Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin
I'm a bit surprised at how high the growth rates of some of those Latin American cities are. Birth rates & immigration are low, and their national populations are already mostly urbanized. Is internal migration from less-desirable cities driving the growth in places like Monterrey and Guadalajara?
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Specifically about Mexico, their TFR is way above Brazil and only now they're around 2.0 whereas that happened in Brazil 20 years ago.
Brazil had also a a more complete network of metropolitan areas, more similar to the US, while Mexico is only now reinforcing theirs. Monterrey and Guadalajara seemed to have a critical mass and became powerful magnets on their own. A smaller Mexican immigration to the US might have helped too.
About South America, Peru is still making its transition, while Colombia and Chile just did. I'll expect a healthy growth for them for while, specially for Lima that will probably overtake Rio de Janeiro by the mid-2030's or so.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford
Mexican urban growth has increased, after slowing down in past decades. I think a major factor is the deteriorating security situation in rural areas.
My in-laws moved from Mexico City to a rural town nearby, in part for "safety", 15 years ago. Now they're thinking of moving back, again in part for "safety". Unlike perceptions in the U.S., in Mexico the rural areas are now stereotyped as crime-ridden hellholes and the biggest cities are the safest.
I could see Bogota's population growing faster, given that Venezuela is emptying out, and Colombia is the biggest beneficiary.
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Colombia would profit more from the Venezuelan exodus, but their birth rates collapse fast, with the Census numbers coming way below the Estimates.