Winnipeg CMA in Five Years (2021)

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

When you state "low thousands" are you referring to Manitoba or Canada as a whole? As of March 3, Canada has already admitted 6,100 Ukrainian immigrants in just two months. It would not surprise me if we eventually accepted 250,000 Ukrainian immigrants within the next 24 months.

I can see at least 5% coming to Manitoba, or roughly 12,500.

We have to clarify terminology. Are you talking about ‘immigrants’ as in people who intend to stay permanently, or ‘refugees’ as people who are temporarily displaced, but did not intend to come to Canada permanently?

Even if we lump those categories together, that would be an unprecedented amount given that Canada is just ramping up to a goal of 400,000 immigrants per year now. It would represent more than 1/4 of our immigration quota.

I estimate a ballpark number of 50,000 over the next couple of years to Canada on the whole if the war concludes in a timely manner, say within a few months. The numbers can change if Russia decides to grind the war out.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

When Canada is going to take an “unlimited” amount of refugees while being the third largest population of Ukrainians it’s going to be a lot more then a couple thousand. This is a precedent that has never been set in the world stage for any crisis that has involved millions of people being displaced since WW2. I could easily see Manitoba getting 100k or more people never mind the rest of the country because there is no indication that Putin is going to back down and unfortunately an unfathomable amount of people will be displaced. That’s just reality.

Also do you truly believe those Western and Central European powers have the necessary infrastructure in place to take potentially 10 million or more Ukrainians? Romania is not even a developed country and Poland is on the outside looking in. They’re already struggling with current numbers.

I know a lot of Canadians like to downplay this but speaking from experience people moving from places like Ukraine to Canada receive a quality of life increase IMMEDIATELY. The Canadian dollar being relatively strong, children accessing superior education, socially very welcoming and accepting people, and access to food and clean water that we again take for granted. You think the LGBT+ community or visible minorities in Ukraine want to stay there anyway? And at the end of the day when/if they move back to a hopefully independent democracy this life experience will be crucial for a lot of the youth that will arrive here when they rebuild the nation.

However, if Putin is successful and a puppet government is installed would they even want to go back? We can’t guarantee the outcome of a successful resistance, so for a lot of Ukrainians when they hear their relatives are in Canada they can breath a much larger sigh of relief compared to if they were in Poland or anywhere in Europe really.

Finally, someone who gets it.

While I think 100,000 Ukrainians coming to Manitoba is definitely on the high end of the spectrum, there is no reason to believe the province would not admit 10,000+ Ukrainians (5,000+/year) in the next two years. For Canada, the figure I would estimate, would be 125,000+ each year , for at least the next two to three years (I estimate 400,000 total). DO we actually believe Poland, who currently has one million Ukrainians, has the infrastructure to house them long term?

We have to consider the fact that places like China and India accounted for 150,000 immigrants in 2019. Considering the fact that the Ukraine is a place that is more desirable to draw immigrants from, I can easily see them finishing #1 for the next 3 or more years in terms of immigrants.

Whether we like to admit it or not, Europeans are more likely to be accepted in Canadian society than Asians or Africans. This is probably due to systemic racism (Irish, Jews, Japanese, German and most recently, Muslim immigrants experienced this in the past 150 years here), but it is what it is. This could explain why the conflict is getting intense media coverage, while humanitarian crisis in Africa and Asia receive only the fraction of the attention. Even I remember how much coverage the Civil War in Yugoslavia received in the early 90s, when a genocide in Rwanda went virtually unnoticed by the World.

Having said that, the most optimistic thing that can happen in this war, is that it lasts another few weeks, the Ukrainians continue fierce resistance, and the Russian public turns on Putin, and there is a military coup, which finally ends the war, and forces the Russian military to deal with internal matters. Worst case scenario, which I do not even want to think of, is Putin doubles down (which he seems to be doing), continues to commit war crimes, NATO countries supply the Ukraine with fighter jets, anti-aircraft missles, and intelligence to counter the Russians. Putin considers this an act of war by NATO, then attacks the Baltic countries, starting WW3. Catastrophic events unfold, causing hundreds of thousands of Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, Estonians, and other groups to abandon their countries and seek refuge in Europe and North America.

However, I am going slightly off topic, but it's not inconceivable that this crisis could see Canada admitting well over 500,000 immigrants/year (with Manitoba taking in 20,000/year) for the next few years.

[thebasketballgeek]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Whether we like to admit it or not, Europeans are more likely to be accepted in Canadian society than Asians or Africans. This is probably due to systemic racism, but it is what it is. This could explain why the conflict is getting intense media coverage, while humanitarian crisis in Africa and Asia receive only the fraction of the attention. Even I remember how much coverage the Civil War in Yugoslavia received in the early 90s, when a genocide in Rwanda went virtually unnoticed by the World.

