The Canadian Electric Vehicle thread

[Truenorth00]

The real irony here is that Tesla's model of everything being done in house is basically how cars were built in the heydays of the 60s. If you listen to old auto execs they'll say this whole trend of outsourcing didn't really start till the 70s and then took off in the 80s, in no small part spurred on by the growth of Toyota and their practices. So weirdly, EV makers like Tesla and Rivian are very retro companies like that.

[OldDartmouthMark]

I don't really have the time/energy to continue a deep dive back and forth debate on this.

All I will say is that I respect your opinions and feel you have made some solid points. I also don't agree on certain assumptions/trajectories and contend that neither of us have the depth of information or the ability to predict the unpredictable in order to actually have a clear view as to how all of this will play out.

When I read these online forums (which I have been for many years), I have noticed a pattern by which somebody makes a detailed, logical analysis of the current situation, and makes definite predictions for the way things will go into the future. The next year they will look at the current situation and everything that has happened in the previous year, and make a different prediction for the future, and so on. When 'the future' of whatever was being discussed actually arrives, often some of their predictions were correct, partially correct, or just dead wrong. That's why I tend to give opinions, but will always concede that it's highly possible that I will be wrong. It's also why I think 'a whole year' is somewhat inconsequential for the most part, unless we are talking drastic events, like the start of World War II, or some other catastrophic turn of events in human history... I'm not sure that we are at the cusp of this yet, but I'm more thinking that this is 1922 and not 1937... but maybe I'm wrong. As always, time will tell.

As always, I appreciate the conversation, but don't want either of us to use up a bunch of time trying to dispute/defend every idea/opinion that is written, as my conviction towards those ideas is not all that intense or important to me, but I do enjoy the conversation. I, like you, also have other things that I have and want to do with my time.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I don't want anybody to get the idea that I'm cheering on the demise of these companies. But I do think not discussing these issues doesn't help anybody. The consequences of transition are profound. And if they aren't addressed, those consequences will be much worse and catch us all unprepared when they arrive.



Imagine, you're three years out from Henry Ford launching the Model T and you're still selling horse driven buggies and promising to develop an engine and production line to catch up to Ford. Still thinking a year isn't a big deal?

I want you to consider how fast Tesla is moving for comparison. First million cars they sold took 12 years. The second million took 18 months. The third million took 11 months. The fourth million took 7 months. Musk is saying Tesla will produce 20 million cars a year in 2030. Even if Tesla produces half of that, given that the auto market isn't actually growing, that alone could be the end of some legacy OEMs. But it's not just Tesla, the Chinese EV OEMs are eating their share outside North America and are just as aggressive as Tesla.



I don't think you get it. It's not government timelines that are the problem. It's competitive pressure. From the EV only startups. In a decade, Tesla went from selling $90k Model S to $50k Model 3 while adding range, acceleration and automation, growing their charging network and their sales and service networks. They were running near broke to fund that growth and development. Imagine what a Tesla with 25% margins (and growing) will do over the next 10 years. This is what a lot of people don't understand. Between the pressure coming from Tesla and the Chinese OEMs, at this point, Western governments are trying to force a transition to save these companies from themselves. Imagine the consequences for Germany or Japan if their auto sectors fail because executives kept insisting EVs are some hippy nonsense fad. Imagine the consequences for the West of basically ceding most of the auto sector to China by not building EVs. I don't expect average auto fans to get this. But I do expect auto execs to know and understand this.



My frustration is that they just don't get it. Ford and Renault do somewhat get it. They are the only two companies to completely segregate their EV businesses from the rest of the company. Ford even made sure that only one of the new executives in the Model E division came from the auto sector. They recognize that they need to build their EV businesses with a startup mindset. They can't default to how things have always been done and existing supply chains or they just won't be able to compete. The rest of the companies just don't get it.



North America and Asia (mostly China) are #2 and #3 for revenue for Toyota. And dare I say where most of the profits come from (particularly SUVs and pickups in North America). If these start declining, Toyota is the going to get into trouble really fast.





I will say again. Understanding the change in focus from hardware to software is fundamental to understanding what the change from ICEV to BEVs means. Their challenges aren't really in putting a motor and battery in a car. It's in the software. And this is not a minor matter. It's akin to saying Nokia, Motorola and RIM know how to build phones so they should dominate smartphones. Where are they now? They couldn't survive the transition from buttons to touchscreens. It wasn't putting a touchscreen on the phone that was the problem. They even had some touchscreen phones before Apple and Google. It was the software challenges.



