The US Census Bureau thread

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by eschaton

My understanding is Highland Park is one of those cities that's so poor they have a hard time paying for a police force and keeping on streetlights. I think any sort of outreach is probably beyond them.

Yeah, Highland Park is basically East St. Louis or Gary-level challenged. And no casinos like the other two. They absolutely have issues with basic delivery of services like streetlights, and sold off most of the schools and municipal buildings a while ago.

The city probably should be de-incorporated and have the county take over functions. I don't think Detroit would take it.

[benp]

Originally Posted by subterranean

I'd love to see this, it just seems like a hard sell at this point. Highland Park would do well in actively promote itself as a place for new immigrants through visa and grant programs for small business startups.

2020 Census shows 3917 occupied properties, and 1220 vacant properties in Highland Park, 23.7% of all housing. A look at properties for sale only shows 39 homes, and at least 9 of them are not in livable condition. Since 2000, 2112 properties were demolished. 953 of those since 2010.

For comparison, Hamtramck shows 8139 occupied properties, and 772 vacant properties, 8.7% of all housing. 97 homes are listed for sale. Since 2000, 755 properties were lost, between 2010 and 2020 the numbers increased. In 1980, Highland Park had a larger population and more homes than Hamtramck.

Highland Park:
Population 27909(1980)-8977(2020) - loss of 18,932 people
Housing 11727(1980) -5137(2020) - loss of 6590 homes

Hamtramck:
Population 21300(1980)-28433(2020) - gain of 7133 people
Housing 10322(1980)-8911(2020) - loss of 1411 homes

[Steely Dan]

the future does not look bright for HP.

the city has lost roughly 1/4 of its population each decade for the past 5 decades, on average.

if that trend continues, the city is looking at a population of only ~6,700 at the end of this decade, approaching a nearly 90% population loss from a high of ~53K set back in 1930.

crawford might be right, disincorporating may be the only viable option left for the place. a potential rejuvenation springing forth from the south along woodward seems like it'd still be too far out at this point. there's still ~2 miles of blight to fill in along woodward north of new center before you even reach highland park.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yeah, Highland Park is basically East St. Louis or Gary-level challenged. And no casinos like the other two. They absolutely have issues with basic delivery of services like streetlights, and sold off most of the schools and municipal buildings a while ago.

The city probably should be de-incorporated and have the county take over functions. I don't think Detroit would take it.

Yeah, the county should take it over, not Detroit. I wonder if any incorporated place in Michigan has ever de-incorporated? There may not even be a legal mechanism for doing so.

[edale]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

hamtramck and highland park are such interesting anomalies.

i mean, how many other major US cities have almost entirely pre-war built-out independent municipalities 100% enclaved within them?

Cincinnati has two: Norwood, and St. Bernard (the grayed out islands).



Norwood (incorporated 1888):
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1527...7i16384!8i8192

https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1619...7i16384!8i8192


St. Bernard (incorporated 1878):
https://www.google.com/maps/@39.1639...7i16384!8i8192

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Fi...!4d-84.5019606

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

hamtramck and highland park are such interesting anomalies.

i mean, how many other major US cities have almost entirely pre-war built-out independent municipalities 100% enclaved within them?

chicago has the enclaved burbs of Norridge and Harwood Heights fully inside of city limits on the far northwest side of the city, but they are way further out and >90% post-war in terms of build-out, so not at all the same thing as hamtramck and HP.

Oakland completely surrounds Piedmont, which was mostly built out pre-war.

This map is 1938.

[Trae]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

Interesting. Why did the east side drop while the west increased? I know nothing about Houston btw

Well most of the east half of Houston's inner loop isn't really considered part of the core and thats because it's more industrial. Instead there are areas just to the west of the inner loop that are considered part of the urban core but they fall outside the freeway boundary.

[subterranean]

Oregon’s population is booming. Not so for kids.


The past decade brought many things to Oregon: economic recovery from the Great Recession, surging household incomes and some of the nation’s biggest population gains. What it did not deliver: more children.

What it did not deliver: more children.

Even as Oregon added more than 400,000 adults from 2010 to 2020, resulting in an overall population spike of 10.6%, the number of children remained virtually unchanged.

In fact, Oregon reported only 151 more children age 17 or younger last year than it did a decade earlier, according to an analysis by The Oregonian/OregonLive of 10-year Census data.

Source: https://www.oregonlive.com/data/2021...outputType=amp

[mhays]

The key point isn't Oregon itself, but that it's a national trend -- declining birth rates primarily.

