BC Population

[zahav]

I couldn't find another thread that discussed this, so thought it would be most relevant to economic related factors and post it here.

Stats Can released the quarterly population estimates, and some really positive figures for BC. We know the economic news has been very good for some time (BC expected to be top growth leader in Canada for 2015, 2016, 2017), and that other provinces are struggling. It seems to definitely be translating into high migration figures.

BC had by far the highest interprovincial growth in Canada (net growth from movement between other provinces and BC). In fact, it was the highest growth since 1995 for the province. We were the only jurisdiction to gain population from everywhere else in Canada (we gained more people from each province and territory than we lost). Especially noticeable, we gained 2,316 from Alberta, the most since the early 90's. Below are the total net figures:

BC: +6,315
AB: +1,234
ON: +1,207
NL: -28
NWT: -33
NVT: -117
YK: -310
PEI: -354
NS: -593
SK: -639
NB: -1,107
MB: -1,937
QC: -3,638

Unlike international migration, which usually isn't tied to economic performance, interprovincial migration is very much dictated by current economic conditions (ie. Quebec has always received lots of immigration despite underwhelming economy for decades, and Ontario has always had a high number even when other provinces outperformed it). The fact that BC is so far ahead of 2nd place Alberta and Ontario (6,300 vs. 1,200 for them) says a lot. It really feels like the province is a clear leader right now in a lot of measures such as employment growth (highest in the country), retail growth, tourism, tech, and now population increase. I know obviously not everything is rosy, but we are definitely more than holding our own here in BC. Link to the full report below:

A blurb direct from the Stats Can press release:
"According to preliminary estimates, net interprovincial migration was positive in only three provinces: Ontario (+0.01%, or 1,200), Alberta (+0.03%, or 1,200) and British Columbia (+0.13%, or 6,300). For the latter two provinces, net migration changed a great deal between the third quarters of 2014 and 2015. Net interprovincial migration doubled in British Columbia (from +3,600 to +6,300)—the highest level since 1995. In Alberta, however, it was divided by more than six from the previous level (from +8,100 to +1,200)"

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-002-...015003-eng.pdf

[Stingray2004]

Thanks for the info! Excellent post!

[GeeCee]

Interesting considering how often I hear about young people leaving Vancouver because of the high cost of living.

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by GeeCee

Interesting considering how often I hear about young people leaving Vancouver because of the high cost of living.

I think you're probably right about people leaving Vancouver itself, but they probably stay in BC, higher up the Valley, or in the Interior, Vancouver Island, and so forth.

[WarrenC12]

Good details, thanks. I wonder what those numbers look like historically. They all seem pretty low to me, is this a normal low movement year?

The 2016 census (with long form back!) should provide some interesting details. It will be after a few strong BC years.

[msmariner]

Are you sure it's not just many people moving back home because of the down turn in oil sands? Also there a lot of retiring in Alberta (and the rest of Canada) who are moving to BC.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

I think you're probably right about people leaving Vancouver itself, but they probably stay in BC, higher up the Valley, or in the Interior, Vancouver Island, and so forth.

I believe that the interior and the Island are growing much slower than Metro. I would expect over half of the interprovincial migration is coming to Vancouver. The North is growing fast, but has a small population so numbers wise it isn't a huge factor yet.

[Vin]

Well, the huge number of high-rise condo/rental construction projects around the Lower Mainland should be a strong indication that we are trying to house many more new comers, compared to other major Canadian cities outside BC. Other than Toronto, I don't think I can see so many high-density developments outside major city cores in this country.

[djmk]

Originally Posted by GeeCee

Interesting considering how often I hear about young people leaving Vancouver because of the high cost of living.

The article is about BC. There is a lot out space outside of Vancouver to move to.

[Denscity]

Good maybe Chad will stop his "Alberta is gonna surpass BC in population" doomsday clock.

[LeftCoaster]

^ I wouldn't count on it...

Originally Posted by djmk

The article is about BC. There is a lot out space outside of Vancouver to move to.

Ya but the majority of the growth is occurring in the LM, both population and economic.

[zahav]

Vancouver and BC in general have always been a preferred destination for Canadian migraants for various reasons (lifestyle, retirees, weather, etc). What is different now is that with the strong economy here, it's not just a "pretty place with mild weather" but the outlook here is better than most of Canadian. Whas happening is a perfect storm of people already wanting to come here because its "Lotusland", people coming for more jobs, as well as less people being drawn to other places in Canada. We are lucky, because places like Manitoba (and others) have a decent economy, low unemployment, and it even isnt enough to keep its own people, let along attract from other places (its sad because its a good place, yet is the worst performer of the last decade for losses in migration, 2nd only to perennial favourite Quebec

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by zahav

Vancouver and BC in general have always been a preferred destination for Canadian migraants for various reasons (lifestyle, retirees, weather, etc). What is different now is that with the strong economy here, it's not just a "pretty place with mild weather" but the outlook here is better than most of Canadian. Whas happening is a perfect storm of people already wanting to come here because its "Lotusland", people coming for more jobs, as well as less people being drawn to other places in Canada. We are lucky, because places like Manitoba (and others) have a decent economy, low unemployment, and it even isnt enough to keep its own people, let along attract from other places (its sad because its a good place, yet is the worst performer of the last decade for losses in migration, 2nd only to perennial favourite Quebec

A FIRE economy is not a strong economy.

