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  #81  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:20 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
the metro east has got to be one of the most disjointed and uncentered significant sub-regions of a major MSA in the country.

ESL's nearly 80% population drop from 1950 peak is one of the worst urban implosions in american hostory.

and when they did build a large airport there, they built it 20 miles east of the river, close to absolutely nothing and no one.
Several cities just across state lines from a larger city seem cursed. Not only East St. Louis. Also see Gary and Camden. Or, to a lesser extent, Kansas City, KS.
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  #82  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:24 PM
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West Memphis, AR. Feels like the end of the world. You go from downtown Memphis to this incredible backwater.
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  #83  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:37 PM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
Several cities just across state lines from a larger city seem cursed. Not only East St. Louis. Also see Gary and Camden.
what's a little interesting about NWI is that Gary isn't the first city directly along the IL border, touching chicago, it's actually hammond, IN.

and while hammond certainly isn't a posterchild for american urban success, it has faired much better overall than Gary.


gary 1960: 178,320 (peak)
gary 2020: 69,093

change: -109,227 (-61.3%)



hammond 1960: 111,698 (peak)
hammond 2020: 77,879

change: -33,819 (-30.3%)



Much of Hammond's better outcome can be explained by Latinos spilling over the border from the SE side of chicago and backfilling in a lot of the white flight. Gary has not had such luck.

hammond is now plurality latino at 40.2% (with NH-whites in 2nd at 30.4%), while gary is super majority black at 79.1% with a latino share of only 7.6%.



of the major interior river cities where the other side of the river is in an entirely different state (STL, KC, memphis, Louisville, cincy), cincy seems like it fared the best with covington/newport.
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Sep 22, 2022 at 7:10 PM.
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  #84  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:47 PM
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If Chicago started to grow again, then Gary could get some spillover as well.
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  #85  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:49 PM
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Cairo is certainly a place that would be great for a city game like skylines or Sim City 4. Not sure about real life though and Richland, WA is similar in position.
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  #86  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:51 PM
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If Chicago started to grow again, then Gary could get some spillover as well.
Gary isn't really that well located. To put in perspective, Gary is about twice the distance from downtown Chicago as Newark, NJ is from Midtown Manhattan.
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  #87  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:51 PM
Kngkyle Kngkyle is offline
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Anyone else get the sense that Grand Rapids is one of the biggest American cities (>1M metro) that most people have never heard of?
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  #88  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:55 PM
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Anyone else get the sense that Grand Rapids is one of the biggest American cities (>1M metro) that most people have never heard of?
yep.

1. off the beaten path (it's not really on the way to anywhere else for most people, it's kinda hard to just incidentally "pass through" it)

2. no sports teams of note (pro or college)

3. the MSA is a bit over-inflated thanks to nearby muskegon and holland over on the lake. when i'm in GR, i don't really feel like i'm in a 1M+ MSA the same way i do as when i'm in, say, milwaukee.





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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
To put in perspective, Gary is about twice the distance from downtown Chicago as Newark, NJ is from Midtown Manhattan.
yeah, as the crow flies:

downtown chicago to downtown gary: 24 miles

midtown manhattan to downtown newark: 10 miles
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Last edited by Steely Dan; Sep 22, 2022 at 7:19 PM.
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  #89  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 6:57 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
Gary isn't really that well located. To put in perspective, Gary is about twice the distance from downtown Chicago as Newark, NJ is from Midtown Manhattan.
I imagine a 10% growth/decade Chicago would have sprawl somewhere and this might hit Gary eventually.
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  #90  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 7:00 PM
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I imagine a 10% growth/decade Chicago would have sprawl somewhere and this might hit Gary eventually.
the sprawl would occur in other parts of NWI long before any of that hypothetical growth meaningfully seeped into gary proper.

