Hurricane Ian and its impact on Flordia's migration

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by lp198

Hi all,
Long time lurker, first time poster. Miami native dialing in from Chicago.


It's looking like Ian is poised to absolutely devastate SW Florida. I'm curious what its impact will be on the appeal of the region to would-be transplants.

Prayers to all in the path.

This reminds me of the posts back 2 years ago during covid where one, people seem to have bias in ways that make them say completely nonsensical things.

"Restaurants and bars are DEAD" "CITIES WILL NEVER RECOVER" "Population will decline!"

All of that was hyperbolic nonsense that stemmed from panic as 1. pandemics have always happened and yet humans always go back to bars and cities. 2. This pandemics death rate was tiny tiny tiny compared most throughout history.

Likewise is this hurricane going to stop Florida's growth. No, not even slightly. People knew of Hurricanes before, they know of them now, they will know of them in the future. It wont change a single thing.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I hear that too, but don't these people realize you can pay someone to clear your driveway? Or just move to a condo or other development where the community perform such services?

I'm reminded of a quote from my cousin (who moved to Tampa years ago) upon returning to Chicago for Xmas one year.

"I don't know how you guys still put up with this shit every year, even just looking at all this snow brings back the nightmares of living here for me"

It really is an almost pathological thing for some people.

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, with global warming, how often does someone really need to shovel/snowblow in a typical winter in say Cleveland or Detroit? Maybe 3-4 times?

I'm the designated snow-shoveler for our 3-flat here in Chicago. There is obviously a fairly wide variance of snow events big enough to shovel from year to year, but I'd say anywhere from 6 - 12/year is "normal".

And there's usually at least one larger snowfall (sometimes more) spread out over many, many hours that requires multiple passes.

And Chicago is one of the least snowy great lakes cities.


It's not a deal breaker for me because I love the cold and snow, but a lot of people do not feel the same way.

At all.

[BigDipper 80]

And to be fair, it's not just about the snow shoveling, either. Old people are more sensitive to cold, and you're not going to escape having to go outside at least a little bit here and there. Not to mention that slipping on ice is more often than not fatal when you pass a certain age.

That said, there are a lot of places I'd pick to move before Florida.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

And never shoveling snow again, so from their perspective, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!!

being located 200 miles south, perhaps the Cincy area doesn't breed nearly as much outright snow hatred as the great lakes region does?

Cincinnati doesn't get nearly the same amount of snow as further north but the ice and hills make for a fun combination. Plus, not really seeing the sun much between November and April (and I like gloom, fwiw). My parents live amongst the snowbirds in East Mesa who collectively rejoice in not having to shovel snow in the winter months. There's also way too many Bears, Hawkeyes, Badgers, Huskers, and Vikings fans for my liking that time of year...

Everyone has their thing. I live in Arizona and hate humidity, so Florida confounds me, but a good chunk of my extended family knew their way around Florida's Gulf Coast better than they did Cincinnati.

[twister244]

If I had enough FU money, and didn't care if my condo was wiped out in a real estate crash (due to climate change awakening in S. FL), I would totally just buy a condo in Miami to live in *part* of the year. I love going down there in Jan/Feb/Mar after the holidays when it's Hoth here in Chicago. During the Summer though, I want to be in Chicago. Obviously a much better place than Miami.

But.... I would also prefer to shovel out a bit of travel money and just work remotely from exotic tropical places abroad to get a more unique experience and travel the world.

That's another thing I think about.... As our world becomes further globalized, what stops someone from buying cheap property somewhere outside the US? If you don't want to risk sea level rise or hurricanes, there are a TON of places cheaper abroad where you can get the same winter tropical experience at a cheaper rate without the climate risk.

I'm obviously speaking from a remote work privilege POV, but as Crawford noted, Florida isn't particularly beautiful aside from some of it's beaches, etc. I just keep looking at the development in Cape Coral and wonder..... How? How many of these people are going to rebuild there? We now know that Ft Myers beach has basically been completely destroyed. The storm surge and winds probably completely destroyed everything. The causeway has chunks of it missing, and there was major inundation in Ft. Myers. This surely means Cape Coral, and adjacent areas experienced severe inundation.

Given the complacency to the risk, I wonder how many folks don't have the proper insurance to cover damage from storm surge. Remember, most homeowners policies don't cover damage from flood...... It will be interesting to see how this impacts the RE market down there. Again, one single storm doesn't cause the state to collapse, but this one certainly reflects a trend that may cause more people to question if FL really is where they want to have a warm location to live in.......

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

And never shoveling snow again, so from their perspective, MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!!!

