Canada's 2022 Metro Area Population (CMA) estimates

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Docere

Commute to GTHA (2016)

Simcoe County (Barrie) 22.2%
Wellington County (Guelph) 14.7%
Niagara Region 13.5%
Waterloo Region (Kitchener) 6.3%

Simcoe is a few points short of "MSA" status, while Niagara and Wellington (I think) fall just short for CSA status.

CSA definition is if the % of employees in the county which work in the core counties + the percentage of employees in the county who commute from the core counties = 15%, it gets included in the CSA.

So basically all those counties would be included other than Waterloo, as I doubt that 8.7% of employees in Waterloo are commuting from Halton, Toronto, Peel, or Hamilton.

Honestly, it's likely slightly below the trigger to be in the CSA, at least as of 2016. Has anyone looked at the 2021 census data yet? It was released in November.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Yuri

No, GGH is not like US CSA at all. They are more like "Southern California", "Northeastern Ohio", a region. Commute rates between Kitchener and Toronto areas are incredibly low. Way way below the CSA threshold.

Kitchener is only 25 km from Guelph CMA, a metro you yourself include as part of Toronto.

Surely, there are more factors to consider beyond the strict definitions of a foreign statistics agency? The node nature of the GGH strongly encourages people live in the same place that they work, go to school, shop, or entertain themselves. People in Mississauga tend to stay in Mississauga, for instance. I also have a hard time believing that only 3% of people in KW commute to 'Toronto'. Did they include commutes from KW to Guelph CMA, Brantford CMA, and Hamilton CMA or just to Toronto CMA?

I largely agree with the other Canadian forum members that Toronto CMA + Hamilton CMA + Oshawa CMA corresponds to a US MSA but I also agree that the Greater Golden Horseshoe roughly corresponds to a US CSA. It's fine if you don't equate these things but they're not wrong. That said, it's all going to be moot in 10-15 years. The multi-billion dollar upgrade, expansion, and electrification of GO Transit will drastically increase commuting across the GGH. GO will be all day, every day, frequent, and 20+ minutes faster between KW and Union Station.


The key missing infrastructure is KW - Hamilton rail

https://www.cp24.com/news/ontario-se...5492225?cache=

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Docere

Oshawa is in Durham Region and hence part of the Greater Toronto Area.

25.3% of Hamilton residents commute to the GTA, which means it would meet the "MSA" threshold. Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area is also used.

yeah GTHA should be standard usage in 2023.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Nite

Who's comparing it to other metros, the GGH is a unique feature of Canada that no other region has such a concentration of large cities.
you are the only one who started to compare it to US CSA's

yes, but comparing to US population numbers (as is common here) is the basis and under the US definition, it would not be considered the same metro.

That said - remember that the US separates many metro areas into separate MSAs, like San Francisco and San Jose or Los Angeles and San Bernardino.

The GGH in increasingly much like the US northeast in that it's a pretty much continuously urbanized corridor from London to Peterborough with strong ties throughout, though not quite strong enough for the entire thing to be one single metro area.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

Toronto and it's surrounding area are on fire! Winnipeg is bigger than I thought.

I love seeing Winnipeg growing at a healthy rate. It's definitely an underrated Metro. Has so much good bones and fine residential stock since it boomed earlier than the likes of Calgary and Edmonton.
Hope to see it hit 1 Million by the time of the next census (I'm overly optimistic)

By 1891, Winnipeg was in the top 10 largest cities, and between 1911-1921 Winnipeg was actually the 3rd largest city in Canada!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ties_by_census

[Crawford]

Not a metro, notwithstanding the claims. Canada's Census has it right.

Toronto-Hamilton-Oshawa could plausibly be a U.S. CSA, however.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

yes, but comparing to US population numbers (as is common here) is the basis and under the US definition, it would not be considered the same metro.

That said - remember that the US separates many metro areas into separate MSAs, like San Francisco and San Jose or Los Angeles and San Bernardino.

The GGH in increasingly much like the US northeast in that it's a pretty much continuously urbanized corridor from London to Peterborough with strong ties throughout, though not quite strong enough for the entire thing to be one single metro area.

Insane when you think that, depending on where you draw the lines, the area has maybe 25-30% of the country's population.

EDIT: Though the Greater Golden Horseshoe isn't really that highly or densely populated by global standards. The factoid above simply underscores just how lightly populated or simply unpopulated most of Canada is.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Not so good for Montreal.

Have you seen the latest skyline shots of Montréal?
Also, they are building the REM (Réseau express métropolitain) Canada's most ambitious transit line that's considered "light metro" that will add another 67km of track to Montréal's rail transit.
Pre-pandemic years, Montréal's Metro (heavy rail modeled after Paris) regularly had higher ridership than Toronto's subway when looking at APTA transit stats from years back.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R%C3%A...%A9tropolitain

• Video Link

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Not a metro, notwithstanding the claims. Canada's Census has it right.

Toronto-Hamilton-Oshawa could plausibly be a U.S. CSA, however.

Toronto-Hamilton already meets the "MSA" threshold. Durham is part of the GTA and Hamilton surpassed the 25% for inclusion with Toronto.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

CSA definition is if the % of employees in the county which work in the core counties + the percentage of employees in the county who commute from the core counties = 15%, it gets included in the CSA.

So basically all those counties would be included other than Waterloo, as I doubt that 8.7% of employees in Waterloo are commuting from Halton, Toronto, Peel, or Hamilton.

Honestly, it's likely slightly below the trigger to be in the CSA, at least as of 2016. Has anyone looked at the 2021 census data yet? It was released in November.

Census Divisions (county equivalent), 2016:

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-r...NAMEE=&VNAMEF=

2021 commuting flow is available for municipalities, but not census divisions. If someone has a few hours to spare...

