PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

Why is every news source touting this as fact????
It's an estimate. They have literally always been wrong.

Edit: the article even says not to take the data at face value, because it's an estimate. I hate stupid headlines.

Sensational headlines with not much meat to the story. But the Philly naysayers will be like "see! Philly is a shrinking cesspool" (without reading the article, or knowing anything about census estimates).

But in all seriousness, I hope the pandemic was a fluke on growth for many cities, and normalcy and healthy growth will gain momentum going forward.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...me-return.html

“Philadelphia employers least likely to bring employees back to the office full-time, study shows“

Nadda good. On another note, there was an Op-Ed in the Inky yesterday from Councilwoman Parker who announced that City Council is poised to go hard on quality of life and safety issues. I was hoping they’d do that and would see the writing on the wall. They’ve got to find ways to stop the bleeding and keep people in the city. Sounds like they’ll also flip the bird to the “defund” crowd and hire more police and fund law enforcement, which is good.

Again... I wouldn't put too much stock into this or fear monger too much over this.

1. We all knew we were going to come out of the pandemic into a very different world.

2. Remote work/work from home was becoming more and more of a trend anyways due to advances in technology. COVID only sped up a trend that was already occuring. We were bound to get here at some point eventually.

3. The "liberal" left-leaning metros are going to be ahead of the curve on something like this. NYC, Philly, San Fran, LA, etc. The "Conservative" right-leaning metros and counties (Houston, Dallas, Nashville, Atlanta) are going to be behind the curve on this.

4. Philadelphia will rebound in the lost jobs eventually. Especially if it continues to attract companies in the Life Sciences industry where work from home isn't as much of an option for a lot of employees (lab work).

5. If 51% are coming back full time, 24% will be back on a part time basis, and 21% will let their employees decide. Only 4% in the Philadelphia region will not reopen their offices. Again, I think we fared pretty well and better than I was expecting. If 51% will be back full time, and 24% will be back part time, that's AT LEAST 75% of employees back to the office at least a couple days a week. If employers are letting 21% decide, you have to imagine that AT LEAST half of those employees will decide to come back to the office part time. So, that's 87% of employees back to the office at least a couple days a week. I'll take that.

6. This is one time when we should ALL be happy that Center City is so heavily residential. Downtowns like Houston, Dallas, LA, San Fran, Boston are going to suffer MUCH more as they had heavier concentration of office buildings downtown.

7. What Philadelphia (and other areas) need to do moving forward is improve quality of life issues and making a strong sense of "place".... Philadelphia City Council needs to continue to improve QOL in the city of Philadelphia to make sure it's a place where people want to LIVE. Address crime, clean up the streets, improve schools, lower the wage tax, continue to pass development focused legislation that will continue to build up and improve neighborhoods, empty lots, blight and abandoned buildings, clean up parks, and rebuild walkable neighborhoods and commercial streets with restaurants, grocery stores, coffee shops and cafes, nightlife, retail, etc.... NOW more than ever, with more people being able to work remote and have more flexibility on where they can live, Philadelphia can REALLY capitalize on being an attractive place to live... and a MUCH more affordable place to live sandwiched between NYC and DC. This is where I think walkable areas with heavy amenities are strong senses of place are actually going to take off and become even more attractive - Rittenhouse Square, Old City, Midtown Village/Washington Square West, Fishtown, Northern Liberties, Spruce Hill, Manayunk, Chestnut Hill, Ardmore, West Chester, Media, Doylestown, Collingswood, Haddonfield, etc. etc.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

All very accurate, and the headlines are meaningless without that critical context. It's like, has everyone already forgotten that the whole world was (and honestly still is) on fire?

I'd also highlight some important silver linings that got lost in these estimates:



https://www.inquirer.com/news/philad...-20220324.html

First of all, who ever would have guessed that Philadelphia would have a fraction of the out-migration of a place like Miami? And I definitely wasn't expecting to hear that births still outnumbered deaths for the region.

The lack of huge regional out-migration and that fact that births stayed afloat means: 1) the region is doing a much better job compared to others in being able to attract/accommodate child-bearing families, and 2) population loss is much more likely to have occurred due to natural circumstances, as opposed to leaving by choice, which is much moreso the case in metros such as NY, Chicago, DC, Boston, SF, Miami and LA.

That's a huge testament to metro Philadelphia's livability.



