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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 4:51 PM
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In your view, is Salt Lake a city of 1.2 million or 2.7 million?

We are currently having this discussion in the SLC Development News Thread over on the Mountain West subforum, but I'm curious to get more diverse perspectives. Here's a selection of the points made so far:

Quote:
Originally Posted by locolife View Post
I'm from SLC and always cheer for it to do well, enjoy all the great progress downtown. But I have to throw some love out to Phoenix, as my new hometown for a long time now. The SLC CSA has about 3 million and Phoenix has about 5 million, so PHX is about 1.7x the size of SLC. It's bigger here but not that much bigger and it wasn't all that long ago that SLC was larger than Phoenix but it's grown fast in the valley of the sun.
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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
This comes off as cherry picking to me. Phoenix CSA is 5 million while SLC CSA is 2.6 million, so it's more like 1.9x. Phoenix metro is 4.8 million while SLC metro is 1.2 million, 4x larger. Phoenix proper is 1.6 million while SLC proper is 200k, 8x larger. Phoenix proper represents 32% of its CSA population. SLC proper is only 7.7% of its CSA.

The last number is really noteworthy. The SLC government has barely more political influence than any other city on the Wasatch Front thanks to its limited geographical boundaries..
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Originally Posted by locolife View Post
So I’m “cherry picking” the Combined Statistical Population? Which infers that your argument is DT SLC would be exactly the same as it is now if it wasn’t part of a nearly 2.7M CSA? Sorry not buying that at all. It’s a contiguous region and SLC is the center of it all. PHX actually splits urbanity with Tempe quite a bit here, it’s home ASU is which is an economic gorilla .
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Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
Do you really see SLC as a peer city with St. Louis or Pittsburgh? Or larger than Las Vegas and Kansas City? Do you really think Phoenix is only 2x the size of SLC? To me that only makes sense in the most myopic view.

CSA is almost always misleading in city comparisons. Urban area is a better metric. Phoenix is 4x larger by that standard.
Quote:
Originally Posted by locolife View Post
Yes, you’re on this thread a lot, do you really think a lot of what gets discussed on here such as sports team expansions, the all star game, the airport, front runner expansion, and new employers ignore Provo and Ogden as sources of employees or disposable income because they’re not in the same “urban area” or “MSA” as Salt Lake City? Of course not.

It’s a 100+ mile stretch of contiguous development comprising a population of 2.8 million. SLC is a peer to KC, PIT and STL with slightly more people. And why wouldn’t that be a good thing, especially to a development focused thread?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
Provo and Ogden have largely developed separately from SLC. People from these places don't typically tell outsiders that they're "from Salt Lake" in the same way that people from the Salt Lake Valley do. There is a real qualitative difference there and it's strongly correlated to geography. The fact that they're now, within the last decade or two, abutting each other with sprawl doesn't automatically make it all Salt Lake by default. In the same way, I don't think Boulder should be considered part of Denver or Baltimore to be part of DC. These are distinct places.

Further, SLC just does not pull the weight of a city of 2.6 million people on a national level. You can pretend it does and make value judgements about that ("isn't that good?"), but at the end of the day no one seriously thinks of SLC as a larger city than Kansas City or Las Vegas. That's why most people in this thread think SLC is not going to get an NFL or MLB team anytime soon. That's why SLC isn't considered an important-enough media market for the Big 10 to consider adding AAU-member University of Utah. That's why SLC has zero Fortune 500 company headquarters and zero 500 ft towers.

SLC is truly more like a Richmond or a Buffalo right now in both characteristics and behavior. The scenery is better and the culture is different, but it's got a lot more in common with those places than it does with the likes of St. Louis and Charlotte.
Clearly, I am in the former camp. What do you think? Is SLC a peer to places like KC and Pittsburgh or not?
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  #2  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:09 PM
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Personally I give more weight to urban areas than city propers, metros areas or economic regions like the CSA when discussing city size. So if the Phoenix UA is 4x larger than SLC's then I'm more inclined to go with that. Yes the other metrics can be more valuable for certain things like determining potential market for pro sports teams since the business can attract people from other nearby communities. But a market being larger due to nearby communities doesn't equate to the largest city within that market being larger itself. I'd just consider it to be in a more populous region.
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  #3  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:16 PM
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There's no single answer. Everything's a gray area, and much depends on why you're asking.

