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  #1941  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2018, 2:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
France isn't California. HSR makes a ton of sense in France; it makes little sense in California.
Sigh

This is just incorrect

Reminds me of "people will never buy stuff online when they can just go to the store to get it..."
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  #1942  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2018, 2:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Busy Bee View Post
Sigh

This is just incorrect

Reminds me of "people will never buy stuff online when they can just go to the store to get it..."
Not sure what your quote has to do with anything.

Do you want me to outline the myriad ways that place matters when it comes to transit ridership? This isn't difficult stuff, folks.

1. LA has a greater population than Paris but like 1/30 the regional rail ridership. How about that for a start?
2. France has extremely expensive gas and extremely expensive toll roads everywhere; California has cheap gas and free roads.
3. France has the highest tax burden in the Eurozone, which pays for deeply subsidized transit; the U.S. has very low income taxes.
4. California has basically twice the household income as France. A huge proportion of French take transit because they have no other choice.
5. California is extremely sprawled and decentralized, France is hypercentralized in comparison, making rail service logical.

This will fail. It might get built, but it will never have strong ridership.
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  #1943  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2018, 3:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Not sure what your quote has to do with anything.

Do you want me to outline the myriad ways that place matters when it comes to transit ridership? This isn't difficult stuff, folks.

1. LA has a greater population than Paris but like 1/30 the regional rail ridership. How about that for a start?
2. France has extremely expensive gas and extremely expensive toll roads everywhere; California has cheap gas and free roads.
3. France has the highest tax burden in the Eurozone, which pays for deeply subsidized transit; the U.S. has very low income taxes.
4. California has basically twice the household income as France. A huge proportion of French take transit because they have no other choice.
5. California is extremely sprawled and decentralized, France is hypercentralized in comparison, making rail service logical.

This will fail. It might get built, but it will never have strong ridership.
My household income is multiples of California’s, and I would never choose a 7 hour drive over a 2 hour (and 10 minutes, to be precise) train. Not even if tolls were eliminated and gas was free.

And anyway, leisure and business travellers are not a representative sample of the general population. Aside from students, there are few people taking a TGV (let alone the Eurostar) who couldn’t afford a car.

In fact, I would (and often do) pay a premium to take the train over flying. When you factor in travel time (and cost) to the airport, additional security procedures, checked baggage (not alone, but try getting a woman to travel for more than 3 days with carry-on), and potential delays, high speed rail is faster than flying up to at least 400 (and probably 500). It’s also more comfortable, and when was the last time you were on a plane with a bar car?

As for the “centralization” argument... of course, this has no bearing on the convenience of the train vs. flying. In fact when I get to Bordeaux, I’m picking up a rental car at the train station just as one would at the airport. All of the big train stations in Europe have locations for the major rental car companies.

When it comes to the train vs driving argument, I once might have agreed with you. But beyond the MASSIVE time savings involved (again, it’s a 2h10m train or a 7 hour drive), the need to have a car at your destination is quickly being eliminated by Uber. Self-driving cars are only going to make private cars more superfluous for leisure and business travellers alike.

You also picked a fairly bad example to argue... an Angeleno visiting SF isn’t going to want to pay for parking in the City, and a San Franciscan visiting LA probably doesn’t own a car and would have to rent one.
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  #1944  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2018, 4:24 PM
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Crawford:
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5. California is extremely sprawled and decentralized, France is hypercentralized in comparison, making rail service logical.
This is a bit old but California is pretty dense, especially considering that most of the state's population lives in the corridor along the coast, whereas 2/3 of the state is mountains and desert in the east. The article below is from 2011. California has only grown denser since that time, and proposed statewide zoning changes will make it even denser still.

The LA-OC metropolitan region is also the densest in the United States because, although sprawling, it is very dense sprawl.

"The Census Bureau has population density data. Worldatlas.com's numbers are slightly different, but they're in a searchable database. That data shows California's population density ranks 11th in the U.S., at 239 people per square mile. (It's 13th if you include the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico, as the Census Bureau does; the atlas doesn't.)

The densest state is New Jersey, with 1,195 people per square mile. Of the 10 states that are denser than California, eight are in the Northeast and are served by Amtrak. The other two are Ohio and Florida, the states that were offered federal rail funds but refused.

If California were a nation, it would rank 83rd in terms of population density, behind Spain and Turkey (both 241)..."

http://abc7news.com/archive/8203634/
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  #1945  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2018, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
5. California is extremely sprawled and decentralized, France is hypercentralized in comparison, making rail service logical.
Can we PLEASE put this to rest? Unlike France or most of Europe, California is EXTREMELY centralized, it has NO rural population, 99% of people live in the big metro areas.
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  #1946  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 1:27 AM
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The naysayers need to stop saying that nobody will ride a high speed train through California.

California should have high-speed rail; it would obviously be an alternative to driving and flying.

California is a huge state. Not the biggest in area, of course, but still pretty big:


Reddit

When I drive from Los Angeles to visit my sister in Chico, on the east coast, it's the equivalent of driving through several states!

