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  #4441  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 4:01 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Believe it or not, China's numbers are legit. You probably won't though because "CHiNa is bAd!!" I personally know people that live there and life is back to normal. No masks except at the doctor's office, banks, and grocery stores. No social distancing. The clubs in Wuhan are alive and poppin'. It was Chinese New Year recently, and people were hanging out like normal, visiting family and friends. You incorrectly assume that COVID cases are being hid under the mattress. In reality, it's all their red envelope stashes.
Yeah, last summer I expressed skepticism in this thread of China's numbers suddenly leveling off, but it has to be legit. They appear to be mostly back to normal.
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  #4442  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 4:07 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Looking at the Worldometers COVID numbers this morning I noticed that the U.S. is theoretically closer to infecting the entire country than any other large country in the world. Only a handful of small countries in central and eastern Europe have higher rates of infection per capita than us.
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  #4443  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 4:49 PM
badrunner badrunner is offline
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Maybe the Malaria results in super immune systems. Assuming one lives to adult hood (tons of children die before 5), those folks are exposed to a lot of fun pathogens. Malaria (P. falciparum which is the worst one and is very common), Yellow Fever, Typhoid, Zika, Dengue, Rickettsioses, good old Tuberculosis... and many more.

It builds a strong immune system!

So Corona comes along, and it doesn't stand a chance. Needs to step its game up.

IDK... possibly folks in Africa have immune systems that see Corona as a mild hazard. Years of drinking unclean water will build solid immune system. Unless one gets HIV/AIDS, but point being, probally has an influence I bet.

Its also hot in those lands.

Now I'm not saying those numbers are true, as anybody with a cranium will tell you they are undercounted, but could be African heat and immunity might play a role.
Africa has been spared mostly because they have a very young population. Their 75+ population is tiny compared to western countries. That alone would account for most of the difference, but there are other factors like low degree of personal mobility, less international travel, less globally integrated economy etc. I'm not saying the numbers coming out of Africa are entirely accurate, but there's no reason to believe that they're intentionally hiding anything either.
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  #4444  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 5:00 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
Africa has been spared mostly because they have a very young population. Their 75+ population is tiny compared to western countries. That alone would account for most of the difference, but there are other factors like low degree of personal mobility, less international travel, less globally integrated economy etc. I'm not saying the numbers coming out of Africa are entirely accurate, but there's no reason to believe that they're intentionally hiding anything either.
African governments also have way more experience in dealing with epidemics and pandemics.
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  #4445  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 5:02 PM
homebucket homebucket is offline
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Originally Posted by badrunner View Post
Africa has been spared mostly because they have a very young population. Their 75+ population is tiny compared to western countries. That alone would account for most of the difference, but there are other factors like low degree of personal mobility, less international travel, less globally integrated economy etc. I'm not saying the numbers coming out of Africa are entirely accurate, but there's no reason to believe that they're intentionally hiding anything either.
Also, younger populations that get COVID are more likely to be mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and thus not get tested. So the current numbers may not truly reflect the case counts. I'm also not sure how rigorous their testing is to begin with, but either way, I don't think they're undercounting their cases intentionally as some on here are claiming.
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  #4446  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 5:08 PM
mrnyc mrnyc is offline
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
Also, younger populations that get COVID are more likely to be mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic, and thus not get tested. So the current numbers may not truly reflect the case counts. I'm also not sure how rigorous their testing is to begin with, but either way, I don't think they're undercounting their cases intentionally as some on here are claiming.
it also doesnt help accuracy when you die over there and its all labeled a french le gripe or similar. i mean post mortem investigations and autopsies arent exactly a big thing there, especially out in the country side.
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  #4447  
Old Posted Feb 17, 2021, 8:16 PM
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it also doesnt help accuracy when you die over there and its all labeled a french le gripe or similar. i mean post mortem investigations and autopsies arent exactly a big thing there, especially out in the country side.
LOL WTF's a "french le gripe"?

