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  #61  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 4:22 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Speaking of vote proportion inversions, I like this near perfect one between illinois and indiana.

State - biden / trump

IL - 57.2 / 40.8

IN - 40.9 / 57.0


The power of a super-alpha metro on full display.
So Illinois outside Chicagoland is basically Indiana.
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  #62  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 4:35 PM
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So Illinois outside Chicagoland is basically Indiana.
Illinois and indiana outside of chicagoland and metro Indy are very similar. Deep red cornfields sprinkled with a handful of blue college towns.

The difference is that chicagoland is 5x the size of metro indy and thus completely overwhelms downstate illinois in a way that indy can't do to indiana.

not to mention the fact that metro indy itself is a lot more purple overall than chicagoland is, so it starts with less power to counterbalance the farm vote, regardless of size.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 15, 2020 at 7:55 PM.
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  #63  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 7:53 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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Originally Posted by Jawnadelphia View Post
AZ, I think was pushed over the top by the Native American vote, and Phoenix suburbs that now look a lot more like heavily Democratic, younger, diverse voter we are seeing in the Atlanta suburbs, and Harris County, TX.
What Stacey Abrams (and the voter turnout groups associated with her) did in Georgia, Latinx/Hispanics and Native Americans did the same in Arizona, especially in Maricopa County (metro Phoenix). IIRC, groups like LUCHA AZ were going door to door throughout the Valley to encourage voter registration and turnout

However, Biden only won Arizona by about 10,000 votes and Democrats suffered big time in down ballot races across the state outside of the presidency and senate. That doesn't bode well for Arizona Democrats in 2022 and 2024. Honestly, I'm still surprised Biden won Arizona, and subsequently discouraged that it was by incredibly slim margins. It'll probably be another 24 years before this state votes for another Democratic presidential candidate.

The biggest surprise to me in Ohio was that the Mahoning Valley (Youngstown) went to Trump again. I thought that area might flip back to blue but I grew up on the opposite end of the state and have very little familiarity with it aside from it's Rust Belt reputation.

Nationwide, apparently there are complaints and grumbling that the Democrats didn't do enough to help focus/boost/fund races outside of the presidency and senate, as evidenced by the slim House majority and state legislatures remaining under GOP control.
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  #64  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 8:57 PM
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FFS, can we please keep this thread focused on analyzing the election results.

If you've got a personal political opinion to express, you know the appropriate fucking toilet to dump that shit in.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Nov 15, 2020 at 10:08 PM.
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  #65  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 10:44 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
Not surprised. 39 is Yorba Linda and Anaheim Hills, IIRC?

48 includes Huntington and Newport Beach. Arrested Development (at least, seasons 1 through 3) did a really good job of satirizing the kind of assholes who live in coastal Orange County.
Yeah the 2018 map reflects typical midterm voting patterns where the opposition party usually gain seats. It would have been tough to hold on to all of them in OC. Still, the long term trend is clear. OC going blue at all would have been unthinkable just 20 years ago.
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  #66  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 10:51 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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Hell, a blue OC was unthinkable even 15 years ago when I lived there.
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  #67  
Old Posted Nov 15, 2020, 10:52 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
Yeah the 2018 map reflects typical midterm voting patterns where the opposition party usually gain seats. It would have been tough to hold on to all of them in OC. Still, the long term trend is clear. OC going blue at all would have been unthinkable just 20 years ago.
It's worth mentioning Biden still won both these seats - and by wider margins than Hillary. The GOP only picked them back because of 1% of the electorate which voted Biden/GOP rep. But that 1% margin won't last for long.
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  #68  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2020, 12:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
that's a solid point.

MSAs are not all created equally.

looking at the data in Manitopiaaa's awesome table, you would see that SLC's MSA was more blue than St. louis' by a handful of points (+9 vs. +3).

however, the SLC MSA consists of only Salt Lake County and the very sparsely populated Tooele County to its west. that's it. one highly urbanized/suburbanized central county and then a gigantic unpopulated desert. nothing else.

all of the very red and highly populated counties directly adjacent to the north and south of salt lake county are in the separate ogden and provo MSAs.

the st. louis MSA, on the other hand sprawls across 15 counties (and the independent city of st. louis) in MO and IL, deep into SOLID red rural farm country in all directions.

that's not really apples to apples for comparative purposes.
There is no doubt Salt Lake is moving further and further to the left, though, even if marginally. In 2008, despite Obama having a landslide victory, he barely bested John McCain in the County.

Of course, it helps that Trump is despised by a great deal of residents here and the Republicans actually did better in the county-wide results than Democrats (picking up an at-large seat on the county council, as well as winning lower offices like County Assesser, Recorder and Treasure, though, the initial two were by a point or less - and Salt Lake County did reelect a Democratic mayor, so, a mixed result).

Still, the Wasatch Front still remains heavily conservative because, beyond Salt Lake County, the rest of the counties are still heavily LDS.

