HomeDiagramsDatabaseMapsForum About
     

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions


Reply

 
Thread Tools Display Modes
     
     
  #781  
Old Posted Feb 2, 2023, 11:44 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by New Brisavoine View Post
What are you talking about? France's TFR was above 1.9 during 13 years (2004-2016), and Germany was above 1.5 only during 7 years (2015-2021). And France's TFR has been between 1.8 and 1.9 for 6 years now (2017-2022), whereas Germany's TFR is again below 1.5 in 2022.
You meant in the past. I see. But again it's not about France vs Germany, but about Germany. France declined from 1.9 to 1.8. As the US, as Britain, as Italy, as Japan, as pretty much everybody else. The same story everywhere.

Germany went on the opposite direction and as we're speaking, they have 6-7 million more people than it was forecasted only 10 years ago. That's the biggest novelty on demographics. France only followed the 2010's (downward) trend. Nothing to see here.

There were unpredictable things (Syria, Ukraine), but German government and society acted to improve TFR and specially to open the gates to immigrants. Results are there.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #782  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2023, 12:08 AM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
Germany went on the opposite direction and as we're speaking
Germany's TFR has declined from 1.59 in 2016 to 1.45 in 2022.
__________________
New Axa – New Brisavoine
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #783  
Old Posted Feb 3, 2023, 1:07 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
Brazilian 2022 Census, preliminary number: 207.8 million people

That’s almost 6 million below official estimates, which was expected, at least by me.

After being the world’s 5th most populated country for almost 30 years following the end of USSR, Brazil is now 7th, surpassed by both Pakistan and Nigeria.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
More from Brazilian 2022 Census (preview). Urban areas:

