ATLANTA | Development Thread VI

[ATLMidcity]

Originally Posted by 1lifealex

Here's an interesting website for you guys to look at https://urbanize.city/atlanta/

Thanks for this link.
It's amazing what's happening in metro Atlanta.

[newuserbuckhead]

Re: Density

Looking solely at a city population or density of the central/core city certainly does a disservice when trying to compare places. The City of Atlanta ranks 37 in total city population while Jacksonville ranks 12 with nearly 80% more population. Source

However, no would in their right mind would ever put Jacksonville in the same category as Atlanta. Metro population is the best measurement. I don't agree on using CSA. There is an upper limit on the physical distance/expanse that one could consider a metro to be a single metro. Here's a fantastic youtube video discussing this.

Another way to compare cities, and I would argue this is one of the best metrics for comparing, is to look at the total amount of office space available. JLL has some fantastic figures on this that they update on a quarterly basis.

Based on this measure, Atlanta is the 8th largest city in the US, maybe 9th depending on how you calculate San Francisco vs San Jose. (I've lumped in New Jersey with New York, from a commercial leasing perspective they're separate, but for us they're the same market.)

If we take a closer look at Atlanta, we see that between Downtown, Midtown, and Buckhead, there's roughly 56M sqft of office space.

Compare that information with:
Dallas
Houston
Boston
Philadelphia

I wish the JLL reports had a geographic area size in their reports, but they don't. Costar has submarket maps for many major markets in the US. However, they don't list out the area.

I don't have time to do the calculations myself, but Atlanta's office space is considerably more spread-out than other comparable cities. Which plays into transit heavily. If we want to continue to densify, we need to focus the growth, somehow, on Downtown more than Midtown and Buckhead. But I don't see that happening anytime soon.

[briantech]

There's probably no way to calculate this, but between City Limits, MSAs and CSAs I think a true definition of a city or metro area should be defined by the area in which people commute to work. Whatever the area is that supports the free flow of commerce and labor.

No one (or at least very, very few) is driving from Chattanooga to Downtown Atlanta on a daily basis. Canton? Yes. Dahlonega? Yes. Maybe even Athens.

If you define it that way it really gets to the heart of what you're trying to measure. Chattanooga and Atlanta would stay separate entities until we had high speed commuter rail.

[Atlriser]

Briantech, what you describe is the definition of MSA by the census bureau.

[testarossa50]

Originally Posted by Atlriser

While this isn’t the forum to be discussing this, how long if ever before Chattanooga could possibly be in the CSA or Macon for that fact? Chattanooga and Atlanta MSA’s are currently separated by 1 county and are growing toward each other. Macon’s growth is heavily northward toward Forsyth as metro Atlanta steadily creeps south with all the distribution centers and housing developments along 75 between both metros.

Macon could be, but Chattanooga probably never will be (at least not in 20-30 years), absent a major shift in commuting patterns (like self-driving electric cars or something, which could make longer commutes possible).

Paradoxically, it's harder for larger cities to get swallowed up by a major growing metro than it is for smaller towns and cities. That's because the calcs are shaped by the percentage of commuters who commute into the core metro area.

The closer you get to Chattanooga, the fewer people are commuting to metro ATL and more are commuting to Chattanooga. Once you get into the city of Chattanooga, hardly anyone is commuting into metro ATL as a percentage of the total commuter base.

This is why DC and Baltimore, and SF and San Jose, remain separate metros despite being the same distance apart and far more densely developed than Dallas/Fort Worth. In the DC/BWI and SF/SJ cases, those cities are huge nerve centers of commuter activity. In DFW, everything is so spread out and the urban cores aren't all that important, so the commuter overlap is massive.

Philly and NYC are closer together than Atlanta and Chattanooga, with vastly more development between them, but there is simply no possibility of them ever merging even as CSAs. They just trade counties back and forth each census, and they even have a separate MSA in Trenton wedged between them!

Atlanta's saving grace is, weirdly, that's it's so diffuse. Once a rural county borders the Atlanta MSA, it's extremely easy for x% of that rural county to commute into "metro Atlanta" for work, even if it's just someone working in an auto repair shop the next county over or whatever. A LOT of people work in a county besides their own, especially with our small ass counties in Georgia. But once you get to a significant city, it makes kind of a wall, and it's much harder for it to get swallowed up in the Atlanta MSA. Chattanooga and Macon are decent sized cities that will be exceedingly difficult to swallow into the Atlanta MSA (for statistical purposes).

[briantech]

Originally Posted by Atlriser

Briantech, what you describe is the definition of MSA by the census bureau.

Oh. LOL neat, well ignore me then

[scania]

Based on what some of you have just stated and looking at the CSA list...they have separated Riverside/San Bernardino separate from LA metro, which is clearly not the case on any metric if you are to include Athens/Gainesville to the Atlanta CSA. That’s just one of the reasons I said the list was absurd. But that’s my opinion, in living in both metropolises.

