Northern Gateway hopes dashed as Canada moves to ban oil tankers off B.C. coast

[Sheba]

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's federal government is following through on an election promise to ban crude oil tanker traffic off the coast of northern British Columbia, a move which observers say would effectively kill the Northern Gateway pipeline.

Trudeau published his mandate letters to each of member of his cabinet Friday and asked Transport Minister Marc Garneau to "formalize a moratorium on crude oil tanker traffic on British Columbia's North Coast, working in collaboration with the Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard, the Minister of Natural Resources and the Minister of Environment and Climate Change to develop an approach."

Vancouver-based energy lawyer with Watson Goepel LLP Warren Brazier said a moratorium on crude tankers off B.C.'s North Coast "would impact, definitely, the Gateway project."

Enbridge, which did not immediately respond to a request for comment, received regulatory approval for its 1,100-kilometre pipeline between Alberta and Kitimat, B.C. in 2014. The company had been planning to build a pipeline at a cost of $7.9 billion to export unrefined crude oil off the coast of B.C.

Brazier said the way the mandate letter is worded, there could still be room to export refined crude oil from the North Coast as B.C. newspaper executive David Black has proposed with his Kitimat Clean project.

Garneau did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/en...-off-b-c-coast

[Jebby]

Wow, let's kill thousands of jobs!

[Pinion]

Misleading headline. Oil tankers are still allowed on the south coast.

[csbvan]

This project was never going to happen. The legal battles would have made it untenable given the T'silqotin decision. It makes political sense to kill it too. The Conservatives got demolished in BC, and lost more votes in this province than anywhere else in Canada, almost combined. I don't think that it is smart politics to attempt to ram a pipeline through BC that most British Columbians opposed, and that doesn't provide any benefit to BC.

[BodomReaper]

Awesome, dozens of supertankers per week navigate our coast back and forth to Alaska, but let's ban the export of our own oil.

Also no one has made a case why the north coast is inherently more sacred than the south coast. Let's ban tankers here too and cut-off Vancouver Island.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by csbvan

This project was never going to happen. The legal battles would have made it untenable given the T'silqotin decision. It makes political sense to kill it too. The Conservatives got demolished in BC, and lost more votes in this province than anywhere else in Canada, almost combined. I don't think that it is smart politics to attempt to ram a pipeline through BC that most British Columbians opposed, and that doesn't provide any benefit to BC.

Firstly, Enbridge's proposed Northern Gateway pipeline NEB approval had 209 conditions attached to same. And those conditions were extremely difficult/if not impossible to meet inclusive of several relating to FN support.

BTW, the Cons still came in 2nd place in BC at 30% popular vote share (as opposed to 46% in 2011) but that had more to do with Harper himself and his style of governing than anything else. I know many 2011 Con voters myself that switched to the Liberals in 2015 as a result.

Had nothing to do with "pipelines". In fact, that issue remained at the bottom of the list in terms of BC voters "Top of Mind Issues".

In terms of BC opposition to the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline, it has consistently had a 33% "Strongly" disapprove polling figure the only figure that really matters. And these folk spread their votes around to the Greens, Liberals, and NDP.

As for the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning, it has consistently even had a lower level of opposition with a 23% "Strongly" disapprove polling figure.

As for economic benefits of just the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline?

1. A $6.5 billion construction project over several years employing 3,000 building trades over several years as well as BC suppliers;

2. 560 long-term BC jobs in terms of operations;

3. $1.2 billion in provincial tax revenues for BC over 30 years;

4. Increase in property tax revenue for affected BC municipalities by $36 million/annum;

5. And, based upon the BC gov't's 4 conditions, would also likely see a $1 or so tariff for every barrel of oil flowing through same, which could equate to perhaps another roughly $180 million into BC gov't coffers per annum;

Again, the proposed Northern Gateway greenfield pipeline project to NW BC is dead. But Kinder Morgan's proposed brownfield pipeline twinning project to the SW BC coast is very much alive and will likely be green-lighted at the end of the proverbial day.

[csbvan]

I know that you disagree that pipelines played a part. I think that they did. I think that it left a bad taste in the mouths of British Columbians that lasted into this election, and I believe that is reflected in the Conservative's huge loss of support here. I haven't yet seen a counter explanation to why the loss in support for the Conservatives in BC was vastly sharper than in the rest of the country. Everywhere in the country had a strong anti-Harper sentiment, so why the much bigger drop in support here?

