How Austin Became One of the Least Affordable Cities in America

[llamaorama]

Of course the places with stagnant prices are the most expensive. I worry that in the future pretty much all the decent economically vibrant metros in the US will converge at East/West Coast real estate prices. The only opportunity for homeownership will be to move to some dying town in Kansas or something.

Of course if the US eventually peaks demographically and the rapid growth of cities tapers off maybe that will end. Of course if we massively expand immigration we'll just wind up in a Canadian situation so perhaps there's no escape.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

The reason why Austin often gets pegged as a liberal outpost in a sea of red is because it's the only major Texas MSA that is overwhelmingly blue. The other three are all radiantly purple.


Biden margin in 2020 by MSA:

Austin: +27.3
San Antonio: +3.4
Dallas: +1.2
Houston: +1.1

Source: https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...&postcount=432


If the Dallas, Houston, and SA metros we're as deeply blue as Austin's, Texas would immediately become one of the safest blue states in the nation. They're not conservative overall, but relative to other big league metros in their respective weight classes, they do lean much more red than most others. and it's not just a "oh, but this is the south" thing, as Atlanta was a +15.6!

If the Dallas and Houston MSAs had went +16 for Biden like Atlanta did, the election would've been a full-blown blow out.

I wasn't talking about the MSAs. I was talking about the cities themselves. But the MSA data is instructive, I would agree.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Wigs

I'm a big fan of Austin. I was there in 2011 when the high-rise boom was getting underway. A lot of cool restaurants and bars, and friendly people!

It's great to see the city increasing density in the downtown core with all the new condo towers and mixed-use, all the influx of new residents, new jobs.
The only downside is now the cost of a house pushing up to the $600k mark. But that's to be expected when it's become such a desirable city in the South/SW

In the city itself, it's not that easy to find a home for $600K that looks like it should cost that much. I'm five miles from downtown, and even some tear-downs are selling for more than that in my area of north central. In my neighborhood, my little 1400 ft2, almost 60 year old home will now sell for $750K, according to my realtor. And it hasn't been renovated other than tile throughout. It's also close to some homeless camps, and we've had trouble with a few abandoned homes. It's just that a lot of people want to live close in, including newcomers. I've been meeting them, and they have been coming from the west and east coasts, other areas of the south, and midwest, as well as other areas in Texas. It's mostly young couples, some with kids, who have very high paying jobs, mostly in tech. It's mind blowing to meet kids in their 20s who can afford these prices, but they can.

In the suburbs, $600K can still buy an exceptionally nice, large home in some areas. If work from home is going to be a long lasting thing, then it's not a bad deal to buy into a large, new home at a much better price. I guess it depends on one's circumstances.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

I wasn't talking about the MSAs. I was talking about the cities themselves. But the MSA data is instructive, I would agree.

I introduced the MSA data because it makes comparisons between places infinitely more apples to apples, given the wildly varied and arbitrary nature of the municipal limits of city propers.

Austin is an extremely blue place, especially so for texas. In fact, as I mentioned in another thread recently, it was the second bluest non-coastal major metro area in the nation in 2020, behind only Chicago!

Whereas Dallas and Houston were the 2nd and 3rd least blue 3M+ metros in the nation in 2020, behind only phoenix. They are unusually purple given their great sizes.

[AviationGuy]

One thing about median prices when they're cited, is that homes priced below median are sometimes undesirable. There are exceptions, I know, and some buyers get lucky if they can spend a lot of time looking. But median, as well as average, prices include slum housing in dangerous areas as well as ultra upper end housing. That would, of course, be true of prices anywhere. It's just something buyers need to think about when they're looking. I'm sure that a lot of buyers will read about a median price in a city or MSA, and think, "wow we're going to find a great home in a great neighborhood for that price." Maybe, but maybe not.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by DCReid

TX is attractive to many (not me) because of its perceived newness and open space. When you look at new homes from developers in TX, they show these 3000 sf McMansions on at least 1/2 acre or more. The fact that they are far from the urban core does not bother many people. In Ohio, I saw similar development in the Columbus exurbs like Marysville. To me Columbus reminded me of a southern city - mostly car dependent, relatively weak downtown core with some gentrification near the downtown and some old nice downtown areas, some decaying inner ring suburbs, and new affluent suburbs spreading out everywhere and miles from the center. I don't know what other Ohio cities have but get the idea that the suburbs have old houses and there is not as much new suburban areas.