This is a key point. I am South Asian myself, and while I haven’t been affected by discriminatory practices in my daily life (at least that’s what I like to tell myself) I am Canadian first and foremost and want Canada to do what’s best for the country and for the country of Ukraine. Hopefully we can start providing similar sentiments to countries in the Middle East.

Economically we can only imagine what thousands of hard working Ukrainians can do for revitalization of areas that are dilapidated such as the North End, West End, and a large portion of downtown. Especially since the North End was the historical stopping point for a lot of Ukrainians who initially migrated here I’m sure they would love to set up shop and become skilled workers potentially giving them access to purchasing power they could have only dreamed of in Ukraine.

Politically I think Canada has hit an absolute home run when it comes to sanctions, humanitarian aid, and sending military equipment. I could only think of a handful of countries that are doing what Canada is doing for Ukraine right now. Hopefully when Zelenskyy takes control of the state once more he will see that and start working on new trade deals, transfer of students, and joint research within sectors such as agriculture for innovation. A future Ukraine that is democratic will have very friendly relations with Canada and that could be a crucial asset in the geopolitical aspect considering we share so many of the same exports and sectors. Also, no matter the outcome Russia will come out of this significantly weakened. Which means Ukraine could have indirectly played a pivotal role in Canada securing the Arctic in the future once climate change starts to make trade through the Northwest Passage feasible.

Anyways back to CMA, what are y’all’s next prediction for Winnipeg’s future population.

I’m gonna say 900k by 2026 and go out on a limb and say 1 mill by 2031 as NDP (when elected in 2023) will get us much higher population growth then the conservatives based on historical precedent.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by thebasketballgeek

This is a key point. I am South Asian myself, and while I haven’t been affected by discriminatory practices in my daily life (at least that’s what I like to tell myself) I am Canadian first and foremost and want Canada to do what’s best for the country and for the country of Ukraine. Hopefully we can start providing similar sentiments to countries in the Middle East.

Economically we can only imagine what thousands of hard working Ukrainians can do for revitalization of areas that are dilapidated such as the North End, West End, and a large portion of downtown. Especially since the North End was the historical stopping point for a lot of Ukrainians who initially migrated here I’m sure they would love to set up shop and become skilled workers potentially giving them access to purchasing power they could have only dreamed of in Ukraine.

Politically I think Canada has hit an absolute home run when it comes to sanctions, humanitarian aid, and sending military equipment. I could only think of a handful of countries that are doing what Canada is doing for Ukraine right now. Hopefully when Zelenskyy takes control of the state once more he will see that and start working on new trade deals, transfer of students, and joint research within sectors such as agriculture for innovation. A future Ukraine that is democratic will have very friendly relations with Canada and that could be a crucial asset in the geopolitical aspect considering we share so many of the same exports and sectors. Also, no matter the outcome Russia will come out of this significantly weakened. Which means Ukraine could have indirectly played a pivotal role in Canada securing the Arctic in the future once climate change starts to make trade through the Northwest Passage feasible.

Anyways back to CMA, what are y’all’s next prediction for Winnipeg’s future population.

I’m gonna say 900k by 2026 and go out on a limb and say 1 mill by 2031 as NDP (when elected in 2023) will get us much higher population growth then the conservatives based on historical precedent.

I think the way Canada handles the Ukraine crisis, and how many Ukrainians end up coming to Canada, will be a key factor in Winnipeg's population growth for the next decade. If it ends up as I predict it will, I say Winnipeg will hit 900,000 (including the undercount), and possibly 975,000 by 2031. If the NDP wins the next election, I can see the population increase accelerating.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

When you state "low thousands" are you referring to Manitoba or Canada as a whole? As of March 3, Canada has already admitted 6,100 Ukrainian immigrants in just two months, and those people were admitted before the invasion and mass exodus of Ukrainians began. It would not surprise me if we eventually accepted 250,000 Ukrainian immigrants within the next 24 months.

I can see at least 5% coming to Manitoba, or roughly 12,500.

I wrote this 2 weeks after the invasion. Not trying to tout my own horn, but I was pretty spot on. As of December 4:

128,121 Ukrainians have legally been accepted as refugees
451,258 Ukrainians have been approved to reside in Canada
724,494 Ukrainians have applied to live in Canada as refugees

I suspect we could end up accepting as many as 400,000 Ukrainians by the time this conflict ends. Unless something radical happens in Russia, I don't see this conflict ending anytime soon. It has the potential to drag on for years.

The last article I read on Ukrainian refugees that have arrived in Winnipeg, seems to suggest around 6,000 people. Does anyone know how many Ukrainian refugees are currently residing in the city?