These same people must feel a surge of "victory" every time sand finds its way between their toes. I once took a short business trip to Tampa and these people in the group demanded that we take a cab just to walk on Clearwater Beach. We get over there and this lady in the group pulls out her phone to call a series of people letting them know she was "on the beach". This was before smartphones and Instagram. We walked on this beach for maybe 30 minutes. Wow. What a thrill.

being located 200 miles south, perhaps the Cincy area doesn't breed nearly as much outright snow hatred as the great lakes region does?

I remember when there were still a lot of rear-wheel drive manual transmission cars on the road and there was no such thing as ABS or the sophisticated AWD systems that are now commonplace. Cars ran off the road all of the time.

The old boots and winter clothes absolutely sucked compared to what exists now. I remember shivering pretty much every morning while waiting for the school bus - I never shiver anymore. I remember sweating a lot inside those winter clothes but then the sweat would freeze if you stopped moving. Modern fabrics are amazing.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Also, with global warming, how often does someone really need to shovel/snowblow in a typical winter in say Cleveland or Detroit? Maybe 3-4 times?

3-4 snowfalls a winter in Cleveland?! No way. That's maybe a fair estimate for Cincinnati, but Cleveland gets way more snow than that. My sister lived in Cleveland for a few years and she said it was like a completely different winter experience than Cincinnati. She lived in a high rise, so no shoveling required, but she hated having to drive through the snow/ice, and it was a very common issue she had to deal with there. I know Detroit is on the other side of the lake and doesn't get the same lake effect snow, but the winter is still pretty gnarly I have to imagine.

I personally don't mind winter that much. I find myself missing it at times in Southern California, actually. But I've always said I'd not want to live in a place with worse or longer winters than what I grew up with in Cincy. If Cincinnati got a bit more sun during the winter, it'd be almost ideal. Couple months of cold, couple snow events each year, but otherwise manageable. It has significantly longer fall and spring seasons compared to Cleveland and Chicago.

[Altoic]

Tampa hasn't had a direct hit from a hurricane since 1921. I really thought Ian was going to hit Tampa, many people felt too hence the mandatory and voluntary evacuations all throughout the bay. But, unfortunately for Fort Myers and the Cape Coral surrounding area, it followed a very similar track to Charley and hit them as a Cat 4, 2 mph away from a Cat 5. This left the Tampa Bay area relatively untouched in regards to storm surge and extreme flooding, but begged the question of 'when' not 'if' Tampa will get a direct hit. It's a shame it took the people of Fort Myers and the surrounding area by surprise, there was little time between evacuation and the track change. I just hope a speedy recovery for the surrounding areas and for the people's safety.

[Buckeye Native 001]

Originally Posted by edale

Couple months of cold, couple snow events each year, but otherwise manageable.

That's Flagstaff. We'll get two feet of snow one day, 45F and sunny the next.

Then again, Flagstaff has its own environmental issues, especially water and forest fires.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I hear that too, but don't these people realize you can pay someone to clear your driveway? Or just move to a condo or other development where the community perform such services?

It's weird. It's like moving from Florida to Minnesota to greatly shorten the grass-cutting season.

Also, with global warming, how often does someone really need to shovel/snowblow in a typical winter in say Cleveland or Detroit? Maybe 3-4 times?

It's incredibly odd to me you can't understand what people mean, it isn't the literal shoveling of snow, it's having to deal with snow. Many people hate the cold and snow (i'm one of them, but live in Minneapolis for my family), some people if given the opportunity will leave the cold. As soon as my 2 year old daughter graduates HS, i'm out, going to Florida. I have friends with small kids who just sold their house in Rye and are moving to the 30A area of Florida near Rosemary Beach / Alys Beach, it's a great area, especially for young families....you'll be shocked to hear this, but they are sick of the NY winter, and want something warmer.

In Minneapolis, I have a retainer for my plow company of 4 plows per month from December through March, we easily go through that many in a season. In Chicago, I'd say 6-10 plowable events per season, though usually starts in January or very late December.

[eschaton]

The issue of what this will do the property insurance market is a big open question which will probably cause the biggest impact on migration. As it is large swathes of the state were getting close to uninsurable due to the hurricane risk, and this will not improve matters at all.

[jmecklenborg]

Yeah the winter at the Chicago>Detroit>Cleveland latitude reliably sees lakes and ponds freeze over for a sustained number of weeks whereas the Indianapolis>Columbus latitude and points south usually only has one sustained week of cold weather (highs in the teens), with ponds only briefly freezing over if at all.

One of my best friends lives near Green Bay, WI and it's next-level up there, since the county plans on establishing ice roads each winter across Lake Winnebago and they have their Christmas Parade before Thanksgiving.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by BigDipper 80

And to be fair, it's not just about the snow shoveling, either. Old people are more sensitive to cold, and you're not going to escape having to go outside at least a little bit here and there. Not to mention that slipping on ice is more often than not fatal when you pass a certain age.

