DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[mojiferous]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Yeah well. Some of us grew up, got real jobs, and no longer need the forum to know what's going on. And since this is mostly a forum of takers, not givers, maybe we do not care if you have to scroll through a few pages of unwanted commentary to absorb some of our knowledge.

Maybe you tech bros and other pretenders should just say thank you. Silence isn't hurting me any, other than some nostalgia.

Don't fool yourself - you're as much of a taker as the rest of us and have never been a giver of anything but opinion... And you may have an informed opinion about the law, but this is not a legal forum and the topics covered range from engineering to political, so even you, esteemed Esquire Bunt, will take more than you give.

And we all took more than gave, but toxic little replies like this drove most of the bigger givers away. Because this isn't some rando reddit forum full of preteens and trolls and *SURPRISE* most of the people who stumble here are professionals of some sort. We all share interests or education and like architecture and urban planning and aren't here for the lols. There aren't "pretenders" here, but there are a lot of people that have much better things to do than deal with immature sneering or self-aggrandizing quips.

I actually care about urban development issues in Denver, so I would rather go find my information and engage in discussions where something might get done. Where there might be information and not just ranting and echoes. Where people are ready to engage and strategize about the future of our city. This is so very clearly not that place any more, and a big reason why is this response and others like it.


So, I have to thank you for very clearly illustrating the death mechanism of this forum.

[laniroj]

Lots of posturing going on since the TakeFive January 6th moment. How about we all take a deep breath and post relevant development questions, commentary, news, etc and stop complaining?

I'd encourage Cirrus to remove all posts simply complaining or containing personal attacks so we can get back on track! I enjoy the forum and everyone's comments, even irrelevant ones, and I'll do my best to include relevant development posts!

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

That makes sense. What do you think about these factors in relation to Denver:

--If certain cities and project types will do better than others, will Denver do better than most?

--The stock market has done well. Will investors shift significant money to commercial real estate as a hedge/diversification, particularly with a rise in distressed sales, if that means reasonable cap rates based on post-WFH expectations? I mean players outside CRE that aren't weighed down by existing properties.

As for traditional players, it sounds like they're burdened for a long time, during and well after it all hits the fan.

Who knows of Denver. Population growth solves a lot of ills so if that growth remains robust, Denver will do fine in the medium term. That's a big question mark to me at the moment. The cost of living in Denver is a serious issue. All of the midwesterners, Texans, and Arizonans fueling some of that regional growth are likely to slow down their moves to CO due to our high costs now - they've made up the lions share of net in-migration pretty much forever so that slowing up may be be significant.

Short term development of office, multifamily, retail, are not screwed but probably not significant or robust - well located projects will move forward, but most will not. Once that residential engine slows down, retail almost instantly shuts off and office is....well....screwed. I don't see multifamily starts seeing significant growth over the next 2 years. Single family will keep chugging along - that's largely funded with cash, not debt, from home builders who are enjoying all time highs in stock price and profitability, but as we've seen over the past 15 years, they've not yet ramped up production like they did pre-great Recession. Seems they are all still scared from the 2007/8 crash (can't say I blame them).

Investors are only half the equation. Large scale multi/office/retail/industrial has at least a 50% debt component. Debt markets aren't broken, but that major liquidity problem is real and if 7/10 projects used to get fully funded, maybe 2/10 get funded now...maybe. Yeah, there will always be equity for good projects, but the risk adjusted return right now is maybe 8-9% return on cost - nothing is getting to that number because costs/rates are too high. So...everyone is sitting, waiting for costs and rates to come down and the market isn't really adjusting on a large scale...yet.

I kind of think hotels might still do well in Denver/Mtn Resorts but they're debt reliant as well so maybe they're stuck in the mud. We shall see. Denver sorely needs some more resort style hotels - not on the scale of Gaylord, moreso Great Wolf. Seems like an opportunity at the right location. Maybe a redo of OMNI Interlocken or Inverness or even a HOTEL PRIME in Boulder!

[wong21fr]

Cherry Creek thriving while other commercial districts in U.S., including downtown Denver, are struggling
The Denver Post

The Cherry Creek “submarket” has an office vacancy rate closer to 8.5% with several office developments underway, not to mention retail and multi-family residential. It remains a rare bastion of vibrancy in a struggling commercial market.
“Cherry Creek is a bright point in commercial real estate nationally,” said Carroll, whose office overlooks the empty lot across the street that will host the new building. And the rise of Cherry Creek reflects a larger “flight to quality” at play in Colorado and other regions.
With high-end retail, numerous dining options, executive housing, premium hotels, and multi-family all attached to a robust business district, Cherry Creek represents a “super-unique” concentration that is hard to replicate, said Hilary Barnett, a senior director in Denver with JLL Capital Markets.
“New construction in Cherry Creek is 99% leased before it delivers,” Barnett said. “Cherry Creek has positioned itself as one of the top markets in the U.S.”
Cherry Creek has been long known for its concentration of financial service firms, especially money managers like Janus Capital and family offices, which are the investment arms of wealthy individuals. When it came to office offerings, the neighborhood was known for smaller boutique spaces, with the typical lease around 13,000 square feet, Barnett said.
The pandemic caused a shift to remote work, which has been hard to unwind. Employers don’t need as much space with fewer workers coming in five days a week. At the same time, if they want employees to show up more, they feel pressure to provide a more attractive work environment.
More employers are willing to trade quantity for quality and Cherry Creek is well-positioned for the exchange. Its smaller office sizes are more amenable to a wider array of companies than in the past. And the amenities of the surrounding neighborhood improve the odds that workers will want to come in, justifying the higher cost per square foot.
Cherry Creek is even landing some bigger players that wouldn’t have ever considered the area in the past. Antero Resources, a $7 billion-a-year oil and gas company, plans to relocate its headquarters from Union Station to a new 140,000-square-foot building at 201 Fillmore St. that Seattle-based Schnitzer West is developing.
Antero proved a trendsetter in 2012 with plans to relocate its headquarters to the Union Station neighborhood, pioneering a massive wave of redevelopment in that area and the larger Central Platte Valley.
Cherry Creek has about one-tenth of downtown’s office space, so it isn’t equipped to handle larger corporate headquarters. Antero likely represents a special case, but it is a testament to the district’s growing popularity.