Also yes, the Conservatives may have finished 2nd, but they had the worst showing ever, or close to it, for a united Conservative Party in this province. Moreover the Conservatives did worse in BC than in any other province West of Quebec. Meanwhile the NDP and Greens did better in BC than anywhere else in the country.

[casper]

What can you say other than it is silly decision.

You have no shortage of tanker traffic between Alaska and other parts and you ban tankers that have economic benefit to Canada.

Many of those conditions that we have been put in place with improved navigation etc. would benefit the environment and the countries ability to respond.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by csbvan

I know that you disagree that pipelines played a part. I think that they did. I think that it left a bad taste in the mouths of British Columbians that lasted into this election, and I believe that is reflected in the Conservative's huge loss of support here. I haven't yet seen a counter explanation to why the loss in support for the Conservatives in BC was vastly sharper than in the rest of the country. Everywhere in the country had a strong anti-Harper sentiment, so why the much bigger drop in support here?

Also yes, the Conservatives may have finished 2nd, but they had the worst showing ever, or close to it, for a united Conservative Party in this province. Moreover the Conservatives did worse in BC than in any other province West of Quebec. Meanwhile the NDP and Greens did better in BC than anywhere else in the country.

Firstly, BC as a whole has a different media and different perceptions than the prairies, for example. While overall BC is politically centre/centre-right it is also socially liberal as opposed to the fed Cons who came across as arrogant and moving rightward socially.

The fed BC riding of Kelowna-Lake Country certainly didn't elect a Liberal for the first time since 1968 because of the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline. Even the neighbouring riding of Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola saw the Liberals "barely" lose to the Con incumbent. These ridings typically have small "c" conservative demographics and again extremely doubtful that NGP factored into their decision-making at the ballot box. At all.

Actually I thought that the Greens would do much better on the southern half of Van Isle - a unique micro political climate that has suitable "green" demographics. Problem was, as the Insights West opinion poll (or exit poll) on e-day of actual BC voters corroborates, is that 44% of NDP voters in BC only selected the NDP as their 2nd choice with their first choice either Liberal or Green. Had these NDP voters selected their first choice, would have made a major difference to the BC electoral map on e-day.

BTW, the only evidence that I have ever seen of an impact of an oil pipeline at the ballot box is during the 2013 BC provincial election. Then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix publicly stated that the BC NDP would oppose the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning and turning Vancouver "into an oil port" - the "Kinder Morgan Surprise".

Looking at the final riding results of the BC 2013 provincial election, the BC NDP lost popular vote share in very riding in BC's interior, the Fraser Valley and the Metro Vancouver suburbs as a result.

The BC NDP only received a 2% - 5% bump in the inner city Vancouver ridings of Van-Point Grey, Van-Fairview, Van-False Creek, etc. which all abut English Bay. The BC NDP also saw a similar 2% - 5% bump in the North Shore ridings, which also abut English Bay. That's about as far as political impact at the ballot that these pipelines get.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by casper

What can you say other than it is silly decision.

You have no shortage of tanker traffic between Alaska and other parts and you ban tankers that have economic benefit to Canada.

Many of those conditions that we have been put in place with improved navigation etc. would benefit the environment and the countries ability to respond.

Firstly, JT and the fed Liberals promised a moratorium, during the election campaign, on future oil tanker traffic along the NW BC coast. So did the NDP. No surprises here. However, they both left the door wide-open for the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning to the SW coast.

Funny. Alaskan oil supertankers have been plying the waters off the BC coast since circa 1977, past the east coast of Van Isle, past Victoria, through the Strait of Juan De Fuca and past the Gulf Islands enroute to oil refineries at Anacortes, WA and Cherry Point, WA.

From my backyard (as the crow flies) I can even see the upper portions of the distillation towers of the Cherry Point, WA oil refinery in the far distance where the Alaskan oil supertankers dock.

OTOH, from my backyard (and MUCH closer), I also continually see the BNSF 110-unit black behemoth oil tanker trains roll by the White Rock waterfront carrying highly-flammable light crude from the Bakken Basin in North Dakota. And yep, CN also sends these same oil tanker trains from AB down the Fraser Canyon. These oil tanker trains represent the highest human and environmental risk IMHO.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Firstly, BC as a whole has a different media and different perceptions than the prairies, for example. While overall BC is politically centre/centre-right it is also socially liberal as opposed to the fed Cons who came across as arrogant and moving rightward socially.