(Note that "grippe" is the French word for influenza.)
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  #4448  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 4:57 AM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Originally Posted by homebucket View Post
I'm also not sure how rigorous their testing is to begin with, but either way, I don't think they're undercounting their cases intentionally as some on here are claiming.
I'm not sure if you're talking about me with that comment, but in the cases I'm somewhat familiar with (like Congo), they're not really counting (under or otherwise), nor are they "intentionally" doing anything.

The cases of deliberate nonreporting (North Korea for example) are fairly rare. For most countries it's just not intentional, they don't have the resources to do it (or even afford to take Covid seriously, in some cases).
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  #4449  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 5:35 AM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
The cases of deliberate nonreporting (North Korea for example) are fairly rare. For most countries it's just not intentional, they don't have the resources to do it (or even afford to take Covid seriously, in some cases).
There are a few studies that tested "participants" in morgues in Africa and they had significant positivity for SARS-CoV-2. Example is something like this: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...0248327v1.full

(It says contrary to expectations but this actually follows my expectations... I'd be surprised if these hospitals didn't have significant numbers of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2.)

As you suggest mortality isn't the same everywhere and covid might not register as public health threat #1 in a lot of countries, partly because of younger populations but also because other threats are worse. In some countries most people are either subsistence farmers or they earn money to buy food day by day and the national government doesn't have the capacity to easily step in and support the population in a lockdown.
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  #4450  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 12:41 PM
nito nito is offline
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Exactly. The U.S., U.K., and much of Europe responded to the pandemic arrogantly in the beginning. The U.S. has pretty much been the poster child of what not to do at every step of the way, and it remains to be seen if the vaccine will bail us out of this situation. It has been a huge blow to the country's credibility. How will this country expect to lead other countries in the future when we were unable to adequately respond to the most urgent global disaster in a century?
There has undoubtedly been damage to the "Western" brand, the question is whether this will be long-term.

People assume that just because most deaths have been focused on older age groups and people with pre-existing conditions, that this whole situation is overblown. Yet the number of deaths from Covid-19 amongst the 25-34 age group in the US is close to surpassing the toll from the 9/11 attacks. Several countries have been reporting that younger age groups (with no conditions) are now being hospitalised in higher numbers with more severe conditions. I have several friends who could cycle 300km+ in a day without fail, who are now struggling to do 100km because of the side-effects from long-Covid.

We should all be rightly worried if a new variant emerges that has a far more negative impact on younger age groups.

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Originally Posted by Minato Ku View Post
There is a "slight" difference between Australia/New Zealand and European countries. Their geographical position. They are Islands and pretty removed from their surrounding countries. A good thing in normal cases but also a bad things in case of a pandemic, European borders are open.European countires are interconnected. Million of people cross it easily. You can't easily seal off european countries. You should not forget the factor "luck" in a pandemic. Remember that Italy was the first European country to close its border to China. Italy was the first European country to establish a lockdown and yet...
Geography undoubtedly helps, but Australia has also shown that internal closures along state lines are possible. The difference is the political will to make tough decisions early on, instead they either weren't made, were half-hearted or too slow to be implemented to have any positive effect.
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  #4451  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 3:19 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by nito View Post
There has undoubtedly been damage to the "Western" brand, the question is whether this will be long-term.
Nonsense. I feel like this forum is just an echo chamber for think-alikes

People from these eastern countries that you keep frolicking over are still coming and will keep coming in droves to Western nations because of its values, one of which being relatively weak Government and a relatively robust private sector. Don’t any of you know any immigrants?

These same values tend to be a shortcoming during worldwide pandemics, but there is no one-size-fits all when it comes to cultures and ways to run societies. Make no mistake, the flow of immigration is and will remain in one direction: Toward the west.

Quote:
People assume that just because most deaths have been focused on older age groups and people with pre-existing conditions, that this whole situation is overblown. Yet the number of deaths from Covid-19 amongst the 25-34 age group in the US is close to surpassing the toll from the 9/11 attacks. Several countries have been reporting that younger age groups (with no conditions) are now being hospitalised in higher numbers with more severe conditions. I have several friends who could cycle 300km+ in a day without fail, who are now struggling to do 100km because of the side-effects from long-Covid.
The deaths of Covid among the young have been overblown. You are talking anecdotes. Everybody here keeps doing this, it’s just getting silly at this point. If you can’t differentiate anecdotes from statistics then there is nothing to discuss. The mortality rate of Covid for the young is exceedingly low, and low enough that living in fear is not rational behavior (unless you are trying to protect an elderly family member, which is a different story altogether). Just remember that 130 US children died during the 2019-2020 Flu season, and yeah I know you never heard about it because it wasn’t due to Covid.

