PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread II

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by Gatorade_Jim

While I can't comment on whether your observation is true or not, it certainly is true that Americans today have fewer children than they did 30 or 40 years ago.

It seems to me that fewer families, and more one or two person middle and upper-middle class households, is good for the city. More funding for the school system with fewer children to serve seems to be a recipe for better outcomes.

I don't know that a city that only houses young singles and seniors is what we should be striving for and it supports the notion that we can be losing population in spite of seeing lots of apts built in a select few parts of the city. While there is a lot of construction going on by Philly standards we have to remember that is going on in a fraction of city neighborhoods. I find that these conversations about anecdotal evidence of growth are based on very narrow demographics- based on apts leasing up it is true that Philly seems to be continuing to attract single working professionals that are likely to have decent income, no kids, no car and a desire to live in Northern Libs or South Philly- the problem is its not attracting or retaining enough folks from other demographics.

[el don]

Average households have decreased in size in the US from 70 (3.14) to now (2.51 as of 2023), which is pretty sizable drop when you extrapolate it across Philly and the surrounding metro.

I would be curious to know the number of undocumented people in Philly at this point compared to the total population. There could be a sizable swing in total population if a massive roundup as Trump is calling for were to occur. I know rental prices would go down with houses and apartment's getting freed up, but there would also be a lot more vacancy in less desirable areas as well.

[Skintreesnail]

Tons of families in graduate hospital. I have 2 kids myself. Walking down 22nd is sometimes a constant stream of kids and strollers.

[Mayormccheese]

Originally Posted by Skintreesnail

Tons of families in graduate hospital. I have 2 kids myself. Walking down 22nd is sometimes a constant stream of kids and strollers.

My block in point breeze alone has over 10 kids

[TonyTone]

I know most of us on this forum are Pro Build, but I think a lot of us forget about the other neighborhoods in the city where people live.

Kensington, Poplar, Kingsessing, The Bottom, North Central, Hunting Park, Mill Creek, Frankford, Juanita, Germantown, Fairhill, Strawberry Mansion, and other neighborhoods are not experiencing the growth of the neighborhoods that are experiencing growth, they are hollowing out due to disinvestment.

Not to mention those are black, and brown neighborhoods of Philly, families who have been here for decades, they will leave to go to Areas Like Bear, Delaware, NJ, Pa, and Maryland.

Of course if you go to Fishtown or Fairmount you will see families and 1000 kids those are invested neighborhoods with all the bells and whistles.

We tend to overlook the other neighborhoods of the working class people that allow this city to run.

So yes Cardeza is right. DINKS & INKS are in mass influx in cities across the country.

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

^ even assuming that you may be right in the short term, you certainly aren’t in the long-term. A lack of families means fewer future residents. You can’t get your population from somewhere else indefinitely.

This is nowhere close to a Philly-only concern, though. The fact of the matter is the birth rate is dropping globally, and especially in developed countries like the US. It's an extremely global, macroeconomic issue that accelerates with wealth and education levels.

There's so many factors that are contributing to this phenomenon, but there is literally no exception: every metro area with an advanced/knowledge economy is faced with very low net gains, if not outright declining, natural population and it has to make up for it with immigration.

Attracting more immigration has to be the way forward for the city to stabilize/grow in more neighborhoods, and Philly, while improving, still punches below its weight in immigrant atteaction. As for more births/families, unless there's a MASSIVE shift in life/work culture and MASSIVE investments in things like public childcare, you can absolutely expect the birth rate to continue to plateau at "below replacement" levels.

Also, I know this might sound crass or elitist, but it's just the honest truth: depopulation in the most deprived and worst-off neighborhoods is arguably not a bad thing for both Philly or the people living in these neighborhoods. There's no doubt in my mind that such deep, multi-generational and concentrated poverty and competition for resources is what allows crime and disinvestment to fester year-after-year. Some more moderate depopulation will arguably allow for reduced likelihood for crime, opportunities for more stabilization and then eventually, reintroduction of new middle-class households to lift the quality of life.