I think they are largely stuck trying to retrofit existing tech, processes and plants into manufacturing. This is largely why they'll take an existing crossbeam and stick it in an EV. Even where they know they should change, they are stuck. A good example of this is Tesla going from 12V electrical inside the car to 48V. Every auto engineer will tell you this is a good decision that should have been done decades ago. It saves a whole lot of copper wiring. It's why on the aviation side, commercial aviation loses 300VDC (my professional background). The legacies partially use higher voltages in their hybrids. So why hasn't the industry switched? Because the entire supply chain with everything from door locks to washer spray runs on 12V. Tesla basically said that whatever industry won't provide with 48V they will build themselves. This is an example of the kind of changes that the legacies just can't do because they they will never imagine building subcomponents in-house and their business model is based on squeezing suppliers, not engineering cost reduction as a whole. But since Tesla builds most of the car and sources out a much smaller portion, they are consistently looking at how to reduce cost of the whole car.

Another example... Tesla builds in an extra $1000 worth of computing power and sensors into every car they sell. Yet only 15% of buyers take up the $10k full self drive packages. So why do they do it? Because the reduced complexity in manufacturing is worthwhile to them. And they get the data from these sensors which keeps refining their AI models. Meanwhile the legacy OEMs will literally build different wiring harnesses for different trim levels of the same car to avoid giving away an extra $2 in wiring. And this is justified as boosting margins.

This is a long one (nearly 2 hrs) but if you're interested you can watch John McElroy (who used to be a Tesla and EV skeptic a few years ago) talk about all this with Sandy Munro (auto consultant who used to work at Ford). Most of these examples are from there. I will disagree with them on Toyota pivoting quickly. But otherwise, I mostly agree with this:

• Video Link



Will the legacy OEMs give these folks the freedom to structure their businesses, source components as they need and design what they want? Or will they tell them to design different harnesses for different trims and source components from the existing suppliers to preserve volume discounts?

[1overcosc]

On the whole traditional dealer vs. the new Tesla model debate, one thing that hasn't been mentioned yet: smaller cities and small towns.

Dealer networks are dense and pretty much every town in Ontario with more than a thousand people has a locally owned car dealer and a locally owned auto shop. A friend of mine lives in Ompah, ON, which is about 120km from the nearest city of 100,000 more; yet when he needs work done on his car, he only has to drive 30 minutes to the nearest auto shop, which is located in the neighbouring village of Sharbot Lake, which has a population of about 300.

I highly doubt that the shift from traditional OEMs with dense networks and open platforms allowing independent garages doing the work, to new fangled computers on wheels where only employees of the company can do work on them, is going to result in Tesla having service centres in places like Sharbot Lake. Every company will have one in Toronto and one in Ottawa, and nowhere else in Ontario, and people who currently have auto shops right down the street from them will now be stuck travelling 400km round trips to the nearest major city every time they need work done.

Another factor is that locally owned dealer networks can provide a sense of community. Even in a small city like Kingston, it's nice buying a car from someone in my community, as opposed to a faceless corporation half a continent away. This kind of thing might not matter to people who live in places like Toronto, Calgary, Montreal, Vancouver, or Ottawa, but it matters to those of us who live in Kingston, Moncton, Red Deer, Kamloops, and Trois-Rivieres.

[Truenorth00]

^ A great point. I don't know what the solution is for smaller population centres. New companies are always going to invest where the bulk of the market is. And places like Sharbot Lake are going to be marginal for sales anyway. But if the major OEMs don't survive, the discussion maybe moot.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ A great point. I don't know what the solution is for smaller population centres. New companies are always going to invest where the bulk of the market is. And places like Sharbot Lake are going to be marginal for sales anyway. But if the major OEMs don't survive, the discussion maybe moot.

I think the solution is to make "partner networks" - basically a system where a third party company can be authorized by Tesla to be/host a small scale Tesla sale & service point. Sort of like how FedEx will have random convenience stores be FedEx "service points" in addition to actual FedEx stores, or how pharmacies will host Canada Post outlets. The Tesla company itself can operate flagship stores in major cities as per the current model, while these third party networks can fill in the market in smaller cities and towns that are far away from these major cities.

