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  #9421  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 2:31 AM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
Essentially, anyone who still gives a single fuck about Covid is an idiot.

Lift all restrictions and eventually the people who have become phobic will come to their senses. But it’s time to stop waiting until everyone feels completely comfortable and won’t have their feelings hurt. See Australia.
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  #9422  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 5:09 AM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
Essentially, anyone who still gives a single fuck about Covid is an idiot.

Lift all restrictions and eventually the people who have become phobic will come to their senses. But it’s time to stop waiting until everyone feels completely comfortable and won’t have their feelings hurt. See Australia.
I hurt your feelings rather easily
There's a bunch of places that actually don't have restrictions.
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  #9423  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 7:21 AM
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Now that omicron has washed over the US, do you think there is literally anyone left in the US who isn't either vaccinated or had the virus (most of the US is both now). I can imagine that may be all she wrote for large scale death from Covid. We are seeing 3000 dead a day right now but I assume that is the last batch of the unvaccinated, unexposed population (and the very frail who die despite having been vaccinated/exposed previously). Unless some crazy new variant comes along that can be fatal in large numbers to vaccinated people and those who have already had the virus, in which case we would be back to square one. Barring that, it seems that omicron was basically a vaccine. A weakened form of the virus that was given to basically everyone.
How come you don't see conspiracy theorists out there saying that some scientist removed the protein that lets it attach to lung tissue and altered some proteins to make it insanely contagious so it "vaccinated" basically most of planet Earth in a couple of months. We need some more imagination from our conspiracists.
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  #9424  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 2:07 PM
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Originally Posted by CivicBlues View Post
And you seem to give the biggest fuck of all about people who still give a single fuck about COVID

What does that make you? A meta-idiot?
I care about these entirely unjustified restrictions and mandates, not about the virus. I’ve never given a shit about the virus.
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  #9425  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 4:14 PM
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Originally Posted by dave8721 View Post
We are seeing 3000 dead a day right now but I assume that is the last batch of the unvaccinated, unexposed population (and the very frail who die despite having been vaccinated/exposed previously).
It depends on the place but in some places, a covid death is just a death with a positive test, and a covid hospitalization is just a hospitalization with a positive covid test. If a 7 year old goes in for foot surgery and happens to test positive for covid, in covid hospital count is incremented by 1. If a cancer patient happens to test positive for covid 2 weeks before dying of cancer, they are a covid death. Anyone who goes into a hospital is screened and they go there for one problem or another.

This does not mean that there aren't people still getting seriously ill but I'm not sure there is a clear end point that will be indicated by the "headline" statistics given the way they work. Perhaps a more reasonable assessment would add some context or "control" in the form of all-cause mortality and mortality from other factors.
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  #9426  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 4:58 PM
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^ Right, and the effect of this is magnified by the fact that hospitals are a great place to acquire a contagious disease. Probably the best place, actually.

So not only would you expect some % of the population to have Covid over any 4-week period, but anyone undergoing inpatient treatment in a hospital will be more likely to have it than the population at large.
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  #9427  
Old Posted Feb 5, 2022, 10:54 PM
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It depends on the place but in some places, a covid death is just a death with a positive test, and a covid hospitalization is just a hospitalization with a positive covid test. If a 7 year old goes in for foot surgery and happens to test positive for covid, in covid hospital count is incremented by 1. If a cancer patient happens to test positive for covid 2 weeks before dying of cancer, they are a covid death. Anyone who goes into a hospital is screened and they go there for one problem or another.

This does not mean that there aren't people still getting seriously ill but I'm not sure there is a clear end point that will be indicated by the "headline" statistics given the way they work. Perhaps a more reasonable assessment would add some context or "control" in the form of all-cause mortality and mortality from other factors.
Excess mortality is probably the best indicator (which indicates that the US has likely been systematically undercounting COVID deaths but Canda may have been systematically overcounting, though maybe they're statistically consistent given the methodology). https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...deaths-tracker
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  #9428  
Old Posted Feb 6, 2022, 3:21 AM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
It depends on the place but in some places, a covid death is just a death with a positive test, and a covid hospitalization is just a hospitalization with a positive covid test. If a 7 year old goes in for foot surgery and happens to test positive for covid, in covid hospital count is incremented by 1. If a cancer patient happens to test positive for covid 2 weeks before dying of cancer, they are a covid death. Anyone who goes into a hospital is screened and they go there for one problem or another.