That might be a rose-colored view of what will occur, but it honestly at this point seems to be the only way back from decline and hopelessness in these areas.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

This is nowhere close to a Philly-only concern, though. The fact of the matter is the birth rate is dropping globally, and especially in developed countries like the US. It's an extremely global, macroeconomic issue that accelerates with wealth and education levels.

There's so many factors that are contributing to this phenomenon, but there is literally no exception: every metro area with an advanced/knowledge economy is faced with very low net gains, if not outright declining, natural population and it has to make up for it with immigration.

Attracting more immigration has to be the way forward for the city to stabilize/grow in more neighborhoods, and Philly, while improving, still punches below its weight in immigrant atteaction. As for more births/families, unless there's a MASSIVE shift in life/work culture and MASSIVE investments in things like public childcare, you can absolutely expect the birth rate to continue to plateau at "below replacement" levels.

Also, I know this might sound crass or elitist, but it's just the honest truth: depopulation in the most deprived and worst-off neighborhoods is arguably not a bad thing for both Philly or the people living in these neighborhoods. There's no doubt in my mind that such deep, multi-generational and concentrated poverty and competition for resources is what allows crime and disinvestment to fester year-after-year. Some more moderate depopulation will arguably allow for reduced likelihood for crime, opportunities for more stabilization and then eventually, reintroduction of new middle-class households to lift the quality of life.

That might be a rose-colored view of what will occur, but it honestly at this point seems to be the only way back from decline and hopelessness in these areas.

Its not just that, there is population decline in stable neighborhoods such as mine on the northern city border because its not a place where families are necessarily choosing to live if they have the means to live in Delaware or move down south. So no, Philly is not always better off if people depopulate "lesser" areas. Many middle class minority areas are somewhere between stagnation and decline in terms of population because they are not competitive with other areas based on housing stock, schools and safety. If Philadelphia could stop the outmigration of working and middle class blacks it would be able to gain population overall. I've said it before and it seems at least one other person here gets it. We are not loosing the poorest folks, we are losing a lot of educated and middle class black residents. Also a lot of people who attend college who are from Philadelphia do not come back here or come back short term before moving elsewhere. I know tons of people like this who attended top magnet high schools such as Masterman where I graduated.

[Radio5]

Originally Posted by cardeza

Its not just that, there is population decline in stable neighborhoods such as mine on the northern city border because its not a place where families are necessarily choosing to live if they have the means to live in Delaware or move down south. So no, Philly is not always better off if people depopulate "lesser" areas. Many middle class minority areas are somewhere between stagnation and decline in terms of population because they are not competitive with other areas based on housing stock, schools and safety. If Philadelphia could stop the outmigration of working and middle class blacks it would be able to gain population overall. I've said it before and it seems at least one other person here gets it. We are not loosing the poorest folks, we are losing a lot of educated and middle class black residents. Also a lot of people who attend college who are from Philadelphia do not come back here or come back short term before moving elsewhere. I know tons of people like this who attended top magnet high schools such as Masterman where I graduated.

This is exactly what's happening. If you're that poor, you can't move, and have nowhere to go. But I really think as more city amenities come online, like Penn's Landing, FDR park, Delaware river developments, people will have more reasons to stay or move here. That, and with all the life science businesses, Bellweather district jobs, PhilaPort expansion, Philly will be in a good place by 2028.

[TonyTone]

Originally Posted by cardeza

Its not just that, there is population decline in stable neighborhoods such as mine on the northern city border because its not a place where families are necessarily choosing to live if they have the means to live in Delaware or move down south. So no, Philly is not always better off if people depopulate "lesser" areas. Many middle class minority areas are somewhere between stagnation and decline in terms of population because they are not competitive with other areas based on housing stock, schools and safety. If Philadelphia could stop the outmigration of working and middle class blacks it would be able to gain population overall. I've said it before and it seems at least one other person here gets it. We are not loosing the poorest folks, we are losing a lot of educated and middle class black residents. Also a lot of people who attend college who are from Philadelphia do not come back here or come back short term before moving elsewhere. I know tons of people like this who attended top magnet high schools such as Masterman where I graduated.

