California Poised to Overtake Germany as World’s No. 4 Economy

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It doesn't, though.

California most certainly does.

IRS Collections from CA 2021: $587B
CA State Tax Revenue 2021----$248B
TOTAL----------------------------$835B

They would have to recreate everything from scratch and without a big consumer market.

CA by itself is a bigger consumer market than Canada and has greater buying power than the UK and France. CA will have no problem financing a new government, especially if the existing state government essentially takes over that role.

First, the U.S. would rip out all of the national security infrastructure from California.

What do you mean 'rip out'? Most of CA's military installations were closed back in the 1990s during the Clinton and then GWH Bush administations.

California wouldn't have a military supplier industry at all.

Well, the federal govt rerouted defense spending in CA to the DMV a long time ago taking most of CA's homegrown defense contracting industry with them.

1. Are you saying those defense contractors wouldnt sell to CA? They sell to Saudi Arabia but they wouldn't sell to California? That makes no sense.

2. I certainly hope youre not implying that CA couldnt create it's own military industrial complex, it already had one that relocated to the East Coast due to govt spending.

All of the aerospace suppliers would flee the state

They already have, mainly to the DMV when GWB took 50B in defense spending out of CA and moved that deliberately to Virginia and Maryland-so this is a hollow point.

And California wouldn't have anywhere near the military apparatus to recreate that industry.

Are you kidding? LOL California would have one of the most advanced militaries on the face of the earth. That's not even a question.

Not to mention that the U.S. would forbid allied governments from purchasing any military products from California.

LOL Why? Please explain.

Second, the tech industry would likely prefer to be in the U.S. than be in California, if they were forced to choose. Meta, Alphabet, and Apple would almost certainly leave California. Much of the venture market would also follow.

Actually, I'm sorry but given how unstable democracy in the United States would be if California actually seceded, this^ is highly doubtful. California would be more politically stable than the US as a whole, to be frank. In fact, I can see California attracting a lot of people from the US who no dont feel welcome there anymore. It's really quite sad tbh.

California could probably survive as an independent nation, but it won't be the fourth or fifth largest economy.

In all likelihood, left to it's own devices, California would probably rise to 3rd.

Depending on how amicable is the hypothetical breakup with the U.S. would determine its fate.

This is really the most interesting aspect of this entire debate to me. Why couldn't it be amicable? Most Americans dislike California-but nostrils get all flared when we talk of secession? LOL I will never understand that.

Americans hate us but they want to own and control us. Is that it?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

1. Are you saying those defense contractors wouldnt sell to CA? They sell to Saudi Arabia but they wouldn't sell to California? That makes no sense.

2. I certainly hope youre not implying that CA couldnt create it's own military industrial complex, it already had one that relocated to the East Coast due to govt spending.


They already have, mainly to the DMV when GWB took 50B in defense spending out of CA and moved that deliberately to Virginia and Maryland-so this is a hollow point.

Yes. If California left the U.S. then I doubt it would be amicable.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Are you kidding? LOL California would have one of the most advanced militaries on the face of the earth. That's not even a question.

Unlikely. Building a military is hard. Unfortunately, the best way to build one is through military conflict.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

LOL Why? Please explain.

Because California almost certainly wouldn't be leaving the U.S. amicably.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Actually, I'm sorry but given how unstable democracy in the United States would be if California actually seceded, this^ is highly doubtful. California would be more politically stable than the US as a whole, to be frank. In fact, I can see California attracting a lot of people from the US who no dont feel welcome there anymore. It's really quite sad tbh.

I do agree that the most realistic scenario of California leaving the U.S. would be if the entire country has fractured. But I thought we were talking about the scenario where California decided to go it alone and leave the rest of the 49 states together.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

In all likelihood, left to it's own devices, California would probably rise to 3rd.

Nah. California's wealth is derived from membership in one of the largest economic unions on Earth.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

This is really the most interesting aspect of this entire debate to me. Why couldn't it be amicable? Most Americans dislike California-but nostrils get all flared when we talk of secession? LOL I will never understand that.

Americans hate us but they want to own and control us. Is that it?

I mean... By far the deadliest war in the history of this country was fought over states deciding to leave the union. It seems pretty obvious to me why it would likely not be amicable lol.

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

This is only an issue if the United States makes it one. The 2 countries wouldn't have to 'suddenly' change anything if CA continues to use the USD and keeps current US regulations in place and only gradually implement it's own fiat and regulations. For some reason you say this has to be an overnight change, but it doesnt.

So California would adopt the USD as its official currency or pegs its currency to the USD? Have fun with that!!... I'm sure it'll just be easy-peasy for the new country, having its monetary policy determined by another larger and richer nation.

And it would be interested to understand just how would this newly-independent California keep current US regulations in place? California could call their regs by the same names, but they ain't gonna be recognized as US laws by anyone but California.