And since someone brought up France, for shits and giggles, I'm gonna post this, from Newsweek a few years ago:



http://www.newsweek.com/economic-out...-france-467614

I think the state with the largest economy in the US deserves something that would only add to its economy; I don't see why high speed rail couldn't also be used to transport goods, and mail, and packages too, not just people.
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  #1947  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 1:28 AM
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Originally Posted by yakumoto View Post
Can we PLEASE put this to rest? Unlike France or most of Europe, California is EXTREMELY centralized, it has NO rural population, 99% of people live in the big metro areas.
Paris has 8x the population density of Los Angeles. And as mentioned before the commuter rail system and subway system there make a mockery of Los Angeles. The idea that California is in any way comparable is ridiculous.
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  #1948  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 2:00 AM
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Paris' Metro and Los Angeles' Metro Rail compared at the same scale:

Los Angeles

humantransit.org

Paris

humantransit.org

To be fair, the Paris map doesn't include the RER; LA's map is way outdated, it doesn't include the Gold Line extension to Azusa or East LA, nor does it include the Expo Line or the Orange Line Busway, which can be converted to light rail at a later date (and actually goes out of frame in this example), nor does LA's map include the commuter rail Metrolink, which has a system length of 534 miles (!).

But you can see that Paris' Metro is basically at the core of the city and covers a small area, albeit with many lines and stops; LA's Metro Rail, though very sparse in comparison with how many lines it has, travels through much longer geographical distances than Paris' Metro.

And of course, several American cities can fit within Los Angeles' city limits. LA is huge in area.

metro.net
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  #1949  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 2:50 AM
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Originally Posted by sopas ej View Post

[url]http://www.newsweek.com/economic-output-if-states-were-countries-california-would-be-france-467614[/url
Minnesota having a matching GDP with Norway is so beautifully perfect
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  #1950  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 3:41 AM
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Lightbulb

The State of California having the same GDP as France doesn't mean it has the same financial resources as France. Or does it?
California's State budget in 2017-2018 was ~$125 Billion
France's budget in 2017 was $134 Billion (~109 Billion Euros)

Why does California need any matching Federal funds for HSR?

Maybe France is better at making its' expenditures match its' revenues..

Sources of data:
http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2017-18/pd...maryCharts.pdf
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...akdown-france/
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  #1951  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 3:50 AM
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Originally Posted by electricron View Post
The State of California having the same GDP as France doesn't mean it has the same financial resources as France. Or does it?
California's State budget in 2017-2018 was ~$125 Billion
France's budget in 2017 was $134 Billion (~109 Billion Euros)

Why does California need any matching Federal funds for HSR?

Maybe France is better at making its' expenditures match its' revenues..

Sources of data:
http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2017-18/pd...maryCharts.pdf
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...akdown-france/
Because we said so and there's nothing the dumb redneck states can do about it.
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  #1952  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 4:17 AM
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Originally Posted by electricron View Post
The State of California having the same GDP as France doesn't mean it has the same financial resources as France. Or does it?
California's State budget in 2017-2018 was ~$125 Billion
France's budget in 2017 was $134 Billion (~109 Billion Euros)

Why does California need any matching Federal funds for HSR?

Maybe France is better at making its' expenditures match its' revenues..

Sources of data:
http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2017-18/pd...maryCharts.pdf
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...akdown-france/
So I guess the Texas HSR didn't get matching federal funds? Its almost like we need a pro/anti CA hsr thread. Are other transportation threads like this littered with this many naysayers? It seems like for the other projects, people say "oh cool" and "lets see some renderings".
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  #1953  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 5:52 AM
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So I guess the Texas HSR didn't get matching federal funds? Its almost like we need a pro/anti CA hsr thread. Are other transportation threads like this littered with this many naysayers? It seems like for the other projects, people say "oh cool" and "lets see some renderings".
There were two separate threads not long ago, one for construction updates and one for the politics. They were merged together, for better or worse.

It definitely is tiresome. Up here in the North Bay, there were many naysayers who said the SMART commuter rail line would flop. Of course it’s been a success.
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  #1954  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 7:21 AM
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Originally Posted by electricron View Post
The State of California having the same GDP as France doesn't mean it has the same financial resources as France. Or does it?
California's State budget in 2017-2018 was ~$125 Billion
France's budget in 2017 was $134 Billion (~109 Billion Euros)

Why does California need any matching Federal funds for HSR?

Maybe France is better at making its' expenditures match its' revenues..

Sources of data:
http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/2017-18/pd...maryCharts.pdf
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...akdown-france/
Stop peddling false numbers again. Re-read your source. Your $134 billion figure is actually the top 2-4 spending elements and should be in euros ($165 billion). The actual total of all spending shows the French budget is 424 billion euros ($522 billion USD), or 314 billion euros ($389 billion USD) if you exclude tax refunds.