Sports fan base? Workforce?

I'd assume that the average person closer-in will participate more, regardless of what you're counting. You're more likely to go to a Jazz game if you live within 10 miles.

That said, a lot depends on the quality of connections. I'd give you a little extra credit since you have commuter rail from Provo to Ogden for example.
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:17 PM
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Not really the right person to ask, but, ij my mind SLC is about 1.7-1.8 million.
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  #5  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:19 PM
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Based totally on my impression as a visitor for a business trip, SLC feels like it's about 2 million.

If it had 1.2 million, it would be the biggest feeling metro of its size other than, maybe NOLA, which I've never been to.

American MSAs of 1M - 1.5M that I've been to:

Tucson, Grand Rapids, Rochester, Buffalo.

Yup, SLC felt bigger than all of them in most of the ways you can size these kinds of places up: more impressive downtown, better transit, bigger airport, bigger highway system.
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  #6  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:28 PM
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I have in-law family in North Ogden and recently visited there as well as spent some time in Salt Lake City. I would consider that whole area one giant Salt Lake City-centric region and overall it felt like an area of almost 3 million to me.

My in-laws don't often travel from North Ogden to Salt Lake City (actually, my brother in-law works in South Salt Lake City somewhere, so he rents an apartment for a few days a week and commutes back and forth only at the beginning and end of his work week). Every now and then they'll go to a restaurant or something in SLC, but while they don't go often, I'm certain they would consider themselves a part of the overall "metro" area. But Ogden down to Provo is so elongated, it's like 80 miles long or more of built up area. That would be like the San Tan Valley to Surprise (actually, quite a bit further) in the Phoenix area. So while these fringes may not get to the City or to the other side of the metro often, you should definitely consider it one big area.. plus as someone said, that commuter rail connects everything together.
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  #7  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:44 PM
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I've always considered the entire Wasatch Front to be a single sprawling metro area but I guess the CB has its reasons for breaking it up.

It feels about the same size as other 2m+ metros like Sacramento, Las Vegas and Austin.
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  #8  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 5:48 PM
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I'd say the SLC region feels larger than 1.2 and smaller than 2.7 million. Maybe 1.7-2 million is what I'd say it feels like. Provo and Ogden feel like their own things, but almost all of the population of the state is clustered around the Salt Lake area because it's basically the only habitable part of the state, so they've somewhat grown together. The whole state of Utah only has 3.3 million people. If SLC is 2.7 million, that's 82% of the state living in one metro area!

Now, it's been a few years since I've been there, and I know there has been impressive growth, but when I'd visit SLC, it felt MUCH smaller than my hometown of Cincinnati. Outside of Downtown, I don't think there is/was even one true urban neighborhood, and even the downtown felt fairly small (probably in part due to the tremendously wide streets). There are some hallmarks of a larger city, especially the transportation in the region. The light rail is impressive, the airport is large (more due to tourism than local market though), and the freeway network seems pretty vast. But overall, the region seems largely devoid of the urban heft one would expect from a 2.7 million metro. Then again, I guess you could say the same about Phoenix, though it definitely felt much larger than SLC to me. Another comparison would be to Denver, which has 3.3 million in its CSA. To me, Denver feels like its in an entirely different urban weight class than SLC, not just slightly larger.