I think with national labor shortages going on, many more companies will be forced to recognize part-time in-office work to be more competitive with prospective applicants, so I don't think this survey is capturing that. If anything, this shows Philadelphia is ahead of the curve in what will become the workplace standard, if not now, then certainly in the future.

Yep. 100% agree with all your points. People need to stop panicking over a global pandemic. If anything, this shows that Philadelphia's turnaround isn't as fragile as we thought, and the city and metro gave a big middle finger to COVID and kept chugging right along in it's resurgence.

[summersm343]

pHiLaDeLpHiA iS sHrInKiNg

A rEvErSaL iN rEcEnT pOpUlAtIoN tReNdS

Meanwhile....

PHILLY PERMITTED TWO-THIRDS OF THE HOUSING IN PA IN 2021

Read more here:
https://www.phila3-0.org/philly_perm..._in_pa_in_2021

[mark_phl]

I noticed that the "Available" signs were taken down at the old McDonalds lot at S. Broad and Carpenter yesterday. Additionally, the massive highway billboard eye-sore was demo'd from Kenny Gamble's long-empty neighboring lot a couple months ago. I wonder if these are signs of some development plans for these spaces. Together, that'd be a ton of space. All CMX-3, I believe.

[Londonee]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...me-return.html

“Philadelphia employers least likely to bring employees back to the office full-time, study shows“

It says back to work "Full Time" - the fact that ANY major-player employer would go back Full-Time in the near-future seems to be a death-blow to talent retention. So many companies are offering hybrid returns (Google for example is doing in the office T, W, R, and @Home Monday and Friday) that to be so dogmatic about 100% full time is just not going to win you many fans....

Frankly, I'd love to see something like the Google model become the "new normal." Cities would be their usual bustling self during these days - with workers, traveling consultants, engagements all crammed in to Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Friday would see less business crowds, but the city always benefits from the typical pre-weekend energy. Weekends are obviously always crowded here. Then Monday's would be the sleepy day to recover. Retail could adjust its hours to reflect this and capitalize.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...me-return.html

“Philadelphia employers least likely to bring employees back to the office full-time, study shows“

Nadda good. On another note, there was an Op-Ed in the Inky yesterday from Councilwoman Parker who announced that City Council is poised to go hard on quality of life and safety issues. I was hoping they’d do that and would see the writing on the wall. They’ve got to find ways to stop the bleeding and keep people in the city. Sounds like they’ll also flip the bird to the “defund” crowd and hire more police and fund law enforcement, which is good.

I mean. I happy to see some of this rhetoric and hope it comes to fruition.

I don't think we need to "hire" 300 more cops though. How about getting the 500 assholes on Heart & Lung disability back on the job. The city doesn't need to be spending more money. It needs to spend the money it already has more efficiently.

You can be for both policing reform and the police. You need measures to hold bad cops accountable and you need the ability to actually put cops who already have jobs on the street. Also, it's so elementary, but you know, walking around a neighborhood as opposed to sitting in a car all day would also help.

One thing I'm gonna say (because I never supported its end) is that it's time to bring back stop and frisk (in a mitigated way). You gotta get illegal guns off the street and the only way to do this in a meaningful way is with stop in frisk in high risk hot spots.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I mean. I happy to see some of this rhetoric and hope it comes to fruition.

I don't think we need to "hire" 300 more cops though. How about getting the 500 assholes on Heart & Lung disability back on the job. The city doesn't need to be spending more money. It needs to spend the money it already has more efficiently.

You can be for both policing reform and the police. You need measures to hold bad cops accountable and you need the ability to actually put cops who already have jobs on the street. Also, it's so elementary, but you know, walking around a neighborhood as opposed to sitting in a car all day would also help.

One thing I'm gonna say (because I never supported its end) is that it's time to bring back stop and frisk (in a mitigated way). You gotta get illegal guns off the street and the only way to do this in a meaningful way is with stop in frisk in high risk hot spots.

Yep. 100% Stop and frisk clearly worked. It was implemented by Nutter and I believe Ramsey was the Police Commissioner at the time. It CLEARLY worked, and brought violent crime and shootings down significantly for 4 or 5 years. It's time to bring it back.

