Hurricane Ian and its impact on Flordia's migration

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Basically the polar opposite of neighboring Ft. Myers beach which was just awful. Sanibel was more "Old Florida". Not a single chain hotel on the island and I think just 1 single chain restaurant on the island. Basically 100% mom and pop motels, bnb's and restaurants. More of an old hippy vibe vs the chain/drunken ex-fratboy orgy/Senor Frogs vide of the rest of the SW coast. Basically everyone bikes to get around. No high rise condos or giant hotels.

I guess?

I always thought of Sanibel and Captiva as wealthy enclaves of modern Florida. The majority of it didn’t exist until the 1960s.

“Old Florida” had more the vibe of Everglades City and Chokoloskee.

Lots of modest fishing and tourist towns that also don’t have chains.

Pre-Causeway Sanibel and Captiva








http://www.captivaislandhistoricalso..._by_direction=

Everglades City and Chokoloskee

[mrnyc]

^ lots of i got mine suburban hens and their families love that area. or tell themselves they do. just sayin. there is a florida for everyone!

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

^ lots of i got mine suburban hens and their families love that area. or tell themselves they do. just sayin. there is a florida for everyone!

Not making a judgment here :wink:

Just that Florida is a very old state, and places called “Old Florida” should probably predate the portable air conditioning unit.

Speaking of Old Florida, the Thomas Edison-Henry Ford Estates came out unscathed.
https://www.news-press.com/story/wea...an/8154150001/

[llamaorama]

Fortunately or unfortunately, Cape Coral doesn't look like it was hit that bad:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...mages-florida/

Sanibel looks trashed though. What's interesting the amount of beach erosion around some of the larger multistory buildings. I wonder if any of them were structurally compromised?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

But to be honest, modern Sanibel is over.

It’s now an island of population ~6000 with no housing, no utilities, no businesses, no services, emergency or otherwise, and no road to the mainland.

Most residents won’t even be allowed to visit the island again until 2023. Then another half year for demolition and debris removal. And after that a years-long construction and repair backlog, if it’s even possible because that causeway will be a low priority. Most sane people (especially the wealthy sorts who would live on Sanibel) would move on long before that point.

Do you think it's actually game over for Sanibel as a thing?

My in-laws have a month-long timeshare on Sanibel that they snowbird down to from Milwaukee every February.

They said that the property probably won't be ready for this winter but the email they got from the management company made it sound like 2024 was still on the table.


We'll see what happens, I guess....

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by llamaorama

Fortunately or unfortunately, Cape Coral doesn't look like it was hit that bad:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weath...mages-florida/

Sanibel looks trashed though. What's interesting the amount of beach erosion around some of the larger multistory buildings. I wonder if any of them were structurally compromised?

I think it's pretty shitty to imply it is unfortunate Cape Coral wasn't destroyed, where hundreds (if not thousands) of people lost their homes.

[Investing In Chicago]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Do you think it's actually game over for Sanibel as a thing?

My in-laws have a month-long timeshare on Sanibel that they snowbird down to from Milwaukee every February.

They said that the property probably won't be ready for this winter but the email they got from the management company made it sound like 2024 was still on the table.


We'll see what happens, I guess....

I predict the opposite will happen - Sanibel will rebuild and there will be more demand to live there than ever. Quite a bit of Sanibel is built in the 70's and 80's, and earlier, those buildings will all be replaced with new construction. As long as there is sunshine and beaches, an area like Sanibel will continue to be in demand.

[bnk]

Sanibel, captiva and pine island will be just fine, give them a year

too much midwest old retirement and their benis are already invested down there

Its not going away even though it is an island a key really


the beachfront property is simply too valuable

[Centropolis]

Sanibel/Captiva is/was great but maybe let it go. Have some shack bars and I’ll camp there in winter.

[Kngkyle]

From what I've seen it looks like the overwhelming majority of structures on Sanibel are in fine shape. Anything built in the last ~30 years (since Andrew) was built to withstand hurricanes like this. Structurally they are fine. Lower floors will need to be gutted due to water intrusion but that is far from a complete write off. There is a 0% chance that Sanibel ceases to exist as a habitable barrier island and vacation hotspot.

My only beef is with federal tax dollars/subsidies going towards such developments. If you want to live on a barrier island and enjoy that lifestyle then you should have to pay for the true costs that come with it.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

From what I've seen it looks like the overwhelming majority of structures on Sanibel are in fine shape. Anything built in the last ~30 years (since Andrew) was built to withstand hurricanes like this. Structurally they are fine. Lower floors will need to be gutted due to water intrusion but that is far from a complete write off.

That's kinda the gist of the email my in-laws received from the management of their complex on Sanibel. It's a beachfront property with a grouping of about a dozen or so 4 story reinforced concrete condo blocks arranged kinda v-shaped around a central pool/lawn area.

The whole property was obviously flooded, so first floors, landscaping, and the pool are all lost, but the preliminary inspection of the buildings says that they should be ok structurally.

The beach itself saw substantial erosion, but natural currents and waves may rebuild much of the beach over time anyway.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Nobody cares that much about the wind in Florida anymore.

It’s storm surge that has always been the big killer in historic hurricanes.

And, no, Florida has not handled a major storm surge in an actual metropolitan area before. Certainly nothing like this has happened in modern times in Florida.

When Michael hit the panhandle, Mexico Beach was a very small town in a super isolated part of Florida.