[WarrenC12]

Tesla's probably not too concerned with the last 5% of the population in the Canadian hinterlands. Maybe others can serve that market.

I'm not sure if they have mobile service tech limits, but those "rangers" as they call them can solve a lot of problems.

Of course all standard stuff like tires and brakes can be done by anybody. We're really talking about edge case repairs here.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

I think the solution is to make "partner networks" - basically a system where a third party company can be authorized by Tesla to be/host a small scale Tesla sale & service point. Sort of like how FedEx will have random convenience stores be FedEx "service points" in addition to actual FedEx stores, or how pharmacies will host Canada Post outlets. The Tesla company itself can operate flagship stores in major cities as per the current model, while these third party networks can fill in the market in smaller cities and towns that are far away from these major cities.

This could probably make the difference:

Right to repair bill introduced in Canada

Automotive Industries Association of Canada joins the global vehicle right to repair movement

With the availability of special tools and vehicle-specific software, a private shop could make themselves a post-warranty "Tesla specialist" to serve smaller communities, etc.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

This could probably make the difference:

Right to repair bill introduced in Canada

Automotive Industries Association of Canada joins the global vehicle right to repair movement

With the availability of special tools and vehicle-specific software, a private shop could make themselves a post-warranty "Tesla specialist" to serve smaller communities, etc.

Interesting. My local shop has been saying that they might have to assess and reduce the makes they work on, due to the costs involved in supporting so many different manufacturers. I wonder if this would help address that issue.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

This could probably make the difference:

Right to repair bill introduced in Canada

Automotive Industries Association of Canada joins the global vehicle right to repair movement

With the availability of special tools and vehicle-specific software, a private shop could make themselves a post-warranty "Tesla specialist" to serve smaller communities, etc.

This would be amazing. In theory, EVs actually should be largely easier to fix on the mechanical side with less specialized tooling. The problem that I see is software. No company will give access to code. I wonder how that gets squared out with right to repair laws. On the flip side, software bugs are easier to fix remotely for the company.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

GM, for one, invested heavily in their X-car front-drive platform only to have to deal with countless quality and engineering issues, such as rear brake lockup.

GM of the 1970s/1980s was gonna GM. "Generally Mediocre" went the adage of the era, IIRC.

The alleged story behind the X-car rear brake fiasco:

The X-car was conceived as a 5-passenger vehicle. Thus, the parking brake was designed as a handbrake. Late in the program, marketing decided to broaden the car's appeal, so a six-passenger bench was offered. Great!

Except: Now the parking brake needs to be a foot pedal. Which changes the leverage required to activate the brake. The car fails the San Francisco hill-hold test with the new parking brake. Do they re-engineer the brake system? Put a proportioning valve in to limit rear brake lockup? Nah. That costs money.

The GM 'We somehow make band-aids more expensive than proper fixes solution'(tm): High friction brake linings. Except now the rear brakes tend to lock up under regular braking events and the car gets extremely squirrely under braking because locked wheels cause the rear to want to swap ends.

A bunch of accidents happen. People are maimed/killed. GM does an expensive recall and suffers bad press. Over 5 years, sales of the car tank. It's the 'GM Way!'(tm). Now, just imagine that with most aspects of the car.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Tesla's probably not too concerned with the last 5% of the population in the Canadian hinterlands. Maybe others can serve that market.

I'm not sure if they have mobile service tech limits, but those "rangers" as they call them can solve a lot of problems.

Of course all standard stuff like tires and brakes can be done by anybody. We're really talking about edge case repairs here.

"Last 5%" is underexaggerating the scale of the issue.

In Ontario, Tesla stores are located only in the GTA and Ottawa. About 40% of the province's population lives outside those metros.

Here in Kingston, a metro of 170,000 people, the nearest Tesla store is 200km away.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

"Last 5%" is underexaggerating the scale of the issue.

In Ontario, Tesla stores are located only in the GTA and Ottawa. About 40% of the province's population lives outside those metros.

Here in Kingston, a metro of 170,000 people, the nearest Tesla store is 200km away.

Sorry, by the last 5% I was referring to their end goal, not their current list of locations.

Yes, they are heavily urban focused, that's also where all of the demand is. That's the thing with having a unified system like they do. They know exactly who is buying their cars and where they are.

