If the U.S. Collapses, What Would Be The Future of Your State (and City)

[kool maudit]

Can we be a big mall? Yes, quite likely. Could Toronto have many giant towers? Absolutely. Could questions fundamental to the interests of the United States of America start to be decided in between them? Certainly not.

Canada could probably not even maintain a TikTok meaningfully independent of US security state involvement, let alone a foreign policy.

[kool maudit]

Now that I am thinking of it, I wonder what some of Canada's local separatist movements might start to look like in an environment where Ottawa is trying to pursue foreign policy objectives at real odds with Washington? Bigger, I'd suspect. Brasher. More destabilizing.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by kool maudit

120 million warm bodies does very little to the power relations involved. There are military questions. Canada does not maintain absolute control over its own airspace under the current NORAD structure, for example. If we attempted to change this, whether with 37 million people or 12 million, we'd feel the presence of the leash quite quickly. The realm of liberal democratic soft power in which Canada prefers to operate, population growth schemes included, is essentially that of the US hegemonic structure. The German and British leaders can be brought to heel with little struggle and these are respectively economic and nuclear great powers.

An independently-minded Canada, once it found its chosen point of difference, would find itself awash in Suezes quickly.

Canada is entering a precarious century where its ongoing fight for independence (first from Britain and now the United States) will be sorely tested. It's foolhardy to believe Canada can become fully sovereign in a world of giants like the US, EU, China, etc. As you've rightly pointed out, even powerful countries like the UK and Germany struggle with these things.

Canada is intrinsically tethered to the United States geographically, economically, culturally, socially, politically ....and they to us. That's an inescapable truth. The question for Canadians is whether we can co-exist with the United States in harmony without being absorbed into it. That has been the Canadian story since Confederation in 1867. To maintain a semblance of sovereignty, Canada will have to walk a tight rope. As long as our national interests roughly align with theirs we will be fine. The problem arises when our interests don't. Northwest Passage? Free Trade? Buy America? The development of domestic industrial clusters that are competitive with Wall Street, Silicon Valley, Hollywood, etc.

Being one ninth the size of the US demographically puts Canada at a severe negotiating disadvantage. By no means, do Canadian think tanks suggest that Canada can achieve equal footing with the United States but a 6:1 ratio or 5:1 ratio puts us in a far better position than the current 9:1 ratio. Just look what happened when Canada panicked over the Buy America policy. Ontario was economically important enough to Michigan, Ohio, and other big US mid-west states that Canada managed an exemption. These states lobbied for it in Washington. Canada doesn't need to be as big as the US, just big enough. The bigger we are, the more negotiating power we have. If we're too small, we'll simply get bulldozed.

Canada has been a stalwart member of the Western world since the end of WW2. Does the US want Canada relegated to a weak puppet state of the US or Canada as a strong independent Western nation? Canada has to convince the US that the latter is in their national interest.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Canada is entering a precarious century where its ongoing fight for independence (first from Britain and now the United States) will be sorely tested. It's foolhardy to believe Canada can become fully sovereign in a world of giants like the US, EU, China, etc. As you've rightly pointed out, even powerful countries like the UK and Germany struggle with these things.

Canada seems like the luckiest country in the world... at least since the mid-20th century. It gets way more out of being the U.S.'s neighbor to the north than the U.S. gets from Canada.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Canada seems like the luckiest country in the world... at least since the mid-20th century. It gets way more out of being the U.S.'s neighbor to the north than the U.S. gets from Canada.

I think that's a very American take on the situation.

Because of the United States, Canada has always had to live in a position of compromise so as not to disturb the sleeping beast.

For example, I'm not too proud that we clung to being a dominion of Great Britain for as long as we did, but, in hindsight, I'm glad we were a domain of the world's largest power during those years between 1865-1918 when America was feeling particularly brawny, there were no international rules, and it saw the rest of the Western Hemisphere as its exploitable playground. To this day, where Canada can have a world presence at all, it's either in digging stuff out of the ground that just happen to be on our territory, in little niche industries that aren't of strategic importance - like film production - or in companies that own global assets that are managed elsewhere or provide unsexy services that have no public presence. Whenever there's anything remotely strategic, like aerospace or smartphones or telecommunications, it gets snuffed out. Some of that is the fault of shortsighted Canadian business attitudes, but I don't think we'll ever see a Canadian equivalent of TSMC or ASML or have a Canadian-owned company own a globally-significant share of cloud computing infrastructure.