Just looking at the Wasatch Front, this is the results:

Utah County: Trump 183,008, Biden 72,324
Salt Lake County: Biden 266,080, Trump 206,835
Tooele County: Trump 21,006, Biden 8,936
Davis County: Trump 101,989, Biden 56,216
Weber County: Trump 64,066, Biden 39,652

So, total:

Trump: 576,904
Biden: 443,208

Just head-to-head, not counting the other parties, Trump won the Wasatch Front 56-43, which is probably the best a Democrat has done among these counties since LBJ in '64.

If you add Summit County (home to Park City), it helps Biden a little bit but not a lot:

Trump: 616,556
Biden: 507,274
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  #69  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2020, 1:38 AM
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Wow...Cincy is a more conservative metro than Jacksonville....who would've thought?
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  #70  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2020, 1:42 AM
Docere Docere is offline
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How could Jacksonville with its world class skyline go so strongly for Trump?
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  #71  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2020, 1:48 AM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
How could Jacksonville with its world class skyline go so strongly for Trump?
Mr. Trump, as you know, builds the biggest and best, most beautiful buildings. Tremendous buildings... buildings the likes of which you've never seen before.
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  #72  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2020, 2:00 AM
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Sam Hill Sam Hill is offline
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
How could Jacksonville with its world class skyline go so strongly for Trump?
Clearly this means all the cities that didn't go strongly for Trump were wrong. This would explain their inferior skylines.
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  #73  
Old Posted Nov 16, 2020, 8:31 PM
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This is not the proper thread for yet another stupid, tortured, partisan EC debate.

Election results only please.
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  #74  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 3:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
Am i the only one who enjoys the proportion inversion of ohio's 3 C's, from Cleveland down to Cincy?

City - biden/trump

Cleveland - 57.25/42.75

Columbus - 54.00/46.00

Cincinnati - 42.81/57.81
I am surprised by how closer Columbus is to Cleveland-much closer than to Cincinnati. I am really surprised Cincinnati came it 2nd place for reddest of the top 50 metros. I did not think it was that different from Columbus and Cleveland. Give it to Kentucky. lol Even Jacksonville with it's Toronto-beating skyline did not go so red.
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  #75  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 3:35 AM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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Cincinnati is strange. When half your metro is in Kentucky, I guess that's to be expected.
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  #76  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 3:41 AM
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Steely Dan Steely Dan is offline
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Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001 View Post
Cincinnati is strange. When half your metro is in Kentucky, I guess that's to be expected.
But metro louisville is more than half in Kentucky and it went ever so slightly blue.


The plot thickens.......
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  #77  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 11:32 PM
Docere Docere is offline
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Cincinnati has long had a very conservative reputation.
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  #78  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 11:42 PM
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"When the end of the world comes, I want to be in Cincinnati. It's always 20 years behind the times." -- misattributed to Mark Twain.
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  #79  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 11:48 PM
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I would like to know who the 20% are that voted Republican in San Francisco ? And even a bigger question is how they never left that city yet.
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  #80  
Old Posted Nov 17, 2020, 11:55 PM
edale edale is offline
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Originally Posted by toddguy View Post
I am surprised by how closer Columbus is to Cleveland-much closer than to Cincinnati. I am really surprised Cincinnati came it 2nd place for reddest of the top 50 metros. I did not think it was that different from Columbus and Cleveland. Give it to Kentucky. lol Even Jacksonville with it's Toronto-beating skyline did not go so red.
Some of it has to do with the way MSAs are put together. Cincinnati's MSA covers significantly more territory than either Columbus' or Cleveland's.

MSA area (sq miles)
Cincinnati- 4,808
Columbus- 3,169
Cleveland- 1,999

By contrast, Cleveland and Columbus add a ton of land when looking at CSAs, while Cincinnati only adds one county to its CSA.

CSA Area (sq miles)
Cincinnati- 5,195
Columbus- 8,466
Cleveland- 6,436

So, Cincinnati has more of its hinterlands included in its MSA definition than the other Cs. It also is historically more of a Republican city, and the collar counties of Butler, Clermont, and Warren are historically very conservative. Hamilton County was 57% for Biden, but that is lower than Franklin/Columbus (65%), Cuyahoga/Cleveland (67%), Allegheny/Pittsburgh (60%), and Marion/Indy (64%). So even the bluest part of the metro is less blue than neighboring, comparable cities.

You can probably look to a number of reasons why this is. One is that Cincinnati was never the union/labor center that Pittsburgh and Cleveland are/were. I know a lot of these blue collar dems have jumped the party ship, and you can certainly see the impact there in Pittsburgh. But Cincinnati largely never had much of this type of Democratic base back in the day. Its (white) labor class has always voted more Republican.

Cincinnati, like Pittsburgh, also has some pretty depressed older industrial cities in its suburban orbit. It's not all sprawl, but rather a fair number of older cities mixed in with the sprawl, and those places have turned very heavily for Trump. Industrial cities like Hamilton and Middletown (Hillbilly Elegy town) are full of white working class people, and are decidedly different demographics than most people think of as "the suburbs". Finally, Cincy has seen I think the second or third lowest levels of Hispanic immigration among major metros. I believe first in that category is Pittsburgh. Seems like the fringe of Appalachia is the biggest factor here, though it's a combination of all of the above.
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