---------------------------- 2022 -------- 2010 -------- 2000
Code:
BRASIL ---------------- 207.750.291 - 190.747.731 - 169.799.170 --- 8,91% -- 12,34%
São Paulo -------------- 21.769.256 -- 19.520.758 -- 17.735.391 -- 11,52% -- 10,07%
Rio de Janeiro --------- 12.071.209 -- 11.769.605 -- 10.802.930 --- 2,56% --- 8,95%
Belo Horizonte ---------- 4.845.341 --- 4.563.078 --- 4.086.680 --- 6,19% -- 11,66%
Brasília ---------------- 3.708.201 --- 3.187.984 --- 2.507.587 -- 16,32% -- 27,13%
Porto Alegre ------------ 3.672.397 --- 3.616.039 --- 3.409.968 --- 1,56% --- 6,04%
Recife ------------------ 3.549.490 --- 3.513.174 --- 3.198.113 --- 1,03% --- 9,85%
Fortaleza --------------- 3.541.226 --- 3.291.204 --- 2.803.413 --- 7,60% -- 17,40%
Curitiba ---------------- 3.475.297 --- 2.993.678 --- 2.608.846 -- 16,09% -- 14,75%
Salvador ---------------- 3.361.923 --- 3.266.562 --- 2.857.776 --- 2,92% -- 14,30%
Campinas ---------------- 2.599.406 --- 2.257.504 --- 1.932.238 -- 15,15% -- 18,09%
Goiânia ----------------- 2.287.443 --- 1.980.649 --- 1.582.680 -- 15,49% -- 25,15%
Belém ------------------- 2.063.123 --- 2.025.276 --- 1.784.158 --- 1,87% -- 13,51%
Manaus ------------------ 2.054.731 --- 1.802.014 --- 1.405.835 -- 14,02% -- 28,18%
Vitória ----------------- 1.818.375 --- 1.565.393 --- 1.337.187 -- 16,16% -- 17,07%
Santos ------------------ 1.702.245 --- 1.556.718 --- 1.395.330 --- 9,35% -- 11,57%
São Luís ---------------- 1.508.450 --- 1.309.330 --- 1.070.688 -- 15,21% -- 22,29%
Natal ------------------- 1.263.314 --- 1.187.899 ----- 980.897 --- 6,35% -- 21,10%
Florianópolis ----------- 1.211.895 ----- 851.955 ----- 687.791 -- 42,25% -- 23,87%
João Pessoa ------------- 1.201.683 --- 1.013.215 ----- 853.926 -- 18,60% -- 18,65%
Maceió ------------------ 1.168.590 --- 1.088.456 ----- 931.563 --- 7,36% -- 16,84%
São José dos Campos ----- 1.073.540 ----- 925.887 ----- 806.734 -- 15,95% -- 14,77%
Teresina ---------------- 1.043.567 ----- 969.690 ----- 845.052 --- 7,62% -- 14,75%
Cuiabá ------------------ 1.009.955 ----- 803.694 ----- 698.644 -- 25,66% -- 15,04%
Campo Grande -------------- 942.140 ----- 786.797 ----- 663.621 -- 19,74% -- 18,56%
Sorocaba ------------------ 925.539 ----- 739.572 ----- 624.461 -- 25,15% -- 18,43%
Aracaju ------------------- 839.328 ----- 756.952 ----- 611.020 -- 10,88% -- 23,88%
Jundiaí ------------------- 832.737 ----- 633.273 ----- 529.990 -- 26,73% -- 19,49%
Londrina ------------------ 750.262 ----- 651.632 ----- 577.404 -- 15,14% -- 12,86%
Ribeirão Preto ------------ 748.067 ----- 642.343 ----- 535.652 -- 16,46% -- 19,92%
Itajaí-B. Camboriú -------- 739.237 ----- 478.984 ----- 345.830 -- 54,33% -- 38,50%
Uberlândia ---------------- 725.536 ----- 604.013 ----- 501.214 -- 20,12% -- 20,51%
Joinville ----------------- 663.441 ----- 540.098 ----- 453.249 -- 22,84% -- 19,16%
Feira de Santana ---------- 652.592 ----- 556.642 ----- 480.949 -- 17,24% -- 15,74%
Petrolina-Juazeiro -------- 632.551 ----- 491.927 ----- 393.105 -- 28,59% -- 25,14%
Maringá ------------------- 630.202 ----- 475.860 ----- 390.839 -- 32,43% -- 21,75%
São José do Rio Preto ----- 599.775 ----- 502.494 ----- 439.186 -- 19,36% -- 14,41%
Macapá -------------------- 593.443 ----- 499.466 ----- 363.747 -- 18,82% -- 37,31%
Caxias do Sul ------------- 577.947 ----- 499.199 ----- 415.727 -- 15,77% -- 20,08%
Juiz de Fora -------------- 557.777 ----- 516.247 ----- 456.796 --- 8,04% -- 13,01%
Taubaté-Pindamonhangaba --- 528.333 ----- 466.665 ----- 405.014 -- 13,21% -- 15,22%
Blumenau ------------------ 507.762 ----- 421.846 ----- 348.416 -- 20,37% -- 21,08%
Growth collapsed in the majority of Brazilian metro areas. São Paulo, on the other hand, hung on and it's about to reach the 22 million mark. Metro areas around it such as Campinas, Santos, São José dos Campos, Sorocaba and Jundiaí are also growing fast and São Paulo Macrometropolitan Area reached 35 million inh.
Bringing more of Brazilian 2022 Census. Aside the expected population slowdown, we had very unexpected shifts. Domestic migration, after two decades of receeding, took a big jump, completely changing very well established dynamics:

---------------------- 2022 -------- 2010 -------- 2000 -------- 1991
Code:
BRASIL ---- 207.750.291 - 190.747.731 - 169.799.170 - 146.825.475 - 8,91% - 12,34% - 15,65%