We'll always be resigned to offering Americans medium-value goods and services in a country that's integrated into your supply chain and where you can pay workers about 75% of what you would back home. That means that our best and brightest - whether they're in industries that could vault us forward or cultural stars that could put us on the world stage - are yours for the taking.

[JManc]

Disagree about Canada's inability to have a major global conglomerate. It certainly has the economic heft, high tech labor pool and global competitiveness. Toronto is quickly becoming a significant tech presence.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think that's a very American take on the situation.

Because of the United States, Canada has always had to live in a position of compromise so as not to disturb the sleeping beast.

For example, I'm not too proud that we clung to being a dominion of Great Britain for as long as we did, but, in hindsight, I'm glad we were a domain of the world's largest power during those years between 1865-1918 when America was feeling particularly brawny, there were no international rules, and it saw the rest of the Western Hemisphere as its exploitable playground. To this day, where Canada can have a world presence at all, it's either in digging stuff out of the ground that just happen to be on our territory, in little niche industries that aren't of strategic importance - like film production - or in companies that own global assets that are managed elsewhere or provide unsexy services that have no public presence. Whenever there's anything remotely strategic, like aerospace or smartphones or telecommunications, it gets snuffed out. Some of that is the fault of shortsighted Canadian business attitudes, but I don't think we'll ever see a Canadian equivalent of TSMC or ASML or have a Canadian-owned company own a globally-significant share of cloud computing infrastructure.

We'll always be resigned to offering Americans medium-value goods and services in a country that's integrated into your supply chain and where you can pay workers about 75% of what you would back home. That means that our best and brightest - whether they're in industries that could vault us forward or cultural stars that could put us on the world stage - are yours for the taking.

I fully recognize that it would never happen, but a United States of Canada and America with the American Constitution and amendments to that Constitution following certain principles in the Canadian Charter of Rights and Canadian Law (language, for one, education and healthcare are others) would be better for both Canadians AND Americans. There aren’t that many cultural differences, tbh, and the ones that exist are minor. What differs are histories, but histories are taught to the next generation and when cultures are so similar, histories can be shared. And in reality… our histories are greatly shared. Elementary opinion (close your eyes): if the north and south can fight a war over slavery and come back together and last, two countries which have shared histories that may have fought one war can join together.

I think one of the bigger sticking points would be that the United States requires equal suffrage in the Senate without any feasible way around that, and Canada’s Constitution makes a big deal that their upper house be apportioned by population as well.

[Obadno]

Canda is literally just Barnicle clinging to the American dominated North American economic zone.

Anyone trying to pretend otherwise is absolutely dreaming. like 90% of the population lives within 100 miles of the US border. There are 10x as many Americans as Canadians.

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Sounds eerily like the Russian mindset regarding Ukraine. The similarities don't stop there either.

It's not even remotely comparable lol. So much drivel to write you don't understand what Youa are talking about Ukraine has been part of Russia and its various forms of empire for centuries which is the essence of this current conflict. There is no Russian government or leadership that will not try to exert control over its traditional buffer states. If they can do it diplomatically (see Kazakstan and Belarus) they will, If they need to drop soldiers in (See Georgia, Crimea, Ukraine, Transnistria) They will. The only way Russia wont do this, is if Russia as a nation does not exist.

Ukraine would have been conquered in a few weeks without NATO dumping unlimited money and weapons on them. Its just more geopolitics and the Cold War never ended it just had a 25 ish year half-time.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Obadno

Canda is literally just Barnicle clinging to the American dominated North American economic zone.

Anyone trying to pretend otherwise is absolutely dreaming. like 90% of the population lives within 100 miles of the US border. There are 10x as many Americans as Canadians.

This is like saying the Netherlands is a barnacle clinging on to Germany or something, which is completely untrue.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

I think that's a very American take on the situation.

Because of the United States, Canada has always had to live in a position of compromise so as not to disturb the sleeping beast.

For example, I'm not too proud that we clung to being a dominion of Great Britain for as long as we did, but, in hindsight, I'm glad we were a domain of the world's largest power during those years between 1865-1918 when America was feeling particularly brawny, there were no international rules, and it saw the rest of the Western Hemisphere as its exploitable playground. To this day, where Canada can have a world presence at all, it's either in digging stuff out of the ground that just happen to be on our territory, in little niche industries that aren't of strategic importance - like film production - or in companies that own global assets that are managed elsewhere or provide unsexy services that have no public presence. Whenever there's anything remotely strategic, like aerospace or smartphones or telecommunications, it gets snuffed out. Some of that is the fault of shortsighted Canadian business attitudes, but I don't think we'll ever see a Canadian equivalent of TSMC or ASML or have a Canadian-owned company own a globally-significant share of cloud computing infrastructure.

