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  #5401  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 6:40 PM
muertecaza muertecaza is offline
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Originally Posted by woodrow View Post
Does anyone personally know anyone with vaccine hesitancy? I might have a cousin or two I haven't talked to in years, but I don't have a single close family member, friend, dentist, hair dresser, barista, etc. who either hasn't gotten the shot or is anxiously waiting to get one. I am curious if anyone has friends, family, colleagues, etc. who are not planning on getting a shot and if so are you going to encourage them to change their? More vaccinations, less variants.
My mother-in-law is beyond hesitant. She's the type that sends me Sherri Tenpenny videos she found on Facebook. It has been quite discouraging. We've been able to have someone frank conversations with her about vaccines, but the conversations end up being a constant moving of the goalposts--it's either that they are too new and untested, or they cause cancer, or they will damage our immune systems, or the virus isn't even a big deal, etc. etc. I'm not going to be able to change her mind. And honestly at this point I'm less worried about her getting COVID than I am about what it says about her worldview in general when she's buying what people like the Tenpenny lady are selling.
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  #5402  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 6:55 PM
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At last some concrete data:

Quote:
CDC Identifies Small Group of Covid-19 Infections Among Fully Vaccinated Patients
By Robbie Whelan
April 15, 2021 8:37 am ET

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has identified a small cohort of approximately 5,800 cases of Covid-19 infection among more than 66 million Americans who have completed a full course of vaccination.

These so-called breakthrough cases, which are defined as positive Covid-19 test results received at least two weeks after patients receive their final vaccine dose, represent 0.008% of the fully vaccinated population.

Officials said such cases are in line with expectations because the approved vaccines in the U.S. are highly effective but not 100% foolproof. They are a reminder that even vaccinated people are at risk and should continue to take precautions such as masking and social distancing in many circumstances . . . .

The Wall Street Journal contacted health departments in all 50 states and the District of Columbia to ask how many breakthrough cases had been identified. Twenty-three states responded, reporting a total of 4,172 breakthrough cases.

One area of focus for the CDC is conducting genomic sequencing on respiratory samples from patients with breakthrough cases, so that the agency can track genetic variants of the coronavirus for clues as to how they interact with the vaccines. Public-health officials are studying whether certain mutations of the coronavirus are more resistant to vaccine-based immunity.

The CDC has established a database to record details of each breakthrough case, including patient demographics, geographic location, time since vaccination, vaccine type and virus lineage
. . . .

Of the breakthrough cases identified by the CDC, more than 40% occurred in people older than 60, while 65% of the cases were in female patients, according to Tom Clark, leader of the vaccine evaluation team at the federal agency. The CDC found that 29% of breakthrough infections were asymptomatic and 7% of patients experiencing a breakthrough infection were hospitalized. So far, 74 people have died after experiencing breakthrough infections. The agency is expected to publish some of these findings next week . . . .

Currently there are five variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus circulating in the U.S., several of which scientists believe to be more easily transmissible among humans than the originally identified version of the virus. Public-health officials believe that studying breakthrough cases will help them better understand how variants work . . . .
https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-ide...d=hp_lead_pos7

A few comments:

- The overall number and percentage of breakthrough cases isn't surprising and, in fact, is reassuring. Even more reassuring to me is that the CDC seems to be on top of genomic sequencing of breakthrough cases to determine whether they are viruses against which the vaccines are effective most of the time or possibly new mutant strains against which the vaccine my have significant lesser effectiveness. So far, that hasn't been the case.

- What is a bit surprising to me although maybe it shouldn't be is that 74 breakthrough cases have died. Recall that in phase 3 testing with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, there were NO deaths among vaccinated individuals.