Oregon's did drop more than most however.

[subterranean]

Originally Posted by mhays

The key point isn't Oregon itself, but that it's a national trend -- declining birth rates primarily.

Oregon's did drop more than most however.

Is there something wrong with me posting local trends here? Not sure why the commentary was necessary - I though that was common knowledge.

[mhays]

Context is generally good.

Also, we discuss data on this thread.

[C.]

I find myself wondering abut 2030 city proper populations.

• NYC finally hits 9,000,000
• The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area undergoes a name change and becomes the New York-Jersey City-Newark, NY-NJ-PA MSA
• Atlanta falls just short of 600,000
• Jacksonville and Charlotte topping a million
• Ft. Worth exceeds a million, tops Austin, and closes in on Dallas
• Houston overtaking Chicago to be the third largest city in the county
• All the Texas cities in general continue to see rapid growth
• Jackson, MS starts a rebound
• Detroit stabilizes?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by C.

I find myself wondering abut 2030 city proper populations.

* Houston overtaking Chicago to be the third largest city in the county

As of census 2020, Chicago city proper was 441,808 people larger than Houston city proper (2,746,388 vs. 2,304,580).


From 2010 - 2020, Chicago gained 50,790 people.

From 2010 - 2020, Houston gained 205,129 people.

Net gain by Houston for the decade: 154,339


Now, given the fact that Houston's land area is roughly 3x the size of Chicago's, and growing much faster, it's very likely that Houston will overtake Chicago eventually, but it's going to have to massively up its growth rate, or hope for another epic collapse in Chicago, to close the gap by 2030.

If their annual numerical growths were to stay exactly the same as they did last decade (fat chance!), It would take Houston 29 years from 2020 to close the gap. So perhaps by mid century (though 2040 is very possible depending on how the trajectories of their growth rates go).

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by C.

I find myself wondering abut 2030 city proper populations.

• NYC finally hits 9,000,000
• The New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA Metro Area undergoes a name change and becomes the New York-Jersey City-Newark, NY-NJ-PA MSA
• Atlanta falls just short of 600,000
• Jacksonville and Charlotte topping a million
• Ft. Worth exceeds a million, tops Austin, and closes in on Dallas
• Houston overtaking Chicago to be the third largest city in the county
• All the Texas cities in general continue to see rapid growth
• Jackson, MS starts a rebound
• Detroit stabilizes?

Barring some catastrophe, NYC hitting 9 million seems like the closest thing to a sure bet on this list.

[Crawford]

Yeah, no way Houston tops Chicago by 2030. Not even if Chicago has a shitty decade and Houston has a fantastic decade.

But city limits comparisons are kinda silly. Houston isn't even the largest TX "city", really.

[ChiSoxRox]

A rather intriguing thought is that the Houston MSA has twice the growth rate of the city proper, so perhaps Houston will catch Chicago in MSA population before city proper. (Especially presuming Chicago's core boom expands and the city limits can start posting Philly/NYC growth rates.)

Houston MSA/Chicago MSA ratio:

2000: 45.9%
2010: 62.6%
2020: 74.0%

(Of course, DFW will catch Chicagoland first.)

[Lobotomizer]

Originally Posted by C.

I find myself wondering abut 2030 city proper populations.

• Ft. Worth exceeds a million, tops Austin, and closes in on Dallas

In 2020 Austin had a population of 42,940 more than Fort Worth.

They grew by +21.69% and +23.98% between 2010 and 2020 respectively.

If those growth rates continue Fort Worth's population would be 1,139,271 in 2030.

Austin' population would be 1,170,481 in 2030.

Dallas had a population of 1,304,379 in 2020, and is itself still growing, albeit much slower.

I do not believe there will be any change in the rankings of the large Texas cities in the 2030 census.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yeah, no way Houston tops Chicago by 2030. Not even if Chicago has a shitty decade and Houston has a fantastic decade.

But city limits comparisons are kinda silly. Houston isn't even the largest TX "city", really.

Actually, it is if you go by city populations, but I do agree that's a poor method of measuring them. By that metric, San Antonio is larger than Dallas.

[mhays]

I think his point is that it depends on what you consider the "city." The administrative unit or the city on the ground, which might be similar to UA or metro.

[Gordo]

Seattle has a decent shot at becoming the 8th major US city (by city limits) to hit 10k+ ppsm density by 2030. The current cities above that mark are the six urban usuals and Miami.