Norte -------- 17.834.762 - 15.864.454 - 12.900.704 - 10.030.556 - 12,42% - 22,97% - 28,61%
Nordeste ----- 55.389.382 - 53.081.950 - 47.741.711 - 42.497.540 -- 4,35% - 11,19% - 12,34%
Centro-Oeste - 16.492.326 - 14.058.094 - 11.636.728 -- 9.427.601 - 17,32% - 20,81% - 23,43%
Sudeste ------ 87.348.223 - 80.364.410 - 72.412.411 - 62.740.401 -- 8,69% - 10,98% - 15,42%
Sul ---------- 30.685.598 - 27.386.891 - 25.107.616 - 22.129.377 - 12,04% -- 9,08% - 13,46%
- Making generalizations, basically North and Northeast are much poorer than national average and the other three much wealthier.

- North has always attracted migrants, specially from Northeast and has always had a much higher TFR than the rest of the country. They're clearly sending migrants now as the growth collapsed;

- Northeast supplied the Southeast, Centre-West and North with migrants since ever. São Paulo metro area, for instance, is like 40% Northeasterners (and descendants) that started to arrived in the 1960's, replacing the European immigration that was over. Those waves have stopped on the 1980's, but it seems it picked up again. Growth in Northeast collapsed as consequence;

- Centre-West is Brazilian farming frontier, responsible to make Brazil to overtake the US as world's farming biggest exporter. Still sparsely populated and remains a migrant magnet;

- Southeast is Brazilian industrial heart, 55% of Brazilian GDP and where the three largest metro areas are located. São Paulo keeps shining but Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais growth collapsed. Brazil has been under desindustrialization for the past 20 years and that doesn't help it.

- South was the biggest surprise. White, rich, aged, rural and has been always an emigration area (Southern farmers opened the Central-West from the 1980's). Now it seems the region has finally managed to become attractive to migrants and we're seen that on numbers, growing faster than the previous census period, something completely unexpected.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #784  
Old Posted Feb 9, 2023, 12:37 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Netherlands

We've discussed the 1 million bump on Germany's population due Ukrainian refugees moving there.

Netherlands just released their 2023 Estimate and it reached 17,815,508 people. A 225k increase over 2022 while they were averaging 100k/year on the past 5 years. According to UN data and Dutch authorities, there are 85,210 Ukrainian refugees living in the country.

Their density is now at 530 inh./km².
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #785  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 3:14 AM
muppet's Avatar
muppet muppet is offline
if I sang out of tune
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: London
Posts: 6,185
Quote:
Originally Posted by mousquet View Post
On the other hand, why do we get mostly men from Arab/ mostly Muslim countries like Syria?
There's something weird or even bad with that in our opinion here.
Call me sexist, I don't care. Women and their kids are not the same as hords of single men with no women.
They are obviously not the same kind of refugees.
Refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan (and now Lebanon) into Europe are the middle and upper classes who have enough liquidity to afford the average $4K-20K cash per head, to pay the
snakeheads for the boat trips and desert crossings. It's a crippling brain drain to the source countries (and quite the demographic and economic moneymaker for the hosts, hence why they're
so eager to accept -they receive an educated able-bodied adult for the workforce -often in dwindling societies -without having had to pay a cent for their upbringing or education). It's not for
nothing you'll talk to many who held good positions, were uni students or ran successful family businesses before, despite now forming the new country's working class. The vast majority of
refugees who can't afford the trip flee to their neighbours in the Middle East, who are by far the world's biggest refugee hosts -Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even Iraq etc. some of
whom are now majority refugee in population.

The men and adult sons go first due to the obvious hazards, those desperate enough to go as one family risk everything (by 2021 18,000 children alone had gone missing on the trails in Europe,
that is full of danger and targeted by organised crime, 25,000 bodies have been recovered in sea crossings/ beaches, well over 10,000 on land routes and detention centres). Many send their
husbands or sons who are more physically fit to cross deserts and entire countries, and withstand better the snows, heat, starvation/ dehydration and swimming should the craft capsize or lose
power. Once they reach their destination, and given a lot of luck and money (citizenship, job etc), they can send for their families after, but of course in reality that's going to take years if not
decades, if not at all.