- Finally, 40% of the breakthrough cases were in people older than 60 whereas (by subtraction) 60% were younger than 60. Given the preponderance of older people among those so far vaccinated, this is a bit surprising. One possibility is that it's because the younger people who were vaccinated early were largely at higher than typical risk--health care workers and so on. In any case, this would seem to confirm that the vaccine works at least as well in older people as in younger in spite of their supposedly weaker immune systems.
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  #5403  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 6:58 PM
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Originally Posted by SteveD View Post
I'm very worried about that. I wonder how many people there are going to be such as myself who get the first shot but not the second one (for vaccines that have a two dose regimen). I have to travel for work.
Why aren't you getting the second shot?

There are studies that show that DELAYING the second shot beyond the 3 or 4 weeks used in the trials is not only not a bad thing, the vaccine may be MORE effective if you do that. It's part of the justification used in the UK and some other places for intentionally trying to maximize first doses while intentional delaying second doses.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SteveD View Post
I'm very pro-science, pro-vaccine, but I canceled my 2nd Moderna shot. I'm still within the 42 day window, which ends one week from today.

I had decades of mild, manageable tinnitus. About 5 days after my first Moderna shot, it got suddenly and dramatically worse, and it remains that way today. The prospect of it getting even worse with a second shot was untenable to me.

There are increasing numbers of people reporting this same condition. I'm on a FB COVID vaccine tinnitus group started just a couple weeks ago that now has over 1,000 members. So far, it's not getting much attention or generating much news.
Ah. Well the good news is that even one dose offers considerable protection.
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  #5404  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 7:16 PM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
I have met more young people that are at least skeptical (if not afraid) of the vaccine than young people who are scared of Covid. And that’s probably justified. Covid is very rarely a problem for young, healthy people but mRNA vaccines are a brand new technology and no long-term studies of their effects exist.

Most people I know are just getting the vaccine out of worry that it will be a prerequisite to do the things they want to do. I’m only getting it so that I can travel freely in Europe.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10023 View Post

And mRNA is new in a different way. It’s essentially a gene editing technology. Most of those earlier vaccines were a fairly tried and tested approach using attenuated virus. And many of those diseases, like smallpox or polio, are far more dangerous than Covid for the general population.

Really we should be strongly encouraging anyone over 50 to be vaccinated, leaving it up to personal preference (but free and widely available) for younger people, and not conferring any special privileges on the vaccinated. In other words treat it just like influenza, but with the government paying and a stronger PR effort.
The mRNA vaccines are likely among the safest possible vaccines and even though there's not long-term testing (nor will such necessarily be generally applicable even when we have relatively long term experience with the coronavirus mRNA vaccines), it's hard to come up with a theory on how they could do harm which is in contrast to traditional vaccines and other techniques. mRNA, unlike other forms of RNA, does not get incorporated into the human genome and its existence within the body is transitory. It is soon destroyed by the body. It is emphatically NOT a gene editing technology.

Quote:
Over the past decade, major technological innovation and research investment have enabled mRNA to become a promising therapeutic tool in the fields of vaccine development and protein replacement therapy. The use of mRNA has several beneficial features over subunit, killed and live attenuated virus, as well as DNA-based vaccines. First, safety: as mRNA is a non-infectious, non-integrating platform, there is no potential risk of infection or insertional mutagenesis. Additionally, mRNA is degraded by normal cellular processes, and its in vivo half-life can be regulated through the use of various modifications and delivery methods. The inherent immunogenicity of the mRNA can be down-modulated to further increase the safety profile. Second, efficacy: various modifications make mRNA more stable and highly translatable. Efficient in vivo delivery can be achieved by formulating mRNA into carrier molecules, allowing rapid uptake and expression in the cytoplasm. mRNA is the minimal genetic vector; therefore, anti-vector immunity is avoided, and mRNA vaccines can be administered repeatedly.
https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243

Finally, you are also incorrect in saying that this technology is "brand new". In fact, there has been a lot of research with it and numerous prototype vaccines previously created. As the CDC put it:

Quote:
Researchers have been studying and working with mRNA vaccines for decades. Interest has grown in these vaccines because they can be developed in a laboratory using readily available materials. This means the process can be standardized and scaled up, making vaccine development faster than traditional methods of making vaccines.

mRNA vaccines have been studied before for flu, Zika, rabies, and cytomegalovirus (CMV).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ines/mrna.html

This idea that mRNA vaccine technology is entirely new and untried is a media fiction you have bought hook, line and sinker. You don't even know how it works.