And to add to this further, Like Card said we can look at the solid stable areas like The Oak Lanes, Mt Airy, Cobbs Creek, and while they may not have major crime issues like other less prosperous areas in the city that are majority minority like those areas they are not growing.

My Fathers side of the family is from West Oaklane been there since the 60's one of the first black families in the area when it was in "transition" since then majority of the homes are still owned by those original black families and the grandparents are getting old, homes are being absorbed by some younger families, but many I have noticed are being boarded up or sold off as the families die.

The Neighbor directly next to my Grandmother sold their house and moved to Atlanta into a nice Mc Mansion, they were a young black family.

I currently live in the Cusp of North & NE, If I had a golden ticket to choose anywhere in the city I would choose Fairmount, the neighborhood were 3rd & Brown lives, NoLib, Fishtown, Old city, Manayunk, Spruce Hill, GHO, Port Richmond.

Why? because those areas would provide the environment, amenities, schools, stores & etc that I would want my family to live and grow in.

Cities evolve and renew, but thinking that cleaning out old areas, and putting new people in them will fix poverty or population losses, it will not

[UrbanRevival]

Originally Posted by TonyTone

The Neighbor directly next to my Grandmother sold their house and moved to Atlanta into a nice Mc Mansion, they were a young black family.

...

Cities evolve and renew, but thinking that cleaning out old areas, and putting new people in them will fix poverty or population losses, it will not

I definitely understand where you're coming from. But to your point, I think it's also important to acknowledge that there appears to be a fundamental preference shift going on, too, amongst a lot of historically urban and working-class AAs specifically, in that many are simply done with city living generally and look at Sun Belt suburbs as their Shangri-La.

It's not like Philly is losing these kinds of families to other "more functional" urban cities. It's the kind of folks who have long glorified suburban living and have a chance to finally make it a reality for themselves.

In other words, no matter how much better Philly could reasonably improve conditions in working-class neighborhoods with the best possible resources and optimistic timing, I don't think these these families would be persuaded to stay: they have long been dead-set on escaping urban life and there's essentially nothing that could prevent that out-migration.

But as you say, cities are always in flux. Some will always want in and some will always want out no matter what is going on. And it will be very interesting to see how the demographic shift continues.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by TonyTone

I know most of us on this forum are Pro Build, but I think a lot of us forget about the other neighborhoods in the city where people live.

Kensington, Poplar, Kingsessing, The Bottom, North Central, Hunting Park, Mill Creek, Frankford, Juanita, Germantown, Fairhill, Strawberry Mansion, and other neighborhoods are not experiencing the growth of the neighborhoods that are experiencing growth, they are hollowing out due to disinvestment.

I don't disagree with you but to be fair there is a lot of development in this list of neighborhoods.

Kensington (even the bad parts), Poplar, Kingsessing and Germantown in particular are experiencing a bunch of new development.

I mean Germantown is blazing almost uniformly, particularly West Germantown in almost every pocket and East Germantown west of Chelten. The Inquirer recently wrote an article about how Lingelbach in Germantown had changed its curriculum and is quickly improving its test scores. It has become something of a school of choice within Germantown. I mentioned this a while back after noticing subtle differences in its data and was just waiting for it to become more of a story.

Kensington goes without saying. The Eastern portion of Poplar at this point is indistinguishable from Northern Liberties. The southern portion is experiencing overflow from Callowhill. Kingsessing is stabalized closer to Center City.

At the end of the day, to the extent that blacks are leaving the city I'd say a lot of it is that when things start to improve in their neighborhoods (for whatever reason), they're so jaded or inclined to not see the positives that the minute there is some real value tied up in their homes they bolt. Sometimes it really does take an outsider or a new set of eyes to see the good in a place.

