Dallas, America's largest metro by 2100?

Dariusb · #1 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 7:10 AM**

https://dallas.culturemap.com/news/c...00-movebuddha/

I don't think this would ever happen. With that many people I'm sure the amount of water would be a very serious as well as serious overcrowding.

bobdreamz · #2 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 8:59 AM**

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people.

Some of these projections are wild as Hell !

mousquet · #3 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 11:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobdreamz

These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people.

Some of these projections are wild as Hell !

That's likely to be erroneous, for based on today's trend. Like some people would be leaving California because of their high cost of living.

Demographers' expectations when it comes to coming decades are certainly not accurate.
See what they predicted in the 1980s and 90s about the 2020s.
Their projections surely were wild and overdone back then.
They are proven very inaccurate today.

Idk what climate conditions will be like in Texas in 2100, but I'd rather expect a huge migration to the north long before that date, as A/C won't be sufficient to counterbalance extreme heatwaves. Demographers may be wrong, climatologists are probably right.

I can already see the Midwest and Canada rubbing their hands, until they realize what real mass migration really means.

Crawford · #4 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 1:16 PM**

34 million in Dallas. LOL. So basically the Tokyo region. That's a crapload of McMansions.

Given the Metroplex extreme northward sprawl orientation, I guess Dallas would extend past OKC at that point?

And the immigration gateways with good weather would shrink the fastest? NY would shrink by millions and LA would shrink by nearly 1/3? Meanwhile global warming made all the hot cities 10-15 F hotter year-round? And Phoenix has a water emergency now, but will be 4x bigger? Alrighty, then.

Quixote · #5 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 1:28 PM**

I can’t decide which is more far-fetched: DFW at 34 million or Austantonio at 22.3 million.

Steely Dan · #6 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 1:31 PM**

Talk about a half baked "report".

As cities grow larger, their growth rates always start levelling off at some point.

ChiSoxRox · #7 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 1:31 PM**

Most likely 2 to 6 feet of sea level rise by 2100, with the majority of that range locked in due to feed back loops from already emitted carbon.

The ocean is coming.

-----

But any projections more than 15 or 20 years out is just someone having fun with a formula in Excel.

SnowFire · #8 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 1:35 PM**

Bahahahaha. Should add that site right to my block list.

bigstick · #9 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 2:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bobdreamz

According to the report, the top 10 largest metros and their populations by 2100 will be:

No. 1 – Dallas-Fort Worth (33,907,275)
No. 2 – Houston (31,384,122)
No. 3 – Austin (22,293,980)
No. 4 – Phoenix (22,271,212)
No. 5 – New York City (20,810,467)
No. 6 – Atlanta (18,370,497)
No. 7 – Los Angeles (15,502,798)
No. 8 – Washington-Arlington, D.C.-Virginia (14,972,830)
No. 9 – Orlando (14,172,727)
No. 10 – Miami (13,779,843)
These projections were calculated using census data from 2010 and 2020, using annual compound and 10-year population growth rates for U.S. metro areas with over 250,000 people.

Some of these projections are wild as Hell !

Most of these are laughable. Especially Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and Austin. Miami will probably be underwater.

LA21st · #10 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 2:15 PM**

So NYC and LA will barely grow in 75 years. Ok.....

iheartthed · #11 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 3:59 PM**

Those calculations are waaaaay off. Based on the 2010 - 2020 growth rates, NY metro would have about 33.5 million in 2100 and Dallas would be at 32.7 million. I'd bet on NY reaching that number but I wouldn't bet on Dallas pulling that off lol.

JManc · #12 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by bigstick

Most of these are laughable. Especially Phoenix, Houston, Dallas, and Austin. Miami will probably be underwater.

Phoenix, Dallas and Austin are hundreds of miles inland. I can see an argument for Miami and parts of Houston.

BnaBreaker · #13 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:13 PM**

So at that point the metroplex would be, what, the size of Iowa?

MAC123 · #14 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:21 PM**

Houston and Dallas both at 30 million, lol they'd be one city with that much sprawl

SnowFire · #15 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Phoenix, Dallas and Austin are hundreds of miles inland. I can see an argument for Miami and parts of Houston.

Problem is heat and water. Phoenix is already having water problems, and texas is melting nicely.

MAC123 · #16 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:23 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Phoenix, Dallas and Austin are hundreds of miles inland. I can see an argument for Miami and parts of Houston.

I believe he was only referring to Miami with the underwater comment. He was just saying the other predictions were laughable.

JManc · #17 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:26 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAC123

I believe he was only referring to Miami with the underwater comment. He was just saying the other predictions were laughable.

That makes sense.

DCReid · #18 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:37 PM**

Totally stupid report. Most likely Texas style bragging. Any reasonably intelligent person would know that you cannot project future growth based on past 10 years period. A most extreme (and ridiculous) projection would have been to say that the city of Las Vegas, which grew 85% between 1990 and 2000 per Wiki, would continue growing at that rate, which it did not. Or the Atlanta metro, which grew 39% from 1990 to 2000, would continue growing at that rate, which it has not.

mrnyc · #19 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MAC123

I believe he was only referring to Miami with the underwater comment. He was just saying the other predictions were laughable.

when miami is under water nyc will be too.

as for texas …

iheartthed · #20 Posted **Jun 24, 2023, 5:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrnyc

when miami is under water nyc will be too.

as for texas …

Nah, Miami will be underwater well before NYC lol.