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  #141  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 4:53 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post

Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo are solidly rebounding though.
I'm not sure I would call it 'solidly' rebounding though. All 3 cities are attracting population, but not yet at the necessary levels to stem the losses from deaths and emigration. As a group, they are likely the oldest three metros in the US, in terms of % of residents 65+ and median age.
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  #142  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 5:24 PM
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I'm not sure I would call it 'solidly' rebounding though. All 3 cities are attracting population, but not yet at the necessary levels to stem the losses from deaths and emigration. As a group, they are likely the oldest three metros in the US, in terms of % of residents 65+ and median age.
That’s precisely the reason their recovery is even more impressive: their population is old, growing even older, and therefore deaths rates are much higher than elsewhere.

Growing from -3% to 0% with much worse demographics is an accomplishment. The US, for example, plunged from 10% to 6% over the same period. They are going against the flow. Kept this trend, they are heading to converge to the national average.
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  #143  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 5:25 PM
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The Midwest will likely never fully rebound from its industrial glory days. But modest growth can and will happen in many of the larger Midwestern cities as people move out of the more expensive cities and also through immigration. You should be thankful if you’re a Midwestern city that doesn’t lose population as there will be plenty of those as well.

Last edited by BG918; Jan 23, 2021 at 5:41 PM.
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  #144  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 5:49 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
That’s precisely the reason their recovery is even more impressive: their population is old, growing even older, and therefore deaths rates are much higher than elsewhere.

Growing from -3% to 0% with much worse demographics is an accomplishment. The US, for example, plunged from 10% to 6% over the same period. They are going against the flow. Kept this trend, they are heading to converge to the national average.
Oh yeah, I agree. There's no doubt the positive change in the 3 cities is evident. There's more construction occurring in their cores now than at any time since probably the 1980s skyscraper boom.

Their long-standing prominence in industries that have now moved to the forefront of the economy (tech/engineering, medicine, education/research) have allowed them to prosper, in relative terms.
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  #145  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 5:52 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
That’s precisely the reason their recovery is even more impressive: their population is old, growing even older, and therefore deaths rates are much higher than elsewhere.

Growing from -3% to 0% with much worse demographics is an accomplishment. The US, for example, plunged from 10% to 6% over the same period. They are going against the flow. Kept this trend, they are heading to converge to the national average.
My hometown is one that has consecutive population loss which has more or less stabilized recently. Not losing or gaining but flat. They area is still economically depressed and still doing worse than the rest of the country on average. Even raw population stats look ok on paper.
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  #146  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 5:53 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
The Midwest will likely never fully rebound from its industrial glory days. But modest growth can and will happen in many of the larger Midwestern cities as people move out of the more expensive cities and also through immigration.
the "new" non-rustbelt midwest 1M+ metros are actually doing alright:

Columbus: +11.6%
Indianapolis: +9.9%
Omaha: +9.7%*
Minneapolis: +9.2%
Grand Rapids: +8.4%
Kansas City: +7.4%

(*) Omaha's MSA is not quite 1M+ yet, but it's close enough with 950K, and with the way it's growing, it'll get there very soon. no other midwest MSAs are close to crossing the 1M threshold anytime soon.



but the "old" rustbelt/midwest 1M+ metros, well, that's another story:

Milwaukee: +1.2%
St Louis: +0.6%
Detroit: +0.5%
Chicago: 0.0%
Buffalo: -0.7%
Rochester: -0.9%
Cleveland: -1.4%
Pittsburgh: -1.6%



cincinnati & louisville kinda fall in the middle with decent, if not amazing, population growth:

Louisville: +5.2%
Cincinnati: +3.9%



all data above is 2010 - 2019 MSA growth per wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Jan 23, 2021 at 7:31 PM.
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  #147  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 5:58 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
Detroit might be a particular case with the 2008 crisis, but those +4% while the US as a whole is heading to a -4%, is promising nonetheless.

Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo are solidly rebounding though.
Uh no, Crawford is projecting as usual. Economic crisis doesn't guarantee later growth and all those other cities went through the same things if not identical to metro Detroit.

Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo rebounding? Those metros lost population, albeit by 1% instead of 3%. But still, this is "solid" opposed to metro Detroit's actual (extremely modest) growth? Pittsburgh city and Cuyahoga county also keep losing people and I might be wrong but I don't think I saw their numbers showing a trend in slowing the losses.