[summersm343]

Fine Print: Joint venture breaks ground on 137,000 SF Navy Yard site

A venture among Ensemble Real Estate Investments, Mosaic Development Partners and Oxford Properties Group broke ground on 1201 Normandy Place, a 137,000-square-foot lab building at the Philadelphia Navy Yard. The project is being developed on speculation and will cater to smaller cell and gene therapy companies.

Article behind paywall here:
https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...Pos=1#cxrecs_s

[mcgrath618]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Yep. 100% Stop and frisk clearly worked. It was implemented by Nutter and I believe Ramsey was the Police Commissioner at the time. It CLEARLY worked, and brought violent crime and shootings down significantly for 4 or 5 years. It's time to bring it back.

The Fourth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

[summersm343]

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

The Fourth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America

Which I understand, and which is a reason why it was stopped in Philadelphia and ultimately NYC as well, BUT it is unlawful to own a firearm in Philadelphia (or anywhere in the country for that matter) without a license to carry. Majority of shootings in the city are committed with illegal fire arms. Amendments can be revised and should be decennially.

One could argue that if the police are aware of suspicious activities of a certain person, this should give them probable cause to stop and frisk you, which would keep the law well in-line with the Fourth Amendment if performed correctly. Case in point:

"A warrant is needed for most search and seizure activities, but the Court has carved out a series of exceptions for consent searches, motor vehicle searches, evidence in plain view, exigent circumstances, border searches, and other situations."

Plus, I'm not one of those people whom fully believes the Constitution and it's fourth amendment (among other amendments) written in 1789 should guide the laws of a modern day society 233 years later, and should probably be revised every 10 years or so to keep the constitution on par with modern times.

There are other things we can do, like pass laws as a state that allow the authorities to target illegal gun sales, ghost guns, etc.... but nothing will get illegal guns off the streets and allow for a reduction in gun violence and violent crimes quicker than stop and frisk. Otherwise, the cops are essentially waiting around for a crime to be committed with the gun before they can confiscate it and arrest the suspect... if an arrest is made at all, which more often than not does NOT occur on the first violent crime committed.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by summersm343

pHiLaDeLpHiA iS sHrInKiNg

A rEvErSaL iN rEcEnT pOpUlAtIoN tReNdS

Meanwhile....

PHILLY PERMITTED TWO-THIRDS OF THE HOUSING IN PA IN 2021

Read more here:
https://www.phila3-0.org/philly_perm..._in_pa_in_2021

Both can be true at the same time. And at the end of the day we want more people, not just more buildings in conjunction with a stagnant or slowly declining population.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...me-return.html

“Philadelphia employers least likely to bring employees back to the office full-time, study shows“

Nadda good. On another note, there was an Op-Ed in the Inky yesterday from Councilwoman Parker who announced that City Council is poised to go hard on quality of life and safety issues. I was hoping they’d do that and would see the writing on the wall. They’ve got to find ways to stop the bleeding and keep people in the city. Sounds like they’ll also flip the bird to the “defund” crowd and hire more police and fund law enforcement, which is good.

I just read the op ed and its a step in the right direction, it shows that unlike Kenney some folks are in touch with the fact that people are tired of these QOL and safety issues. We need a plan, we need leadership - there is none coming from where it is expected. I also think this makes it clear there is a growing gap between many on Council and "we dont have a violence problem" Krasner.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by summersm343

Could be somewhat true due to COVID, rioting, looting, protests, etc... but we've probably already rebounded by now in Philly, and a lot of this was probably college kids not living on or near campus, people in rental situations moving home with parents, etc. etc.

Also, I've learned to take the yearly census estimates with a HUGE grain of salt. The actual count is ever decade, and even that is guessing to an extent. The yearly estimates are just that... estimates.

Home and apartments are being built left and right now in Philadelphia, and homes are flying off the shelves, and apartments are 97% occupied. We gotta be back to 2020 population and even grown some since then and regained any loses experienced in 2021.

I think I have mentioned this before (only to be ignored) but Philadelphia continues to bleed population from working class/middle class black neighborhoods. This is one reason why you may see anemic growth or population loss in spite of the most construction we've likely seen since the 1950s or 1960s- the areas where this building is happening are NOT the areas where people are fleeing. The areas being developed are geographically small relative to the whole city- so if you are bleeding people from NW, Upper North and NE Philly it can more than compensate for gains in all the hot inner city areas where cheaply built apts are being thrown up to rent for $2000 a month. There are only 5 kids on my entire block- this is typical of blocks in my area- lots of seniors who have been in their houses for decades- very few young families and very few people who are in child bearing stage of life. 99% of the homes up here are occupied but unlike decades past most are not filled with FAMILIES, many are occupied by a single senior whose kids have moved out of the city many years ago. I guarantee you the population up here was higher in 1980 or 1990 even though overall occupancy probably barely changed.

