Habemus Census! U.S. Official Population 2020 = 331,449,281

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

The census bureau clearly undercounts big urban centers.

What is clear is that these urban centers are becoming even more and more dense and dynamic. If the NE grew as a whole of only 4.5% or so, I'll wager a bet and say that the growth rate was concentrated in urban centers and their immediate surroundings and power within the NE will continue to consolidate in these centers and immediate suburbs. Alone, the BOS-NYC-PHL-BALT-DC corridor probably grew 10+% while the balance of these states shrunk.

It's not the worst thing in the world if PA loses a congressional district in NW PA which is shrinking 10% a decade and represented by a dinosaur, to shift the power to places that seem to be doing something right.

That's an important point. The Bos-Wash megapolis is now growing almost as fast as the US average. That's probably the first time for the past 100 years or more.

Maybe it's time for a more active planning from the federal government, specially regarding a modern and fast HSR, linking all the corridor and turning the whole region into a single labour market.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

For the actual loss to be less than 20k when the numbers were projecting 200-300k is giving conspiracy vibes . Add massive underestimations of NJ and NY and it's all suspect.

I'm not usually inclined to going down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, but I think crawford is right about the politics involved with the bureau's "estimates". It smells awfully fishy.

Here are the most numerically underestimated states:

NY
NJ
IL
PA
CA
MA
MD


So, Bos-Wash, LA/SF, and Chicago.

The very same 7 metro areas that literally made-up the nationwide numerical difference (and then some) in the last presidential election.

I mean, come on........


Or the census bureau just outright fucking sucks at big urban cities.

Politics or gross ineptitude?

[dimondpark]

Furthermore, it's interesting how different population growth is from economic growth.

GDP Percent Growth, 2010-2020
+69.3% Washington
+64.4% Utah
+56.6% California
+54.2% North Dakota
+54.0% South Dakota
+53.3% Oregon
+52.9% Colorado
+52.7% Idaho
+50.0% Arizona
+49.5% Georgia
+48.4% Tennessee
+48.3% Florida
+47.8% South Carolina
+42.3% Massachusetts
+42.1% Texas
+41.2% North Carolina
+40.6% Nebraska
+40.1% New York
+39.6% UNITED STATES
+39.8% Nevada
+37.5% Minnesota
+36.2% Kansas
+36.0% Ohio
+35.2% Iowa
+34.9% District of Columbia
+34.2% Montana
+33.5% Maryland
+33.4% Michigan
+33.0% Wisconsin
+32.8% Indiana
+32.8% New Hampshire
+31.5% Delaware
+30.8% Hawaii
+30.5% Illinois
+30.4% Virginia
+30.2% Pennsylvania
+29.4% Maine
+29.0% Arkansas
+28.0% Alabama
+28.0% Kentucky
+25.3% New Jersey
+24.9% Missouri
+22.4% Rhode Island
+21.5% Oklahoma
+20.0% Mississippi
+19.0% New Mexico
+18.5% Vermont
+17.6% Connecticut
+12.3% West Virginia
+6.6% Louisiana
-2.7% Wyoming
-3.8% Alaska

GDP Total Growth, 2010-2020
California +$1,118,000,000,000
Texas.........+$522,000,000,000
New York ...+$487,000,000,000
Florida........+$357,000,000,000

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by yuriandrade

That's an important point. The Bos-Wash megapolis is now growing almost as fast as the US average. That's probably the first time for the past 100 years or more.

Maybe it's time for a more active planning from the federal government, specially regarding a modern and fast HSR, linking all the corridor and turning the whole region into a single labour market.

You do realize that the federal government has been actively working to harm cities, right? We just had an administration that blocked all new transit funding, tried to kill Amtrak, tried to cancel the most important transit infrastructure project in the U.S. (new NY-NJ rail tunnel) and repeatedly spread lies about cities being dangerous, disordered and declined? The last tax reform was essentially an effort at killing cities by punishing people who don't move out.

The U.S., since its inception, has always been wary of cities, and often openly hostile. Jefferson hated cities. FL Wright wanted to kill cities. But the last few years have been unprecedented, with an administration actively at war with the nation's cities.

Hopefully, at some point, regardless of politics or culture, there's some broader recognition that city dwellers are Americans too, and not some alien species.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I'm not usually inclined to going down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, but I think crawford is right about the politics involved with the bureau's "estimates". It smells awfully fishy.

