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  #3081  
Old Posted Mar 15, 2021, 9:07 PM
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Originally Posted by plutonicpanda View Post
I'm sure all the people didn't think the train was going to cost 100 billion, be scaled back to the Valley, single tracked, non-electrified, and pushed back to the late 2030s which will surely be delayed again unless things turn around.
It's not going to be all those things. It's going to be electrified. And it's not going to be single tracked. On the SF Peninsula, it's going to be double tracked (with extensive sidings allowing local CalTrains to be passed) rather than 4-tracked. Elsewhere, where it doesn't share tracks with slower trains, double tracked.

If it isn't built beyond the Central Valley, it won't cost $100 billion--that, of course, is for the full system, San Francisco and Sacramento to LA.

The schedule of when it might be completed depends entirely on funding, of course. If someday soon we wake up to the value of HSR and/or a beneficent Administration in DC decides to provide some serious money, maybe along with money for a new Hudson River tunnel on the East Coast, the schedule could be rapidly advanced.

You never know what the future may bring.
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  #3082  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2021, 12:48 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post

The schedule of when it might be completed depends entirely on funding, of course.

As I mentioned upthread, California's existing budget has the capacity to comfortably repay a $100 billion bond sale. Debt is the cheapest it's ever been, in all of history, right now. The only reason why California's bonds (or any other state's) aren't a great investment is because of the low return, not because the state faces any sort of revenue crisis.

Come getcha some:
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual.../profile/VCAIX
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  #3083  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2021, 10:49 PM
plutonicpanda plutonicpanda is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
It's not going to be all those things. It's going to be electrified. And it's not going to be single tracked. On the SF Peninsula, it's going to be double tracked (with extensive sidings allowing local CalTrains to be passed) rather than 4-tracked. Elsewhere, where it doesn't share tracks with slower trains, double tracked.

If it isn't built beyond the Central Valley, it won't cost $100 billion--that, of course, is for the full system, San Francisco and Sacramento to LA.

The schedule of when it might be completed depends entirely on funding, of course. If someday soon we wake up to the value of HSR and/or a beneficent Administration in DC decides to provide some serious money, maybe along with money for a new Hudson River tunnel on the East Coast, the schedule could be rapidly advanced.

You never know what the future may bring.
I'm just repeating what I've seen.

This is not the full system but only for the LA to SF portion:

Quote:
SACRAMENTO — The California High-Speed Rail Authority on Wednesday bumped its overall cost estimate for completing the rail line between Los Angeles and San Francisco to $80.3 billion
- https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ts-for-project

It seems like every other month the price jumps by a couple billion. I really don't see how this will cost anything less than a quarter of a trillion dollars to build out the entire proposed network. IIRC, just a small section in South OC by the Del Mar bluffs is going to cost a billion or so to bury. I fully support and HSR network but why on earth are we not looking at ways to potentially reduce costs? I just don't get why other countries can build massive infrastructure projects for pennies compared to what we build ours for.
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  #3084  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2021, 11:04 PM
plutonicpanda plutonicpanda is offline
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Prop 1a

Quote:
Proposition 1A authorized the issuance of $9.95 billion in general obligation bonds, including $9.00 billion for the planning and construction of an 800-mile high-speed rail system connecting San Francisco to Los Angeles. Proposition 1A's remaining $950 million in bonds was intended for commuter rail systems that provide connections to the high-speed rail’s facilities. Proposition 1A said the high-speed train would need to move at a speed of at least 200 mph and connect San Francisco to Los Angeles in 2 ⅔ hours
https://ballotpedia.org/California_P..._Measure_(2008)

Original proposal. I haven't gone and check but IIRC earlier estimates placed a price tag around 20-25 billion for a build out between SF and LA with other parts of the system to be built at a later date.

Quote:
Proposition 1 is a $9.95 billion bond measure for an 800-mile High-Speed Train network that will relieve 70 million passenger trips a year that now clog California’s highways and airports—WITHOUT RAISING TAXES.
Let's see if that sticks with even recent legislation on SB-1 to make funds more "flexible" with car drivers yet again subsidizing transit.