Last edited by muppet; Feb 10, 2023 at 4:05 AM.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #786  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 4:05 AM
muppet's Avatar
muppet muppet is offline
if I sang out of tune
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: London
Posts: 6,185
I took this pic back in the day, in Vienna's Hauptbahnhof, when most European destinations had such walls and every main station had been converted into an ad hoc refugee village:



Of the 13 million displaced Syrians, 1 million are in Europe, the rest in the Middle East.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #787  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 11:34 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by muppet View Post
Refugees from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan (and now Lebanon) into Europe are the middle and upper classes who have enough liquidity to afford the average $4K-20K cash per head, to pay the
snakeheads for the boat trips and desert crossings. It's a crippling brain drain to the source countries (and quite the demographic and economic moneymaker for the hosts, hence why they're
so eager to accept -they receive an educated able-bodied adult for the workforce -often in dwindling societies -without having had to pay a cent for their upbringing or education). It's not for
nothing you'll talk to many who held good positions, were uni students or ran successful family businesses before, despite now forming the new country's working class. The vast majority of
refugees who can't afford the trip flee to their neighbours in the Middle East, who are by far the world's biggest refugee hosts -Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, even Iraq etc. some of
whom are now majority refugee in population.

The men and adult sons go first due to the obvious hazards, those desperate enough to go as one family risk everything (by 2021 18,000 children alone had gone missing on the trails in Europe,
that is full of danger and targeted by organised crime, 25,000 bodies have been recovered in sea crossings/ beaches, well over 10,000 on land routes and detention centres). Many send their
husbands or sons who are more physically fit to cross deserts and entire countries, and withstand better the snows, heat, starvation/ dehydration and swimming should the craft capsize or lose
power. Once they reach their destination, and given a lot of luck and money (citizenship, job etc), they can send for their families after, but of course in reality that's going to take years if not
decades, if not at all.
Very interesting (and sad) account, muppet.

It's depressing how crude racism is so widespread to the point of people creating new narratives only to hold tight to their racism. It not only exists, but it's cherished.

But we have the brightside: the Western Europe establishment, specially in Germany, took full advantage of it. Aside help all those people trapped on the war, giving them an opportunity to restart, will take full advantage of the brain drain.

Syrian-Lebanese are the most successful immigrants pretty much everywhere.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #788  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 11:58 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Argentina 2022 Census: 46,044,703

1947: 15,893,811
1960: 20,013,793 --- 25.9%
1970: 23,364,431 --- 16.7%
1980: 27,947,446 --- 19.6%
1991: 32,615,528 --- 16.7%
2001: 36,260,130 --- 11.2%
2010: 40,117,096 --- 10.6%
2022: 46,044,703 --- 14.8%

Buenos Aires metro area reached 16.5 million people, 2nd largest in South America, 5th on Americas. With a 12.5% over the last census, is the fastest growing of those 5, followed by São Paulo with 12% and 23.2 million, Mexico City 9% and 22.7 million, New York 6% and also 22.7 million and Los Angeles 4% (18.6 million). Tracking Los Angeles.

Argentina is one of the most interesting demographic cases anywhere. As they were a developed and urbanized country for most of the 20th century, they TFR were already at US and European levels in the 1960's, their baby boom era. However, unlike happened everywhere, TFR stopped falling, were kept quite above the replacement level and it's higher than virtually all countries in South America, countries that had very high TFRs, 4-6 children till the late 1970's.

As result we see this very interesting pattern, where Argentina grows the same for the past 60 years.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #789  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 1:29 PM
Crawford Crawford is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Brooklyn, NYC/Polanco, DF
Posts: 30,757
Doesn't Argentina get a lot of immigration from Paraguay, Bolivia and the like? Could be poorer indigenous newcomers with high birthrates.