But I do agree they seem to be going in the right direction at least in regional population. And I don't think they're as vulnerable to the covid crisis which seems to be hitting coastal/transient/expensive metros a lot harder.
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  #148  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 6:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
the "new" non-rustbelt midwest 1M+ metros are actually doing alright:

Columbus: +11.5%
Indianapolis: +9.8%
Minneapolis: +9.2%
Grand Rapids: +8.4%
Kansas City: +7.4%



but the "old" midwest/rustbelt 1M+ metros, well, that's another story:

Milwaukee: +1.2%
Detroit: +0.5%
St Louis: +0.5%
Chicago: -0.03%
Buffalo: -0.6%
Rochester: -0.9%
Cleveland: -1.3%
Pittsburgh: -1.6%



cincinnati & louisville kinda fall in the middle with decent, if not amazing, population growth:

Louisville: +5.1%
Cincinnati: +3.9%
So it's weird that I would have zero interest in living in any of these cities:

Columbus: +11.5%
Indianapolis: +9.8%
Minneapolis: +9.2%
Grand Rapids: +8.4%
Kansas City: +7.4%


And yet I'm attracted to all of these cities in varying degrees:

Milwaukee: +1.2%
Detroit: +0.5%
St Louis: +0.5%
Chicago: -0.03%
Buffalo: -0.6%
Rochester: -0.9%
Cleveland: -1.3%
Pittsburgh: -1.6%
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  #149  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 6:07 PM
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I'm not sure why you're skeptical. Thirty years ago Atlanta was about the same size that Austin is now. Austin getting to 4.5M in 25 years would actually underperform against Sun Belt cities like Atlanta, Dallas, and Houston.
The period that Atlanta, Dallas and Houston boomed was different because the country as a whole was growing at a much faster rate---and we are already seeing Austin's growth rate fall well behind the historical highs of the other 3 during their peak growth.

Also, housing afforability during the boom of the other 3 was much greater-Austin is already more expensive then the other 3 and prices are climbing fast----so we'll see what happens. 4.5 Million by 2046 is a stretch imo, at 20% growth for the next 3 decades, Austin would have 3.5 million by 2046 and 20% for 3 straight decades at this point seems highly unlikely, but we'll see.
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  #150  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 6:18 PM
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Originally Posted by pj3000 View Post
So it's weird that I would have zero interest in living in any of these cities:

Columbus: +11.5%
Indianapolis: +9.8%
Minneapolis: +9.2%
Grand Rapids: +8.4%
Kansas City: +7.4%


And yet I'm attracted to all of these cities in varying degrees:

Milwaukee: +1.2%
Detroit: +0.5%
St Louis: +0.5%
Chicago: -0.03%
Buffalo: -0.6%
Rochester: -0.9%
Cleveland: -1.3%
Pittsburgh: -1.6%
Agreed. The only city in the first group that seems remotely interesting to me is Minneapolis.
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  #151  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 6:23 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Agreed. The only city in the first group that seems remotely interesting to me is Minneapolis.
I like Minneapolis, just would not want to live way up there.
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  #152  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 6:59 PM
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Originally Posted by dimondpark View Post
Very few MSAs are seeing increased growth rates over the previous decade. The country is slowing down.

In the 2000s, 12 MSAs recorded growth of 20%+, in the 2010s, only 3 saw 20%+ growth
Austin, Raleigh and Orlando, but they are all far short of their growth rates in the 2000s.