I'm getting frustrated trying to find the current proposal with specific numbers rather than proposed ultimate build outs and I thought I found one on LA times but alas I was met with a paywall obviously.

https://www.railwayage.com/passenger...gh-speed-rail/

And see the 2020 business plan which says draft so I'm unsure if that was approved or not. From my understanding, initial plans are now deiseal powered trains, a single track in one area, grade crossings(which they promised we wouldn't have) in some areas, and a starting speed of 120MPH.

https://hsr.ca.gov/about/business_plans/2020/

I'll dig more into it later. Maybe with Biden the full plan will get back on track but not without a massive cost that could be lowered if we would reform infrastructure building reform. Just to remind anyone that thinks I'm against HSR, I'm not, I want HSR in California.
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  #3085  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2021, 11:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plutonicpanda View Post
I'm just repeating what I've seen.

This is not the full system but only for the LA to SF portion:



- https://www.latimes.com/california/s...ts-for-project

It seems like every other month the price jumps by a couple billion. I really don't see how this will cost anything less than a quarter of a trillion dollars to build out the entire proposed network. IIRC, just a small section in South OC by the Del Mar bluffs is going to cost a billion or so to bury. I fully support and HSR network but why on earth are we not looking at ways to potentially reduce costs? I just don't get why other countries can build massive infrastructure projects for pennies compared to what we build ours for.
That's true--$80 billion for LA to SF because that's the high cost part of the route since it involves the two mountain crossings on either end. I'm not sure what the spur to Sacramento would cost but another $20 billion seems reasonable since it's all flat.

I'm not counting the LA to OC and SD portion--I thought that had been put on a "wish list" for the future once the LA to SF and Sacto route was built.
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  #3086  
Old Posted Mar 17, 2021, 11:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
That's true--$80 billion for LA to SF because that's the high cost part of the route since it involves the two mountain crossings on either end. I'm not sure what the spur to Sacramento would cost but another $20 billion seems reasonable since it's all flat.

I'm not counting the LA to OC and SD portion--I thought that had been put on a "wish list" for the future once the LA to SF and Sacto route was built.
I could be wrong but I had thought environmental planning had begun for the LAUS to the ARTIC station in Anaheim.

I think there are also plans to build a tunnel in the Del Mar bluffs area as that area is rapidly eroding. You would think they would build for HSR but I am not sure what the status of that project is.

I think the Palmdale to LAUS is going to be insane, price point wise. I just hope they don't skimp on quality build like lower speeds and grade crossings.
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  #3087  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2021, 4:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Pedestrian View Post
I'm not counting the LA to OC and SD portion--I thought that had been put on a "wish list" for the future
That's such a shame. The existing train from LA to OC and SD is already the most ridden Amtrak line in the US outside of the NEC. It could be as important as the line from LA to SF.
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  #3088  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2021, 6:00 AM
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Phase 1 has always been SF-Anaheim.
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  #3089  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2021, 7:01 AM
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I am so disheartened about how long this project has taken and how far it still has to go... Maybe the future really is P3-style turnkey construction/lease operations ala Brightline or Texas Central Railway...

Even just a slightly more realistic game-plan that cost half the price might have been a better idea (i.e. a 125 mph/200 km/h rail network) but it's split milk now isn't it?
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  #3090  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2021, 1:53 PM
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So........dream small?
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  #3091  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2021, 6:40 PM
canucklehead2 canucklehead2 is offline
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More like "Don't write cheques, your ass can't cash!" or finance your projects in a way that can't be undone by your successor... I.e. what the hell's going on in California...
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  #3092  
Old Posted Mar 18, 2021, 9:53 PM
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More like "Don't write cheques, your ass can't cash!" or finance your projects in a way that can't be undone by your successor... I.e. what the hell's going on in California...
We're supposedly the fifth largest economy in the world, here in California. You'd think we could pull of a large public works project like a new high speed train. It hits on so many levels... congestion reduction, increased housing flexibility, reduced pollution. All things that could make us even more successful in the future... and in a sustainable way. I think we just get so bogged down in special interest group politics which makes this harder than it necessarily needs to be.
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  #3093  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 2:07 PM
jmecklenborg jmecklenborg is offline
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Drum roll please...the broad details of Biden's infrastructure bill will be announced this week. Expect giant money for California's High Speed Rail system along with big money for electrified freight and passenger rail across the country. No telling what happens in Congress but the very real possibility exists that completion of CAHSR Phase 1 will be fully funded by the summer, with no way for Republicans to block its completion.
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  #3094  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 3:24 PM
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^ Agreed. I think CA will be a huge beneficiary of the infrastructure bill. Maybe the high speed train will eventually reach outside the Central Valley!
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  #3095  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 3:41 PM
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If I can make just ONE prediction:

I think we have been apprehensive in these parts about what is possible in Congress, easily for the last 10 years, but realistically for the last 40. Conservative ideology and chronic congressional dysfunction through obstruction-as-the-goal has jaded many about what we can realistically hope for anymore in this country regarding ambitious transformational infrastructure projects. I know it has to pass through a still nearly paralyzed Senate which will likely require action over the fillibuster and we shouldn't be popping the corks prematurely, but...

...I do predict when we see whats in this bill we are going to collectively shit our pants. It's going to be that good.
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  #3096  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 4:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Busy Bee View Post
If I can make just ONE prediction:

I think we have been apprehensive in these parts about what is possible in Congress, easily for the last 10 years, but realistically for the last 40. Conservative ideology and chronic congressional dysfunction through obstruction-as-the-goal has jaded many about what we can realistically hope for anymore in this country regarding ambitious transformational infrastructure projects.[/B]
As I have shared elsewhere on this forum, I don't believe that true HSR is functionally necessary in most of the United States but there will be political pressure to build high speed lines because high speed trains attract a lot of attention.

But for most of the United States my hunch is that there is a lot more to be gained by upgrading major freight railroads to electric and double-tracking the intercity lines that are appropriate for expanded or new Amtrak services. The feds should also fund signaling upgrades so that we can get maximum capacity out of the existing lines and enable commuter rail on the expanded and electrified lines, where possible.


Relying on states to do in-state services is too inconsistent. The federal bill needs to be structured so there is a 90/10 fed/state funding split and then the federal bill needs to fund operation of passenger rail for 30 years. Otherwise we're going to see a repeat of the 2010 Tea Party stunts where several states gave away their money and Wisconsin abandoned u/c trainsets.
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  #3097  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 5:10 PM
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There are plans for Capitol Corridor to be electrified, I'm not exactly sure how far they are in that process though. Part of that is to divert freight to old tracks out in unpopulated areas.
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  #3098  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 7:09 PM
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California HSR has done so much harm to HSR developments across the US.

It has given opponents fuel to add to the fire that HSR is a losing proposition and will never come in even remotely close to the budget they originally proposed and deadlines are nothing more than a moving target.

California has the gold standard of how NOT to build HSR.
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  #3099  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 9:43 PM
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
Drum roll please...the broad details of Biden's infrastructure bill will be announced this week. Expect giant money for California's High Speed Rail system along with big money for electrified freight and passenger rail across the country. No telling what happens in Congress but the very real possibility exists that completion of CAHSR Phase 1 will be fully funded by the summer, with no way for Republicans to block its completion.
I'm kind of hoping for major LOSSAN corridor money since it's going to be a very very long wait for HSR. Give it the Caltrain treatment and then some (big ticket items like Del Mar tunnel).
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  #3100  
Old Posted Mar 29, 2021, 10:08 PM
artie bucco artie bucco is offline
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
California HSR has done so much harm to HSR developments across the US.

It has given opponents fuel to add to the fire that HSR is a losing proposition and will never come in even remotely close to the budget they originally proposed and deadlines are nothing more than a moving target.

California has the gold standard of how NOT to build HSR.
As opposed to all those other HSR projects currently under construction in the US.
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