Argentina is one of the few countries on earth that has (arguably) gotten poorer over the last 100 years, so maybe birth rates stayed stable bc the benefits of late capitalism prosperity didn't filter down to lower household sizes? Just guessing.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #790  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 2:00 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Doesn't Argentina get a lot of immigration from Paraguay, Bolivia and the like? Could be poorer indigenous newcomers with high birthrates.
They do but not enough to have such strong impact on their TFR. The US and Western Europe, for example, have had much higher levels of immigration.

In the late 1960's, Argentina TFR was at 2.8. In the mid-2010's, 2.4. Pretty much the same story in Uruguay, which is more similar to Argentina than NZ to Australia and that doesn't get any immigration.

For comparison, the US had fallen from 2.5 to 1.8; Germany from 2.5 to 1.4 and Brazil from 6.2 (!!!) to 1.8.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Argentina is one of the few countries on earth that has (arguably) gotten poorer over the last 100 years, so maybe birth rates stayed stable bc the benefits of late capitalism prosperity didn't filter down to lower household sizes? Just guessing.
Yes, they are one of the biggest relative fall. Their GDP per capita was higher than Spain up to 1980, a time Spain had already taken the most from their economic miracle (1959-1974).

But I don't think that's enough to explain as Argentina still has a rather good standard of living, similar to Southern Brazil, São Paulo, and it's incredibly urbanized (and urban living always lead to decrease TFR). Yet, their TFR is way higher than those regions in Brazil (2.4 vs 1.6 on the mid-2010's). It's something very specific, but as I don't know much about Argentina, I can't tell.

Argentina, however, seemed to be affected by the worldwide post mid-2010's TFR fall. Births were at 770k in 2015 and for the first time in their history, births started to fall after that and it was quite big.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #791  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 4:07 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 9,885
Anecdotal, but I know a fairly large number of middle class millennial Argentinians and most of them have kids. Producing kids seems much more common among middle class millennials there than in the U.S.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #792  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 4:47 PM
3rd&Brown 3rd&Brown is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 2,370
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
Argentina 2022 Census: 46,044,703

1947: 15,893,811
1960: 20,013,793 --- 25.9%
1970: 23,364,431 --- 16.7%
1980: 27,947,446 --- 19.6%
1991: 32,615,528 --- 16.7%
2001: 36,260,130 --- 11.2%
2010: 40,117,096 --- 10.6%
2022: 46,044,703 --- 14.8%

Buenos Aires metro area reached 16.5 million people, 2nd largest in South America, 5th on Americas. With a 12.5% over the last census, is the fastest growing of those 5, followed by São Paulo with 12% and 23.2 million, Mexico City 9% and 22.7 million, New York 6% and also 22.7 million and Los Angeles 4% (18.6 million). Tracking Los Angeles.

Argentina is one of the most interesting demographic cases anywhere. As they were a developed and urbanized country for most of the 20th century, they TFR were already at US and European levels in the 1960's, their baby boom era. However, unlike happened everywhere, TFR stopped falling, were kept quite above the replacement level and it's higher than virtually all countries in South America, countries that had very high TFRs, 4-6 children till the late 1970's.

As result we see this very interesting pattern, where Argentina grows the same for the past 60 years.
Honestly. This surprises me. The economy has been terrible in Argentina for over 20 years now. People are arguably far worse off than they were in the 1990s. I lives in BsAs for 4 months in 2011. I loved it and still have many friends there but things have been deteriorating for decades. I've never experienced inflation in the western world in the way that I saw it in Argentina. (You literally notice prices changing on a weekly basis).

I guess people adapt.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #793  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 5:38 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Anecdotal, but I know a fairly large number of middle class millennial Argentinians and most of them have kids. Producing kids seems much more common among middle class millennials there than in the U.S.
It’s a very interesting divergence. Argentinian society is quite similar to Spanish and Italian, and while they TFR crashed, somehow Argentinians managed to keep having a good number of children. And on top of it, they have all the economic hardships since ever.