Even this is an example of what I'm talking about. I would never in a million years put Kensington or Germantown on a list of declining neighborhoods. It's quite the opposite, in fact.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by Radio5

This is exactly what's happening. If you're that poor, you can't move, and have nowhere to go. But I really think as more city amenities come online, like Penn's Landing, FDR park, Delaware river developments, people will have more reasons to stay or move here. That, and with all the life science businesses, Bellweather district jobs, PhilaPort expansion, Philly will be in a good place by 2028.

Here is the other thing. in some areas where burbs are cheaper than the city, gentrification pushes poorer people (and commensurate inner city issues) to the lower end burbs. That is generally not the case in Philly so a lot of the people displaced by rising costs and development from North or West Philly just move to other parts of Philly like Oxford Circle, Logan, Fern Rock, WOL, etc. This is one reason why those areas are more heavily renter based and have issues they barely dealt with 30 years ago. So while this is supposedly a "win" for the improving areas closer to the core, they are still a Philly issue- it's just areas that used to be relatively stable have absorbed a lot of the people and issues from the inner city.

[cardeza]

Originally Posted by UrbanRevival

I definitely understand where you're coming from. But to your point, I think it's also important to acknowledge that there appears to be a fundamental preference shift going on, too, amongst a lot of historically urban and working-class AAs specifically, in that many are simply done with city living generally and look at Sun Belt suburbs as their Shangri-La.

It's not like Philly is losing these kinds of families to other "more functional" urban cities. It's the kind of folks who have long glorified suburban living and have a chance to finally make it a reality for themselves.

In other words, no matter how much better Philly could reasonably improve conditions in working-class neighborhoods with the best possible resources and optimistic timing, I don't think these these families would be persuaded to stay: they have long been dead-set on escaping urban life and there's essentially nothing that could prevent that out-migration.

But as you say, cities are always in flux. Some will always want in and some will always want out no matter what is going on. And it will be very interesting to see how the demographic shift continues.

Totally disagree- while there are aspects of the South that Philly could never replicate, many would stay here if there was more safety, cleanliness and public school quality. The lack of a black business ecosystem is also a problemt, but not one that couldn't be fixed with a plan. And I would not say this is all about suburban living, many educated blacks who have no issue with urban living would still choose to be in DC, Atlanta, Charlotte or almost anywhere else save rust belt cities such as Detroit. Not everyone who moves is going to a huge single family home on half acre. The age of the housing stock, the lack of availability of newer homes/apts outside of a few neighborhoods, etc. is also part of the issue. I think its funny that people often talk about all the investments (bike lanes, dog parks, beer gardens, pedestrian friendly development) you need to double down on to make sure the right kind of people want to come to Philly and stay for a while but if we're talking about other groups its like "oh they would leave no matter what so there is no point in trying to compete for their business".

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by cardeza

Totally disagree- while there are aspects of the South that Philly could never replicate, many would stay here if there was more safety, cleanliness and public school quality. The lack of a black business ecosystem is also a problemt, but not one that couldn't be fixed with a plan. And I would not say this is all about suburban living, many educated blacks who have no issue with urban living would still choose to be in DC, Atlanta, Charlotte or almost anywhere else save rust belt cities such as Detroit. Not everyone who moves is going to a huge single family home on half acre. The age of the housing stock, the lack of availability of newer homes/apts outside of a few neighborhoods, etc. is also part of the issue. I think its funny that people often talk about all the investments (bike lanes, dog parks, beer gardens, pedestrian friendly development) you need to double down on to make sure the right kind of people want to come to Philly and stay for a while but if we're talking about other groups its like "oh they would leave no matter what so there is no point in trying to compete for their business".