I think your impression of Hurricane Michael is misguided. Review the following Wikipedia link, and scroll down to the "Impact" section.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Michael

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

My only beef is with federal tax dollars/subsidies going towards such developments. If you want to live on a barrier island and enjoy that lifestyle then you should have to pay for the true costs that come with it.

The instant a bridge is built, low-quality auto-oriented development goes berserk. I don't know that any developers are pursuing new bridges to undeveloped barrier islands right now, but I'm not aware of any of these being developed around walking/bicycling. Sorry, those bike paths on Hilton Head, SC don't count - that place has no center, and it's absolutely overrun with traffic much of the time.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Double L

Houston didn’t see a slowdown in growth after Hurricane Harvey and I haven’t heard of any cities in Florida expecting a slowdown in growth. The only city that I can think of that never recovered from a natural disaster was Galveston, TX, after a 1901 hurricane. New Orleans even had neighborhoods gentrifying after Katrina. I think the standard is very high for an area to never recover from a natural disaster. People moving to Florida have always known that hurricanes were a threat. This could become an issue in the future if climate change is never resolved however, which is becoming more and more likely to be a reality, IMO.

Although Galveston didn't ever return to its former status after the 1900 storm, it kept rebuilding to its newer baselines after subsequent hurricanes. After Ike in 2008, I thought it would never rebuild. The destruction due to wind and storm surge were severe, including a large number of beach homes that were completely destroyed. But you'd never know anything happened now. I don't know why people built all those new beach houses in the same place where the previous ones were destroyed. It seems nuts, but it just continues to happen.

[bobdreamz]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Nobody cares that much about the wind in Florida anymore.

It’s storm surge that has always been the big killer in historic hurricanes.

And, no, Florida has not handled a major storm surge in an actual metropolitan area before. Certainly nothing like this has happened in modern times in Florida.

When Michael hit the panhandle, Mexico Beach was a very small town in a super isolated part of Florida.

You must have forgotten Hurricane Andrew in 1992 in Miami which I went through.
The Storm surge was so high that the Burger King Headquarters in Cutler Bay where my Credit Union was had fish on it's second floor.



^^^ Downtown Miami on the left & Miami Beach on the upper right.
Burger King just abandoned the complex and moved inland after this.
Most of southern Miami Dade County was flooded for a few days but Miami has a decent Canal system to drain floodwaters and empty it into Biscayne Bay & the Atlantic Ocean.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by bobdreamz

You must have forgotten Hurricane Andrew in 1992 in Miami which I went through.
The Storm surge was so high that the Burger King Headquarters in Cutler Bay where my Credit Union was had fish on it's second floor.



^^^ Downtown Miami on the left & Miami Beach on the upper right.
Burger King just abandoned the complex and moved inland after this.
Most of southern Miami Dade County was flooded for a few days but Miami has a decent Canal system to drain floodwaters and empty it into Biscayne Bay & the Atlantic Ocean.

No, I did not forget. The storm surge for Hurricane Andrew was an extremely localized event. Strong winds for sure, but the worst of the storm surge was well out of range of most residential areas.

Hurricane Andrew was a small-sized, fast-moving storm with not much rain (more similar to Hurricane Charley), which reduces the wider area storm surge risks.

Hurricane Ian was 5 times the size of Andrew with hurricane force winds of a diameter of 240 miles vs Andrew’s 50 miles.

And Miami Beach and Miami were well out of range of even a larger storm. 20-30 miles from the eye is the difference between Fort Myers Beach devastation and North Naples moderate coastal damage.

[bigstick]

Atlanta has turned in to Florida North, it was bad before Ian, now about 3 in 5 tags I see are from Florida.

[bobdreamz]

Fair enough but why are you dismissing the impact on Miami-Dade county when ANDREW hit it's population was over 2 Million.
The political and economic ramifications of that storm went beyond where the Storm surge occurred.
Isn't what this thread is about?

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

I don't know why people built all those new beach houses in the same place where the previous ones were destroyed. It seems nuts, but it just continues to happen.

The Army Corps of Engineers tore down tens of thousands of homes along the Mississippi, Ohio, and their tributaries generations ago. You can't build anything there, under any circumstances. Yet...we're blinded by the light? Property damage doesn't "count" when it's in a sunny tourist area?

And it's not just the homes, it's all of the destroyed furniture, all of the dead pets, all of the destroyed cars. At most recent count, 4,000 people who didn't heed evacuation warnings had to be rescued from Hurricane Ian. We just let them off the hook? They don't have to pay for their rescue or maybe spend 90 days in jail?

Like, if the police tell me to do something, I expect consequences if I don't do it. I'm getting fined, I'm getting yelled at, I'm getting roughed up, I'm going to jail. But hurricane evacuations are special...those rules don't apply.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

That's kinda the gist of the email my in-laws received from the management of their complex on Sanibel. It's a beachfront property with a grouping of about a dozen or so 4 story reinforced concrete condo blocks arranged kinda v-shaped around a central pool/lawn area.

The whole property was obviously flooded, so first floors, landscaping, and the pool are all lost, but the preliminary inspection of the buildings says that they should be ok structurally.

The beach itself saw substantial erosion, but natural currents and waves may rebuild much of the beach over time anyway.

I'm curious - Who pays to repair that water damage? I was under the impression most homeowners insurance doesn't cover damage due to flooding, or is storm surge different?