Columbus's downtown is not great but its 1800s and prewar neighborhoods are fantastic. German Village, Victorian Village, and Italian Village blow away anything in Texas. Cincinnati almost certainly has more and better 1800s and prewar neighborhoods than the entire state of Texas combined.

A friend of mine moved to Austin about 7 years ago to work at Whole Foods' HQ. His house has now appreciated so much that he has considered leaving that company in order to move back to Ohio with enough money to buy a nice house plus a rental in cash.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I introduced the MSA data because it makes comparisons between places infinitely more apples to apples, given the wildly varied and arbitrary nature of the municipal limits of city propers.

Austin is an extremely blue place, especially so for texas. In fact, as I mentioned in another thread recently, it was the second bluest non-coastal major metro area in the nation in 2020, behind only Chicago!

Whereas Dallas and Houston were the 2nd and 3rd least blue 3M+ metros in the nation in 2020, behind only phoenix. They are unusually purple given their great sizes.

There's a huge disconnect between Houston proper and many of its suburbs. You really don't see that stark of a contrast most places elsewhere. The city is usually the furthest left leaning but suburbs are moderate. Not here...

Contrast to where I have a place Fremont which is about 35 miles from San Francisco but still heavily Democratic.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

There's a huge disconnect between Houston proper and many of its suburbs. You really don't see that stark of a contrast most places elsewhere. The city is usually the furthest left leaning but suburbs are moderate. Not here...

Yeah, the stubborn redness of Dallas and Houston suburbia is pretty outlier-ish these days. In most of the nation's very biggest metro areas, the burbs took a pretty hard blue turn in the age of trump.

Not so much in Texas. Or rather, they started out so damn ruby red to begin with that even with a rising blue tide in the burbs, the two big Texas metros were still basically purple overall, because there ain't no redder suburbia than Texas suburbia.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

a
but how are these parking lots still in existence north of 6th? Noticed this ten years ago., and this is basically the only park of DT that hadn't changed.

https://www.google.com/maps/place/St...!4d-97.7362583

https://www.google.com/maps/@30.2686...7i16384!8i8192

Those blocks are within walking distance of the walking dead. The downtown homeless shelter is in that area. You can see it in the 2nd link - grey low rise behind the black car. It's where all the bad things happen in downtown. There was a shooting there about a month ago. Also, if you pan to the left in that link, there's a vacant block up the hill that is owned by the adjacent church. This part of downtown hasn't seen much development pretty much because of that. At the moment, 5th Street and 11th Street are the boundaries where we're seeing new development on the east side of downtown. Everything inside of there is a deadzone for new development.

Originally Posted by DCReid

I just read an article that even San Antonio prices are zooming. They are now higher than Houston's. Is it possibly spillover from Austin?

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/...Pos=3#cxrecs_s

Maybe? I got a haircut from a woman last week who commutes to Austin from San Antonio to cut hair.

[dc_denizen]

I get it but take a look at dc , since 2007 the entire eastern end of downtown used to be like that , church parking lots next to homeless shelters … now there are maybe 2 lots left, filled in the apartments and office

I wonder if proximity to 6th street and the noise from concerts / clubs is part of the issue . Plus the need for some parking for out of town attendees

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Yeah, the stubborn redness of Dallas and Houston suburbia is pretty outlier-ish these days. In most of the nation's very biggest metro areas, the burbs took a pretty hard blue turn in the age of trump.

Not so much in Texas. Or rather, they started out so damn ruby red to begin with that even with a rising blue tide in the burbs, the two big Texas metros were still basically purple overall, because there ain't no redder suburbia than Texas suburbia.

Also 2020 was a step back for many Texas suburbs compared to the gains in 2016 and 2018. We didn't have any of the riots/looting but that nevertheless played well for the GOP.

