NEW YORK | 2020 Census data | 8,804,190

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

and some regaining of old people too.

anecdote:

my cousin and her husband left their small brooklyn apartment like 2 months into covid and moved out to portland for some reason.

they just returned to brooklyn back in septemeber. and they decided to buy a condo this time, so i think they're planning on staying for some time.

Good point....I have noticed that too in my neighborhood (LIC)!

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

and some regaining of old people too.

anecdote:

my cousin and her husband left their small brooklyn apartment like 2 months into covid and moved out to portland for some reason.

they just returned to brooklyn back in septemeber. and they decided to buy a condo this time, so i think they're planning on staying for some time.

A friend of mine that went away late last spring just texted me that he's apartment hunting in Brooklyn again.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The city needs to continue moving in the multi-nodal direction, but it shouldn't have trouble supporting more population. But Brooklyn and Queens can easily support hundreds of thousands more residents than live there now.

But then they really won't be Brooklyn and Queens anymore but a more of a dressed down version of Manhattan. These boroughs are already insanely expensive in a lot of areas and throwing in another million will send them off the charts. Perhaps we can dilute the Guidos on Staten Island with a few more people that aren't 'The Situation' clones but the rest of the city is pretty full as it is. Send them to Newark...

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

the rest of the city is pretty full as it is. Send them to Newark...

or better yet, send them to detroit, st. louis, cleveland, pittsburgh, and buffalo.

another 1.5M in NYC won't move the needle all that much, but an extra 300K in each of the city propers of those 5 cities above would completely rewrite their scripts.



not that it will ever happen, but an old rustbelt grouch can dream, can't I?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

But then they really won't be Brooklyn and Queens anymore but a more of a dressed down version of Manhattan. These boroughs are already insanely expensive in a lot of areas and throwing in another million will send them off the charts. Perhaps we can dilute the Guidos on Staten Island with a few more people that aren't 'The Situation' clones but the rest of the city is pretty full as it is. Send them to Newark...

Brooklyn and Queens have already morphed into Manhattan extensions. But the city is always changing. People get attached to how the city is at a specific point in time, but the truth is that the city is always changing.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Brooklyn and Queens have already morphed into Manhattan extensions. But the city is always changing. People get attached to how the city is at a specific point in time, but the truth is that the city is always changing.

Brooklyn must be frozen in time of Andrew Dice Clay and the Sweathogs.

[NYguy]

Originally Posted by JManc

At 8.8 million now...would you really want that? I think anything more than 10 million and taking into account all the geographic constraints, New York would start to lose quality of living after a while.

Not really, it depends on how you build. Manhattan is very dense, I don't think people that live in Manhattan are suffering. People who want or need more open space tend to live in suburbia, or move to less populated areas. New York is home to millions of people, but it's a city. There are neighborhoods in the boroughs where you wouldn't even know you were in New York City. And that's fine on it's own. But for a city that's still growing, there has to be solutions, and maybe some less dense neighborhoods have to become more dense. I don't think trying to put a lid on the city's growth is a good solution. There was a time, back in the 60's and 70's when the city was losing a lot of people, and it wasn't a good time for the city. A healthy city grows, a smart city finds a way to accommodate that growth.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by NYguy

Not really, it depends on how you build. Manhattan is very dense, I don't think people that live in Manhattan are suffering. People who want or need more open space tend to live in suburbia, or move to less populated areas. New York is home to millions of people, but it's a city. There are neighborhoods in the boroughs where you wouldn't even know you were in New York City. And that's fine on it's own. But for a city that's still growing, there has to be solutions, and maybe some less dense neighborhoods have to become more dense. I don't think trying to put a lid on the city's growth is a good solution. There was a time, back in the 60's and 70's when the city was losing a lot of people, and it wasn't a good time for the city. A healthy city grows, a smart city finds a way to accommodate that growth.

I remember when NY during its rough years in the 80's even though i was a kid. Pretty bad. And even in high school I wasn't allowed to go down there because it was still bad (pre Giuliani era) but now it's booming but Manhattan is built up due to a over a century of development and progress to make it what it is today. We will all be long gone by the time the outer boroughs even approach that level. Staten Island perhaps by the time the sun dies. If the NY is going to reach Asian megacity numbers, it's going to take a while to account for the growing pains.

[jd3189]

I think the subway is the limiting factor for future NY growth. While I'm not against more growth in the City, we might as well push much of that growth to the Midwest and smaller towns in the NE. All that shit should be connected by high speed rail and that would provide a large geography for people to live a lifestyle that's different from what currently exists in the Sunbelt.

[C.]

Originally Posted by jd3189

I think the subway is the limiting factor for future NY growth.

