Comparison of US States and Chinese Provinces, 2021

[Obadno]

GDP is stupid.

Spend 6 trillion on empty concrete highways = MASSIVE GDP INCREASE WOWOWOW!!!

Sure a lot of money has just dumped on contractors who did the building but how healthy of an economy would that be?

Objectively low GDP places could have very high standards of living and vice versa. Worshiping at the alter of GDP I dont think has done the world any favors.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Obadno

GDP is stupid.

Spend 6 trillion on empty concrete highways = MASSIVE GDP INCREASE WOWOWOW!!!

Sure a lot of money has just dumped on contractors who did the building but how healthy of an economy would that be?

Objectively low GDP places could have very high standards of living and vice versa. Worshiping at the alter of GDP I dont think has done the world any favors.

So, China is basically Arizona and Nevada. Their growth was the basis for much of their economic productivity and were in a world of hurt during the 2008 financial crisis. I'm just waiting for the other shoe to drop with China. It's coming.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Obadno

GDP is stupid.

Spend 6 trillion on empty concrete highways = MASSIVE GDP INCREASE WOWOWOW!!!

Sure a lot of money has just dumped on contractors who did the building but how healthy of an economy would that be?

Objectively low GDP places could have very high standards of living and vice versa. Worshiping at the alter of GDP I dont think has done the world any favors.

There are talks about GDP convenience but there is no replacement at sight.

Specifically about China, it's pretty obvious their living standards improving greatly since the 1980's. Their economic growth lift hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Moreover, even though they might have wasted lots of money on thoughtless construction, they will profit from their dozens of subway systems built from the scratch or having the entire country served by high speed railways.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Yuri

There are talks about GDP convenience but there is no replacement at sight.

Specifically about China, it's pretty obvious their living standards improving greatly since the 1980's. Their economic growth lift hundreds of millions out of poverty.

Moreover, even though they might have wasted lots of money on thoughtless construction, they will profit from their dozens of subway systems built from the scratch or having the entire country served by high speed railways.

China will collapse as it has done over and over.

China is built off of western companies using western money to build cheap goods made of western materials and middle eastern oil and then shipped back to North America and Europe.

China is completely dependent on the wider world for enough food and raw material to operate and then furthermore to sell products too.

That works great as long as the global economic system was plowing along but in case you've missed out on the last 2 years (and political backlash going back 5+) that system is coming to a sad and undignified end.

[jmecklenborg]

China's demographics are a ticking time bomb. It's possible that it will match the U.S. GDP around 2030 but it won't be able to significantly surpass it as more and more of its relatively small population of young adults are made to take care of its elderly.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Obadno

That works great as long as the global economic system was plowing along but in case you've missed out on the last 2 years (and political backlash going back 5+) that system is coming to a sad and undignified end.

Correct - and unfortunately too many Americans are too dumb to realize that China has the most to lose from the so-called "China Virus". That's why their government has taken severe measures to inhibit its spread.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Obadno

China will collapse as it has done over and over.

China is built off of western companies using western money to build cheap goods made of western materials and middle eastern oil and then shipped back to North America and Europe.

China is completely dependent on the wider world for enough food and raw material to operate and then furthermore to sell products too.

That works great as long as the global economic system was plowing along but in case you've missed out on the last 2 years (and political backlash going back 5+) that system is coming to a sad and undignified end.

Millenia old countries don't collapse because bubble bursts. The US quickly survived 2008, Argentina survives crisis after crisis and China had faced much much worse stuff than (Mao's great leap foward, for instance).

China is almost self-sufficient in food and they can import the rest. All countries are eager to export more. They also have massive foreign currency reserves that protect them from external shocks. Countries are resilient entities. They don't collapse over ordinary economic crisis. They keep going and usually recovery within two years or so.

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

China's demographics are a ticking time bomb. It's possible that it will match the U.S. GDP around 2030 but it won't be able to significantly surpass it as more and more of its relatively small population of young adults are made to take care of its elderly.

Bulgaria lost 30% of its population in the past 30 years. The worst predictions for China shows they'll lose it over 60 years in a period virtually every country in the world minus African ones will face similar problems. China will not be alone and societies will adapt to deal with this new scenario.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Millenia old countries don't collapse because bubble bursts. The US quickly survived 2008, Argentina survives crisis after crisis and China had faced much much worse stuff than (Mao's great leap foward, for instance).

China is almost self-sufficient in food and they can import the rest. All countries are eager to export more. They also have massive foreign currency reserves that protect them from external shocks. Countries are resilient entities. They don't collapse over ordinary economic crisis. They keep going and usually recovery within two years or so.