This does not mean that there aren't people still getting seriously ill but I'm not sure there is a clear end point that will be indicated by the "headline" statistics given the way they work. Perhaps a more reasonable assessment would add some context or "control" in the form of all-cause mortality and mortality from other factors.
Here in Louisiana, if someone tests positive within 6 weeks of the date of death, that person is counted as a COVID death. There are no other factors considered. Unfortunately, this elevates the numbers and causes confusion among the vaccinated, as the latest state data shows that 43% or 114 of the 265 COVID deaths registered were in vaccinated individuals during the week of 1/20-1/26. The state is currently 52% fully vaccinated.

The CDC excess death from COVID tracker has not registered a week with excess deaths since the week ending 11/20/21 despite consistently high COVID death numbers reported by the state. This indicates that COVID death totals have been over-inflated during this latest Omicron wave given the highly contagious nature of this variant amongst both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. https://public.tableau.com/shared/66RQSFTWD?:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&isplay_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y
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  #9429  
Old Posted Feb 6, 2022, 6:35 AM
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^ Based on excess deaths from the entire country and the fact that they are significantly below 100%, my guess is just that Louisiana is just very slow at tabulating. In fact, this is obvious if you look at https://github.com/TheEconomist/covi...027806ce29b636

The latest mortality figures from Lousiana. from several days ago, added deaths throughout 2021.



So basically the excess mortality data isn't that useful until months after the fact when everything is tabulated, unfortunately. (The CDC claims this in a big disclaimer on their website, saying that the data is perhaps 75% complete after 8 weeks but obviously some states are faster than others).
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  #9430  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2022, 2:02 PM
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Is anyone else finding it very strange that in the U.S., Omicron is almost over, but in Europe the decline seems to have stalled out?

I mean, the U.S. isn't alone in this. The rest of the Americas is also showing consistent declines, and Australia isn't doing badly either. But in Europe cases are either still rising or more-or-less stalled out. There are a few countries showing fairly big declines (Italy, Spain, France) but even here it's declining slower than the U.S.

What I think is happening is more heavily-enforced social distancing is prolonging Omicron. Which honestly is to be expected - that was the initial point of these policies, not to stop anyone from getting infected, but to stretch out the infections over time in order to stop hospital systems from being overwhelmed.

But the U.S. experience shows that a developed country can take the hospital load from Omicron. Hell, given the higher vaccination rates in most of Europe, one would think that most European countries would be able to deal with the hospital strain much more robustly.
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  #9431  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2022, 4:27 PM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Is anyone else finding it very strange that in the U.S., Omicron is almost over, but in Europe the decline seems to have stalled out?

I mean, the U.S. isn't alone in this. The rest of the Americas is also showing consistent declines, and Australia isn't doing badly either. But in Europe cases are either still rising or more-or-less stalled out. There are a few countries showing fairly big declines (Italy, Spain, France) but even here it's declining slower than the U.S.

What I think is happening is more heavily-enforced social distancing is prolonging Omicron. Which honestly is to be expected - that was the initial point of these policies, not to stop anyone from getting infected, but to stretch out the infections over time in order to stop hospital systems from being overwhelmed.

But the U.S. experience shows that a developed country can take the hospital load from Omicron. Hell, given the higher vaccination rates in most of Europe, one would think that most European countries would be able to deal with the hospital strain much more robustly.
I just spot checked a few EU countries. Germany just hit its peak last week, so I would attribute that to a delayed outbreak. Countries with earlier peaks, like France, appear to have similar curves to the U.S.
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  #9432  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2022, 4:34 PM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Is anyone else finding it very strange that in the U.S., Omicron is almost over, but in Europe the decline seems to have stalled out?

I mean, the U.S. isn't alone in this. The rest of the Americas is also showing consistent declines, and Australia isn't doing badly either. But in Europe cases are either still rising or more-or-less stalled out. There are a few countries showing fairly big declines (Italy, Spain, France) but even here it's declining slower than the U.S.

What I think is happening is more heavily-enforced social distancing is prolonging Omicron. Which honestly is to be expected - that was the initial point of these policies, not to stop anyone from getting infected, but to stretch out the infections over time in order to stop hospital systems from being overwhelmed.

But the U.S. experience shows that a developed country can take the hospital load from Omicron. Hell, given the higher vaccination rates in most of Europe, one would think that most European countries would be able to deal with the hospital strain much more robustly.
I wouldn't make one sweeping generalization about 26 countries, each with its own Covid strategy.

Many European countries are experiencing Omicron peaks higher and sharper than the US experienced. This shouldn't happen if they were successfully flattening the curve and, therefore, prolonging the wave, as you suggest.

The US and UK have strikingly similar Omicron curves. The US just lagged behind the UK. This doesn't say anything about their comparative policies, just that Omicron caught sooner in the UK.
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  #9433  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2022, 4:42 PM
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I wouldn't make one sweeping generalization about 26 countries, each with its own Covid strategy.

