Quote:
Originally Posted by Steely Dan
if the lens you look at real estate through is that of an investor, then the above is true for any property anywhere.
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No, there are two general types of real estate investment:
1) choose an area that you think is "the next Brooklyn", buy as much as you can there, cash flow from rents is irrelevant (you can even leave stuff empty if you want less trouble), and the "exit strategy" is for it to be worth much more than you paid for, someday. Basically bitcoin, just more tangible (and optionally, it can also serve a secondary purpose as roof-over-one's-head for some tenant).
(We've been so "spoiled" lately, especially in Canadian cities, that we've come to regard the above as the main/normal way.)
2) choose an area where there's no speculation and cap rates are good, buy there, and get decent ROI from the cash flow of the business of actually
landlording (which is optional in Way #1). If values go up, that's a bonus; it's not needed to make financial sense.
The direct equivalent to both of those exists in stocks: there are stocks where the only end game is obviously to resell for more (companies that earn no money and/or sell at a completely comical multiple of their annual earnings and don't give you any dividend), but there are also stocks of good old school companies that actually do something productive and generate money and pay a reliable dividend every year to their shareholders.
I tried the "good cap rate, speculation is secondary" route in Amarillo, TX which I used to visit once in a while for business; I had a duplex there from 2015 to 2020. (Sold it for not much more than what I paid + inflation, in order to free $ to buy one more FL property that has since tripled.)
That duplex generated about 15% net on its purchase price, every year, for the five years I've had it.
You absolutely did not need to count on selling it to a Billionaire Chinese Money Launderer in order for it to be a sound-ish investment.
That said, I'm curious to look at values for similar properties nowadays. I'm pretty sure they're still low. I don't regret getting rid of it, but I'm expecting that some day, Way #2 of doing real estate will become the only way (values can't keep outpacing all other metrics indefinitely; it's a physical impossibility) and I'm ready for that.