[Steely Dan]

^ i don't know how the data breaks down city vs. burbs, but both the dallas and houston MSAs were bluer in 2020 than they were in 2016.

in fact, the Dallas MSA saw one of the bigger blue shifts in the nation among large metros (though still very purple overall because of its much redder starting point).



blue margin by election year:

metro area: --- 2016 -- 2020 -- change

Dallas MSA: ---- -6.68 -- +1.16 -- +7.84

Houston MSA: -- -1.06 -- +1.06 -- +2.12

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by dc_denizen

I get it but take a look at dc , since 2007 the entire eastern end of downtown used to be like that , church parking lots next to homeless shelters … now there are maybe 2 lots left, filled in the apartments and office

I wonder if proximity to 6th street and the noise from concerts / clubs is part of the issue . Plus the need for some parking for out of town attendees

No, the noise issue isn't the problem. It's the open drug use on the sidewalks, needy bums, fights, and shootings. And if parking is the problem they can park in those huge vacant lots, just make sure to lock up your stuff.

Anyway, 6th Street is not where most Austinites go, at least, not the sane ones anyway. Most of us seem to avoid it, though, I'm sure the kids in the suburbs think it's swell. I haven't been down there in about 3 years, and that was the first I'm I'd been in probably a decade at least. Most of the music is crap anyway.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It is strange, however, how TX continues to be perceived as "affordable", even by people from states like Ohio and Indiana. You have people moving from Cleveland to Dallas and they talk about affordability, even though home prices are 2-3x as much and property taxes and fees are higher. It's weird. Are people not aware that a Dallas-area neighborhood with quality schools and a not-terrible commute means like 600k+ homes? How is that cheap for people from Ohio?

Probably more of the great sort. People are sorting off into their ideological/worldview bubbles. You also see this when people talk about leaving OH because it's too liberal, even though OH is more red than TX these days. TX will vote for a Dem POTUS long before OH.

Texas was affordable when I first moved here in the late 90's; the landlord offered to sell my parents the house they were renting for $125k. It was a small post war ranch in a nice area in a convenient location but that same house is worth about ~$400k (unrenovated) now. There are so many poor/ undesirable areas here in Houston (and TX in general) with cheap housing prices (~$100k) that it drives down the average overall.

[benp]

Originally Posted by JManc

Texas was affordable when I first moved here in the late 90's; the landlord offered to sell my parents the house they were renting for $125k. It was a small post war ranch in a nice area in a convenient location but that same house is worth about ~$400k (unrenovated) now. There are so many poor/ undesirable areas here in Houston (and TX in general) with cheap housing prices (~$100k) that it drives down the average overall.

The affordability of Houston was driven by the oil bust of the 1980s.

I arrived in Houston in 1982, and at the time Houston home prices were considerably higher than the national average, 2x to 3x prices that we had seen in the Rust Belt cities. That changed quickly with the oil crash, and as the fortunes of the Houston Metro swung from gaining 150,000 new residents in 1982 to losing 36,000 residents in 1987. By 1985 Houston home prices had fallen below the national average, and the spread continued to open through the end of the 80s when Houston was 20-30% below the national average. It wasn't until the 90s that population gains recommenced, and home prices began to move back upward. It wasn't even until the 2000s that Houston showed a net positive domestic migration (though again domestic migration turned negative by the mid 2010s).

[Manitopiaaa]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

^ i don't know how the data breaks down city vs. burbs, but both the dallas and houston MSAs were bluer in 2020 than they were in 2016.

in fact, the Dallas MSA saw one of the bigger blue shifts in the nation among large metros (though still very purple overall because of its much redder starting point).



blue margin by election year:

metro area: --- 2016 -- 2020 -- change

Dallas MSA: ---- -6.68 -- +1.16 -- +7.84

Houston MSA: -- -1.06 -- +1.06 -- +2.12

All of the Dallas suburbs shifted markedly left. Here all the Dallas MSA cities with more than 100,000 people. In sum, they are 4,757,002 people, or nearly 2/3rds of the metro area:

2016

• Allen (104,627 people in 2020): 40-53 Dem (-13)
• Arlington (394,266): 49-45 Dem (+4)
• Carrollton (133,434): 48-47 Dem (+1)
• Dallas (1,304,379): 67-29 Dem (+38)
• Denton (139,869): 47-46 Dem (+1)
• Fort Worth (918,915): 50-44 Dem (+6)
• Frisco (200,509): 39-56 Dem (-17)
• Garland (246,018): 52-44 Dem (+8)
• Grand Prairie (196,100): 60-36 Dem (+24)
• Irving (256,684): 57-38 Dem (+19)
• Lewisville (111,822): 45-49 Dem (-4)
• McKinney (195,308): 36-57 Dem (-21)
• Mesquite (150,108): 54-43 Dem (+11)
• Plano (285,494): 45-49 Dem (-4)
• Richardson (119,469): 48-46 Dem (+2)

