Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed
Toronto isn't as far ahead as you would expect an undisputed primary city to be. It's trending in the right direction, for sure, but it doesn't seem to be a foregone conclusion yet.
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If you mean population-wise, statistical agency predictions generally point to Greater Toronto having around 10 million in 2040. Greater Montreal is forecast to be just over 5 million around 2040.
Though I must say that of late Montreal has been reaching demographic milestones a bit faster than predicted. (This is quite likely true for Toronto too, though I haven't heard it personally.)
Even so, Greater Montreal at 6-7 million would still be some distance behind Toronto.
Something big would have to change in terms of Toronto's and Montreal's demographic evolutions and I don't really see that happening.
At the moment Toronto is still growing more than Montreal in sheer numbers (and this is not expected to change) so the gap between the two should continue to widen.
Now, in terms of the non-numeric intangibles related to "undisputed primary city" status, I don't think Toronto will ever be that type of city for Canada as a whole. I gave some of the reasons in that other thread - above or below this one.
Toronto could become (as is forecast) twice as big as Montreal but the latter would still remain the undisputed primate city for Quebec/French Canada. Similarly to how when you're in French-speaking Switzerland, the big city is clearly Geneva and its big brother city psychologically is even arguably Paris, when in fact there is a city within the same country (Zurich) that is twice Geneva's size.
Also, the Anglo-Canada that Toronto "rules" (sic) is very large, with the population scattered over an impossibly huge area almost archipelago-style, all of which makes it kind of polycentric. So sure Toronto is the king but other smaller cities (Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Halifax, etc.) have what one might call regional fiefdoms as well. And of course NYC and LA also can play the metropolis role for Anglo-Canada (often in Toronto's place) for matters of culture, media and entertainment.