Quote:
Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown View Post
Honestly. This surprises me. The economy has been terrible in Argentina for over 20 years now. People are arguably far worse off than they were in the 1990s. I lives in BsAs for 4 months in 2011. I loved it and still have many friends there but things have been deteriorating for decades. I've never experienced inflation in the western world in the way that I saw it in Argentina. (You literally notice prices changing on a weekly basis).

I guess people adapt.
Their economy is a mess. But it’s so dollarized at this point that I imagine they can handle their high inflation.

Brazil managed to create a very strong currency and completely tamed inflation 30 years ago, but Argentinians keep struggling, defaults after defaults.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #794  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 6:00 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 9,885
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
It’s a very interesting divergence. Argentinian society is quite similar to Spanish and Italian, and while they TFR crashed, somehow Argentinians managed to keep having a good number of children. And on top of it, they have all the economic hardships since ever.
Spain and Italy skew much older than Argentina, but it also appears that Spain and Italy have had pretty slow population growth since at least WW2. Argentina's population growth looks more similar to the U.S. post WW2. Argentina didn't start posting sub-1% annual growth until around 2015, per macrotrends. The U.S. didn't start posting sub-1% annual growth until around 2000. Italy has not posted annual growth above 1% since 1950, and Spain has only done so in a handful of years.

Argentina: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...ina/population
Italy: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...aly/population
Spain: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...ain/population
US: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...tes/population
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #795  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 6:39 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Spain and Italy skew much older than Argentina, but it also appears that Spain and Italy have had pretty slow population growth since at least WW2. Argentina's population growth looks more similar to the U.S. post WW2. Argentina didn't start posting sub-1% annual growth until around 2015, per macrotrends. The U.S. didn't start posting sub-1% annual growth until around 2000. Italy has not posted annual growth above 1% since 1950, and Spain has only done so in a handful of years.

Argentina: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...ina/population
Italy: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...aly/population
Spain: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...ain/population
US: https://www.macrotrends.net/countrie...tes/population
Yes, Spain and Italy were still exporting immigrants even after WWII. Argentina was a younger settler society, like the US or Australia.

We can also think of Southern Brazil (the three states), 30 million people. Very White/European region, but much more rural than Argentina till the 1980's. In the 1960's, TFR in South was 5.9 and Argentina 2.8. In the 2010's, Argentina barely moved to 2.4 while on South collapsed to 1.65. Urbanization did nothing to Argentina while in South (and Brazil as a whole) it made TFR to allign with the ones of Europe and the US.

Another thing: Southern Brazil is much more religious than Argentina. Only 4% declared to have no religion in the 2010 Census. In Argentina this number is being between 20%-30% for a very long time. It's a much more secular society.

And a good counter-example is Québec. One of the most well-known cases of very strong natural growth since its inception and all the sudden in the late 1960's, it collapsed. Argentina didn't.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #796  
Old Posted Feb 10, 2023, 10:53 PM
mhays mhays is offline
Never Dell
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Posts: 19,802
Based on the big swings in religious surveys recently, I suspect a large percentage of any big drop is one thing: Honesty.

It's easier to be honest if you don't think you're unusual.
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #797  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2023, 12:01 AM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays View Post
Based on the big swings in religious surveys recently, I suspect a large percentage of any big drop is one thing: Honesty.

It's easier to be honest if you don't think you're unusual.
In both Brazil and Argentina the numbers are actually quite stable. Non-religious/atheists people in Brazil is around 8% and it's been growing continuously but in a very slow pace. In Argentina, it's about three times higher but that's been the case for decades.