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=9810045901

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Dariusb

Toronto and it's surrounding area are on fire! Winnipeg is bigger than I thought.

Immigration is fueling Toronto's growth but record outflows from Toronto is fueling growth in the rest of the province and to a lesser degree to other provinces


TORONTO

Natural Increase: +21,100

Immigration: +216,205

Inter-Provincial: -21,388

Intra-Provincial: -78,077

TOTAL: +138,240 (+2.1%)



MONTREAL

Natural Increase: +10,728

Immigration: +62,314

Inter-Provincial: -5,406

Intra-Provincial: -29,480

TOTAL: +38,154 (+0.9%)



VANCOUVER

Natural Increase: +3,942

Immigration: +84,012

Inter-Provincial: +4,171

Intra-Provincial: -14,327

TOTAL: +77,798 (+2.8%)

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Nite

TORONTO

Natural Increase: +21,100

Immigration: +216,205

Inter-Provincial: -21,388

Intra-Provincial: -78,077

TOTAL: +138,240 (+2.1%)



MONTREAL

Natural Increase: +10,728

Immigration: +62,314

Inter-Provincial: -5,406

Intra-Provincial: -29,480

TOTAL: +38,154 (+0.9%)


)

Even accounting for population difference, the outflow out of Montreal is still proportionately less than for Toronto.

Now, I don't think that that's because Montrealers love their city way more than Torontonians do theirs.

I think it's more because the higher housing prices in Toronto make cashing out by selling a much more enticing prospect there than it is in Montreal.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even accounting for population difference, the outflow out of Montreal is still proportionately less than for Toronto.

Now, I don't think that that's because Montrealers love their city way more than Torontonians do theirs.

I think it's more because the higher housing prices in Toronto make cashing out by selling a much more enticing prospect there than it is in Montreal.

yes it is driven for the hunt for cheaper housing in the Toronto market.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Wigs

Hope to see it hit 1 Million by the time of the next census (I'm overly optimistic)

i wonder which of these three will be the next to cross over and become canada's 7th member of the 1 Million Club CMAs?

Winnipeg: 871,778

Québec: 848,776

Hamilton: 821,839


seems like a tight enough race that any of them could do it with the right hot streak.

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i wonder which of these three will be the next to cross over and become canada's 7th member of the 1 Million Club CMAs?

Winnipeg: 871,778

Québec: 848,776

Hamilton: 821,839


seems like a tight enough race that any of them could do it with the right hot streak.

As much as I love Hamilton and it's the closest Canadian Metro (adjacent to Niagara) I want Winnipeg to be the first. They need it more for their psyche.

Remember The Simpsons episode: "I was born in Winnipeg, what's your excuse"

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i wonder which of these three will be the next to cross over and become canada's 7th member of the 1 Million Club CMAs?

Winnipeg: 871,778

Québec: 848,776

Hamilton: 821,839


seems like a tight enough race that any of them could do it with the right hot streak.

none of them are particularly close. It'll likely be Winnipeg if I had to guess, but likely won't happen for a decade or two at least. All three are relatively slow growers by Canadian standards.

Honestly, once Winnipeg crosses the line, I suspect the other two will follow fairly shortly. It's just not going to happen until likely the early to mid 2030's.

One way of it happening sooner is if they can add municipalities to their CMA's. Hamilton may be able to pull in Haldimand County at some point. which is about 50,000 people.. but it will be tough. Not sure if Quebec could pull in towns like Sainte Marie or Montmagny which could accelerate it. Winnipeg is already a fairly large CMA, but I could see it pulling Steinbach into it's CMA, which would likely add another 20-30,000 people.

My guess would be we see at least one of them pass the mark by the 2031 Census, but I doubt it'll happen in 2026.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

i wonder which of these three will be the next to cross over and become canada's 7th member of the 1 Million Club CMAs?

Winnipeg: 871,778

Québec: 848,776

Hamilton: 821,839


seems like a tight enough race that any of them could do it with the right hot streak.

Main factors for each of them:

Winnipeg: biggest city in the province by far and the Manitoba government controls its immigration intake to some degree and routes most newcomers to Winnipeg

Quebec City: gets the lowest number of immigrants of any major Canadian city, in large part due to being totally overshadowed by Montreal where most immigrants to the province go

Hamilton: close to Toronto which is both a good and bad thing - can benefit for overspill but is also overshadowed as a destination city; I've never thought the benefits of being close to Toronto truly materialized for it in terms of growth

My money is on Winnipeg.

[Nite]

As noted in the Canada forum, the real winner and region with the fastest growing cities is Atlantic Canada ( Halifax and Moncton were the fastest growing CMA's in the country)

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

The Big Seven in Atlantic Canada (2022 vs 2021)

Halifax - 480,582 (+20,713)
St. John's - 219,119 (+4,852)
Moncton - 171,608 (+8,784)
Saint John - 135,622 (+2,861)
Fredericton - 116,159 (+3,731)
Sydney (CBRM) - 98,821 (+872)
Charlottetown - 86,865 (+3,484)

and with the 2021 CMA boundaries, Halifax is already at 505K ( for some reason statscan is using the 2016 CMA boundaries for this estimate)

[Docere]

Guelph (Wellington County) would be its own MSA. But it may be included with Kitchener-Waterloo rather than GTHA in a CSA since the commuting interchange is higher?

Place of work

GTHA 14.7%
Waterloo 11.1%

Place of residence

GTHA 4.9%
Waterloo 16.6%

[Wigs]

Acajack, once the Tramway de Québec is completed, the city's growth might accelerate rapidly with TOD development (midrise/high rise/mixed-use) going wild.