[allovertown]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

https://www.bizjournals.com/philadel...me-return.html

“Philadelphia employers least likely to bring employees back to the office full-time, study shows“

Nadda good. On another note, there was an Op-Ed in the Inky yesterday from Councilwoman Parker who announced that City Council is poised to go hard on quality of life and safety issues. I was hoping they’d do that and would see the writing on the wall. They’ve got to find ways to stop the bleeding and keep people in the city. Sounds like they’ll also flip the bird to the “defund” crowd and hire more police and fund law enforcement, which is good.

1. Great news to me. I'm never working full time in an office again and a lot of companies are realizing there are a lot of people like me. If you want to be competitive and try to hire someone like me you can't go full time in office. The important thing is we don't want companies forcing people to stay home. Flexibility is the key here. If given the choice plenty of people will want to come into the office at least some of the time. But there is no returning to the old dynamic. It's good philly companies have already realized that, trying to turn back the clock is an impossible task that it's best not to waste time on. better to move forward in the world that now exists.

2. There is no correlation between police funding and crime https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...nt-less-crime/

3. Police don't stop crime https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgo...it-have-merit/

4. Money given to the police is money inefficiently spent and most of it does not go towards preventing crime https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/21...r-daniel-prude

5. Defund the police.

[allovertown]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

I mean. I happy to see some of this rhetoric and hope it comes to fruition.

I don't think we need to "hire" 300 more cops though. How about getting the 500 assholes on Heart & Lung disability back on the job. The city doesn't need to be spending more money. It needs to spend the money it already has more efficiently.

You can be for both policing reform and the police. You need measures to hold bad cops accountable and you need the ability to actually put cops who already have jobs on the street. Also, it's so elementary, but you know, walking around a neighborhood as opposed to sitting in a car all day would also help.

One thing I'm gonna say (because I never supported its end) is that it's time to bring back stop and frisk (in a mitigated way). You gotta get illegal guns off the street and the only way to do this in a meaningful way is with stop in frisk in high risk hot spots.

Originally Posted by mcgrath618

The Fourth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America

Oh that pesky Constitution. What's a little destruction of fundamental liberties between friends?

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by cardeza

I think I have mentioned this before (only to be ignored) but Philadelphia continues to bleed population from working class/middle class black neighborhoods. This is one reason why you may see anemic growth or population loss in spite of the most construction we've likely seen since the 1950s or 1960s- the areas where this building is happening are NOT the areas where people are fleeing. The areas being developed are geographically small relative to the whole city- so if you are bleeding people from NW, Upper North and NE Philly it can more than compensate for gains in all the hot inner city areas where cheaply built apts are being thrown up to rent for $2000 a month. There are only 5 kids on my entire block- this is typical of blocks in my area- lots of seniors who have been in their houses for decades- very few young families and very few people who are in child bearing stage of life. 99% of the homes up here are occupied but unlike decades past most are not filled with FAMILIES, many are occupied by a single senior whose kids have moved out of the city many years ago. I guarantee you the population up here was higher in 1980 or 1990 even though overall occupancy probably barely changed.

I get your point but you're exaggerating the geographic scope of the decline. Some of the fastest growing census tracts in the city were in NE Philadelphia and it's clearly related to in-migration of immigrants from abroad and New York City.

But you're 100% correct when it comes to far North Philly (i.e. particularly the areas people consider "Up Town"...the Oak Lanes, Olney, Logan, Cedarbrook), Far SW Philly, and Eastwick.

I'd say everywhere else is growing. Ideally, it would be growing more because people were staying + we were adding new comers, but to look at all the areas of the city that are burgeoning and then say the growth is isolated geographically is disingenuous. There's new construction in places that haven't seen investment in decades.

In NW Philly, things are literally ablaze in Roxborough, Manayunk, Wissahickon, East Falls, and West Germantown. The stagnant areas of that part of the city are Cedarbrook, West Oak Lane, East Germantown, Nicetown.

In South Philly, literally no single neighborhood is stagnant.