For a MUCH more thorough discussion of the research and past vaccines, see https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243

Last edited by Pedestrian; Apr 15, 2021 at 7:34 PM.
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  #5405  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 7:25 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
I have a question for the "COVID is mutating and the vaccine may eventually stop working" porn crowd:

What happens when a new vaccine for the mutant strain is created?

Then we get that shot.

Then the mutant strain mutates further so that the new shot is no longer effective?

Then we will get a new shot for the new strains...

Then that shot is no longer effective because COVID has mutated even further..

But then there's another new shot...

And another set of new mutations....

And another new shot....

All the while ALL of NYC's restaurants, gyms, and bars are long closed & the roofs collapsed..
All of the hotels everywhere are abandoned
We all are connected via wires from our scalps to our laptops and order everything on Amazon while watching CNN updates on COVID infection rates 24/7
And Pedestrian now has long hair, a long beard, looks like Gandalf, and slurps all of his meals through a sterile straw

But we will STILL BE SAFE!!!!!!
First of all, is it possible for you to be respectful of anyone who disagrees with you? Evidently not. You are acting like a jerk and I am going to report future posts that feature ad hominem attacks until the mods take some action.

Now on to the substance.

This is based on an entirely FALSE premise. Nobody here is advocating keeping everything locked down.

I believe we are in agreement that once most people who are willing--and I do think there needs to be some coercion of the less than willing such as vaccine passports for indoor crowded events, pressure at office job sites to either get vaccinated or undergo frequent testing at YOUR expense and so on--have been vaccinated, we can relax most of the public health measures. I personally plan to continue to wear a mask in some settings where I never would have thought of doing so previously until COVID become truly a sporadic illness with NO regularly occurring cases. But even that should probably become voluntary one we have given as many shots as people are willing to take.

Finally, yes, we MAY need to continuously come up with new vaccines and the mRNA technology makes that pretty easy. But if we suppress coronavirus replication drastically, mutation may be few and far between and new "booster" shots may hardly be needed.
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  #5406  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 7:30 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
I got flu shots just about every year in middle and high school, but only because my parents were required to be vaccinated for work. I haven't gotten a flu shot since college, but I got the flu a couple of years ago and it was no fun at all. If it were more convenient to get the shot, I would do it every year without question.
How much more convenient does it have to be? Every year I walk into a Walgreen's (that's Duane Reade to you I think) or CVS and say I'd like a flu shot please and within 30 minutes I walk out having had one (paid for by my insurance).

In another month or two, getting a COVID shot will hopefully be like that too.
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  #5407  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:18 PM
woodrow woodrow is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
56 is old? Holy shit!

And I disagree that we should be targeting any age group for vaccination. All adults should be encouraged to get the shots. I’m not as irrationally freaked about variants as some others are, but we DO have to acknowledge that as long as the viral load is high in the public, the virus will gradually evolve into resistant strains. Keeping viral levels low within the population is the best way to dramatically slow that process down.
No no...he's right. I am ready to be put out to pasture. Getting my cane fitt'n next week.

But to your point on variants, like you I am not freaked out, but if we can minimize the number of variants and their potential problems, why not? That is why I want everyone, old and young, to get vaccinated, whether mRNA based or vaccines like J&J (assuming there is 1. No causal connection or 2. Deemed worth the risk).
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  #5408  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:27 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
How much more convenient does it have to be? Every year I walk into a Walgreen's (that's Duane Reade to you I think) or CVS and say I'd like a flu shot please and within 30 minutes I walk out having had one (paid for by my insurance).