Despite being neighbours, they are very different cultures.
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #798  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2023, 7:17 PM
New Brisavoine New Brisavoine is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,121
Quote:
Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
Buenos Aires metro area reached 16.5 million people, 2nd largest in South America, 5th on Americas. With a 12.5% over the last census, is the fastest growing of those 5, followed by São Paulo with 12% and 23.2 million, Mexico City 9% and 22.7 million, New York 6% and also 22.7 million and Los Angeles 4% (18.6 million). Tracking Los Angeles.
Actually the figures are the following, as per the unified definition of metro areas used by OCDE, Eurostat, etc.

Population in 2021:
- São Paulo: 21.58 million
- Mexico City: 20.54 million (in 2020)
- New York: 20.45 million
- LA: 17.65 million
- Rio de Janeiro: 12.21 million
- Chicago: 9.51 million
- Bogota: 9.25 million
- Washington-Baltimore: 9.24 million
- Santiago de Chile: 8.04 million
- Dallas-Fort Worth: 8.01 million


We don't have data for Buenos Aires unfortunately, because Argentina is not part of OECD.
__________________
New Axa – New Brisavoine
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #799  
Old Posted Feb 20, 2023, 1:43 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
On post #498, I brought North America. Added Brazil (#681), and now Argentina (2010-2022) we've discussed above:

---------------- 2020/2021 ------- 2010/2011 ------- 2000/2001
Code:
CANADA ------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 ---- 30,007,094 --- 10.5% --- 11.6%

UNITED STATES ----- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 --- 281,421,906 ---- 7.3% ---- 9.7%

MEXICO ------------ 126,014,024 --- 112,336,538 ---- 97,483,412 --- 12.2% --- 15.2%

BRAZIL ------------ 207,750,291 --- 190,747,731 --- 169,799,170 ---- 8.9% --- 12.3%

ARGENTINA ---------- 46,044,703 ---- 40,117,096 ---- 36,260,130 --- 14.8% --- 10.6%

---------------------------- 2020/2021 ------- 2010/2011 ------- 2000/2001
Code:
São Paulo --------- 23.283.685 --- 20.755.765 --- 18.780.007 ---- 12,18% ---- 10,52%

Mexico City ------- 22.727.239 --- 20.834.850 --- 18.941.600 ----- 9,10% ---- 10,00%

New York ---------- 22.692.839 --- 21.358.372 --- 20.675.403 ----- 6,25% ----- 3,30%

Los Angeles ------- 18.644.680 --- 17.877.006 --- 16.373.645 ----- 4,29% ----- 9,18%

Buenos Aires ------ 16.502.344 --- 14.839.026 --- 13.174.170 ---- 11,21% ---- 12,64%

Rio de Janeiro ---- 12.118.222 --- 11.825.040 --- 10.853.681 ----- 2,48% ----- 8,95%

Chicago ------------ 9.618.502 ---- 9.461.105 ---- 9.098.314 ----- 1,66% ----- 3,99%

San Francisco ------ 8.036.501 ---- 7.413.121 ---- 7.039.362 ----- 8,41% ----- 5,31%

Dallas ------------- 7.637.387 ---- 6.366.542 ---- 5.156.217 ---- 19,96% ---- 23,47%

Toronto ------------ 7.568.308 ---- 6.801.391 ---- 5.758.940 ---- 11,30% ---- 18,10%

Houston ------------ 7.122.240 ---- 5.920.416 ---- 4.693.161 ---- 20,30% ---- 26,15%

Philadelphia ------- 6.245.051 ---- 5.965.353 ---- 5.687.147 ----- 4,69% ----- 4,89%

Miami -------------- 6.138.333 ---- 5.564.635 ---- 5.007.564 ---- 10,31% ---- 11,12%

Washington --------- 6.105.431 ---- 5.388.326 ---- 4.635.194 ---- 13,31% ---- 16,25%

Boston ------------- 6.095.791 ---- 5.628.532 ---- 5.410.915 ----- 8,30% ----- 4,02%