I have no doubt they will reach further into the exurbs if they feel the demand will warrant it, and everybody in the city who wants a Tesla has one.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

Interesting. My local shop has been saying that they might have to assess and reduce the makes they work on, due to the costs involved in supporting so many different manufacturers. I wonder if this would help address that issue.

I'm thinking it might. I'm not sure if cost would/could be addressed in the legislation, though. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

This would be amazing. In theory, EVs actually should be largely easier to fix on the mechanical side with less specialized tooling. The problem that I see is software. No company will give access to code. I wonder how that gets squared out with right to repair laws. On the flip side, software bugs are easier to fix remotely for the company.

I think you have a good point in that it could be less significant with EVs. Though, without legislation a company could build certain assemblies such that they can only be repaired with 'special tools' that only certified 'brand' repair shops/technicians could have access to.

From the software side of things, normally updates would be available from the company as a result of a recall or product update to address a market problem. Some updates (like navi, for example) can be downloaded by the customer to a USB drive and the customer can update on their own, free of charge. Larger software updates would have to be performed by a dealership technician, but there would be no requirement for a brick and mortar shop to do it as long as the technician had the correct hardware with software access.

From the repair side of things, the significant software requirements I've seen tend to be related to repair/maintenance of non-drivetrain stuff, like signalling the electric park brake to go into maintenance position so that rear brake pads can be replaced, or diagnosing power window problems, A/C control stuff, etc. Typically this is not available for newer models, but is attainable for models that are "X" years old (not sure of the limits to availability).

I'm actually a little confused about said legislation, as I recall that there had already been some legislation many years ago that allowed at least some of this to be available... but that may have only been "service information". Perhaps, with modern vehicles being completely software controlled, a new level of legislation is now required.

[urbandreamer]

I think TSLA is going to retest the lows soon, possibly double bottom at $125 or ideally, fill that gap at $78. The reality is cars are expensive, a lot of people that wanted an electric vehicle have bought in, the new entrants will likely attract trade ins and some new buyers, but overall the market share for electric vehicles will likely hover around 40% for a decade. EV are ultimately luxury toys for the upper middle class/wealthy.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Looks like there will be a new Tesla facility opening in Nova Scotia soon:

https://haligonia.ca/charge-it-tesla...tmouth-291179/

There will be a showroom, a service area, and office space when the building is complete, according to a permit filed with the city. The building was built in 1989, but was renovated in 2018, and has 150 parking spaces. The showroom will feature Tesla’s full lineup of vehicles, including the Model 3, Model Y and Roadster.

The new Service Center will be a welcomed addition for owners in the area. There are now about 850 Teslas in Nova Scotia, up from the last estimate of about 750 in January.

Another article:
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tes...x-nova-scotia/

Tesla is expanding into Atlantic Canada in a big way, recently signing a lease on a 60,000 square foot building in Dartmouth, just outside of Halifax, Nova Scotia. The deal comes more than two years after the first job postings hinted at the automaker opening a retail location in the province.

Tesla will be moving into 236 Brownlow Avenue, the former home of Lawtons Drugs, as reported by All Nova Scotia. Avison Young director Michael Brown confirmed Tesla will be occupying the entire building, which according to the most recent lease listing comes in at 60,739 square feet.

This would put it on par with the Tesla showroom under development in CF Lime Ridge Mall in Hamilton, Ontario, which was billed as the automaker’s largest location in Canada at more than 60,000 square feet.

The building will require $1.3 million worth of renovations, according to a permit filed with the city. When complete will feature a showroom, service area, and office space for employees. According to the lease listing the building was constructed in 1989 but renovated in 2018, and features 150 parking stalls.

[mapleleaf66]

This is one of the more interesting threads on Skyscraper. Considering how much car culture has impacted society over the last 100 years, it may be one of the biggest changes in how we ultimately get around.

I live in Edmonton. It gets cold here sometimes. I'm thinking this will be one of the most pressing issues people here have with EV's, how it will handle the cold with regard to reduced range. When I park outside in extreme cold (below -25) I usually plug in my car. Every car I've ever owned has come equipped with a block heater. Do EV's come with block heaters (or battery warmers) and how would a very cold night affect it if it does not come with one?

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by mapleleaf66

This is one of the more interesting threads on Skyscraper. Considering how much car culture has impacted society over the last 100 years, it may be one of the biggest changes in how we ultimately get around.