Many European countries are experiencing Omicron peaks higher and sharper than the US experienced. This shouldn't happen if they were successfully flattening the curve and, therefore, prolonging the wave, as you suggest.

The US and UK have strikingly similar Omicron curves. The US just lagged behind the UK. This doesn't say anything about their comparative policies, just that Omicron caught sooner in the UK.
The curves seem different to me.

In the U.S., cases seem to have peaked around January 14. Cases have steadily declined since then.

In the UK, cases peaked earlier - around January 2. However, the period of steep decline only lasted through to around January 17th or so. Cases have continued to fall, but very gradually. Thus even though the UK peaked almost two weeks earlier, it has a higher number of cases per 100,000 (122 vs 90).

If you compare the places first hit by COVID in the U.S. to the UK, it's even starker.

NYC - 33 per 100,000
DC - 35 per 100,000
Baltimore - 17 per 100,000
Cleveland - 16 per 100,000

London - varies by area, but seems in the range of 130 per 100,000. Cases actually seem to be rising slightly in a lot of subsections of London as well.

Differences in testing regimes could explain part of this of course - maybe the UK just tests more than the U.S., and thus catches more asymptomatic cases. However, one wouldn't have expected a big change in testing over the course of the last several weeks.
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  #9434  
Old Posted Feb 7, 2022, 5:50 PM
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In Europe the new B-2 variant is making its way thru which apparently is 5 times more contagious than Omicron B-1 and will probably start impacting numbers in the US in the coming weeks, I presume.
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  #9435  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2022, 4:44 AM
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Originally Posted by biguc View Post
I wouldn't make one sweeping generalization about 26 countries, each with its own Covid strategy.

Many European countries are experiencing Omicron peaks higher and sharper than the US experienced. This shouldn't happen if they were successfully flattening the curve and, therefore, prolonging the wave, as you suggest.

The US and UK have strikingly similar Omicron curves. The US just lagged behind the UK. This doesn't say anything about their comparative policies, just that Omicron caught sooner in the UK.
The US and UK have fewer restrictions than Europe, so they’re getting it over with, and with few adverse consequences. Countries that are stubbornly trying to hold back the ocean are dragging it out for longer.
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  #9436  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2022, 5:24 AM
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Originally Posted by dktshb View Post
In Europe the new B-2 variant is making its way thru which apparently is 5 times more contagious than Omicron B-1 and will probably start impacting numbers in the US in the coming weeks, I presume.
Well then, this shit is just gonna keep come through in waves.

But hopefully each new wave is less dangerous than the last.
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  #9437  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2022, 11:55 AM
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The US and UK have fewer restrictions than Europe, so they’re getting it over with, and with few adverse consequences. Countries that are stubbornly trying to hold back the ocean are dragging it out for longer.
What is this monolithic Europe with a policy of restrictions?

In Bulgaria they've basically acted like Covid never existed. Denmark recently ended all restrictions (while experiencing the biggest spike in registered cases on the continent).

Again, the high and fast spikes in cases in European countries don't correspond to the effects of "flattening the curve" you claim exist, nor do they correspond to the differing, country-by-country realities of restrictions.

At this point, I'd suggest looking at the spread of this virus like the weather: it's a chaotic system; we can point to proximate causes of local events, but broader predictability eludes us.

Blaming late European omicron waves on pan-European policy--even if that's actually what the data tell us--is like blaming a late European spring on European climate change initiatives.
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  #9438  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2022, 12:50 PM
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Because a judge struck down Illinois’ school mask mandate 2 days ago, schools everywhere are scrambling what to do.

I just got word from our superintendent that our school district will now make masks optional.

I know that my 12 year old will be happy, as he hates masks. My 10 year old never really minded them.
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  #9439  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2022, 1:42 PM
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Originally Posted by dktshb View Post
In Europe the new B-2 variant is making its way thru which apparently is 5 times more contagious than Omicron B-1 and will probably start impacting numbers in the US in the coming weeks, I presume.
I doubt this makes a big difference TBH unless prior infection with B-1 doesn't protect you from getting B-2. Since the U.S. case numbers are going down, over half of the country must have already been infected with Omicron (or are otherwise resistant).
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  #9440  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2022, 5:28 PM
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The US and UK have fewer restrictions than Europe, so they’re getting it over with, and with few adverse consequences. Countries that are stubbornly trying to hold back the ocean are dragging it out for longer.
Yes. 100% agree. Oregon claims it will drop the mask mandate in March. Hawaii, the state that relies on tourism will be dead last. I suspect mainland immigration with pick up steam.
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