Here are the most numerically underestimated states:

NY
NJ
IL
PA
CA
MA
MD


So, Bos-Wash, LA/SF and Chicago.

The very same 7 metro areas that literally made-up the nationwide numerical difference (and then some) in the last presidential election.

I mean, come on........


Or the census bureau just outright fucking sucks at big urban cities.

Politics or gross ineptitude?

I think the ACS sucks in general lol. Their big urban city estimates were wildly off in the run up to the last Census, too. However, this time around they probably overcorrected for the drop in immigration that accompanied the Trump era. Either that, or they drastically undercounted immigration pre-Trump.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

You do realize that the federal government has been actively working to harm cities, right? We just had an administration that blocked all new transit funding, tried to kill Amtrak, tried to cancel the most important transit infrastructure project in the U.S. (new NY-NJ rail tunnel) and repeatedly spread lies about cities being dangerous, disordered and declined? The last tax reform was essentially an effort at killing cities by punishing people who don't move out.

The U.S., since its inception, has always been wary of cities, and often openly hostile. Jefferson hated cities. FL Wright wanted to kill cities. But the last few years have been unprecedented, with an administration actively at war with the nation's cities.

Hopefully, at some point, regardless of politics or culture, there's some broader recognition that city dwellers are Americans too, and not some alien species.

Yeah, I know your baggage regarding this, but I wish it was different.

See Japan, for instance, linking Tokyo-Nagoya-Osaka and their 75 million inh., with trains leaving the main stations every 3 min in the peak hours. The economy of scale allowed it, the gains, the elimination of inneficient air travels over short distances are invaluable.

With this welcomed growth of Northeast Corridor, more than ever, the whole country would benefit from such project.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

I'm not usually inclined to going down conspiracy theory rabbit holes, but I think crawford is right about the politics involved with the bureau's "estimates". It smells awfully fishy.

Here are the most numerically underestimated states:

NY
NJ
IL
PA
CA
MA
MD


So, Bos-Wash, LA/SF, and Chicago.

The very same 7 metro areas that literally made-up the nationwide numerical difference (and then some) in the last presidential election.

I mean, come on........


Or the census bureau just outright fucking sucks at big urban cities.

Politics or gross ineptitude?

I think there was an assumption that these states would lose, not gain or hold stable. For example, New York gaining almost a million probably took everyone by surprise...including New York.

[Ant131531]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I think the ACS sucks in general lol. Their big urban city estimates were wildly off in the run up to the last Census, too. However, this time around they probably overcorrected for the drop in immigration that accompanied the Trump era. Either that, or they drastically undercounted immigration pre-Trump.

It's not like the Texas cities don't get a ton of immigration either, yet Texas was overestimated.

[Busy Bee]

Originally Posted by Crawford

You do realize that the federal government has been actively working to harm cities, right? We just had an administration that blocked all new transit funding, tried to kill Amtrak, tried to cancel the most important transit infrastructure project in the U.S. (new NY-NJ rail tunnel) and repeatedly spread lies about cities being dangerous, disordered and declined? The last tax reform was essentially an effort at killing cities by punishing people who don't move out.

The U.S., since its inception, has always been wary of cities, and often openly hostile. Jefferson hated cities. FL Wright wanted to kill cities. But the last few years have been unprecedented, with an administration actively at war with the nation's cities.

Hopefully, at some point, regardless of politics or culture, there's some broader recognition that city dwellers are Americans too, and not some alien species.

It cannot be underestimated the post-war growth of the suburbs, at the expense of the cities, and in many cases the subsidized segregation of the races as contributing to this ongoing culture.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

It cannot be underestimated the post-war growth of the suburbs, at the expense of the cities, and in many cases the subsidized segregation of the races as contributing to this ongoing culture.

Right, but not only that. We have a culture of nonsense political rhetoric, disseminated via "media" and now accepted as fact. We even see this on SSP. Supposedly American cities are lawless and out of control, riots have burned them down, the "good people" have all fled to the Sunbelt, Covid has supposedly emptied them, etc.

Certain actors spread falsehoods, repeatedly, they're then internalized among most, then debunked. But it's too late. You throw a rock into the pond, and can retrieve the rock, but can't stop the waves. Much of America truly believes our metropolitan centers are Mad Max dystopias.