In another month or two, getting a COVID shot will hopefully be like that too.
That sounds easy, but not necessarily convenient. I'm not making an excuse, because I know I could get one if I needed to. But I have to substantially alter my routine to get a shot, and it's not usually a pressing concern. Now that I'm getting older I'll probably be more responsible.
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  #5409  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:30 PM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
Except it’s not me making incorrect, unsupported statements. It’s me and like a dozen other forumers making statements which are supported by a year’s worth of clinical and statistical data, and then you and one or two other hypochondriacs saying that the sky is falling and young, healthy people need to act like we are still in lockdown or we’ll all die.
You're the other extreme of the hypochondriacs who wear 2 masks in the car and think we're all going to die. It's somewhere in the middle..like most issues. Young people should get vaccinated if not for themselves but for us to reach herd immunity. My mother-in-law is in remission for a form of leukemia which rendered her vaccination useless so it's in her best interest and those like her if everyone gets vaccinated. Plus, you're age group isn't bullet proof; half the people I see in their 30's are not exactly in tip top shape.
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  #5410  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
The mRNA vaccines are likely among the safest possible vaccines and even though there's not long-term testing (nor will such necessarily be generally applicable even when we have relatively long term experience with the coronavirus mRNA vaccines), it's hard to come up with a theory on how they could do harm which is in contrast to traditional vaccines and other techniques. mRNA, unlike other forms of RNA, does not get incorporated into the human genome and its existence within the body is transitory. It is soon destroyed by the body. It is emphatically NOT a gene editing technology.


https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243

Finally, you are also incorrect in saying that this technology is "brand new". In fact, there has been a lot of research with it and numerous prototype vaccines previously created. As the CDC put it:


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ines/mrna.html

This idea that mRNA vaccine technology is entirely new and untried is a media fiction you have bought hook, line and sinker. You don't even know how it works.

For a MUCH more thorough discussion of the research and past vaccines, see https://www.nature.com/articles/nrd.2017.243
Maybe we are confused about the use of the word “essentially”. It tricks the body into producing antibodies by the introduction of genetic code. If it was not temporary and was incorporated permanently into the patient’s genome, then it wouldn’t have been “essentially” anything, it would be actual gene editing technology like Luxturna.

There has never been an approved mRNA vaccine. There have not even been large scale phase 3 studies of a previous mRNA vaccine, just earlier stage research. It is a new technology.
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  #5411  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:33 PM
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Originally Posted by JManc View Post
You're the other extreme of the hypochondriacs who wear 2 masks in the car and think we're all going to die. It's somewhere in the middle..like most issues. Young people should get vaccinated if not for themselves but for us to reach herd immunity. My mother-in-law is in remission for a form of leukemia which rendered her vaccination useless so it's in her best interest and those like her if everyone gets vaccinated. Plus, you're age group isn't bullet proof; half the people I see in their 30's are not exactly in tip top shape.
Well, I’m in pretty damn good shape. I’ve also apparently had Covid and those antibodies are as good as the ones from a vaccine with respect to herd immunity.
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  #5412  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
How much more convenient does it have to be? Every year I walk into a Walgreen's (that's Duane Reade to you I think) or CVS and say I'd like a flu shot please and within 30 minutes I walk out having had one (paid for by my insurance).

In another month or two, getting a COVID shot will hopefully be like that too.
30 minutes is actually quite a long time to spend waiting around in a pharmacy for someone who isn’t retired.
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There is a cult of ignorance in the United States, and there always has been. The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge." - Isaac Asimov
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  #5413  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:36 PM
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Originally Posted by woodrow View Post
No no...he's right. I am ready to be put out to pasture. Getting my cane fitt'n next week.