Fantasy talk.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I was looking at various industries and CA would be the world's 5th largest manufacturing country--

Manufacturing GDP:
China $4 Trillion
US(Minus CA) $1.4 Trillion
Japan $1 Trillion
Germany $806B
California $400B
South Korea $372B
India $298B
France $274B
United Kingdom $244B
Mexico $175B

What do you mean 'standalone' economy? The US economy is the sum of it's component states. The US govt's role is regulation and foreign trade, otherwise, states are already basically on their own. Right?

US manufacturing GDP is $2.3T

California would be the world's 5th largest manufacturing country-- if it existed in a vacuum.

It does not.

California is political lines on a map.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Only states that receive more federal funding than they pay to the IRS are not 'stand alone' imo

Well, your opinion is really surface level, and concentrates on a single economic flow of relatively less significance. People who think that autonomy is somehow conferred from the larger political body when a state or county or whatever pays more in taxes than it receives back in federal funding for its public amenities are seriously misguided. This is middle school-level thinking.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

California would be more politically stable than the US as a whole, to be frank. In fact, I can see California attracting a lot of people from the US who no dont feel welcome there anymore. It's really quite sad tbh.

This would be interesting to see. If it were more "politically stable" than the world's longest running democracy right off the bat, it would certainly buck ALL convention in the history of modern mankind. And then obviously wouldn't have any need for a military to keep order over its highly-diverse-in all-aspects 165k square miles. Or at least we'd hope that either California could build a capable military overnight to keep the peace the day after secession or cross its collective fingers and pray no "bad guys" get any ideas while the Golden Bear Republic is putting together its welcoming army.... because that would just be so sad tbh.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

Why couldn't it be amicable?

Because it's a lose-lose.

[homebucket]

I don’t know of any Californians that have a serious desire to secede. Both CA and the US would lose if CA left it. And even if CA left not all of it would want to leave. I’m sure some areas would prefer to stay a part of the US. And if it did leave, there would be a pretty big tug of war between the US to get it back and China trying to establish it as a new province (Commiefornia).

[pj3000]

Originally Posted by homebucket

And if it did leave, there would be a pretty big tug of war between the US to get it back and China trying to establish it as a new province (Commiefornia).

Isn't that what it's already called?

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Isn't that what it's already called?

That’s it’s nickname supposedly but if it did leave it could become reality.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by homebucket

I don’t know of any Californians that have a serious desire to secede. Both CA and the US would lose if CA left it. And even if CA left not all of it would want to leave. I’m sure some areas would prefer to stay a part of the US. And if it did leave, there would be a pretty big tug of war between the US to get it back and China trying to establish it as a new province (Commiefornia).

If California left, and the U.S. was still a stable government, Washington would never allow China to set up a territory right on the U.S. border, nor even a sphere of influence. It wouldn't allow China to do that anywhere on the American continent. The Cuban embargo is what happened the last time anything remotely similar happened.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If California left, and the U.S. was still a stable government, Washington would never allow China to set up a territory right on the U.S. border, nor even a sphere of influence. It wouldn't allow China to do that anywhere on the American continent. The Cuban embargo is what happened the last time anything remotely similar happened.

There’s probably no scenario where CA leaves and the US is still stable. It’s more likely some other states or cities follow it out the door.

Washington or whatever is left of it probably wouldn’t allow it, but that wouldn’t stop China from trying. The other country in play would be Mexico. California returning to its roots, but as a puppet state of China. We’re looking at WW3 at that point.

Like someone else said, it’s a lose lose.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by pj3000

So California would adopt the USD as its official currency or pegs its currency to the USD?

Foreign countries already use the USD.

Have fun with that!!... I'm sure it'll just be easy-peasy for the new country, having its monetary policy determined by another larger and richer nation.

Temporarily I don't see a problem with this at all actually--California could implement a step-by-step process of implementing it's own currency while using the dollar in the interim. Another problem that doesn't need to exist.

And it would be interested to understand just how would this newly-independent California keep current US regulations in place?

Again, as CA assumes responsibilities currently held by the federal govt, CA drops US regulations and implements it's own.

California could call their regs by the same names, but they ain't gonna be recognized as US laws by anyone but California.

Why not?

California is political lines on a map.

Right, just like the entire planet. LOL.

Well, your opinion is really surface level, and concentrates on a single economic flow of relatively less significance.

Right and I'm not really reading anything convincing from you except doubt.

People who think that autonomy is somehow conferred from the larger political body when a state or county or whatever pays more in taxes than it receives back in federal funding for its public amenities are seriously misguided.

You seem to be pushing a delusional argument the federal government is some some centralized command center that bequeaths life to lowly states that wouldnt be able to tie their shoes without their unquestionable guidance. SORRY, that is BULLSHIT.It also sounds very Beijingesque. LOL.