2020

• Allen (104,627 people in 2020): 50-48 Dem (+2)
• Arlington (394,266): 56-43 Dem (+13)
• Carrollton (133,434): 56-43 Dem (+13)
• Dallas (1,304,379): 70-29 Dem (+41)
• Denton (139,869): 55-43 Dem (+12)
• Fort Worth (918,915): 55-43 Dem (+12)
• Frisco (200,509): 48-51 Dem (-3)
• Garland (246,018): 57-42 Dem (+15)
• Grand Prairie (196,100): 64-35 Dem (+29)
• Irving (256,684): 62-37 Dem (+25)
• Lewisville (111,822): 55-44 Dem (+11)
• McKinney (195,308): 46-52 Dem (-6)
• Mesquite (150,108): 60-38 Dem (+22)
• Plano (285,494): 54-45 Dem (+9)
• Richardson (119,469): 57-41 Dem (+16)

City by Margin Shift (2016-2020):

1. Allen: +15 Dem
2. Lewisville: +15 Dem
3. McKinney: +15 Dem
4. Frisco: +14 Dem
5. Richardson: +14 Dem
6. Plano: +13 Dem
7. Carrollton: +12 Dem
8. Denton: +11 Dem
9. Mesquite: +11 Dem
10. Arlington: +9 Dem
11. Garland: +7 Dem
12. Fort Worth: +6 Dem
13. Irving: +6 Dem
14. Grand Prairie: +5 Dem
15. Dallas: +3 Dem

As you can see, the further from Dallas, the bigger the shift toward Democrats since Dems saw some slippage in minority support.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

Columbus's downtown is not great but its 1800s and prewar neighborhoods are fantastic. German Village, Victorian Village, and Italian Village blow away anything in Texas. Cincinnati almost certainly has more and better 1800s and prewar neighborhoods than the entire state of Texas combined.

A friend of mine moved to Austin about 7 years ago to work at Whole Foods' HQ. His house has now appreciated so much that he has considered leaving that company in order to move back to Ohio with enough money to buy a nice house plus a rental in cash.

I knew it was just a matter of time before someone posted a "my city is better than your city", or "my state is better than your state". The last I checked, this thread wasn't about Columbus or Ohio.

[homebucket]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

In the city itself, it's not that easy to find a home for $600K that looks like it should cost that much. I'm five miles from downtown, and even some tear-downs are selling for more than that in my area of north central. In my neighborhood, my little 1400 ft2, almost 60 year old home will now sell for $750K, according to my realtor. And it hasn't been renovated other than tile throughout. It's also close to some homeless camps, and we've had trouble with a few abandoned homes. It's just that a lot of people want to live close in, including newcomers. I've been meeting them, and they have been coming from the west and east coasts, other areas of the south, and midwest, as well as other areas in Texas. It's mostly young couples, some with kids, who have very high paying jobs, mostly in tech. It's mind blowing to meet kids in their 20s who can afford these prices, but they can.

In the suburbs, $600K can still buy an exceptionally nice, large home in some areas. If work from home is going to be a long lasting thing, then it's not a bad deal to buy into a large, new home at a much better price. I guess it depends on one's circumstances.

That’s about where the Bay Area was 15-20 years ago. If Austin continues to grow at its current pace and not enough housing is built, you can expect to see todays Bay Area prices in the coming decade or two.

[DCReid]

San Antonio the top destination by far for renters bailing on Austin, study finds - Rents have skyrocketed in Austin, making San Antonio attractive to people looking for a better deal.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sananton...rs-austin.html

[edale]

I don't get the hype over Austin. It's fine but I don't see why it's such a hot spot these days. Even with all the crazy downtown construction, it felt small and suburban (quasi rural, actually) to me. You get like 5 mins south of downtown and you're in neighborhoods like this without sidewalks or any semblance of density:

https://www.google.com/maps/@30.2541...7i16384!8i8192

There were a couple of cool commercial nodes, but a lot of the major commercial corridors were basically suburban stroads. Texas Nashville.