But to your point on variants, like you I am not freaked out, but if we can minimize the number of variants and their potential problems, why not? That is why I want everyone, old and young, to get vaccinated, whether mRNA based or vaccines like J&J (assuming there is 1. No causal connection or 2. Deemed worth the risk).
Nobody here is "freaked out". Frankly, I doubt there's as much disagreement as some might wish.

We mostly agree the CDC blew their early responsibilities with a test that didn't work and totally inadequate contact tracing and so on a year ago. In my opinion, their most important job right now is genotyping any and all "breakthrough" cases looking for evidence of variants that do have an ability to evade the vaccines in serious numbers and, if any are discovered, making sure that production of modified vaccines is in process. The article I posted above suggests they are on top of this. I just hope they are.

It is also important to reduce viral replication as much as possible. That will minimize the potential for mutations that could be a problem. And it means getting as many people as possible vaccinated, young and old (it doesn't matter how sick the virus makes you when it infects you--it can mutate in you regardless). It also means that young people avoiding vaccination and/or accepting a high degree of risk of infection is a problem for everyone because they are an incubator for potential mutations.

All this is among the reasons 10023's attitude is so wrong. But to the degree urban politician just wants lockdowns and economy-damaging restrictions lifted, we agree. I've personally never been for the tightest of measures (I said at the beginning of this discussion that I wouldn't stay locked in my home even if told to) and I agree with him that even the time for lesser but economy-damaging measures has passed. And for G*d sake get the schools open.
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  #5414  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:39 PM
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Originally Posted by 10023 View Post
30 minutes is actually quite a long time to spend waiting around in a pharmacy for someone who isn’t retired.
Nobody said I was "waiting around" that long. The vaccination was quite prompt but there's some paperwork to fill out (questionnaire about past reactions etc) and then you have to wait the usual 15 minutes to be sure you don't have a reaction.

And my gosh, how many minutes a day do you spend "working out"? Arguably 30 minutes spent getting a flue shot once a year is a better way to spend that 30 minutes.
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  #5415  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:44 PM
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Well, I’m in pretty damn good shape. I’ve also apparently had Covid and those antibodies are as good as the ones from a vaccine with respect to herd immunity.
1. You keep telling us what great shape you are in. We are suitably impressed.

2. Did you finally have the SARS-CoV-2 antibody test?

3. There is data the antibodies one gets from having infection are NOT as good as from the complete vaccination series. That's why nearly all experts are recommending even people who've had COVID get vaccinated.

Quote:
Is immunity from the vaccine stronger than natural immunity from infection?

“The first time your body sees the spike protein, it activates some immune system cells to begin to recognize and develop antibodies against that protein,” said Boslett*. The response may be similar whether that first encounter is from infection with the virus or from the first dose of the vaccine.

Studies of the mRNA vaccines suggest that one dose may offer between 50 to 80 percent protection against symptomatic COVID-19, though more data is needed, said Boslett. “We know you get some amount of protection after one dose of the vaccine or after infection with the virus, but we don’t know in either case how long that protection lasts,” she said. Some cases of reinfection have been reported after three to six months, so the protection from one dose of the vaccine also may wane in that timeframe.

“However, when you get the second dose of the vaccine, you’re further training your immune system,” said Boslett. “You’re strengthening that response from the antibody-producing B cells and you’re also activating T memory cells that stick around for much longer.” Getting both doses of the vaccine means your body is shown this spike protein multiple times in a short duration. “So that immune response might be bigger, better and longer lasting than just getting the infection one time,” she said.

Because the booster effect is so important, Boslett adds that this is why people who have had COVID-19 are still recommended to get the vaccine.
https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2021/01/41...s-common-fears

*Bryn Boslett, MD, an infectious disease expert who is leading the vaccination effort at UC San Francisco
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  #5416  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:50 PM
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
LOL Exactly.


I have already spent 13 months of my life living like this, I am done.

What if I die at 50? I would have spent 2% of my life inside.