Last edited by edale; Feb 23, 2023 at 6:00 PM.
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  #9  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 6:19 PM
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All good comments, thanks. This hits the crux for me:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
Personally I give more weight to urban areas than city propers, metros areas or economic regions like the CSA when discussing city size. So if the Phoenix UA is 4x larger than SLC's then I'm more inclined to go with that. Yes the other metrics can be more valuable for certain things like determining potential market for pro sports teams since the business can attract people from other nearby communities. But a market being larger due to nearby communities doesn't equate to the largest city within that market being larger itself. I'd just consider it to be in a more populous region.
I think the SLC CSA is more fragmented and decentralized, both historically and geographically, than places like Austin, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 6:21 PM
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I live in Holladay and I consider all of SL county SLC. When Im talking about going to SLC proper, I just say what neighborhood, like Sugar House, Foothill, Rio Grande, etc. I think it is a metro area of 2.7 because, in reality, it is all the same. Take a look at Calgary. It is just one big city with no official suburban cities. It just has neighborhoods. The city is just one big ball of urban sprawl, while SLC is kind of like a ball that was unraveled and put in a line. All of that was probably confusing. I used to live in Alpine and if someone out of state asks where I'm from, I say SLC. I feel like the whole front is Salt Lake in reality. Just a whole bunch of urban copy and paste.
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  #11  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 6:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Atlas View Post
We are currently
Clearly, I am in the former camp. What do you think? Is SLC a peer to places like KC and Pittsburgh or not?

I think SLC feels about half the size of PHX, Their CSA stretches north to south over a big geographic area and the Phoenix CSA is new and virtually identical to its MSA

I don't like that CSA's and MSA"s are tied to counties because out west it creates some wacky shit with its massive counties.
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  #12  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 6:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLCHenry View Post
I live in Holladay and I consider all of SL county SLC. When Im talking about going to SLC proper, I just say what neighborhood, like Sugar House, Foothill, Rio Grande, etc. I think it is a metro area of 2.7 because, in reality, it is all the same. Take a look at Calgary. It is just one big city with no official suburban cities. It just has neighborhoods. The city is just one big ball of urban sprawl, while SLC is kind of like a ball that was unraveled and put in a line. All of that was probably confusing. I used to live in Alpine and if someone out of state asks where I'm from, I say SLC. I feel like the whole front is Salt Lake in reality. Just a whole bunch of urban copy and paste.
Calgary literally is one city though. SLC is technically a city of 200k in a metro filled with other cities.

You can make a strong case for Holladay being greater SLC. I don't think the same case can be made for Ogden.
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 6:48 PM
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Some quick comparison the farthest point of the SLC CSA is Logan to Provo with a 2hr and 15 minute drive.

The Farthest pints in the PHX CSA is Florence to Morristown with about 1hr 45-minute drive.

About a 35-40 miles more for SLC
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  #14  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 7:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Obadno View Post
Some quick comparison the farthest point of the SLC CSA is Logan to Provo with a 2hr and 15 minute drive.

The Farthest pints in the PHX CSA is Florence to Morristown with about 1hr 45-minute drive.

About a 35-40 miles more for SLC
I'm pretty sure Logan isn't in the CSA. Id say the real last towns that have a large enough population to measure are Bringham City and Santa Quin which is also a 1hr and 45-minute drive.
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 9:56 PM
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It has been about 13 years since I actually lived in the Salt Lake City metro. I lived in Alpine, Provo, the east bench of SLC proper, and immediately north above downtown Salt Lake City. During my down times of the year, I would make my way up the Cottonwood Canyons or over to Park City regularly. It was all one big very accessible metro to me. I love the topography of the area and the endless choice of stunning scenery from all its districts and corners. I would hope to be able to retire part-time there someday. If I hadn't kept in constant touch with the area I would have been blown away by its transformation and expansion over this past decade.

If you're traveling from west to east on I-80 such as the common skiers' route from the airport to the mouth of Parley's Canyon then Salt Lake would certainly seem like a metro of around 1.2 million. However, when traveling I-15 from south to north, Payson to Ogden it is easy to feel like a sprawling interconnected mass that is quickly approaching 3 million.

As far as the feel of Downtown Salt Lake City goes, it is only over the past 15 or so years that it is reclaiming its former pre-60s vibrancy and density. As with most U.S. cities, its downtown-centric feel was somewhat hollowed out and traded for the trendy idea of the malls and suburbs.

Downtown is now experiencing a historic buildup. Give it another ten years. Its stunning location, being at the focal point of one of the top job growth and business dynamic CSA's, its continued focus on its well-rounded transportation infrastructure, mass transit development of trolley, light rail, and the double tracking of its Front Runner reaching out to it many MSA/CSA towns and cities, who knows how much bigger and denser downtown will feel. Ever taller towers will continue to be built along certain corridors downtown. However, there is a psyche in Salt Lake that prefers a human scale of mid-rise over too much of the concrete canyon effect. I predict that while downtown will become very dense and vibrant, it will be more about the 6 to 15-story range with the 400-600 plus footers lining a limited number of central corridors.