2000-2010 MSA(2010-2019) Growth Rate
+41.8% Las Vegas(+16.6%)
+41.8% Raleigh(+23.0%)
+37.3% Austin(+29.7%)
+32.1% Charlotte(+17.5%)
+29.8% Orlando(+22.2%)
+29.8% Riverside(+10.0%)
+28.9% Phoenix(+18.0%)
+26.1% Houston(+19.3%)
+25.2% San Antonio(+19.0%)
+24.0% Atlanta(+13.8%)
+23.4% Dallas(+18.9%)
+21.2% Nashville(+17.5%)
+19.8% Jacksonville(+15.9%)
+19.6% Sacramento(+9.9%)
+16.7% Denver(+16.6%)
+16.4% Fresno(+7.3%)
+16.4% Washington DC(+11.1%)
+16.2% Tampa(+14.7%)
+16.2% Tucson(+6.8%)
+16.0% Salt Lake City(+13.3%)
+15.5% Portland(+11.9%)
+15.2% Indianapolis(+9.8%)
+14.7% Richmond(+8.8%)
+14.4% Oklahoma City(+12.4%)
+13.9% Columbus(+11.5%)
+13.0% Seattle(+15.7%)
+11.1% Miami(+10.8%)
+10.9% Kansas City(+7.4%)
+10.5% Louisville(+5.1%)
+10.5% Minneapolis(+9.2%)
+10.0% San Diego(+7.8%)
+9.2% Memphis(+2.2%)
+9.1% Tulsa(+6.8%)
+7.2% Birmingham(+2.7%)
+6.2% Baltimore(+3.3%)
+6.0% Cincinnati(+3.9%)
+6.0% Virginia Beach(+3.2%)
+5.8% San Jose(+8.3%)
+5.6% Hartford(-0.6%)
+5.1% San Francisco(+9.1%)
+4.9% Philadelphia(+2.3%)
+4.5% Grand Rapids(+8.4%)
+4.2% St Louis(+0.5%)
+4.0% Chicago(-0.03%)
+3.7% Boston(+7.0%)
+3.7% Los Angeles(+3.0%)
+3.7% Milwaukee(+1.2%)
+3.1% New York(+1.6%)
+1.6% Rochester(-0.9%)
+1.1% Providence(+1.4%)
-3.0% Buffalo(-0.6%)
-3.1% Pittsburgh(-1.6%)
-3.3% Cleveland(-1.3%)

-3.5% Detroit(+0.5%)
-11.3% New Orleans(+6.8%)
I remember in the 90’s and 00’s when Las Vegas was the fastest growing metro seemingly every year, along with Phoenix, Charlotte and Atlanta. All four of those metros have fallen off quite a bit (especially Las Vegas) but are still some of the fastest growing metros.

Las Vegas and Phoenix were some of the hardest hit areas during the Great Recession though Phoenix has really ramped up its economic growth over the past five year, Vegas not as much it’s still very tourist-dependent. Atlanta and Charlotte were hit hard as well when their financial institutions and corporations were failing and consolidating. Atlanta has recovered nicely over the past decade but Charlotte hasn’t though things look like they are trending up there.

Raleigh/Durham and the Research Triangle continues to be a magnet, I see that continuing as it’s a good landing spot for those leaving the northeast and immigrants with lots of good paying jobs and a favorable climate. Orlando has also rebounded after taking a beating during the Recession and is still seeing impressive growth along with the other Florida cities like Tampa and Jacksonville.

One interesting thing I noticed is that cities with constantly high crime rates like Chicago, St Louis, Birmingham, Memphis, Baltimore and Detroit saw marked declines in the past decade, and that could be one of the culprits as people flee higher crime inner city neighborhoods.
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  #153  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 7:52 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
I remember in the 90’s and 00’s when Las Vegas was the fastest growing metro seemingly every year, along with Phoenix, Charlotte and Atlanta. All four of those metros have fallen off quite a bit (especially Las Vegas) but are still some of the fastest growing metros.

Las Vegas and Phoenix were some of the hardest hit areas during the Great Recession though Phoenix has really ramped up its economic growth over the past five year, Vegas not as much it’s still very tourist-dependent. Atlanta and Charlotte were hit hard as well when their financial institutions and corporations were failing and consolidating. Atlanta has recovered nicely over the past decade but Charlotte hasn’t though things look like they are trending up there.

Raleigh/Durham and the Research Triangle continues to be a magnet, I see that continuing as it’s a good landing spot for those leaving the northeast and immigrants with lots of good paying jobs and a favorable climate. Orlando has also rebounded after taking a beating during the Recession and is still seeing impressive growth along with the other Florida cities like Tampa and Jacksonville.

One interesting thing I noticed is that cities with constantly high crime rates like Chicago, St Louis, Birmingham, Memphis, Baltimore and Detroit saw marked declines in the past decade, and that could be one of the culprits as people flee higher crime inner city neighborhoods.
I started to track US metro areas population by 2000, just before US Census release their numbers. A nerd child, I was.

And indeed, Las Vegas was insane. Using Clark County:

1990: 741,459
2000: 1,375,765 --- 85.5%
2010: 1,951,269 --- 41.8%
2019: 2,266,715 --- 16.2%

I remember vividly about the news on how hard Las Vegas was hit by 2008. At some point, they were barely growing. They somehow recovery, but they are at normal rates, even though California is hemorraging people more than ever.

Phoenix:

1990: 2,238,480
2000: 3,251,876 --- 45.3%
2010: 4,192,887 --- 28.9%
2019: 4,948,203 --- 18.0%

Phoenix was also damaged, but they rebounded and now it's growing faster than Las Vegas, but a much more modest rates than the past decades.