Atlanta ------------ 6.089.815 ---- 5.286.728 ---- 4.263.438 ---- 15,19% ---- 24,00%

Monterrey ---------- 5.341.177 ---- 4.226.031 ---- 3.426.352 ---- 26,40% ---- 23,30%

Detroit ------------ 5.325.319 ---- 5.218.852 ---- 5.357.538 ----- 2,04% ---- -2,59%

Guadalajara -------- 5.268.642 ---- 4.521.755 ---- 3.772.833 ---- 16,50% ---- 19,90%

Belo Horizonte ----- 5.184.725 ---- 4.823.651 ---- 4.302.857 ----- 7,49% ---- 12,10%

Seattle ------------ 4.871.272 ---- 4.199.312 ---- 3.707.144 ---- 16,00% ---- 13,28%

Phoenix ------------ 4.845.832 ---- 4.192.887 ---- 3.251.876 ---- 15,57% ---- 28,94%

Montreal ----------- 4.291.732 ---- 3.824.221 ---- 3.426.350 ---- 12,20% ---- 11,60%

Brasília ----------- 4.220.894 ---- 3.622.571 ---- 2.866.339 ---- 16,52% ---- 26,38%

Porto Alegre ------- 3.989.983 ---- 3.918.362 ---- 3.675.026 ----- 1,83% ----- 6,62%

Recife ------------- 3.947.723 ---- 3.884.282 ---- 3.511.414 ----- 1,63% ---- 10,62%

Fortaleza ---------- 3.845.837 ---- 3.530.710 ---- 2.980.933 ----- 8,93% ---- 18,44%

Puebla ------------- 3.769.838 ---- 3.228.357 ---- 2.678.396 ---- 16,80% ---- 20,50%

Salvador ----------- 3.732.635 ---- 3.637.361 ---- 3.189.628 ----- 2,62% ---- 14,04%

Minneapolis -------- 3.635.128 ---- 3.279.833 ---- 2.968.806 ---- 10,83% ---- 10,48%

Denver ------------- 3.623.560 ---- 3.090.874 ---- 2.610.343 ---- 17,23% ---- 18,41%

Curitiba ----------- 3.576.667 ---- 3.071.165 ---- 2.674.102 ---- 16,46% ---- 14,85%

San Diego ---------- 3.298.634 ---- 3.095.313 ---- 2.813.833 ----- 6,57% ---- 10,00%

Tampa -------------- 3.175.275 ---- 2.783.243 ---- 2.395.998 ---- 14,09% ---- 16,16%

Campinas ----------- 3.139.111 ---- 2.690.791 ---- 2.252.715 ---- 16,66% ---- 19,45%

Vancouver ---------- 2.838.551 ---- 2.483.519 ---- 2.134.335 ---- 14,30% ---- 16,40%

Baltimore ---------- 2.794.636 ---- 2.662.691 ---- 2.512.431 ----- 4,96% ----- 5,98%

Cleveland ---------- 2.790.470 ---- 2.780.440 ---- 2.843.103 ----- 0,36% ---- -2,20%

St. Louis ---------- 2.754.124 ---- 2.717.079 ---- 2.648.607 ----- 1,36% ----- 2,59%
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
  #800  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2023, 8:22 PM
Yuri's Avatar
Yuri Yuri is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 4,523
South Korea 2022 - Vital Stats

Births: 249,031
Deaths: 372,826

For the 5 times in a row South Korea, reached the lowest TFR ever recorded for a country: 0.78 (!!!).
__________________
London - São Paulo - Rio de Janeiro - Londrina - Frankfurt
Reply With Quote
     
     
This discussion thread continues

Use the page links to the lower-right to go to the next page for additional posts
 
 
Reply

Go Back   SkyscraperPage Forum > Discussion Forums > City Discussions
Forum Jump



Forum Jump


All times are GMT. The time now is 5:11 AM.

     
SkyscraperPage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.