[M II A II R II K]

More Americans Are Leaving Cities, But Don’t Call It an Urban Exodus

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2.../?srnd=citylab

[dimondpark]

Manhattan and SF are very atypical movers tho-a lot of them "moved" but didnt really move.

[Manitopiaaa]

Is anyone else excited for 1 million+ Honolulu MSA? Because we're definitely getting it with Hawaii's undercount of 48,000 (Oahu/Honolulu MSA is at 975,000 in the 2019 estimates).

Looks like Fresno and Tulsa will also cross the finish line.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Certain actors spread falsehoods, repeatedly, they're then internalized among most, then debunked. But it's too late. You throw a rock into the pond, and can retrieve the rock, but can't stop the waves. Much of America truly believes our metropolitan centers are Mad Max dystopias.

You mean Chicago isn't a hellish warzone with roving bands of bloodthirsty criminals constantly on the prowl for fresh victims? Geez thanks, I was beginning to think the families playing in the park outside my window were a mirage, lol.

But you're right on with all of this. The "othering" of urban centers in recent years has been crazy. Remember the bellowing about the "Real America" all the way back in 2008? That slogan really massaged the brains of rural folks. Very interesting lessons for urban theory, history, and political science students in 100 years.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Handro

You mean Chicago isn't a hellish warzone with roving bands of bloodthirsty criminals constantly on the prowl for fresh victims? Geez thanks, I was beginning to think the families playing in the park outside my window were a mirage, lol.

But you're right on with all of this. The "othering" of urban centers in recent years has been crazy. Remember the bellowing about the "Real America" all the way back in 2008? That slogan really massaged the brains of rural folks. Very interesting lessons for urban theory, history, and political science students in 100 years.

I find it funny how much the right wing is demonizing Minneapolis as some sort of "new Detroit." Completely ignoring it's one of the whitest major cities in the country, it's highly integrated (as northern cities go) and it's been absolutely booming in terms of population growth.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I find it funny how much the right wing is demonizing Minneapolis as some sort of "new Detroit." Completely ignoring it's one of the whitest major cities in the country, it's highly integrated (as northern cities go) and it's been absolutely booming in terms of population growth.

Portland too, lol. Portland is probably the whitest major city in the country.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by TexasPlaya

[s] 4 million Californians moved to Texas over 10 years!!11 [s/]

Don't get your panties in a wad, folks. This was definitely sarcasm, and also a correct jab at all the whiny Texans who have been moaning incorrectly with feverish drama about all the Californians moving here. Thing is, those eastward Californians are but a small slice of the people moving to Texas. Plates I see often here - Arizona, Oklahoma, Colorado, Washington, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alabama, Florida, Minnesota, Michigan, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Tennessee, Ohio, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, Georgia, and yes, California.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by eschaton

I find it funny how much the right wing is demonizing Minneapolis as some sort of "new Detroit." Completely ignoring it's one of the whitest major cities in the country, it's highly integrated (as northern cities go) and it's been absolutely booming in terms of population growth.

here in the rustbelt, we're just relieved whenever the national media aims its anti-city ire in any direction other than chicago/detroit/st. louis/cleveland/etc.

but it's always only a short reprieve.

they'll soon be back to kick the usual suspects while they're down.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by Centropolis

thats ridiculously impressive by any measure.

also i have no idea if you made that up or not.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I wish because Biden would have won TX handily but no, the number of Californians that moved to Texas in the last decade was 687,000.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business/...n-last-decade/


Arizona gained around 500,000 Californians in the same period.

And so forth. WA, CO, UT, ID, NV etc. Californians are populating the west.

And still California still grew by 2.3 million

Impressive growth from the Great State of Texas. I've felt the Californians to Texas story has been pretty overplayed.

I think San Antonio will stop flying so much under the radar in the next few years. NW/N San Antonio is just as pretty as Austin Hill Country, if not prettier.

• Video Link

[JManc]

Originally Posted by Handro

You mean Chicago isn't a hellish warzone with roving bands of bloodthirsty criminals constantly on the prowl for fresh victims? Geez thanks, I was beginning to think the families playing in the park outside my window were a mirage, lol.

My wife and I last went to Chicago for XMas in 2019 and I don't how hard I had to try and convince my mom that where we stayed (N. Michigan Ave) was not Fallujah. She watches Fox and Fox lives in an alternate reality.