Vancouver Real Estate 'Bubble' at 30-year Peak

[CivicBlues]

"buu buut but, the Chinese are buying up all the condos on the east side too! I went to a showing and I was the only White person theere!!" -- Whatnext, probably

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by Alex Mackinnon

You're not allowed to consume back yard chickens in Vancouver FYI. They're just for eggs, not meat.

Thats also like saying its illegal to use drugs in public but you see people doing it all day long.


Of course all the chickens get eaten after a year of laying eggs. WHere do you think home made chicken soup comes from

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by TheTerminalCity

Unbelievable that the local government didn't foresee this pandemic. Guess S&P and Moody's were both hoodwinked when they offered up Aaa ratings to the City. Perhaps if Council had been more aggressive about getting luxury brands in malls this could've been okay....

what does $5000 handbags have to do with taxes collected

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by rofina

This is a a bit of dead horse.

Its pretty obvious the market here is bifurcated and has been for a long time.
The last couple years of a downturn, and the rebound that started last summer proved this beyond doubt.

What happens to WestSide SFH, as it turns out, has little to do with $500k condos on the East Side.

Different buyers. Different markets. Same city.

One totally effects the other. The article noted "According to findings from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CHMC), 11% of metro Vancouver condos are owned by a non-resident."

We know that 5% is enought to move the market, so buyers willing to pay a premium for a safe space to park money will drag prices up throughout Metro. Even if the majority of those condos are downtown, the price inflation pushes previous downtown buyers out to the East Side, to Burnaby etc where they set off the cycle there. Look no further than the 1000 blockof Barclay Street, where resonably affordable condos and rentals were snapped up for a ridiculous price by developers, because they knew they could find foreign buyers for their expensive new units.

[cairnstone]

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

"buu buut but, the Chinese are buying up all the condos on the east side too! I went to a showing and I was the only White person theere!!" -- Whatnext, probably

Just because they look asian does not mean they are. Vancouver has a huge population of Asian Canadians. Many came in the 90's and are very successful Canadians.

[CivicBlues]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Just because they look asian does not mean they are. Vancouver has a huge population of Asian Canadians. Many came in the 90's and are very successful Canadians.

Read my post again, I'm in 100% agreement with you there. But I think Whatnext missed the memo.

Also, not all of us just arrived in the 90s. My family's been here since the early 60s and more than a few others have been here since the 1800s.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Just because they look asian does not mean they are. Vancouver has a huge population of Asian Canadians. Many came in the 90's and are very successful Canadians.

Also the 90s as in the 1890s.

[TheTerminalCity]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

what does $5000 handbags have to do with taxes collected

Oh not a thing. Just referring to Vin's predilection for malls as the peak of modern urbanism

[misher]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Just because they look asian does not mean they are. Vancouver has a huge population of Asian Canadians. Many came in the 90's and are very successful Canadians.

I do wonder how many Filipinos, Japanese, Koreans, and SE Asians are mistaken for Chinese.

The Philippines is Canada's #1 source of immigration. Yet the only two ethnicities that get discussed in the housing context are Chinese and Indians.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by cairnstone

Just because they look asian does not mean they are. Vancouver has a huge population of Asian Canadians. Many came in the 90's and are very successful Canadians.

Originally Posted by CivicBlues

Read my post again, I'm in 100% agreement with you there. But I think Whatnext missed the memo.

Also, not all of us just arrived in the 90s. My family's been here since the early 60s and more than a few others have been here since the 1800s.

Seventies and Eighties too, though not in big waves.

I will point out that it's very easy these days to gain perm res status and then spend the next ten years on the other side of the pond, but we've already got the EHT for that.

[BurnabyReno]

It feels like every other day you read something about it being a good time to get into the real estate game in Vancouver. I wouldn't mind if housing prices go down but more worried about everything else that's going on right now....

[misher]

RBC is predicting the market will pickup in June per its April 15th update. Likely a combination of factors behind this the largest being low interest rates (likely to get much lower should mortgage defaults not rise significantly) and the fact that Canada seems to be on schedule to recover swiftly from this virus. Of course government stimulus flooding the economy helps a lot. In the end this has mostly impacted the service industry and as someone on this forum pointed out they rarely buy RE anyway. The wealthy will generally do ok due to the 40k loan and 75% wage subsidy. Employment recovery will be a huge factor.

“The longer unemployment stays high, the slower the housing market recovery will be. Our current view is the recovery will stretch into 2021 in most markets,” Hogue noted.

Hogue also said that the chances of a significant drop in prices are “still low”.

“Despite the rough patch ahead, we expect property values to generally hold up,” Hogue stated.

According to Hogue, the tight supply of housing in major markets will “provide some cushion against a correction”.

https://www.straight.com/news/summer...t-robert-hogue

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by misher

RBC is predicting the market will pickup in June per its April 15th update. Likely a combination of factors behind this the largest being low interest rates (likely to get much lower should mortgage defaults not rise significantly) and the fact that Canada seems to be on schedule to recover swiftly from this virus. Of course government stimulus flooding the economy helps a lot. In the end this has mostly impacted the service industry and as someone on this forum pointed out they rarely buy RE anyway. The wealthy will generally do ok due to the 40k loan and 75% wage subsidy. Employment recovery will be a huge factor.

Nobody has any clue what will happen. Any predictions need to be taken with a ton of salt.

[Vin]

Originally Posted by TheTerminalCity

Oh not a thing. Just referring to Vin's predilection for malls as the peak of modern urbanism

Yes, indeed. "Modern urbanism" from the 1800s.

https://www.europeanbestdestinations...ers-in-europe/

[Sheba]

COVID-19 crisis set to hammer Metro Vancouver’s housing prices

The official, optimistic message from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver at first sounds plausible.

The REBGV maintains with confidence that “pent-up demand” for housing, combined with low interest rates, will re-energize Metro Vancouver’s dormant real estate market once the COVID-19 lockdown ends and real life again kicks in.

But the counter-arguments are almost too numerous to mention. Coronavirus shutdowns are hammering the factors that most fuel housing prices in Canada: Wages, household debt and migration-based population growth.

The real-estate industry, including construction, normally makes up Canada’s largest sector, accounting for 15 per cent of economic output. And it’s almost inconceivable real-estate values will not be slammed by the multitudinous ways the lockdown has weakened the finances of both Canadians and the trans-national migrants who invest in housing in Vancouver, Toronto and Victoria. Australia is already providing early-warning signs.

...

[misher]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Nobody has any clue what will happen. Any predictions need to be taken with a ton of salt.

Yep. Should things go well prices should go up in Q4 of 2020 although what the bottom is they are rising from is debated. Between then and now we could see a decrease, possibly a significant one.

[scryer]

Nothing that we didn't already know but still interesting nonetheless:

How Singapore Solved Housing

[misher]

An interesting graph. Since the average person cannot afford to buy a house I prefer to look at rent as the measure of affordability. Interestingly enough unsheltered homeless seem to have skyrocketed after the NDP but I assume there's a reason that's unrelated.

Btw the article discusses Vancouver's plan to speed up approvals signifigantly.





https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanc...gy-coronavirus

[Changing City]

Looks like about 1,100 sales in April for REBGV, the lowest April number on record. Listings are similarly dropping off a cliff - 60% lower than a year ago.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Looks like about 1,100 sales in April for REBGV, the lowest April number on record. Listings are similarly dropping off a cliff - 60% lower than a year ago.

And wouldn't many of those sales have actually been made in March, and only closed in April? Feel sorry for those buyers.