At what point do you fearmongers just say "alright, this is a virus, we have to move on with our lives before we don't have the same life to move back to?" 2 more months? 6? 1 year? Never?

If you think normal people are gonna continue to put their lives on hold because of your fear, sorry, not going to happen.
Lord knows I have not put my life on hold. I have gone on road trips to multiple locations and stayed at various hotels in multiple States. I never stopped shopping and have eaten at plenty of restaurants with outdoor seating. I also have gotten together with different friends and family without masks and had friends vacation at my home. In other words I have not been the poster child for proper pandemic behavior. Fortunately I never got sick and am now a week into my second Pfizer shot.

All that said I would not go shopping in a grocery store without a mask more because I have taken risks and want to mitigate that risk to strangers. I would not eat in a crowded restaurant or go to a bar yet. I am not upset that these establishments are opening up and if adults want to frequent them so be it. Just be decent and respectable when you're in a public place that other people need to be rather than choose to be in like a grocery store post office, pharmacy etc. and wear a mask is all I ask. Oh and get vaccinated as soon as you can. I find it odd some people are not concerned about catching the virus but then are concerned about getting the vaccine because one in a million have had an adverse reaction.
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  #5417  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 8:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
At last some concrete data:


https://www.wsj.com/articles/cdc-ide...d=hp_lead_pos7

A few comments:

- The overall number and percentage of breakthrough cases isn't surprising and, in fact, is reassuring. Even more reassuring to me is that the CDC seems to be on top of genomic sequencing of breakthrough cases to determine whether they are viruses against which the vaccines are effective most of the time or possibly new mutant strains against which the vaccine my have significant lesser effectiveness. So far, that hasn't been the case.

- What is a bit surprising to me although maybe it shouldn't be is that 74 breakthrough cases have died. Recall that in phase 3 testing with the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines, there were NO deaths among vaccinated individuals.

- Finally, 40% of the breakthrough cases were in people older than 60 whereas (by subtraction) 60% were younger than 60. Given the preponderance of older people among those so far vaccinated, this is a bit surprising. One possibility is that it's because the younger people who were vaccinated early were largely at higher than typical risk--health care workers and so on. In any case, this would seem to confirm that the vaccine works at least as well in older people as in younger in spite of their supposedly weaker immune systems.
Thanks for sharing this, and it's more than enough evidence to continue the path we are on to opening everything back up by early-mid Summer.....

No reason to suspect urban areas this Summer won't be party-central.
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  #5418  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 9:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
Nobody said I was "waiting around" that long. The vaccination was quite prompt but there's some paperwork to fill out (questionnaire about past reactions etc) and then you have to wait the usual 15 minutes to be sure you don't have a reaction.

And my gosh, how many minutes a day do you spend "working out"? Arguably 30 minutes spent getting a flue shot once a year is a better way to spend that 30 minutes.
Well no, not for me it isn’t. I can’t even remember the last time I had flu and the exercise is part of the reason why.
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  #5419  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 9:06 PM
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Well no, not for me it isn’t. I can’t even remember the last time I had flu and the exercise is part of the reason why.
Exercise doesn't prevent the flu, nor does it prevent COVID. Also, I'm reasonably certain that I got infected with the flu at the gym when I had it a couple of years ago. Gyms are germ factories.
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  #5420  
Old Posted Apr 15, 2021, 9:06 PM
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Well no, not for me it isn’t. I can’t even remember the last time I had flu and the exercise is part of the reason why.
I get the flu shot every year. Two or three years ago I got the flu shot as usual and developed a nagging cough that I couldn't shake. I eventually went to my Doc and he swabbed my throat and came back into the examining room a few minutes later wearing a mask, announcing that I had the flu. I hadn't even suspected it. Whichever year that was the prevailing strain was particularly virulent and he said if I hadn't gotten the flu shot I undoubtedly would have been in the hospital. I'm 58 now, so I would have been mid 50's at the time. Healthy, non smoker, not obese.
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