We'll always be resigned to offering Americans medium-value goods and services in a country that's integrated into your supply chain and where you can pay workers about 75% of what you would back home. That means that our best and brightest - whether they're in industries that could vault us forward or cultural stars that could put us on the world stage - are yours for the taking.

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

This is like saying the Netherlands is a barnacle clinging on to Germany or something, which is completely untrue.

Bad comparison. Dutch is a separate language and culture altogether from German, even if it is a Germanic Language (so is English) and is only somewhat mutually intelligible with German. They are about as mutually intelligible as Spanish and Catalan (which is part of Spain), maybe even as far apart as Spanish and Italian.

This is in contrast to Canada and The United States which share a language, with very similar dialects and accents, and much more recent history and modern culture.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Bad comparison. Dutch is a separate language and culture altogether from German, even if it is a Germanic Language (so is English) and is only somewhat mutually intelligible with German. They are about as mutually intelligible as Spanish and Catalan, maybe even as far apart as Spanish and Italian.

This is in contrast to Canada and The United States which share a language, with very similar dialects and accents, and much more recent history and modern culture.

Significant portions of Canada are Francophone. Maybe more like (half of) Belgium and France then . The point is that a smaller country next to a larger country with similar language/culture isn't just an unofficial appendage, that's a very imperialistic mindset.

Now Moldova on the other hand, that definitely belongs to Romania :-p.

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Significant portions of Canada are Francophone. Maybe more like (half of) Belgium and France then .

Well, Canada certainly isn’t a barnacle.

I think a more apt comparison would be New Zealand and Australia. Both largely Anglophone colonial states, but one is significantly larger than the other and drives a substantial portion of the smaller country’s economy.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Well, Canada certainly isn’t a barnacle.

I think a more apt comparison would be New Zealand and Australia. Both largely Anglophone colonial states, but one is significantly larger than the other and drives a substantial portion of the smaller country’s economy.

Yeah, I agree with that, and that's a good comparison. I was responding to Obadno's ridiculous claim about Canada.

[Centropolis]

Canada to me appears to reap the better rewards while having laid down an extra layer of insulation to the worst American impulses - sort of how California used to look to me but with a 2X layer of armor against the drunk colossus.

This doesnt speak to the very real issue of sovereignty that Canadians grapple with - just an American “damage control” point if view from a core imperial extraction district.

[Centropolis]

Anyway if the US collapses I’ll have a clear view over Missouri mesas to the west from my compound (not kidding) of the incoming Kansas Airforce since our B-2s are now scrap metal. Unfortunately my property is directly downwind of the Calloway reactor.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

Well, Canada certainly isn’t a barnacle.

I think a more apt comparison would be New Zealand and Australia. Both largely Anglophone colonial states, but one is significantly larger than the other and drives a substantial portion of the smaller country’s economy.

A far better comparison. I've encountered Kiwis who have tried to claim something similar. I think New Zealand is a country that we should be more open to taking cues from, and them more from us. Anyway.

As for the OP's question, i'm not certain. It's something i've tried to think about over the past little bit but haven't been able to find an answer that i'm happy with. It's unfortunately becoming easier to envision a scenario where something drastic happens in the US but it really depends on what the primary catalyst is and how it would affect Canada. In most scenarios there would be significant spillage across the border, either in people or ideology or a combination. Canada isn't the most unified of countries on the best of days so it would be easy to see specific regions or provinces picking a side if things came down to it, essentially emulating what is happening to the south on a lesser scale, as we already do with just about everything.

[Centropolis]

NZ is awesome and I hope to return someday but it’s a special case and basically the west coast of the U.S. without any large or massive cities or important ports moving natural resources out, or containers in (although Auckland and Welly are large and well built enough by my standards) and simply isn't strategically important like Canada to the “west.”

[Acajack]

The Canada-New Zealand comparisons are interesting since Canada is in fact quite a bit larger than... Australia. In area and population.

And New Zealand has a similar population to Greater Montréal.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The Canada-New Zealand comparisons are interesting since Canada is in fact quite a bit larger than... Australia. In area and population.

And New Zealand has a similar population to Greater Montréal.

The Canada-NZ comparison makes sense due to each having a big brother right next door who’s culturally almost the same thing except one order of magnitude bigger (and the junior always being in the shadow of the senior on basically all stages — with the lone exception of global hockey tournaments, maybe*)

*If NZ can occasionally kick Australia’s ass at rugby, then the analogy is even more perfect.