True stuff.

Which is why I'm very pleased that my own parents (mid-70s) downsized to a condo in a lakefront highrise here in Chicago several years ago that has a lot of amenities within their building (health club, indoor pool, market, cafe/deli, dry cleaners, community spaces) that they can access without ever having to navigate a single set of stairs or setting a foot outside.

If we get a nasty polar vortex cold snap and/or blizzard for several days, they are more than good to hunker down inside and ride it out, without feeling "trapped" in their unit.

And the best part, they're just two miles away from me! I don't have to go all the fucking way to Florida just to see my mom and dad.

[chris08876]

Apparently Ian is not done doing what it does.

CAT 1 hit on South Carolina projected. Hopefully it doesn't stay out in the water for long as to not strengthen.







Credit: Accuweather

[iheartthed]

Actually, I hate shoveling too, but I didn't need to move to Florida to avoid it. I solved that problem by living in an apartment building.

[JManc]

Hurricanes typically don't phase all that much; been through so many but this one was pretty nasty. We were just in Tampa/ St. Pete in the spring and I can only imagine what the places like St. Pete Beach are like right now. Have a cousin in Largo, came through this fine.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by edale

3-4 snowfalls a winter in Cleveland?! No way. That's maybe a fair estimate for Cincinnati, but Cleveland gets way more snow than that.

No, I meant how many shoveling events. Most snowfalls are minor. In most places, you can get away without shoveling. You don't have to shovel unless you're talking at least 3-4 inches, and of course no subsequent melting.

I grew up in suburban Detroit and remembered shoveling during high school, and don't remember doing it more than 3-4 times a year. My dad has a service, and I think he only uses it a few times a year.

And I get it was worse in the past, but nowadays, cars are good in the snow, it's easy to stay warm in the snow, and America is so sprawly and indoors-oriented, you barely have to go outside. People go from their attached garage to some mall or office with an attached garage, and barely feel the weather. In sprawl America, the weather is almost irrelevant.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

It's incredibly odd to me you can't understand what people mean, it isn't the literal shoveling of snow, it's having to deal with snow. Many people hate the cold and snow (i'm one of them, but live in Minneapolis for my family), some people if given the opportunity will leave the cold. As soon as my 2 year old daughter graduates HS, i'm out, going to Florida. I have friends with small kids who just sold their house in Rye and are moving to the 30A area of Florida near Rosemary Beach / Alys Beach, it's a great area, especially for young families....you'll be shocked to hear this, but they are sick of the NY winter, and want something warmer.

In Minneapolis, I have a retainer for my plow company of 4 plows per month from December through March, we easily go through that many in a season. In Chicago, I'd say 6-10 plowable events per season, though usually starts in January or very late December.

Wimps.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

It's incredibly odd to me you can't understand what people mean, it isn't the literal shoveling of snow, it's having to deal with snow.

I get that this is the complaint, but I don't understand what they're "dealing with". I'm in Metro Detroit at least once every winter, and there's nothing to "deal with". All cars are fine in the snow nowadays. Sprawl neighborhoods are all attached garages, so no reason to even go out in the cold. No one walks anyways; it's all car-oriented, and every store, restaurant or service does curbside. Winters in the north can suck bc of the hermetic existence, but not really the snow/cold. Completely avoidable for most.

Originally Posted by Investing In Chicago

As soon as my 2 year old daughter graduates HS, i'm out, going to Florida. I have friends with small kids who just sold their house in Rye and are moving to the 30A area of Florida near Rosemary Beach / Alys Beach, it's a great area, especially for young families....you'll be shocked to hear this, but they are sick of the NY winter, and want something warmer.

I get there are people like this, I just don't understand the why.

What is good for young families in a place with generally poor schools, minimal services and high crime? Rye is basically a dream locale for parents. Public schools are Ivy League factories, libraries and cultural centers and youth activities are ridiculously good. You can live on the beach, walk to an amusement park, and 30 minutes by train to the center of the world. The only negative is it's all very expensive.

And isn't the point of preferring warmth predicated on being outside? People in FL are generally inside, in AC. There's less streetlife in FL than almost anywhere in the U.S. Minneapolis (which, yeah, gets unusually cold) has more streetlife than anywhere in FL excepting a few blocks of South Beach. FL doesn't have a Coastal CA type climate, where you can eat dinner outdoors practically all year. There's buggy/rainy season half the year. It's almost always humid and windy. You can't even walk barefoot due to the fire ants and scorpions.

When I'm visiting boomer types in FL, the only outside time is at restaurants. That's basically it. There are almost no pedestrians.

[PhillyRising]

I have had friends who moved to Florida who insist that snow storms are worse than Hurricanes.

Seriously.