The biggest hinderance to growth in NYC is from the NIMBY groups. Even in the metro area, there must be at least a hundred spots at transit centers along the LIRR, Metro North, and NJ Transit that are prime for intensification, but are held back due to general NIMBYism and outdated zoning from the 60s.

While I'm not against more growth in the City, we might as well push much of that growth to the Midwest and smaller towns in the NE.

Strongly disagree with pushing growth to areas where people don't want to live. Let it happen organically. If a particular State or city is doing the right thing and starts to attract people. Great! But I refuse to allow a selfish few trying to protect their so called neighborhood character harm the livelihood for the majority of people. The U.S. planning process needs to be revisited and these sky-high property values may be the catalyst that prevents anyone with a modest income from affording a home may be the catalyst.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by JManc

But then they really won't be Brooklyn and Queens anymore but a more of a dressed down version of Manhattan. These boroughs are already insanely expensive in a lot of areas and throwing in another million will send them off the charts. Perhaps we can dilute the Guidos on Staten Island with a few more people that aren't 'The Situation' clones but the rest of the city is pretty full as it is. Send them to Newark...

welp we walked the so-called guinea gangplank and just bought a condo in staten, so doing my part. i already met a couple former clevelanders, a random teen in the park and a neighbor, so like the other boros that doesnt seem to be unusual, but pretty sure i'll be the only hungarian there.

btw the city could easily grow to 10-15M and still be comfortable and functioning, there is plenty more room than people realize to densify, even in manhattan. so no major physical issues with absorbing growth are in sight for quite a long time. of course people issues, like nimbyism and growing and maintaining infrastructure, are another thing.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

btw the city could easily grow to 10-15M and still be comfortable and functioning, there is plenty more room than people realize to densify, even in manhattan. so no major physical issues with absorbing growth are in sight for quite a long time. of course people issues, like nimbyism and growing and maintaining infrastructure, are another thing.

Yeah, exactly. There is plenty of room in NYC to hit 10, even 12 million. It will just be a city that's much less Manhattan centered than it has been for most of its history. It's already going in that direction as the city becomes more poly-centric.

[C.]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, exactly. There is plenty of room in NYC to hit 10, even 12 million. It will just be a city that's much less Manhattan centered than it has been for most of its history. It's already going in that direction as the city becomes more poly-centric.

2021 population estimates are out
https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...estimates.html

[ChiSoxRox]

To be fair, the yearly estimates had NYC plunging in 2018 and 2019 as well. I don't doubt covid caused a blip (especially since these estimates cover the brunt of the first and second waves), but I am going to take these estimates with an ocean's worth of salt.

[C.]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

To be fair, the yearly estimates had NYC plunging in 2018 and 2019 as well. I don't doubt covid caused a blip (especially since these estimates cover the brunt of the first and second waves), but I am going to take these estimates with an ocean's worth of salt.

While I agree with you, I'm merely passing on the official data as has been done for years now in this thread.

My theory is that Trump was interfering with the Census estimates to make NY, NJ, IL look worse than what they really were. I'm hoping that interference has ended and the numbers would be a little more accurate. I think the culprit this year is clearly COVID and not a major flaw in the estimate.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by C.

While I agree with you, I'm merely passing on the official data as has been done for years now in this thread.

My theory is that Trump was interfering with the Census estimates to make NY, NJ, IL look worse than what they really were. I'm hoping that interference has ended and the numbers would be a little more accurate. I think the culprit this year is clearly COVID and not a major flaw in the estimate.

I don't think Trump interfered with anything regarding the ACS. They just have a methodology that is better at estimating sprawled out Sun Belt cities versus built out urban cities.

[C.]

Looks like tomorrow we'll find out the official Census estimates for the 5 counties that make up New York plus Richmond County.

Unfortunately, the map released by the Census Bureau in advance of the estimates appears to show there is a drop in population from the official 2020 counts. This is probably pandemic related as people, including myself, have relocated due to the wider availability of WFH.


New thread title soon:
NEW YORK CITY | 2021 Census estimates | 8,???,???

[ChiSoxRox]

8,467,513 for the 2021 estimates

[SAN Man]

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

8,467,513 for the 2021 estimates

How much of a difference is that from the official count in 2020? Oh wait, never mind, it's in the thread title: 8,804,190.

[ChiSoxRox]

Originally Posted by SAN Man

How much of a difference is that from the official count in 2020? Oh wait, never mind, it's in the thread title: 8,804,190.

To be fair, in addition to the WFH hit which was near its nadir in July 2021, the Census estimates had been rough for NYC. The 2019 estimate was 8,336,817 and dropping 54k from the year before -- over half a million off from the Census.

The estimate methodology iirc is heavily weighted by housing starts and extrapolating the movement questions from the Community Survey, both of which do not scale well to a dense, old-stock city like NYC.

So I do not doubt that WFH dropped NYC's population, but I'm skeptical of a 5% drop.