The residents of France and the companies in France pay most of their taxes to the French central government.
The residents of California and the companies in California pay most of their taxes to the US central government.
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  #1955  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 12:53 PM
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Originally Posted by numble View Post
Stop peddling false numbers again. Re-read your source. Your $134 billion figure is actually the top 2-4 spending elements and should be in euros ($165 billion). The actual total of all spending shows the French budget is 424 billion euros ($522 billion USD), or 314 billion euros ($389 billion USD) if you exclude tax refunds.

The residents of France and the companies in France pay most of their taxes to the French central government.
The residents of California and the companies in California pay most of their taxes to the US central government.
Excellent points you made.
The top line was 109 billion euros, which is $134 billion.

Sorry I mislead the web page that badly. I thought the top line was the total last night, but it's not. But at least I did provide a link so you can check it out....and point out my error.

Adding up all the lines listed on my link does not come close to your number, only to ~ 290 billion Euros, which converts to $357 billion. Where did you find the 424 billion Euro number?

But the point that France collects and distributes tax revenues differently than the USA is true. But California does not have to finance national defense nor national society security retirement benefits - which consumes a major part of the USA's budget. So not only do the two countries collect revenues differently, they also allocate the revenues differently.

Which, to keep this reply on topic, should bring us back to the question on how France finances HSR projects? Does it have a budget and is it expected to keep to it? Has it ever faced 200% cost overruns? How close operationally is it at making a profit?
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  #1956  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 2:42 PM
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My household income is multiples of California’s, and I would never choose a 7 hour drive over a 2 hour (and 10 minutes, to be precise) train. Not even if tolls were eliminated and gas was free.
I do it all the time in Europe, and don't see why it's so difficult. If your destination isn't near a HSR line, it makes little sense to not take a car. Obviously if you're going city center to city center, it makes total sense. Obviously you aren't driving to Bordeaux because it's a super-far and there's a super-fast train right to your destination.
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And anyway, leisure and business travellers are not a representative sample of the general population. Aside from students, there are few people taking a TGV (let alone the Eurostar) who couldn’t afford a car.
I would be surprised if this were true. 2nd class HSR in Europe is dirt cheap, and I've had the "pleasure" of sitting next to folks who seemed to be borderline destitute (migrants with dufflebags of smelly foodstuffs, people with obvious cleanliness issues, etc.). It's like the Greyhound crowd in the U.S. I only ride 1st class now just to avoid annoying fellow passengers.
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You also picked a fairly bad example to argue... an Angeleno visiting SF isn’t going to want to pay for parking in the City, and a San Franciscan visiting LA probably doesn’t own a car and would have to rent one.
But an Angeleno visiting SF isn't headed downtown, and a San Franciscan visiting LA isn't headed downtown. That's that biggest reason why HSR in CA is destined to fail. Fixed point transit only works when people are headed to a concentrated geography. In Europe, most folks are traveling between cores.

SF (the city alone) has much higher car ownership than any city in Europe, BTW. And it's only 10% of the Bay Area, which is more car oriented than any metro on earth outside the U.S.

The only reason the Acela even works is because NYC is at the center. If NYC were positioned where Boston or DC were located, even Acela would fail, because you wouldn't have millions of transit-dependent folks at the hub of the line. The U.S. is much too decentralized to draw comparisons with Europe.
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  #1957  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 2:46 PM
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Originally Posted by yakumoto View Post
Can we PLEASE put this to rest? Unlike France or most of Europe, California is EXTREMELY centralized, it has NO rural population, 99% of people live in the big metro areas.
California is like 100x more sprawled than anywhere in Europe. If you think CA is "centralized" and Europe is comparatively "sprawled" you have obviously never been to either place.

Something like 5% of jobs in LA CSA are in/around downtown. Like 90% of CA lives in postwar sprawl; in Europe the share might be 10%.
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  #1958  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 2:50 PM
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Originally Posted by 202_Cyclist View Post
Crawford:

This is a bit old but California is pretty dense, especially considering that most of the state's population lives in the corridor along the coast, whereas 2/3 of the state is mountains and desert in the east. The article below is from 2011. California has only grown denser since that time, and proposed statewide zoning changes will make it even denser still.
Relative density has nothing to do with anything. LA is indeed dense for U.S. standards, but it's meaningless. Rail transit share in LA CSA is basically 0, and overall transit share has actually dropped in recent years, despite megabillions in new lines..

The idea that this will magically change and LA becomes Paris if you spend $100 billion on another line is pretty much crazy.
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  #1959  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 4:14 PM
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How much did it cost to build a single HSR line in France? Was it more or less than $100 billion?
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  #1960  
Old Posted Mar 30, 2018, 6:23 PM
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Originally Posted by northbay View Post
There were two separate threads not long ago, one for construction updates and one for the politics. They were merged together, for better or worse.

It definitely is tiresome. Up here in the North Bay, there were many naysayers who said the SMART commuter rail line would flop. Of course it’s been a success.
I'd say they are NIMBYS but look at their locations....either not in the state or not in the current areas with construction. Instead of people going out and taking pictures of contstruction (like what normally happens here!) we have people saying "it won't get built". Even though there's 100+ miles of construction, not including the electrification of Caltrain.
SMART deserves a thread of its own
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