The Vancouver Market Guessing Game

[Vin]

Not sure where to put this, but this audio podcast from BIV is interesting: good to listen to while at work.


Foreign capital flying from YVR to SEA real estate
https://biv.com/audio/2019/11/foreig...v-today-no-366

[rofina]

Originally Posted by misher

I made a mistake and didn't answer the questions.

The questions:

1. Where do you see the market 12 months from today? Lets focus on price, that's all that anyone cares. Benchmark, average, whatever.
-In 12 months I expect the average price to have gone up around 5-10%. Possibly more depending on what happens, there's a lot of factors. Likely stress test will have been modified or removed, China trade war will hopefully be settled and Meng released, and a few other things look good. However, there's a decent change something bad may happen in the world.

2. Where are we in the cycle? Predict a bottom!
-I'd say we're close to the bottom with maybe 3% more to go down in prices.

3. The long shot - when will YVR RE mark a new high?
Highest prices will happen when the FBT is removed and/or the Liberals regain power for a year. Both are likely to happen but it'll be a while. After either happens there will be a steady rise above inflation.

Year to the day everyone. I suppose it would have been smarter of me to start this this thread on the 4th or 5th, so stats can be readily available.

That being said, safe to say that despite a global pandemic Misher is closest to the goal.

I will revisit this in early June when the REBGV stats are out.

[misher]

Originally Posted by rofina

Year to the day everyone. I suppose it would have been smarter of me to start this this thread on the 4th or 5th, so stats can be readily available.

That being said, safe to say that despite a global pandemic Misher is closest to the goal.

I will revisit this in early June when the REBGV stats are out.

Hah thanks. Of course no one predicted the virus outbreak....I would say I look a lot more accurate if we're looking at the market in Feb/Early march.
I was right about the Stress test too, it was about to be modified until they put it on pause due to the virus.

Had hoped Meng would go faster.

Looks like our trade dispute with China is small cheese now, Aussie and USA getting the flak. We may even benefit from it. US trade deal was going to hurt us for their benefit. Had thought that the FBT tax case would do better. Can't predict them all.

[dreambrother808]

Originally Posted by misher

Had hoped Meng would go faster..

I’ve suspected that the Meng issue is all on American terms. They have forced Canada into this position as a proxy in their battle with China. They want to delay the extradition because it makes us take the blowback instead of them. We have agreed to it because they are threatening or offering something in return. Is this how others perceive the issue?

[misher]

Originally Posted by dreambrother808

I’ve suspected that the Meng issue is all on American terms. They have forced Canada into this position as a proxy in their battle with China. They want to delay the extradition because it makes us take the blowback instead of them. We have agreed to it because they are threatening or offering something in return. Is this how others perceive the issue?

Naaa I’ve dealt with a legal case before. Years for a case is not surprising. Our legal system needs a huge revamp. Sweden does cases in less than a year.

I've noticed some large sales 5-10% over assessment in the past 2 weeks in Richmond. No idea if thats an indicator of something,

[misher]

Remax probably has the most likely prediction:

Vancouver real estate is fluctuating from week to week, not just on seller side but also on agent side as well. People are re-emerging, with RE/MAX reporting lots of new inventory and many multiple offers, not just on $500,000 condos but those priced in the $2-3 million range as well. and. Perception is that now with easing of restrictions, people are more confident that things are moving in the right direction.

It’s possible to have high unemployment, yet a very strong real estate market. Unemployment appears to be having a greater impact on lower earners, and with the region’s high real estate prices, homebuyers are typically those in the higher income bracket.

Vancouver Realtors who were initially fearful are back in business, and an 18-per-cent decline in Vancouver housing values – or anything close to that – is highly unlikely. A five-per-cent price correction is more likely.

https://blog.remax.ca/no-nosedive-ah...prices-re-max/

[Lexus]

Sorry, no 1, 2, 3.

I just wonder how many people will remain working remotely and decide to live somewhere outside Vancouver even after Covid-19 is over. We have MicroSoft, Amazon, Apple and many other IT companies in downtown that are easier shiftIng into working remotely from home.

[rofina]

Bringing this one back. Kind of fun to see where we were all at.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

1) Average down 10% (May 2020)
2) Aug 2021
3) Spring 2026

I played the long game and COVID beat me like a rented mule.

What are the actual answers though?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I played the long game and COVID beat me like a rented mule.

What are the actual answers though?

Detached homes, REBGV (so Metro without Surrey)
May 2019 $1,421,900
May 2020 $1,456,700 (1 year +$34,800, +2.4%)
May 2021 $1,800,600 (1 year +$343,900, +23.6%)
(another $49,900 higher in October)

Apartments
May 2019 $664,200
May 2020 $686,500 (1 year +$22,300, +3.4%)
May 2021 $737,100 (1 year +$50,600, +7.4%)
(another $9,300 higher in October)

[GenWhy?]

2019 seems like 20 years ago. Why were people on here saying prices would go down?

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

2019 seems like 20 years ago. Why were people on here saying prices would go down?

Interest rates were on the rise over 2018 for one.

[GenWhy?]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Interest rates were on the rise over 2018 for one.

HA! Oh yea I remember being so happy about that... "before times"

[rofina]

Originally Posted by GenWhy?

2019 seems like 20 years ago. Why were people on here saying prices would go down?

2019 legitimately feels like " a different time, long ago."

Listings were growing, few months of price declines were already logged, interest rates were (in hindsight peaking) climbing.

It seemed like a reasonable time for a correction, after the insanity (a rounding error after 2020) of the market from 2016 onwards.

For all the hate he got, Misher was by far the closest.