuban people affected by Hurricane Ian and who are expressing themselves in a peaceful protest,” the embassy said in a tweet in Spanish.


more:
https://www.arcamax.com/currentnews/...ines/s-2732893
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  #230  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 5:01 PM
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Ft.Myers beach also has terrible geography. When a storm comes in from the SW (which is the direction any gulf storm would come from), the water will get pushed up that bay with no where to go and get funneled directly at Ft. Myers Beach which is right in the center point. That is what happened in this case. The storm hit just to the north, so with the counter clockwise rotation, the wind was pushing the water from the SW to the NE.
https://www.google.com/maps/@26.3989.../data=!3m1!1e3
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  #231  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 8:02 PM
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James Bond Agent 007 James Bond Agent 007 is offline
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It occurred to me as I was watching some of the storm surge videos from Ian that storms like this are probably a big source of the "plastic in the ocean" problem. Storm surges come in, wash through and destroy a bunch of houses, trailer parks and other buildings, not to mention cars, boats and other vehicles, all filled with various assortments of bottles, cans and other plastic items, and all kinds of other things, much of which get washed back into the sea as the storm surge recedes. The Gulf of Mexico is now filled with gobs of junk from people's houses and cars that wasn't there a week ago. Ocean currents will eventually take that stuff all around the world's oceans.

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  #232  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007 View Post
It occurred to me as I was watching some of the storm surge videos from Ian that storms like this are probably a big source of the "plastic in the ocean" problem. Storm surges come in, wash through and destroy a bunch of houses, trailer parks and other buildings, not to mention cars, boats and other vehicles, all filled with various assortments of bottles, cans and other plastic items, and all kinds of other things, much of which get washed back into the sea as the storm surge recedes. The Gulf of Mexico is now filled with gobs of junk from people's houses and cars that wasn't there a week ago. Ocean currents will eventually take that stuff all around the world's oceans.
These storms can certainly create big, acute waste events in the oceans, but daily runoff, in all its forms, filled with plastic trash is the chronic culprit accounting for our lovely garbage patches.
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  #233  
Old Posted Oct 4, 2022, 8:47 PM
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Debris and even peoples personal belongings from the Japan Tsunami washed up on the US Pacific coast months later.
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  #234  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 12:10 AM
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https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ele...official-warns

Electric vehicles are exploding from water damage after Hurricane Ian, top Florida official warns

Fox News ^ | Oct. 7, 2022 | Thomas Catenacci
Posted on 10/6/2022, 5:34:09 PM by Rennes Templar

A top Florida state official warned Thursday that firefighters have battled a number of fires caused by electric vehicle (EV) batteries waterlogged from Hurricane Ian.

EV batteries that have been waterlogged in the wake of the hurricane are at risk of corrosion, which could lead to unexpected fires, according to Jimmy Patronis, the state's top financial officer and fire marshal.

"There’s a ton of EVs disabled from Ian. As those batteries corrode, fires start," Patronis tweeted Thursday. "That’s a new challenge that our firefighters haven’t faced before. At least on this kind of scale."

"It takes special training and understanding of EVs to ensure these fires are put out quickly and safely,...

...

Last week, Hurricane Ian pummeled cities along Florida's west coast including Naples and Fort Myers, making landfall as a Category 4 storm. The hurricane caused more than 100 deaths and over a million residents to lose power.

It is unclear how many EVs were impacted or destroyed by the storm.

...
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  #235  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 2:02 AM
DCReid DCReid is offline
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Real Estate's Florida Migrants Undeterred By Hurricane Ian's Devastation

From:
https://www.bisnow.com/national/news...ian-nyc-115712


The pandemic supercharged a mass migration from the Northeast to Florida — and a bevy of New York real estate players shifted their business to follow suit.

Hurricane Ian, one of the costliest storms in U.S. history, which displayed the ever-worsening threat of the climate crisis on the Sunshine State and threatens the state's teetering insurance market, isn't likely to kick-start a reversal, real estate players told Bisnow.


“Natural disasters and weather circumstances have always been a part of Florida,” said Steven Sperandio, the co-head of debt and structured finance at Ripco in Miami, who relocated from New York City at the start of the pandemic.

He initially moved on a temporary basis to work remotely for his previous firm, B6 Real Estate, but is now running the Florida debt business for the primarily New York-based Ripco, with most of the deal flow stemming from ground-up development and bridge financing for sites in Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.

“It's really sad to see what happened on the west coast of Florida, but it is a really big state," Sperandio said. "While those risks are here, I don't know that it's really going to outweigh a lot of the positives that we've seen over the last couple of years.”