Quote:
We should all be rightly worried if a new variant emerges that has a far more negative impact on younger age groups.
No we shouldn’t. Complete, utter, fear mongering.

Quote:
Geography undoubtedly helps, but Australia has also shown that internal closures along state lines are possible. The difference is the political will to make tough decisions early on, instead they either weren't made, were half-hearted or too slow to be implemented to have any positive effect.
The only thing that I think would’ve made a difference early on is a complete quarantine of early infected cases. THAT, my friend, would work.

Everything else is just insanity propagating more insanity. Fear, irrationism, misinformation, and amateurs trying to set public policy. And the damage has been done. Friggin millions out of jobs
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Last edited by the urban politician; Feb 18, 2021 at 3:38 PM.
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  #4452  
Old Posted Feb 18, 2021, 3:33 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Per WHO: (IFR meaning Infection Fatality Rate, which will always overestimate true mortality rate due to there always being many undiagnosed Covid infections):

A recent (Dec 2020) systematic review and meta-analysis estimated that population IFR during the first wave of the pandemic was about 0.5% to 1% in many locations (including France, Netherlands, New Zealand, and Portugal), 1% to 2% in other locations (Australia, England, Lithuania, and Spain), and exceeded 2% in Italy. That study also found that most of these differences in IFR reflected corresponding differences in the age composition of the population and age-specific infection rates; in particular, the metaregression estimate of IFR is very low for children and younger adults (e.g., 0.002% at age 10 and 0.01% at age 25) but increases progressively to 0.4% at age 55, 1.4% at age 65, 4.6% at age 75, and 15% at age 85. These results were also highlighted in a December 2020 report issued by the WHO.
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  #4453  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 3:51 PM
nito nito is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
Nonsense. I feel like this forum is just an echo chamber for think-alikes People from these eastern countries that you keep frolicking over are still coming and will keep coming in droves to Western nations because of its values, one of which being relatively weak Government and a relatively robust private sector. Don’t any of you know any immigrants? These same values tend to be a shortcoming during worldwide pandemics, but there is no one-size-fits all when it comes to cultures and ways to run societies. Make no mistake, the flow of immigration is and will remain in one direction: Toward the west.
Perhaps you are thinking of someone else, but I have been discussing the success of Australia and New Zealand relative to that of the UK, US and other European nations. These two countries have amongst the best rated democracies, strongest performing economies, and most successful magnets for migrants well before Covid-19, so I fail to see your point.

Australia and New Zealand didn’t even compromise their values; they merely treated this crisis with the seriousness that it needed and followed through with the actions that were required to suppress this situation from becoming a crisis.

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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
The deaths of Covid among the young have been overblown. You are talking anecdotes. Everybody here keeps doing this, it’s just getting silly at this point. If you can’t differentiate anecdotes from statistics then there is nothing to discuss. The mortality rate of Covid for the young is exceedingly low, and low enough that living in fear is not rational behavior (unless you are trying to protect an elderly family member, which is a different story altogether). Just remember that 130 US children died during the 2019-2020 Flu season, and yeah I know you never heard about it because it wasn’t due to Covid. No we shouldn’t. Complete, utter, fear mongering. The only thing that I think would’ve made a difference early on is a complete quarantine of early infected cases. THAT, my friend, would work. verything else is just insanity propagating more insanity. Fear, irrationism, misinformation, and amateurs trying to set public policy. And the damage has been done. Friggin millions out of jobs
Again, are you confusing me for someone else? Where did I say that the mortality rate for the young wasn’t low? You even quote me saying the opposite!