[Martinman]

Originally Posted by Verge

The census urbanized area statistic is used to determine the core of MSAs and CSAs and is seldom used by anyone to compare city sizes-- its apparently only figured at census time-- there are no yearly updates, indicating its comparative unimportance to demographers. Still its interesting-- Atlanta still ranks about the same relative to pier cities, but it's density as a metro is substantially less--

Urban areas are not updated annually because it is calculated on data at the block level. So it cannot be found using the yearly population estimates for municipal boundaries. Other than a few exceptions, urban area rankings mirror the MSA rankings because development patterns in the US are generally similar across the country.

Originally Posted by testarossa50

Macon could be, but Chattanooga probably never will be (at least not in 20-30 years), absent a major shift in commuting patterns (like self-driving electric cars or something, which could make longer commutes possible).

Paradoxically, it's harder for larger cities to get swallowed up by a major growing metro than it is for smaller towns and cities. That's because the calcs are shaped by the percentage of commuters who commute into the core metro area.

The closer you get to Chattanooga, the fewer people are commuting to metro ATL and more are commuting to Chattanooga. Once you get into the city of Chattanooga, hardly anyone is commuting into metro ATL as a percentage of the total commuter base.

I don't think the Atlanta MSA will absorb any of those cities for the reason you mentioned above. Gainesville for example is very connected to Gwinnett (Metro Atlanta) and yet still is its own MSA. The reason being is that economic development inside of Hall County, although highly influenced by Atlanta, means that less people have to commute from Gainesville to Metro Atlanta for work and the county has not (yet) reached the threshold for being in the Atlanta MSA.

The other cities with large existing employment bases and being farther away are even less likely to be in the Atlanta MSA.

[Verge]

Originally Posted by newuserbuckhead

Re: Density

Looking solely at a city population or density of the central/core city certainly does a disservice when trying to compare places. The City of Atlanta ranks 37 in total city population while Jacksonville ranks 12 with nearly 80% more population. Source

However, no would in their right mind would ever put Jacksonville in the same category as Atlanta. Metro population is the best measurement. I don't agree on using CSA. There is an upper limit on the physical distance/expanse that one could consider a metro to be a single metro. Here's a fantastic youtube video discussing this.

Another way to compare cities, and I would argue this is one of the best metrics for comparing, is to look at the total amount of office space available. JLL has some fantastic figures on this that they update on a quarterly basis.

Based on this measure, Atlanta is the 8th largest city in the US, maybe 9th depending on how you calculate San Francisco vs San Jose. (I've lumped in New Jersey with New York, from a commercial leasing perspective they're separate, but for us they're the same market.)

If we take a closer look at Atlanta, we see that between Downtown, Midtown, and Buckhead, there's roughly 56M sqft of office space.

Compare that information with:
Dallas
Houston
Boston
Philadelphia

I wish the JLL reports had a geographic area size in their reports, but they don't. Costar has submarket maps for many major markets in the US. However, they don't list out the area.

I don't have time to do the calculations myself, but Atlanta's office space is considerably more spread-out than other comparable cities. Which plays into transit heavily. If we want to continue to densify, we need to focus the growth, somehow, on Downtown more than Midtown and Buckhead. But I don't see that happening anytime soon.

Thanks for the excellent discussion-- Good Stuff-- Metro areas are the best way to describe an American City-- I would still argue that CSAs are useful-- DC, SF and Boston are good examples of places that play a lot bigger than their official Metros--

[daharris80]

Originally Posted by scania

Based on what some of you have just stated and looking at the CSA list...they have separated Riverside/San Bernardino separate from LA metro, which is clearly not the case on any metric if you are to include Athens/Gainesville to the Atlanta CSA. That’s just one of the reasons I said the list was absurd. But that’s my opinion, in living in both metropolises.

That would be absurd. Except it’s not true. Riverside/San Bernardino are in the LA CSA. In fact LA has the largest CSA by area size in the country.

[themaguffin]

Thanks for the excellent discussion-- Good Stuff-- Metro areas are the best way to describe an American City-- I would still argue that CSAs are useful-- DC, SF and Boston are good examples of places that play a lot bigger than their official Metros--

I would say that the MSA is more accurate for most metros and CSA is more accurate for a few... it's unrealistic to separate the Bay area. At one time, Baltimore and Washington were considered together. I get that they are their own cities, but there is enough proximity and spillover to truly consider them separately, except for more specific topics more closely related to the core city.

[scania]

Originally Posted by daharris80

That would be absurd. Except it’s not true. Riverside/San Bernardino are in the LA CSA. In fact LA has the largest CSA by area size in the country.

No, according to that list... NYC is 3450 square miles, LA is 1736 sq mi and Riverside/San Bernardino isn't included with LA, with it being 545 sq mi... Atlanta is 2645 sq mi. So my point stands.

[L41A]

Originally Posted by daharris80

That would be absurd. Except it’s not true. Riverside/San Bernardino are in the LA CSA. In fact LA has the largest CSA by area size in the country.