Again as far as the overall feel of the size of the MSA/CSA it depends on whether you're traveling I-80 or I-15. Right now it definitely feels twice as big if you're on I-15 navigating its north/south layout.

Last edited by delts145; Feb 23, 2023 at 10:22 PM.
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 10:11 PM
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It's a city of 1.179 million. Here's my argument
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 10:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLCHenry View Post
I'm pretty sure Logan isn't in the CSA. Id say the real last towns that have a large enough population to measure are Bringham City and Santa Quin which is also a 1hr and 45-minute drive.
Yeah, Logan is very much its own separate micropolitan valley separated by its own very distinct wild canyon and forrests. The Wasatch Back like Park City and Heber with their much wider more open canyon and ever-developing flow of villages and resort cores has much more of a connected feel to Salt Lake City itself as the population continues to expand. Like you said, Santaquin and Brigham City probably even Nephi will connect up seamlessly with the greater Wasatch Front eventually. This will happen especially given a bright future for the double tracking of Front Runner.

Last edited by delts145; Feb 23, 2023 at 10:45 PM.
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Old Posted Feb 23, 2023, 11:30 PM
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The Wasatch front is basically 3 million ppl in my eyes. Its the capital of the great basin.
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Old Posted Feb 24, 2023, 9:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cirrus View Post
It's a city of 1.179 million. Here's my argument
We're not asking about the city definition, we're talking about regional size. This is what drives things like media market, pro-sports existence/expansion, airport size, major employment decisions, and so on...

Interesting though that you'd define SLC City as basically the entire SLC MSA though.
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Old Posted Feb 24, 2023, 9:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by delts145 View Post
It has been about 13 years since I actually lived in the Salt Lake City metro. I lived in Alpine, Provo, the east bench of SLC proper, and immediately north above downtown Salt Lake City. During my down times of the year, I would make my way up the Cottonwood Canyons or over to Park City regularly. It was all one big very accessible metro to me. I love the topography of the area and the endless choice of stunning scenery from all its districts and corners. I would hope to be able to retire part-time there someday. If I hadn't kept in constant touch with the area I would have been blown away by its transformation and expansion over this past decade.

If you're traveling from west to east on I-80 such as the common skiers' route from the airport to the mouth of Parley's Canyon then Salt Lake would certainly seem like a metro of around 1.2 million. However, when traveling I-15 from south to north, Payson to Ogden it is easy to feel like a sprawling interconnected mass that is quickly approaching 3 million.

As far as the feel of Downtown Salt Lake City goes, it is only over the past 15 or so years that it is reclaiming its former pre-60s vibrancy and density. As with most U.S. cities, its downtown-centric feel was somewhat hollowed out and traded for the trendy idea of the malls and suburbs.

Downtown is now experiencing a historic buildup. Give it another ten years. Its stunning location, being at the focal point of one of the top job growth and business dynamic CSA's, its continued focus on its well-rounded transportation infrastructure, mass transit development of trolley, light rail, and the double tracking of its Front Runner reaching out to it many MSA/CSA towns and cities, who knows how much bigger and denser downtown will feel. Ever taller towers will continue to be built along certain corridors downtown. However, there is a psyche in Salt Lake that prefers a human scale of mid-rise over too much of the concrete canyon effect. I predict that while downtown will become very dense and vibrant, it will be more about the 6 to 15-story range with the 400-600 plus footers lining a limited number of central corridors.

Again as far as the overall feel of the size of the MSA/CSA it depends on whether you're traveling I-80 or I-15. Right now it definitely feels twice as big if you're on I-15 navigating its north/south layout.
That is an interesting perspective on the North/South versus more likely to be traveled by a tourist layout on an East/West comparison. The fact that regional transit connects Ogden through Provo tells me that that it's a cohesive region and the mere fact that a county line designates Provo as a separate MSA than SLC is utterly pointless.
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