China is no more a unified country than Europe, its spent most of its 5000 years of history broken into warring factions its two longest unifications are the current one (1949-present) (excluding Taiwan and Hong kong) and the Yuan Dynasty which was a Sino-fied Mongol aristocracy ruling over a conquered China.

"China is almost self-sufficient in food and they can import the rest."- Only if its enemies in the First island Chain and the USA allow it too



Chian as we understand it is the result of the post WW2 USA defined world that the USA is letting fall apart.

China will suffer greatly from this return to history, so will Europe and Africa

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Obadno

China is no more a unified country than Europe, its spent most of its 5000 years of history broken into warring factions its two longest unifications are the current one (1949-present) (excluding Taiwan and Hong kong) and the Yuan Dynasty which was a Sino-fied Mongol aristocracy ruling over a conquered China.

"China is almost self-sufficient in food and they can import the rest."- Only if its enemies in the First island Chain and the USA allow it too

Chian as we understand it is the result of the post WW2 USA defined world that the USA is letting fall apart.

China will suffer greatly from this return to history, so will Europe and Africa

And why on earth the US would block ships bringing food to Chinese civilians? I mean, if we're talking about total war scenarios, the whole thing is irrelevant as the world would become nuclear wasteland in any case.

China is over 90% self-sufficient on foodstuff and their population is about to decline, making this is an even less pressing issue.

About regular economic downturns, every country in the world has example of it. Covid, being the most recent one. Countries hardly fall apart over it: it's a fact of life and the average person will go through four or five of them during their life.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Obadno

China is no more a unified country than Europe, its spent most of its 5000 years of history broken into warring factions its two longest unifications are the current one (1949-present) (excluding Taiwan and Hong kong) and the Yuan Dynasty which was a Sino-fied Mongol aristocracy ruling over a conquered China.

China is overwhelmingly Han (90+ %) with a common language (Mandarin and a lesser extent, Cantonese) where as Europe is indeed a patchwork ethically and linguistically...hence all the wars over their history. Europe is also not a country and even the induvial countries are far less homogenous (before recent immigration) than China as they are a result of various ethnic areas consolidated into one state; UK, Italy, Germany, Russia, etc.

[MAC123]

Originally Posted by Obadno

China is no more a unified country than Europe

China is a country, Europe is not.
Europe is largely ethnically diverse, China by a vast majority (over 90%) is Han Chinese.
China is mostly dominated by Mandarin and to a lesser extent Cantonese. (Though English has gained a foothold here). Europe is mostly dominated by English, but has dozens to hundreds of different languages across the continent.
Again China is a single country, with a single, unfied government with almost complete control. Europe is a continent with dozens of governments, each of which has several different waring party's.

Now China isn't this invincible beast that is completely unified in everything they do as the CCP would like you to believe, but they are vastly more unified than Europe or even the US.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by MAC123

China is a country, Europe is not.
Europe is largely ethnically diverse, China by a vast majority (over 90%) is Han Chinese.
China is mostly dominated by Mandarin and to a lesser extent Cantonese. (Though English has gained a foothold here). Europe is mostly dominated by English, but has dozens to hundreds of different languages across the continent.
Again China is a single country, with a single, unfied government with almost complete control. Europe is a continent with dozens of governments, each of which has several different waring party's.

Now China isn't this invincible beast that is completely unified in everything they do as the CCP would like you to believe, but they are vastly more unified than Europe or even the US.

good reply to a preposterous statement

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

good reply to a preposterous statement

History is preposterous?

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by MAC123

China is a country, Europe is not.
Europe is largely ethnically diverse, China by a vast majority (over 90%) is Han Chinese.
China is mostly dominated by Mandarin and to a lesser extent Cantonese. (Though English has gained a foothold here). Europe is mostly dominated by English, but has dozens to hundreds of different languages across the continent.
Again China is a single country, with a single, unfied government with almost complete control. Europe is a continent with dozens of governments, each of which has several different waring party's.

Now China isn't this invincible beast that is completely unified in everything they do as the CCP would like you to believe, but they are vastly more unified than Europe or even the US.

You clearly misunderstood my point.

China is only a country RIGHT NOW, it historically is not
Europe is Ethnically diverse, So is China, especially in the Sothern half, but yes the norther half is 100% Han (minus the Mongolians and Manchurians of course) China also has dozens of languages although the CCP has quashed everything but the Han ethnicity and Mandarin language for decades, and of course other Dynastys dominating from the north have as well.