I suspect the difference between you, and I is that we presumably have divergent perspectives on the value of human life, but in your example, 130 deaths of children from flu are 130 too many, as are x number of deaths from car accidents, y number of deaths from gun crime, etc… Why should any death irrelevant of whether the cause be domestic violence, terrorist attack, or virus be tolerated?

We don’t need to run around like headless chickens, but the emergence of new variants which could have higher rates of transmission and/or lethality is most certainly a present and ever evolving threat. We’re not talking rocket science here – the virus needs people to spread, the more opportunities we give the virus to adapt, the more time it has to develop new mutations. If the UK authorities and society had taken this crisis with the seriousness it required, it is doubtful that the “Kent” variant would have emerged, a variant which has been demonstrated to have 70% higher rates of transmission, 30% higher rates of hospitalisation and deaths and significant antigenic escape from naturally acquired immunity. It is pretty much inevitable that worse variants will emerge the longer we fail to get on top of this crisis, so no it is not fear mongering, it is an evidence-based critique of the situation we find ourselves in.
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  #4454  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 4:59 PM
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More people over 100 have died in the US from Covid than people aged 40-49.

Comparing the young dead to 9/11 numbers is insane. We have more 100-year-olds who have died from Covid in the US than everyone who died on 9/11. That's a crazy statistic seeing as 100-year-olds make up a TINY portion of our population.

But we keep trying to get young people scared. It's silly. It's why the news keeps posting stories of kids dying from this. Why? Statistics show kids are the best equipped to fight this off yet they keep scaring parents into submitting to irrational ideas.
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  #4455  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 5:17 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by jtown,man View Post
More people over 100 have died in the US from Covid than people aged 40-49.

Comparing the young dead to 9/11 numbers is insane. We have more 100-year-olds who have died from Covid in the US than everyone who died on 9/11. That's a crazy statistic seeing as 100-year-olds make up a TINY portion of our population.

But we keep trying to get young people scared. It's silly. It's why the news keeps posting stories of kids dying from this. Why? Statistics show kids are the best equipped to fight this off yet they keep scaring parents into submitting to irrational ideas.
The media couldn't report on it if the kids didn't actually die, lol.
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  #4456  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 5:25 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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^ I think the point is that the media has a lot of power to distort perspective, and to a dumb public (and the public is indeed dumb as rocks) it works. Too well.

Can we all agree that a child's death is a child's death, and it's all equally tragic? Because, once again, hundreds of kids die of Influenza yearly, and I never saw people suddenly shitting their pants over that. Perhaps that's because Lester Holt doesn't report those deaths on the NBC Evening News.
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  #4457  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 5:29 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ I think the point is that the media has a lot of power to distort perspective, and to a dumb public (and the public is indeed dumb as rocks) it works. Too well.

Can we all agree that a child's death is a child's death, and it's all equally tragic? Because, once again, hundreds of kids die of Influenza yearly, and I never saw people suddenly shitting their pants over that. Perhaps that's because Lester Holt doesn't report those deaths on the NBC Evening News.
There's also a flu vaccine.
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  #4458  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 7:19 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post
^ I think the point is that the media has a lot of power to distort perspective, and to a dumb public (and the public is indeed dumb as rocks) it works. Too well.

Can we all agree that a child's death is a child's death, and it's all equally tragic? Because, once again, hundreds of kids die of Influenza yearly, and I never saw people suddenly shitting their pants over that. Perhaps that's because Lester Holt doesn't report those deaths on the NBC Evening News.
Agreed. Covid is serious and deadlier than the flu but the media has been on full tilt fear mongering mode since it began. It's working.
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  #4459  
Old Posted Feb 22, 2021, 9:19 PM
Buckeye Native 001 Buckeye Native 001 is offline
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*delete*

Last edited by Buckeye Native 001; Feb 22, 2021 at 11:21 PM. Reason: Wrong thread/subforum
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  #4460  
Old Posted Feb 23, 2021, 12:52 AM
mhays mhays is offline
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Agreed. Covid is serious and deadlier than the flu but the media has been on full tilt fear mongering mode since it began. It's working.
We have 500,000 US deaths instead of 1,000,000 or who knows. Fear is good.
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