North Philly south of Lehigh is filling in everywhere. The Riverwards filling in everywhere.

Northeast Philly, say, south and west of Levick is where the decline is continuing. North and east of Levick is also booming.

The zone of decline slash continued exodus is generally north of Lehigh, say west of Frankford and Torresdale, west to Fairmount Park up through Montgomery County Line.

Yes the area is vast but it's a far smaller area than was in decline a few decades ago. Generally, North Central and Far North Philadelphia. Add in the northern most part of NW Philly and Eastwick.

[summersm343]

^^ Thank you for responding so I don't have to. Agree with all your points.

There are 372 total census tracts in Philadelphia.

Between 2010 and 2020:

Center City - all of the census tracts showed increases in population

South Philadelphia - 6 census tracts showed population declines. The rest showed population increases or no change

West Philadelphia - 15 census tracts showed population declines. The rest showed population increases or no change

Southwest Philadelphia - 12 census tracts showed population declines. The rest, well you know by now.

Northwest Philadelphia - 16 census tracts showed population declines. The rest...

Northeast Philadelphia - 5 census tracts showed population declines. The rest...

North Philadelphia (including the Riverwards and "Upper North" Philly) - 51 census tracts showed popoulation declines. The rest showed growth or no change.

That's 105 census tracts that showed population decline. Keep in mind that most places showing decline are due to household size changes.... with only about 18 tracts showing no change in population, that leaves 249 census tracts in the city of Philadelphia gaining population.

Therefore, 67% of the city is gaining population, 5% of the city is showing no change in population (total of 72% of the city gaining population or stagnant). 28% of the city is declining in population.

So yes, the majority of the city is gaining population.... and since the census tracts GAINING THE MOST in population in Philadelphia are also the DENSEST POPULATION tracts.... there's no way that densely growing neighborhoods of the city are being offset by loses in less densely populated areas of the city mostly being driven by changes in household sizes.

Further, as stated before, an estimate in population "decline" during one year of a global pandemic is not indicative of changing population trends. If the next two or so years show population declines as well, then we can start to be concerned. We'll revisit this topic next March.

[skyhigh07]

“3. The "liberal" left-leaning metros are going to be ahead of the curve on something like this. NYC, Philly, San Fran, LA, etc. The "Conservative" right-leaning metros and counties (Houston, Dallas, Nashville, Atlanta) are going to be behind the curve on this.”


I mean, I appreciate the optimism, but trying to spin population loss as a good sign is the epitome of wishful thinking. Also, the “conservative” counties that gained population last year will be “behind the curb” in terms of working from home? Why? Lol. Also, none of the metros you listed are “conservative” btw. They’re just in more right leaning states.

I agree in the abstract that’s it’s not as bad as NYC, Chicago, SF etc and there are obviously bright spots but I think it’s important to acknowledge the loss is unfortunate and real. I get every cloud has a silver lining but what exactly would be bad news then?

However, I agree things can be turned around and the proof will be in pudding if the trend continues next year, but it’ll largely be dependent on if the city can tack back to the center on some of the quality of life and public safety issues.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by skyhigh07

I mean, I appreciate the optimism, but trying to spin population loss as a good sign is the epitome of wishful thinking. Also, the “conservative” counties that gained population last year will be “behind the curb” in terms of working from home? Why? Lol. Also, none of the metros you listed are “conservative” btw. They’re just in more right leaning states.

I agree in the abstract that’s it’s not as bad as NYC, Chicago, SF etc and there are obviously bright spots but I think it’s important to acknowledge the loss is unfortunate and real. I get every cloud has a silver lining but what exactly would be bad news then?

However, I agree things can be turned around but it’ll largely be dependent if the city can tack back to the center on some of the quality of life and public safety issues.

You actually think there are 25K fewer people here now than there were a year ago?

You have to be smoking crack. Everyone acknowledges it was the case at a very specific moment in time in the pandemic. And everyone acknowledges middle class black families are generally leaving the city and it needs to be addressed.

I don't think anyone believes there are 25K fewer people in Philadelphia NOW compared to March 2020. That's an insane assessment in a city where there is construction everywhere and a 3% vacancy rate for apartments. I live in a new construction neighborhood where things are selling so fast (600 homes between 2 developers) that they just bought another 12 or so acres abutting our site to build another 300 homes. That's 900 houses on a plot that didn't exist 2 years ago.