Exactly! Riverside/San Bernardino is in LA CSA.

Riverside/San Bernardino is not in LA MSA. Much like Athens/Clarke, and Gainesville is not in Atlanta MSA.

Some folk need to know definitions of terms before speaking on them with very questionable comparisons.

[scania]

Originally Posted by L41A

Exactly! Riverside/San Bernardino is in LA CSA.

Riverside/San Bernardino is not in LA MSA. Much like Athens/Clarke, and Gainesville is not in Atlanta MSA.

Some folk need to know definitions of terms before speaking on them with very questionable comparisons.

I simply went on the list that was given. We were talking about where Atlanta ranked...in that lists, Gainesville is included in Atlanta, Riverside/San Bernardino is not included with LA. Just read the list. My statement is true and accurate based on the list with Atlanta being ranked #9...Riverside/San Bernardino was maybe 21 or 22. Heck...we all live here, but we can be true to things. Lol

[L41A]

Originally Posted by scania

I simply went on the list that was given. We were talking about where Atlanta ranked...in that lists, Gainesville is included in Atlanta, Riverside/San Bernardino is not included with LA. Just read the list. My statement is true and accurate based on the list with Atlanta being ranked #9...Riverside/San Bernardino was maybe 21 or 22. Heck...we all live here, but we can be true to things. Lol

Like I said know the terms' definitions and what you are looking at. In that Wikipedia list of Urban Areas, neither Gainesville nor Athens is included in Atlanta. The list that I see has Gainesville #245, Athens #249 so it is rightfully not included with Atlanta which is listed as #9.

Know the meaning of MSA, CSA, Urban areas and stop staying something is not in a CSA when it is. You continue to combine, mix the terms MSA CSA etc when doing your comparison thus befuddling the terms' definitions and the logic of your comparisons.

And disavow yourself of the notion that the Census, any notable list, or any/many people includes Athens in the Atlanta MSA to somehow boost its population.

In fact, of the major metros in the US, the places added to Atlanta CSA (Athens, Gainesville) boost its CSA population one of the least when compared to other CSAs.

[Tuckerman]

Agree with L41A
It is useful to keep these different definitions of urban areas in mind when comparing them. They are just classifications and like all classifications subject problems of interpretation when compared. For me the MSA is a slightly better and tighter classification than CSA, partly because it tends to be based on the central city. This is not always the case as in the Dallas-FW MSA (these cities spill together by are actually quite far apart. By the same rough distance standard Baltimore-Washington could be classified as an MSA, but it is classified as a CSA. When you go to international comparisons things get very muddled. For example the Tokyo area contains many quite large subsections that are quite distant from each other, but the build up is really continuous from central Tokyo. Another interesting example is the Ruhr-Gebiet in Germany which is a closely knit collection of many major cities (Cologne, Dusseldorf, Essen, Dortmund, Bochum, etc. There are small separations between these cities and they are seen as independent cities by Germans but could easily be considered as an MSA by the US Census classification. I think Atlanta MSA is somewhat unique in that it has a somewhat diffuse structure with one central city basically isolated from any other major city.

[Verge]

Originally Posted by Tuckerman

Agree with L41A
It is useful to keep these different definitions of urban areas in mind when comparing them. They are just classifications and like all classifications subject problems of interpretation when compared. For me the MSA is a slightly better and tighter classification than CSA, partly because it tends to be based on the central city. This is not always the case as in the Dallas-FW MSA (these cities spill together by are actually quite far apart. By the same rough distance standard Baltimore-Washington could be classified as an MSA, but it is classified as a CSA. When you go to international comparisons things get very muddled. For example the Tokyo area contains many quite large subsections that are quite distant from each other, but the build up is really continuous from central Tokyo. Another interesting example is the Ruhr-Gebiet in Germany which is a closely knit collection of many major cities (Cologne, Dusseldorf, Essen, Dortmund, Bochum, etc. There are small separations between these cities and they are seen as independent cities by Germans but could easily be considered as an MSA by the US Census classification. I think Atlanta MSA is somewhat unique in that it has a somewhat diffuse structure with one central city basically isolated from any other major city.

Atlanta did not have an CSA for a long time-- No close by population centers, lower density than many other places. The one we have now includes Gainesville, Rome and Athens-- which, at first, seemed like a bit of a stretch-- but for anyone who has made a trek to those places lately-- development is pretty continuous from the Atlanta suburbs to the heart of those areas-- So it may not be that far off. Certainly places like San Francisco- Oakland- San Jose deserve to be called a single place, at least for the sake of comparison--

[He's Back]

1020 Spring Street

[jayden]

I keep driving by Spring and 10th to see if they've broken ground on the residential tower yet. It has to be imminent, right?

[ATL_J]

It would be a shame if the office building accidently damaged the Hilton Garden Inn / Homewood Suites next door during construction, requiring a reconstruction of the façade.