I don't totally agree. The middle class black families leaving West Oak Lane for Atlanta aren't moving to Midtown Atlanta or Grant Park or Vinings (in the city of Atlanta). They're moving to Smyrna, Cumming, Conyers, and Mableton (in the sprawling suburbs). Maybe part of the issue is that Philly generally no longer sprawls way out to the far reaches of the region so that option doesn't exist here like it once did. You simply don't see McMansion development in our region like you did 20 or 30 years ago. The one exception might be the far flung areas of Gloucester, Salem, and Burlington Counties. And of course in far southern New Castle County (places like Bear and Middletown DE).

[PurpleWhiteOut]

Well one positive is Mayor Parker is a black woman from a middle neighborhood, has long campaigned on shoring up middle neighborhoods, and was largely politically supported by them. She knows first hand what these places need, and many representatives of these neighborhoods are in her ear. We'll see if her agenda will help restore confidence there

Also another point about moving, older folks often move south if they don't want to deal with the cold or upkeep related to snow and ice. Not everyone cares, but just a factor we obviously can't control

Also there are several suburbs that have flipped to majority black in the last decade or so, mostly in Delco near the city.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by cardeza

Not everyone who moves is going to a huge single family home on half acre. The age of the housing stock, the lack of availability of newer homes/apts outside of a few neighborhoods, etc. is also part of the issue.

And many parts are urban to the extreme with narrow roads, many blocks of rowhomes...it does take a certain type of person to want to/be able to live in that type of environment long-term.

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

You simply don't see McMansion development in our region like you did 20 or 30 years ago. The one exception might be the far flung areas of Gloucester, Salem, and Burlington Counties. And of course in far southern New Castle County (places like Bear and Middletown DE).

It's picking back up in Plymouth Meeting and parts of the surrounding area unfortunately and it's sad to see the reminder of how destructive the building is.

[yuryphilly]

I recently had an interesting observation while visiting Barcelona. Both Philly and Barcelona have a similar population, around 1.6 million people. Philly has a city budget twice the size of Barcelona (6 billion vs 3 billion), but Barcelona only occupies 39.2 sq miles, because it's limited geographically. Philly's area is 142.71 sq miles with the same population size and we have to maintain more pipes, roads, buildings, and so on.

Obviously, two cities are in a completely different geographic, social, economic, and political context, but it highlights that after Philly 500k residents last century, we have more infrastructure to maintain for less people.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by EastSideHBG

It's picking back up in Plymouth Meeting and parts of the surrounding area unfortunately and it's sad to see the reminder of how destructive the building is.

Where in Plymouth Meeting is there brand new widespread McMansion development?

[PHLtoNYC]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Where in Plymouth Meeting is there brand new widespread McMansion development?

There isn't.

But my guess is that EastSide is referring to this new community (unless there is another I'm not aware of)...
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Pl...3OGI?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.1136...8192?entry=ttu

However, these homes aren't mcmansions. The community consists of ~80 homes, nicely sized, but not overdone, nice aesthetic, and Plymouth Meeting hasn't seen much modern SFH construction in recent years (besides teardowns and a home here and there). Also, this community soldout in months, another sign of the demand / shortage of new housing in the burbs. One could argue the loss of "open space", but the land was privately owned and was just empty land, not really "destructive" to the area.
People gotta live somewhere...

[reparcsyks]

Originally Posted by yuryphilly

I recently had an interesting observation while visiting Barcelona. Both Philly and Barcelona have a similar population, around 1.6 million people. Philly has a city budget twice the size of Barcelona (6 billion vs 3 billion), but Barcelona only occupies 39.2 sq miles, because it's limited geographically. Philly's area is 142.71 sq miles with the same population size and we have to maintain more pipes, roads, buildings, and so on.

Obviously, two cities are in a completely different geographic, social, economic, and political context, but it highlights that after Philly 500k residents last century, we have more infrastructure to maintain for less people.

It's amazing how Barcelona feels like a city 20x the size of Philly simply because all of it is walkable, constantly bustling and overflowing with tourists. It's amazing what street life does for a city.