CHICAGO | One Chicago | 971 FT & 574 FT | 78 & 49 FLOORS

[Khantilever]

Hate to rain on the parade but is anyone else a bit nervous about this project?

Obviously we all know this block can handle a lot of density. But, as much as JDL has successfully delivered over the past few years, a supertall is a big leap for them - and this would be a big project for any developer. And especially when you consider JDL’s somewhat tumultuous past and very centralized (and perhaps personality-driven) control I’m reminded of the pie-in-the-sky projects that failed in the late ‘00s.

[donnie]

Originally Posted by Khantilever

Hate to rain on the parade but is anyone else a bit nervous about this project?

Obviously we all know this block can handle a lot of density. But, as much as JDL has successfully delivered over the past few years, a supertall is a big leap for them - and this would be a big project for any developer. And especially when you consider JDL’s somewhat tumultuous past and very centralized (and perhaps personality-driven) control I’m reminded of the pie-in-the-sky projects that failed in the late ‘00s.

Worry wart alert!



Keep your negativity to yourself there buddy cuz we got nothing but good vibes here dude!

[left of center]

I've been somewhat worried about a market meltdown happening in the next 12 to 18 months. This bull market cycle has been going on for 9 years now, which is starting to push towards being one of the longest on record.

I just hope that all these newly approved buildings get underway (or even better, topped out) by then so we aren't left with half built concrete frame hulks in the skyline that sit like that for years, and eventually get finished with a different design and half their original intended height...






*knock on wood*

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by left of center

so we aren't left with half built concrete frame hulks in the skyline that sit like that for years

or giant holes in the earth.

[Stunnies23]

Originally Posted by left of center

I've been somewhat worried about a market meltdown happening in the next 12 to 18 months. This bull market cycle has been going on for 9 years now, which is starting to push towards being one of the longest on record.

I just hope that all these newly approved buildings get underway (or even better, topped out) by then so we aren't left with half built concrete frame hulks in the skyline that sit like that for years, and eventually get finished with a different design and half their original intended height...






*knock on wood*

With all of the quantitative easing that central banks worldwide have infused into the global money supply system, I do not foresee a lending / housing collapse in the near future. That is especially the case considering inflation is still below 2% and becuase European and Japanese central banks have not even hinted at raising rates. Speculate on!!!

[left of center]

Originally Posted by Stunnies23

With all of the quantitative easing that central banks worldwide have infused into the global money supply system, I do not foresee a lending / housing collapse in the near future. That is especially the case considering inflation is still below 2% and becuase European and Japanese central banks have not even hinted at raising rates. Speculate on!!!

The $1.5 trillion dollars of debt that the US will be adding to its already ballooning pile of debt over the next decade thanks to the GOP's tax reform may drive up interest rates regardless of all the QE. Keep in mind that the US is already in a rising interest rate environment. This, coupled with the fact that the Fed is selling off the trillions of treasuries it has amassed on its balance sheets during the financial crisis, as well as major customers of our liabilities (like China) who have been talking of buying less/selling more of their US debt holdings, and that essentially guarantees rates will be going up, despite the lack of inflation in the economy.

There may not be a worldwide lending freeze, but American lending will definitely start getting squeezed in the near future. 2018/19 are going to be very interesting years.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

or giant holes in the earth.

Touche!

[Domer2019]

Originally Posted by Stunnies23

Steely Dan: thank you for all of the hard work you out in to making this a great website! One thing that I think would help prevent all of the random off topic economic conversations on unrelated threads is if you would also include the Chicago economic and business development thread on what I consider the best landing page for all Chicago topics. If you were to add that thread to this page, http://forum.skyscraperpage.com/tags.php?tag=chicago
I think it would greatly help in reducing threads getting hijacked.

It's one click away from that, to be fair.

1. Click on your Chicago tag bookmark

2. SkyscraperPage Forum > Regional Sections > United States > Midwest

3. Boom

[Stunnies23]

Originally Posted by left of center

The $1.5 trillion dollars of debt that the US will be adding to its already ballooning pile of debt over the next decade thanks to the GOP's tax reform may drive up interest rates regardless of all the QE. Keep in mind that the US is already in a rising interest rate environment. This, coupled with the fact that the Fed is selling off the trillions of treasuries it has amassed on its balance sheets during the financial crisis, as well as major customers of our liabilities (like China) who have been talking of buying less/selling more of their US debt holdings, and that essentially guarantees rates will be going up, despite the lack of inflation in the economy.

There may not be a worldwide lending freeze, but American lending will definitely start getting squeezed in the near future. 2018/19 are going to be very interesting years.





Touche!