The fed BC riding of Kelowna-Lake Country certainly didn't elect a Liberal for the first time since 1968 because of the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline. Even the neighbouring riding of Central Okanagan—Similkameen—Nicola saw the Liberals "barely" lose to the Con incumbent. These ridings typically have small "c" conservative demographics and again extremely doubtful that NGP factored into their decision-making at the ballot box. At all.

Actually I thought that the Greens would do much better on the southern half of Van Isle - a unique micro political climate that has suitable "green" demographics. Problem was, as the Insights West opinion poll (or exit poll) on e-day of actual BC voters corroborates, is that 44% of NDP voters in BC only selected the NDP as their 2nd choice with their first choice either Liberal or Green. Had these NDP voters selected their first choice, would have made a major difference to the BC electoral map on e-day.

BTW, the only evidence that I have ever seen of an impact of an oil pipeline at the ballot box is during the 2013 BC provincial election. Then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix publicly stated that the BC NDP would oppose the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning and turning Vancouver "into an oil port" - the "Kinder Morgan Surprise".

Looking at the final riding results of the BC 2013 provincial election, the BC NDP lost popular vote share in very riding in BC's interior, the Fraser Valley and the Metro Vancouver suburbs as a result.

The BC NDP only received a 2% - 5% bump in the inner city Vancouver ridings of Van-Point Grey, Van-Fairview, Van-False Creek, etc. which all abut English Bay. The BC NDP also saw a similar 2% - 5% bump in the North Shore ridings, which also abut English Bay. That's about as far as political impact at the ballot that these pipelines get.

Again, you haven't convinced me. I just don't see an explanation to why so many more BC Conservative voters switched parties compared to the rest of the country. In fact, I don't disagree with much of that analysis, but it doesn't, in any way, explain why the Cons lost 160k votes in BC and 90k in the entire rest of Canada. Far more British Columbians dropped the Conservatives than Ontarians. We can agree to disagree on the reasons, and it is difficult to know what the exact reasons are. But I'm not swayed from the theory that British Columbians felt slighted by having pipelines rammed through the province for the benefit of Alberta with no consultation. I think the distaste from that stuck, even if the issue was no longer at the forefront of Most BCers thoughts.

[casper]

Originally Posted by csbvan

Again, you haven't convinced me. I just don't see an explanation to why so many more BC Conservative voters switched parties compared to the rest of the country. In fact, I don't disagree with much of that analysis, but it doesn't, in any way, explain why the Cons lost 160k votes in BC and 90k in the entire rest of Canada. Far more British Columbians dropped the Conservatives than Ontarians. We can agree to disagree on the reasons, and it is difficult to know what the exact reasons are. But I'm not swayed from the theory that British Columbians felt slighted by having pipelines rammed through the province for the benefit of Alberta with no consultation. I think the distaste from that stuck, even if the issue was no longer at the forefront of Most BCers thoughts.

Some of the other factors.....

Metro Vancouver (where a large number of votes are from) has strong percentage of first and second generation immigrants populations, especially from visible minority communities. The conservatives struggle some time with generating the perception they are inclusive. I think generally they try to be, they just have some candidates that just are not.

Rural BC is forestry and farming dominated. You have the conservatives being at the for front of taking down the marketing boards and other programs that protect farmers.

The conservaties spent as much if not more time and money attacking the Liberals and NDP as articulating a plan of their own. I don't thin that went over very well.

[urbancanadian]

I was never too thrilled about the Northern Gateway pipeline and the risks it brought with it, especially considering Enbridge's track record, of all the companies that could have been involved. I've always felt that Northern Gateway was extremely unlikely to be built. I also agreed strongly with Christy Clark's five conditions.

Trans Mountain, on the other hand, I am much more comfortable with, given that it is simply twinning a pipeline on an existing route. In all its years of existence, I don't recall any spills, other than the one in Burnaby - but wasn't that caused by an excavator or something that hit it? How many other spills have there been?

-------------------------

Hey Stingray, I have a question I hope you can answer. When they poll British Columbians on issues such as support for a pipeline or something similar, what method(s) do they use? And which pollsters do you think are more reliable?

I don't mean polls regarding which party a person would vote for or the favourability of a politician. Just questions about specific issues. Just curious.

[jsbertram]

this decision doesn't impact the NatGas pipelines, the LNG plants on the coast and the LNG shipping.

I can see NatGas from the prairies being piped to the west coast to he turned into LNG and shipped to Asia, and prairie Oil being piped east to the Irving refineries and shipped where-ever it is needed.

NatGas and Oil will get to their markets by whatever means possible.