Cherry Creek as well as the LoDo and Union Station submarkets, are a good testament to a) the vitality of mixed-use districts and b) the perception of safety. Downtown is certainly a bit of mess given the ongoing construction of the 16th Street Mall (which will clear up next year), but the city needs to do more in terms of subsidies and incentives to accelerate residential development and office conversion. The safety portion is being addressed, but the reputation of downtown, fair or not, that developed from 2020 to early 2023 is going to takes years to fix.

One suggestion would be to gut the planning department given the cancer of apathy that has infected the bureaucracy. I don't care if we outsource design review to ChatGPT, as long as the review process timeline is halved or less. I'd also introduce an incentive that any residential project with x% of affordable units in the CBD would be guaranteed a six-month submital to permit issuance with minimal revisions, i.e. you meet the zoning and safety you can break ground. Give developers some certainty and reduce one avenue of risk.

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by wong21fr

...One suggestion would be to gut the planning department given the cancer of apathy that has infected the bureaucracy. I don't care if we outsource design review to ChatGPT, as long as the review process timeline is halved or less. I'd also introduce an incentive that any residential project with x% of affordable units in the CBD would be guaranteed a six-month submital to permit issuance with minimal revisions, i.e. you meet the zoning and safety you can break ground. Give developers some certainty and reduce one avenue of risk.

Does your name start with Vivek and end with Ramaswamy?! All for it!

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by laniroj

Does your name start with Vivek and end with Ramaswamy?! All for it!

That faux patriotic shitbird? Nah.

You mentioned a desire for resort-style hotels in the Metro Area. I do think that a Great Wolf style setup would work well as part of the development of Victory Crossing at Dicks.

Also, who at Snobahn do I need to bribe to put a central location in Denver proper? With the Centennial and Thornton locations all that's needed is something in Denver. Put it next to the Downtown Aquarium.

[gopokes21]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Yeah well. Some of us grew up, got real jobs, and no longer need the forum to know what's going on. And since this is mostly a forum of takers, not givers, maybe we do not care if you have to scroll through a few pages of unwanted commentary to absorb some of our knowledge.

Maybe you tech bros and other pretenders should just say thank you. Silence isn't hurting me any, other than some nostalgia.

In a weird way, I should say congrats because somehow this thread got even weirder without takefive in it?

I'll never understand people who posture on the internet. Kinda makes me terrified for how you posture irl.

[gopokes21]

Since I'm probably a taker, and not a giver, maybe I should put something back into the communal candy dish that is this forum.

The old Regal Theater at I-25/Hampden is getting redeveloped. You'll never guess the proposed new use - 400+ apartments.

https://www.denverpost.com/2024/04/0...on-apartments/

Good density though. I nearly bought a house recently around Hampden, because there are some great deals and I like mid-century modern houses. Anyone who planned on selling their house in the next 5 years is freaking out because the city put that shelter for unhoused families in the former Embassy Suites hotel.

I kid you not, these nitwits are voluntarily taking $25-50K off their listing price solely due to their own biases around housing the homeless. Just goes to show you didn't have to be a genius to buy a great house in Denver for cheap 20 years ago.

[DenvertoLA]

https://www.9news.com/article/news/l...2-374c2add5aef

If only RTD built the train to downtown Golden. Smh

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by DenvertoLA

https://www.9news.com/article/news/l...2-374c2add5aef

If only RTD built the train to downtown Golden. Smh

RTD owns the ROW, maybe the state would actually fund mass transit for a change, outside of the pittance that is Bustang, and provided some funding to extend the G Line? Nah.

The 700k of office space seems too much. I halve that and triple the apartments. Other than that, it's going to be a great addition to Golden.

[gopokes21]

Golden already has some nice draw. G Line would be really nice, but technically, Golden is already served by the W Line terminal (barely).

Great looking density proposed for Coors, I wouldn't be surprised if neighbor backlash ends up limiting density.

[Cirrus]

Ohhhh thank you for posting the plan. I was mid-way through a no freaking way they're redeveloping Coors mental freakout. It's just a satellite building. Gotttt it.

Also, RTD serving a park and ride at the JeffCo taj mahal on the edge of town isn't the same as a walkable station downtown. Doesn't super count.

[wong21fr]

Originally Posted by gopokes21

Golden already has some nice draw. G Line would be really nice, but technically, Golden is already served by the W Line terminal (barely).

Great looking density proposed for Coors, I wouldn't be surprised if neighbor backlash ends up limiting density.

Not sure if it will end up getting limited asides from changes in programming due to economics. Looks like they got the site development plan and all zoning changes, went with a planned unit development, approved in 2022. Hopefully it gets built to the maximum potential.