Atlanta, the star of the 1990's, it also slowed down much faster than their oppoents Dallas and Houston. Maybe it's the competition from Charlotte, Nashville and Raleigh.

Atlanta
1990: 3,082,308
2000: 4,263,438 --- 38.3%
2010: 5,286,728 --- 24.0%
2019: 6,020,364 --- 13.9%

Houston
1990: 3,750,883
2000: 4,693,161 --- 25.1%
2010: 5,920,416 --- 26.1%
2019: 7,066,141 --- 19.3%

Dallas
1990: 3,984,437
2000: 5,156,217 --- 29.4%
2010: 6,366,542 --- 23.5%
2019: 7,573,136 --- 18.9%
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  #154  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 8:12 PM
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Originally Posted by yuriandrade View Post
I started to track US metro areas population by 2000, just before US Census release their numbers. A nerd child, I was.

And indeed, Las Vegas was insane. Using Clark County:

1990: 741,459
2000: 1,375,765 --- 85.5%
2010: 1,951,269 --- 41.8%
2019: 2,266,715 --- 16.2%

I remember vividly about the news on how hard Las Vegas was hit by 2008. At some point, they were barely growing. They somehow recovery, but they are at normal rates, even though California is hemorraging people more than ever.
I'm old enough to remember how the 2008 Financial Crisis materialized. Las Vegas was the ground zero for the subprime mortgages that nearly tanked our financial system.
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  #155  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 8:40 PM
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I'm old enough to remember how the 2008 Financial Crisis materialized. Las Vegas was the ground zero for the subprime mortgages that nearly tanked our financial system.
This comment makes me feel old.
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  #156  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 8:47 PM
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Uh no, Crawford is projecting as usual. Economic crisis doesn't guarantee later growth and all those other cities went through the same things if not identical to metro Detroit.


Brilliant math skills there. A giant % decrease in population/economic output won't result in an outsized % increase once the downturn ends. What kind of "math" is that? New Orleans had Austin-style % growth immediately following Katrina, but it was no way related to Katrina recovery, right? I guess it's just a crazy coincidence that a few years after Katrina, once rebuilding ended, the growth in NOLA went from Austin-level to stagnation.

And who could have forgotten the huge auto industries in Pittsburgh, Buffalo and Cleveland, and their catastrophic 2008 depressions? Oh, wait, you just made that up.
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  #157  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 8:52 PM
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Originally Posted by BG918 View Post
One interesting thing I noticed is that cities with constantly high crime rates like Chicago, St Louis, Birmingham, Memphis, Baltimore and Detroit saw marked declines in the past decade, and that could be one of the culprits as people flee higher crime inner city neighborhoods.
This doesn't make sense. These metros don't have higher crime rates than the fast growing metros. A booming metro like Atlanta isn't safer than a stagnant metro like Detroit. Also, poor people trapped in inner-city conditions have the least mobility.
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  #158  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 9:31 PM
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Also, poor people trapped in inner-city conditions have the least mobility.
True, but the middle class who lived in many of those neighborhoods in chicago have left, and continue to leave, as those communities continue along the downward spiral of increasing poverty and violence and decreasing population and investment. It's one of the most vicious cycles, and one witnessed in so many cities across the country.
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  #159  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 9:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
True, but the middle class who lived in many of those neighborhoods in chicago have left, and continue to leave, as those communities continue along the downward spiral of increasing poverty and violence and decreasing population and investment. It's one of the most vicious cycles, and one witnessed in so many cities across the country.
Right, but it has nothing to do with what we're discussing. Orlando isn't faster growing than Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh is poorer, more violent or more dangerous.

If anything, Sunbelt metros tend to have somewhat higher crime and poverty rates than the older Northeastern/Midwestern metros. The average household moving from, say, Cleveland to Charlotte isn't moving to a safer environment.
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  #160  
Old Posted Jan 23, 2021, 9:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Right, but it has nothing to do with what we're discussing. Orlando isn't faster growing than Pittsburgh because Pittsburgh is poorer, more violent or more dangerous.

If anything, Sunbelt metros tend to have somewhat higher crime and poverty rates than the older Northeastern/Midwestern metros. The average household moving from, say, Cleveland to Charlotte isn't moving to a safer environment.
Metro level, yes, Sun Belt cities probably have higher crime rates, and maybe even higher rates of poverty. But I think the observation is an indicator that declining metros have a tendency to silo off their poverty to the central city.
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