Those positives — stemming from Florida's population explosion — have created a real estate gold rush. An extra 200,000 people moved to the state between 2020 and 2021, according to census data reported by the New York Post. To serve them, there have been a swarm of businesses both expanding and launching in the state.

More than 600,000 new businesses were launched in Florida last year, per federal data. That figure was nearly 30% higher than the previous year and twice as high as in New York.

Florida has drawn corporate relocations from cold-weather cities, notably Ken Griffin’s Citadel shifting its global headquarters to Miami from Chicago and Starwood Capital Group moving its headquarters to Miami Beach from Connecticut.

Elliott Management and billionaire Carl Icahn’s Icahn Enterprises announced plans to move offices from New York to Florida last year, and Blackstone and Goldman Sachs have expanded in the state this year.

That migration and the pro-business sentiment has caught the attention of many in real estate — even those who had been exclusively focused on New York City in the past. Many New York City brokers, developers and investors were using the state as something of a satellite office to conduct business after Florida relaxed its pandemic restrictions in the summer of 2020.

Hurricane Ian, which has done an estimated $47B worth of damage and resulted in a death toll that is at 100 and rising, is unlikely to deter anyone who sees it as a great place to do deals, multiple industry players said.

“Climate change isn't stopping me from spending more time in South Florida for the next however many years I can,” Ackman-Ziff Real Estate Group President Simon Ziff said.

The Kempner Corp.'s Peter Kempner, Ackman-Ziff's Simon Ziff and Paragon Realty Group's Daniel Weinreb at the 2016 REBNY gala.
He spent three months during the worst of Covid in Miami, making use of the ability to do in-person meetings outdoors without braving the cold in New York.

This winter, he is planning to spend three weeks a month in Miami, though his business is almost entirely run out of New York City.

“Too many companies are committing to South Florida,” he said in regards to whether real estate firms will continue to invest in the state, even with a fresh reminder of its vulnerability.

Shelton Weeks, the director of the Lucas Institute for Real Estate Development and Finance at Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers, doesn't think investors will be put off from the state — quite the opposite, in fact.

“If it’s anything like what we saw after Hurricane Irma and Charlie, the phones are probably ringing from people hoping they can swoop in for a discount,” he told Bisnow Wednesday. "Florida is still Florida, and we’ve got some really big positive factors going for us. The weather most of the time is a huge asset, the tax structure in the state, folks are still going to move to Florida.”

The fallout from the storm could actually work to the benefit of owners of newer properties in the affected area, Weeks said. South Florida experienced enormous rent increases in the last two years — apartment rents jumped by nearly 25% between July 2021 and 2022.

U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Marcia Fudge describe Miami this summer as the epicenter of the housing crisis in the country. Miami had the biggest rent premium over historical averages of any city in the country last month, according to a rental index Weeks produces with colleagues at the University of Alabama and Florida Atlantic University.

Cape Coral, which took a direct hit from Ian, was the second-most-overvalued rental market in the country, according to the index. Tampa was third.

"If we had a tight market going in, and we had a loss in space as a result of the storm, I could see upward pressure on rents there, at least in the short term,” Weeks said.

The impact on home prices, however, could be severe, said Gay Cororaton, an economist and the director of housing and commercial research with the Research Group of the National Association of Realtors. Home prices have dropped this summer as mortgage rates have spiked, which could pose issues for rebuilding.

“It took about five to seven years for Atlantic City to recover [from Superstorm Sandy],” she said. “I think it's even going to be worse for Florida ... I anticipate that. It could, as a recovery, take longer because the housing market conditions are not as favorable now.”

The short-term impact of Ian show the downside risk of investing in Florida — but that risk is still outweighed by New York's political climate and business environment, Compass Vice Chair Adelaide Polsinelli said.

In early 2021, she told Bisnow she worried Miami was “stealing New York’s lunch," and she remains worried, even as scenes of Ian’s devastation of swaths of property are splashed across the news.

“I think that having seen how ugly it can get here in New York City has definitely made investing in other states more permanent," said Polsinelli, an investment sales specialist. "And I'm seeing families actually picking up their roots and planting them somewhere in a more business-friendly state like Florida.”

Allen Morris Co. President Spencer Morris said he thinks the momentum of people moving to the Sun Belt is too powerful to reverse — but on a hyperlocal level, storms like Ian could change people's preference for location.

"I think that the trend of people moving down from the southeast United States generally is an enduring trend that has legs and is going to continue for years to come for a variety of reasons," said Morris, whose firm has projects in Orlando and Miami. "I think people will probably be more reticent to live in or pay premiums for homes that are on the water."