This is middle school-level thinking.

Indeed.

This would be interesting to see. If it were more "politically stable" than the world's longest running democracy right off the bat, it would certainly buck ALL convention in the history of modern mankind.

Yes, and it's stunningly tragic how all of this now hangs in the balance---yet here we are, fascists who attacked the US Capitol, now standing in the wings, ready to take over the very building they invaded.

As I said, I have zero desire for California to succeed but don't get it twisted, we could and be just fine, if not better.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Because it's a lose-lose.

This is probably the correct answer.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by homebucket

There’s probably no scenario where CA leaves and the US is still stable. It’s more likely CA takes some other states or cities with it.

Washington or whatever is left of it probably wouldn’t allow it, but that wouldn’t stop China from trying. The other country in play would be Mexico. California returning to its roots, but as a puppet state of China. We’re looking at WW3 at that point.

Like someone else said, it’s a lose lose.

Definitely a WW3 scenario. Western Europe would most likely move to assert influence over the Americas rather than let it fall to China. In its current state I don't even think China is powerful enough to do that even with the U.S. shattering. It hasn't even established a sphere of influence over the countries right on its doorstep, let alone venturing onto another continent.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by homebucket

There’s probably no scenario where CA leaves and the US is still stable. It’s more likely some other states or cities follow it out the door.

Yep, Texas seems more serious about the whole independence and secession than California is.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Definitely a WW3 scenario. Western Europe would most likely move to assert influence over the Americas rather than let it fall to China. In its current state I don't even think China is powerful enough to do that even with the U.S. shattering. It hasn't even established a sphere of influence over the countries right on its doorstep, let alone venturing onto another continent.

Isn’t China trying to do that with Africa right now with resource extraction? CA may not be natural resource rich anymore (unless you count agriculture) but assuming it can retain its technological and intellectual resources it’s still a highly desirable entity. It’d be like the Nuggets letting Jokic go to free agency and assuming no other team would go after him.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by homebucket

Isn’t China trying to do that with Africa right now with resource extraction? CA may not be natural resource rich anymore (unless you count agriculture) but assuming it can retain its technological and intellectual resources it’s still a highly desirable entity. It’d be like the Nuggets letting Jokic go to free agency and assuming no other team would go after him.

Yes, China is attempting to create a modern system of colonialism in Africa, but I'm not sure how successful they'll be at that. However, I'd argue that they're still pretty weak since they don't really control their own neighborhood yet. The U.S. has major military bases surrounding China. It would be inconceivable for China to have a base anywhere remotely close to the American continent, or one close to Europe for that matter.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It would be inconceivable for China to have a base anywhere remotely close to the American continent, or one close to Europe for that matter.

Back in the 1950s and 60s, Mao promoted solidarity in China along ethnic lines. He understood that a foreign power seeking to break apart his regime would likely attempt to do so by getting the various Chinese minorities to turn against his Han government. Meanwhile, he made (unsuccessful) attempts to agitate U.S. minorities to attack the ruling class.

So when all of this racial agitation began about five years ago in the United States (a much more diverse one than existed in the 1960s, btw), the obvious source was overseas - Russia and China. Twitter and Reddit gave them a direct conduit to all of the losers who can't look up from their phones. Now we've got them adding Civil War to the mix.

Quit falling for this stuff, people.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

This would solve all your problems, Cali.


With Canada, the rest of the Pacific coast, the Northeast megalopolis and parts of the midwest, we would have one hell of a viable country.

At this point Virgina and DC would come with us.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Back in the 1950s and 60s, Mao promoted solidarity in China along ethnic lines. He understood that a foreign power seeking to break apart his regime would likely attempt to do so by getting the various Chinese minorities to turn against his Han government. Meanwhile, he made (unsuccessful) attempts to agitate U.S. minorities to attack the ruling class.

So when all of this racial agitation began about five years ago in the United States (a much more diverse one than existed in the 1960s, btw), the obvious source was overseas - Russia and China. Twitter and Reddit gave them a direct conduit to all of the losers who can't look up from their phones. Now we've got them adding Civil War to the mix.

Quit falling for this stuff, people.

Racism was both the binding philosophy and the fatal flaw of the European colonial system. The system was fracturing before WW2, but Japan destroyed it in Asia by selling the European colonies in Asia the idea of Asian self-determination. They were able to take control of many European colonies in Asia using that tactic. The problem was that colonialism under Japan was just as brutal, if not more brutal lol. Anyway, treatment of ethnic minorities by American and European powers has been exploited by adversaries of the west since WW2.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

As I said, I have zero desire for California to succeed …

Interesting typo there!

(I know you meant “secede”, but it’s not automatically obvious …)

[JManc]

California is as successful as it is because it is a major innovative/ economic hub within the US but it would be diminished should it go it alone...much like the UK when it left the EU.