Japan’s debt level is much higher than the U.S., yet their interest rates are lower. China will continue to buy US treasuries since there is no better rate on AAA debt than ours. The pace of treasuries being removed from the balance sheet is quite low on a month on month basis. In the one month since tax reform was passed, 30 year treasury yields went from 2.88 on December 20th to 2.90 at the close of yesterday. The only thing I can predict with certainty is that foreign stocks, especially emerging markets, will outperform Us stocks over the next decade since US stocks are incredibly high right now. It’s risk on right now, which probably means you should rebalance your portfolio toward bonds to reflect the risk you are willing to take.
The most likely thing to slow down Chicago real estate is rising construction costs due to a shortage in labor and uncertainty over future property tax rates.

[left of center]

Not sure if we want to emulate Japan here. Their extremely high debt level (250% of GDP) is the reason they've been stuck in super low growth over the past "two lost decades". Their low interest rates are more due to the deflationary pressure on their stagnating economy.

Global trends wont necessarily save us here. The US first plunged into the housing/financial crisis back in 2008, and the world mostly kept on chugging along until about 8 to 10 months later, when the rest of the developed world also started posting negative growth numbers in 2009.

[commodore]

The banks are backing it. Hopefully that's a good enough sign.

[BVictor1]

[the urban politician]

The developer just sold two of the highest priced homes in the region. If closing a loan means that this project will need to be more equity-heavy, I don’t think they should have a problem

[KWillChicago]

Thanks for the photos bvic.

[Chicago_Forever]

http://www.chicagobusiness.com/reale...name-cathedral


JDL has received a "very strong response from investors and lenders," said JDL President Jim Letchinger, who aims to break ground by late fall. He said he expects to finance the project with a roughly $450 million construction loan, along with mezzanine financing or preferred equity.

"This is an iconic project in the city of Chicago," Letchinger said. "It will make its mark, and there are a lot of investors that like that."

At 1,011 feet, the 76-story tower would be the sixth-tallest building in Chicago. The second tower would rise 49 stories, or 654 feet.

In exchange for zoning allowing it to build such a large project, JDL has agreed to pay $13.2 million into the city's Neighborhood Opportunity Bonus fund, which is used to pay for economic development initiatives in city neighborhoods, according to the Chicago Department of Planning & Development.

To comply with the city's affordable housing ordinance, JDL also is including 22 affordable units in the project and paying $11.4 million into a city housing trust fund.

To ease traffic, JDL also agreed to pay for a variety of changes on Chicago Avenue, including the installation of new stop lights, new traffic controls, parking restrictions and new bus stops, Letchinger said. He estimated the changes will cost more than $1 million.

Letchinger aims to receive final approval for One Chicago Square at the next City Council meeting on Feb. 2

[Steely Dan]

Historical stat nerdery:

If OCS and 1000 M both manage to start construction sometime in the next 12 months or so before OBP finishes up, then it would mark the first time in chicago's history that 5 buildings over 800' tall would be simultaneously U/C in the city.

The previous high mark for that distinction was 4 buildings (Franklin center, 2 pru, 311 S wacker, and 900 N michigan), set back in the late '80s building boom.

[Domer2019]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Historical stat nerdery:

If OCS and 1000 M both manage to start construction sometime in the next 12 months or so before OBP finishes up, then it would mark the first time in chicago's history that 5 buildings over 800' tall would be simultaneously U/C in the city.

The previous high mark for that distinction was 4 buildings (Franklin center, 2 pru, 311 S wacker, and 900 N michigan), set back in the late '80s building boom.

Another window could be OCS and 1000 M topped out, Wolf Point South, 400 N LSD, and maaaaaaybe 2GP or Site I all starting construction. 6 potential.

[left of center]

Is 110 N Wacker more than 12 months from breaking ground? I know they still need to demolish the GGP building, but I don't see that as taking too long. Has it gotten full approval yet?

Edit: Never mind, I forgot that its now below 800 ft.

[chris08876]

This design is award winning. I like it far more than the Vista super tall currently rising. IMO that is.

The main tower is great. Not a fan of the podium (with the vegetation) with the shorter component next to it, but that main tower once again is stunning. Its set-backs, the facade, the almost vertical pin stripe like nature.

Would be cool if they could add another equally sized shorter tower parallel (on the podium) so it becomes a tri-tower development. On the 3rd, "new" rendering in post #493.

Well, just my opinion, but regardless, a win for Chitown.

This would look even better if it was positioned on the corner parcel @ Roosevelt and Michigan.

[untitledreality]

Originally Posted by chris08876

This design is award winning.

OCS has a lot of good things going for it, but exemplary design is not one of them. Far too disjointed in my opinion.

[Notyrview]

Yeah, award-winning, me thinks not. It's handsome maybe? I really hope there's fins or something to give it depth.