I live in Edmonton. It gets cold here sometimes. I'm thinking this will be one of the most pressing issues people here have with EV's, how it will handle the cold with regard to reduced range. When I park outside in extreme cold (below -25) I usually plug in my car. Every car I've ever owned has come equipped with a block heater. Do EV's come with block heaters and how would a very cold night affect it if it does not come with one?

A block heater is for keeping the oil in an internal combustion engine from becoming too viscous and not properly lubricating the engine which can preventing it from starting or cause damage. An EV doesn't use since it uses electric motors rather than an engine with moving parts. Electric motors work by creating electric fields with attractive or repulsive forces. Cold affects EVs by causing the batteries to weaken which affects range. And also because people need more heating and defrosting which also draws power, plus cold air is denser and makes for more air resistance which is mostly an issue on the highway.

It can definitely help to keep an EV plugged in overnight when it's really cold because you can pre-warm and defrost the car which avoids drawing from the batter. And most EVs have battery management features that keep the battery in the optimal temperature range, but that also uses some power.

Many people charge their EV overnight anyway so not much of an issue for them. And even those who don't wouldn't have much of an issue unless going longer distances on the highway. The range of most newer EVs is great enough that shorter trips around town won't be affected.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

A block heater is for keeping the oil in an internal combustion engine from becoming too viscous and not properly lubricating the engine which can preventing it from starting or cause damage. An EV doesn't use since it uses electric motors rather than an engine with moving parts. Electric motors work by creating electric fields with attractive or repulsive forces. Cold affects EVs by causing the batteries to weaken which affects range. And also because people need more heating and defrosting which also draws power, plus cold air is denser and makes for more air resistance which is mostly an issue on the highway.

It can definitely help to keep an EV plugged in overnight when it's really cold because you can pre-warm and defrost the car which avoids drawing from the batter. And most EVs have battery management features that keep the battery in the optimal temperature range, but that also uses some power.

Many people charge their EV overnight anyway so not much of an issue for them. And even those who don't wouldn't have much of an issue unless going longer distances on the highway. The range of most newer EVs is great enough that shorter trips around town won't be affected.

It's pretty easy to design electronics to be able to function normally in cold weather if that's actually a design consideration. Phased array satellite dishes, for example, which need to be constantly powered and also need to operate in polar regions, can operate at -40C without issue.

I do think there is some concern that early version EVs might be suffering from "California-itis" and won't be designed to reflect winter weather, but that's the sort of growing pain that I would imagine to be quickly fixed as a product matures.

That story someone posted a few pages back of an early release Rivian getting stuck in snow is an example. I doubt that will still be a problem for 2027 model year Rivians (assuming Rivian survives and scales up).

[Acajack]

Among the selling points of BEVs is worry-free cold weather starting and so far mine has delivered. Even at -35 like we got for a few days.

In terms of plugging it in it's as others have said: most people typically plug it in at night anyway.

You don't really need to do pre-conditioning (ie warming it up when plugged in so you use the house's power instead of the battery) if you're just driving around town, as even on the coldest days you'll be well under the range you'll be getting if you're just driving around your area. But if you are doing a longer trip out of town on a really cold day it's worth it to pre-condition a warm-up when plugged in based on your departure time. You'll gain some km of range that way as your battery won't have to expend lots of energy blowing hot air to warm up all those cubic metres of space inside the car.

It's even better if you can do the pre-conditioning in a heated garage.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

It's pretty easy to design electronics to be able to function normally in cold weather if that's actually a design consideration. Phased array satellite dishes, for example, which need to be constantly powered and also need to operate in polar regions, can operate at -40C without issue.

I do think there is some concern that early version EVs might be suffering from "California-itis" and won't be designed to reflect winter weather, but that's the sort of growing pain that I would imagine to be quickly fixed as a product matures.

Early EVs didn't have thermal management systems. This is why range dropped substantially in the winter. Batteries do have an optimal temperature range and do need to be heated in the Canadian winter. But they also just heat up as you drive, so no need to plug in like a block heater. People plug in BEVs in the winter so that the thermal management system can keep the battery usably warm without giving up lots of range (caused by vampire draw to keep the battery warm).

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

That story someone posted a few pages back of an early release Rivian getting stuck in snow is an example. I doubt that will still be a problem for 2027 model year Rivians (assuming Rivian survives and scales up).

That incident is not winter specific. It's just how the transmission protections were designed. The same thing could have happened while offroading. It's one of those early adopter problems that they'll iron out.