Historically outside of a few unified periods China has been a collection of states not a single entity, Just as sometimes Europe has for short periods been ruled by continent spanning Empires.

Its fine you can pretend there has been some sort of consistent line of state coherence across Chinese history but tat simply isn't the reality. And likely the same pressures that prevent China from being unified in the past will happen again in the future.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Obadno

You clearly misunderstood my point.

China is only a country RIGHT NOW, it historically is not

No one was. The world was far more isolated and fragmented centuries ago. Europe was full of countless fiefdoms until empires and kings forced them under one government.

China as a civilization is far more cohesive that those in west which is still comparatively fragmented. China had rivaling empires, dynasties and subgroups some were invaded and conquered by Mongols and Manchus over the years but they were more alike than rivaling European powers. Even Taiwan is "Chinese" even if they evolved into their own national identity since 1949.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Bulgaria lost 30% of its population in the past 30 years. The worst predictions for China shows they'll lose it over 60 years in a period virtually every country in the world minus African ones will face similar problems. China will not be alone and societies will adapt to deal with this new scenario.

People leaving a poor country like Bulgaria or a relatively poor one (i.e. Mexicans who move to the United States) is a completely different matter as compared to the anemic birthrate and aging of a top industrialized economy (i.e. Japan). Also, the age at which women have the few kids they do have has a huge demographic effect - a child born to a 20 year-old versus 40 year-old mother is a completely different thing when it happens on a large scale.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by JManc

No one was. The world was far more isolated and fragmented centuries ago. Europe was full of countless fiefdoms until empires and kings forced them under one government.

China as a civilization is far more cohesive that those in west which is still comparatively fragmented. China had rivaling empires, dynasties and subgroups some were invaded and conquered by Mongols and Manchus over the years but they were more alike than rivaling European powers. Even Taiwan is "Chinese" even if they evolved into their own national identity since 1949.

I disagree I think that's a very Eurocentric view of Asia in general. Han China is essentially the northern China plain and historically it has a very high population where it oscillates into conquering its neighbors and then collapsing in on itself over and over.

But the area in which Modern China and Historical China covers is dozens of religions, languages, ethnicities. The Han out of their traditional home region just happen to have 10x the population of the others

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Obadno

I disagree I think that's a very Eurocentric view of Asia in general. Han China is essentially the northern China plain and historically it has a very high population where it oscillates into conquering its neighbors and then collapsing in on itself over and over.

But the area in which Modern China and Historical China covers is dozens of religions, languages, ethnicities. The Han out of their traditional home region just happen to have 10x the population of the others

I have done a fair amount of reading on Mao and the circumstances whereby he was able to take over the entire country (he stated back in the 1930s that he would have been happy with just some - any - chunk of the country) were completely unpredictable, even to him.

If Hitler had surrendered in 1944, the U.S. would have had plenty of time to move its troops to the Pacific in order to prevent the Soviets from aiding Mao.

The irony is that a China under Chang and pro-Western successors in the 1950s and 1960s would have surpassed the U.S. economy sometime in the 1970s, back when most Chinese were still riding bicycles on dirt roads.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I have done a fair amount of reading on Mao and the circumstances whereby he was able to take over the entire country (he stated back in the 1930s that he would have been happy with just some - any - chunk of the country) were completely unpredictable, even to him.

If Hitler had surrendered in 1944, the U.S. would have had plenty of time to move its troops to the Pacific in order to prevent the Soviets from aiding Mao.

The irony is that a China under Chang and pro-Western successors in the 1950s and 1960s would have surpassed the U.S. economy sometime in the 1970s, back when most Chinese were still riding bicycles on dirt roads.

Only because they would have been admitted into the USA's global trade organization in the 1940's instead of the 1970's. An order that the usa has been slowly and steadily abandoning for years.

Maybe China can use its newfound wealth to prevent backsliding but I doubt it as they are surrounded by powerful wealthy enemies.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

People leaving a poor country like Bulgaria or a relatively poor one (i.e. Mexicans who move to the United States) is a completely different matter as compared to the anemic birthrate and aging of a top industrialized economy (i.e. Japan). Also, the age at which women have the few kids they do have has a huge demographic effect - a child born to a 20 year-old versus 40 year-old mother is a completely different thing when it happens on a large scale.

Why is different? Bulgaria has also an ageing problem and on top of it, they have to deal with a massive emigration from people in the working/childbearing age.

Population will decline in the entire World sans Africa and all nations will have to learn to deal with it. China is not alone on it.