[casper]

Originally Posted by csbvan

I believe that the interior and the Island are growing much slower than Metro. I would expect over half of the interprovincial migration is coming to Vancouver. The North is growing fast, but has a small population so numbers wise it isn't a huge factor yet.

I don't know if that is the case or not with interprovincial.

Vancouver has more foreign immigration. Places like Vancouver Island and the interior are more driven by internal migration (from the Lower Mainland or Inter provincial).

After jobs in northern BC dried up due to the downturn in the forest sector I think was a certain move of people into the Alberta oil sector. Now with that going down, I don't know how much of this people moving back "Home".

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Pinion

A FIRE economy is not a strong economy.

Are you trolling or trying to make a case that Vancouver has Finance and Insurance industries? Because we don't.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Young people almost always move to the closest major city upon graduation.

Since the largest city in Western Canada is Vancouver, it would makes sense that Vancouver would get a bulk of the migration from saskatchewan and Alberta. Especially now that those 2 provinces are struggling.

Vancouver will probably hit 3 million people by 2025

[GMasterAres]

Yah some of the confusion is "Vancouver" vs Vancouver. When people talk about moving to "Vancouver" they mean "Metro-Vancouver" aka including the outlying cities, like Burnaby, Surrey, Coquitlam, etc.

When people talk about Vancouver being un-affordable they really mean Vancouver itself excluding the outlying cities, like Burnaby, Surrey, Coquitlam, etc.

Two different things. So like was said, people leaving Vancouver due to it being un-affordable often just move out to the suburbs so are still in BC and in Metro-Vancouver or maybe the Valley (Abbotsford -> Chilliwack).

WarrenC12, as for the small number I'd imagine that is the final tally when you take into account people leaving and people coming. So the actual numbers may be greater on both sides but A + B = 6300 people.

So for example if 550,000 people left BC but 556,300 people came to BC that is a 556,300 - 550,000 = +6300 positive gain. Could explain why the numbers seem low. Made up those numbers clearly because I don't see them in the .PDF document, but that's my best guess on why the numbers seem small.

[Klazu]

Great posts all over and so happy to see the trend changing. I think BC has a lot going for itself these days and we should expect a lot of growth in the years to come. What makes me happy is that the developers seem to be prepared for this and the huge amount of major projects in progress and far in the pipeline reflects that they are not going to sit idle and have the problem pile up.

I am sure that the growth will still overtake the number of new housing built, which is why cities should really look into the problem of vacant investment houses. Also, does it make federal sense to be bringing lots of these Syrian refugees to Lower Mainland, where country's economic growth is taking place but housing is scarce. I don't believe that we have any shortage of employees at Lower Mainland, so perhaps settle more of these people in other provinces in the first place and let them re-locate later once they have established themselves in Canada.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Are you trolling or trying to make a case that Vancouver has Finance and Insurance industries? Because we don't.

Mortgages and home insurance.

Originally Posted by jhausner

Yah some of the confusion is "Vancouver" vs Vancouver. When people talk about moving to "Vancouver" they mean "Metro-Vancouver" aka including the outlying cities, like Burnaby, Surrey, Coquitlam, etc.

When people talk about Vancouver being un-affordable they really mean Vancouver itself excluding the outlying cities, like Burnaby, Surrey, Coquitlam, etc.

Two different things. So like was said, people leaving Vancouver due to it being un-affordable often just move out to the suburbs so are still in BC and in Metro-Vancouver or maybe the Valley (Abbotsford -> Chilliwack).

Disagree with this, Vancouver proper is understandably expensive, but Vancouver suburbs - with the exception of the north half of Surrey - are obscenely and illogically expensive relative to other North American cities. Like San Francisco and Manhattan are expensive but at least you can find something reasonable and still nice 45 minutes out. Not here.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Pinion

Mortgages and home insurance.



Disagree with this, Vancouver proper is understandably expensive, but Vancouver suburbs - with the exception of the north half of Surrey - are obscenely and illogically expensive relative to other North American cities. Like San Francisco and Manhattan are expensive but at least you can find something reasonable and still nice 45 minutes out. Not here.

Looking at rents in New West, surrey, Coquitlam, etc, I find them quite cheap overall. Sorry but a private 1 bedroom apartment for $800 a month isn't that expensive to me, anyone can afford that and for those who cannot, you can easily rent with 2 people, thats now only $400 a month.