Polsinelli's clients have largely focused on the inland areas, she said. She pointed out that it's not as if New York is immune from climate threats.

“There can be storms here, there could be flooding,” she said. "We're not completely excluded from hurricanes. We've had our share also."

Ripco’s Sperandio said he has seen his deal flow shift significantly to Miami-focused work. Florida used to be 5% of his deal activity and is now 50% to 60%, he said.

“People are coming here, retailers are coming here. It's just proving to be a more robust, more well-rounded economy,” he said. “To the extent people have to get back on their feet after a storm like this, it's sad. But I think there's still a lot of those positive elements of the area that are going to keep it very active down here."

Ethan Rothstein contributed reporting to this article.

Contact Miriam Hall at miriam.hall@bisnow.com
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  #236  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 2:47 AM
lio45 lio45 is offline
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ele...official-warns

Electric vehicles are exploding from water damage after Hurricane Ian, top Florida official warns

Fox News ^ | Oct. 7, 2022 | Thomas Catenacci
Posted on 10/6/2022, 5:34:09 PM by Rennes Templar

A top Florida state official warned Thursday that firefighters have battled a number of fires caused by electric vehicle (EV) batteries waterlogged from Hurricane Ian.

EV batteries that have been waterlogged in the wake of the hurricane are at risk of corrosion, which could lead to unexpected fires, according to Jimmy Patronis, the state's top financial officer and fire marshal.

"There’s a ton of EVs disabled from Ian. As those batteries corrode, fires start," Patronis tweeted Thursday. "That’s a new challenge that our firefighters haven’t faced before. At least on this kind of scale."

"It takes special training and understanding of EVs to ensure these fires are put out quickly and safely,...

...

Last week, Hurricane Ian pummeled cities along Florida's west coast including Naples and Fort Myers, making landfall as a Category 4 storm. The hurricane caused more than 100 deaths and over a million residents to lose power.

It is unclear how many EVs were impacted or destroyed by the storm.

...
Pro tip: if you have an EV and you live on the coast and a Cat 4 hurricane is approaching, get your butt into your EV and drive away from the coast. If you're a family with two vehicles, take both. If you can't charge it wherever you end up, it'll be fine sitting on a Walmart parking lot INLAND for a few days until power's back.
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  #237  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 2:53 AM
twister244 twister244 is online now
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
What? A bevy of folks across the Florida real estate industry say there will be no change in the trend of people moving to Florida?

SHOCKER.
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  #238  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 3:51 AM
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Originally Posted by bnk View Post
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ele...official-warns

Electric vehicles are exploding from water damage after Hurricane Ian, top Florida official warns

Fox News ^ | Oct. 7, 2022 | Thomas Catenacci
Posted on 10/6/2022, 5:34:09 PM by Rennes Templar

A top Florida state official warned Thursday that firefighters have battled a number of fires caused by electric vehicle (EV) batteries waterlogged from Hurricane Ian.

EV batteries that have been waterlogged in the wake of the hurricane are at risk of corrosion, which could lead to unexpected fires, according to Jimmy Patronis, the state's top financial officer and fire marshal.

"There’s a ton of EVs disabled from Ian. As those batteries corrode, fires start," Patronis tweeted Thursday. "That’s a new challenge that our firefighters haven’t faced before. At least on this kind of scale."

"It takes special training and understanding of EVs to ensure these fires are put out quickly and safely,...

...

Last week, Hurricane Ian pummeled cities along Florida's west coast including Naples and Fort Myers, making landfall as a Category 4 storm. The hurricane caused more than 100 deaths and over a million residents to lose power.

It is unclear how many EVs were impacted or destroyed by the storm.

...
likely existing corrosion from constant exposure to salt in the air. still, definitely something that shouldn't be happening. afaik the battery module should be fully sealed - it's not that uncommon to have to drive in very heavy rains, and water and electricity don't mix of course.
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  #239  
Old Posted Oct 7, 2022, 5:06 AM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Pro tip: if you have an EV and you live on the coast and a Cat 4 hurricane is approaching, get your butt into your EV and drive away from the coast.
I know people here in Ohio who joke about having their vacation homes and luxury cars destroyed by hurricanes. Like it's a status symbol to let their toys get destroyed just to show off how much money they have.
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  #240  
Old Posted Oct 13, 2022, 9:01 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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The NY Times reports that claims are estimated to reach $67 billion. Yes, $67 billion. It would be like tearing down practically every pro sports stadium in the United States and rebuilding them.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/13/c...icane-ian.html

Again, the development of barrier islands should have never, ever been allowed, and development along the coasts needed to be heavily restricted.
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