the huge elephant in the room here (and one that you may not fully appreciate as an outsider) is the racial dynamics at play.
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  #91  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 7:06 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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I imagine a 10% growth/decade Chicago would have sprawl somewhere and this might hit Gary eventually.
It would probably never go into Gary as long as greenfield development is easy in the Chicago region. The brownfield rehabilitation costs, extremely cheap land, and the long distance from major job centers don't seem to favor Gary as a bedroom community.
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  #92  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 7:19 PM
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These days cities like Detroit, Gary, East St. Louis have became so depopulated that many of their brownfield have became pretty much greenfield. It's crazy how people avoid them anyway. Stigma associated with them is way too strong.
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  #93  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 7:26 PM
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Ohio State has worked tirelessly for the past 30 years to keep UC out of the Big 10 or even play it during the regular season, since that would enable UC to be considered its peer.
This just isn't true. UC is not a AAU member which is one of the first things the Big 10 would look at. Also Ohio State has played Cincinatti 6 times in the past 30 years, more than any other in-state school.
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  #94  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 7:32 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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These days cities like Detroit, Gary, East St. Louis have became so depopulated that many of their brownfield have became pretty much greenfield. It's crazy how people avoid them anyway. Stigma associated with them is way too strong.
No... Brownfields can stay contaminated for centuries or longer. The city of Detroit has been sitting on the Uniroyal Tire factory brownfield site for over 40 years, partly because the land has to be remediated before it can be developed. It is theoretically a prime piece of real estate as it is located on the city's waterfront right next to the bridge to Belle Isle Park, but no private developer can justify the cost to develop it.

The cost of remediation for the property will be well into the 10s of millions of dollars. This would be a large line item even in a city with high land values, like NYC. In a city like Detroit putting 10s of millions of dollars into remediating a piece of property is basically just charity work, since the land values don't support that investment.
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  #95  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 7:42 PM
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No... Brownfields can stay contaminated for centuries or longer. The city of Detroit has been sitting on the Uniroyal Tire factory brownfield site for over 40 years, partly because the land has to be remediated before it can be developed. It is theoretically a prime piece of real estate as it is located on the city's waterfront right next to the bridge to Belle Isle Park, but no private developer can justify the cost to develop it.

The cost of remediation for the property will be well into the 10s of millions of dollars. This would be a large line item even in a city with high land values, like NYC. In a city like Detroit putting 10s of millions of dollars into remediating a piece of property is basically just charity work, since the land values don't support that investment.
I meant not industrial land, but residential ones that became so depopulated that even streets were removed. As the cities grew into the suburbs in the past, suburbs could grow into the cities.

I guess it doesn't qualify as brownfield, I don't know. We don't have "greenfield", "brownfield" concepts in Portuguese.
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  #96  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 8:15 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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Originally Posted by Steely Dan View Post
the sprawl would occur in other parts of NWI long before any of that hypothetical growth meaningfully seeped into gary proper.

the huge elephant in the room here (and one that you may not fully appreciate as an outsider) is the racial dynamics at play.
I could see Latino spillover eventually causing a resurgence of sorts for Gary.

There's also the tiny white neighborhood in Miller Beach of course. It could eventually expand further south and take over the entire enclave surrounded by parkland.
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  #97  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 8:16 PM
eschaton eschaton is offline
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I meant not industrial land, but residential ones that became so depopulated that even streets were removed. As the cities grew into the suburbs in the past, suburbs could grow into the cities.

I guess it doesn't qualify as brownfield, I don't know. We don't have "greenfield", "brownfield" concepts in Portuguese.
It's still not as cheap as undeveloped land, because often the houses have just collapsed into the ground and exist buried within the old basements. You need to excavate the whole site down to the former basement level and replace with clean fill.
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  #98  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 8:26 PM
iheartthed iheartthed is offline
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I meant not industrial land, but residential ones that became so depopulated that even streets were removed. As the cities grew into the suburbs in the past, suburbs could grow into the cities.
I don't think developers really build single family housing on brownfield anywhere in the U.S. I would guess that almost all SFH built on existing lots are a teardown/rebuilds to be occupied by the lot owner. Ironically, the only examples I can think of are in Detroit, where a private developer built SFH on existing lots.

It's easier for a developer to buy a farm and build a few dozens houses than for a developer to deal with buying a bunch of lots in a city.
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  #99  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 8:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Yuri View Post
I meant not industrial land, but residential ones that became so depopulated that even streets were removed. As the cities grew into the suburbs in the past, suburbs could grow into the cities.

I guess it doesn't qualify as brownfield, I don't know. We don't have "greenfield", "brownfield" concepts in Portuguese.
Property titles also become more difficult when dealing with former residential vacant land. Cities lose track of who owns the land, and eminent domain can be time consuming and expensive.

One of the reasons Forgottonia is less developed than the rest of Illinois is because the Federal Government sold the land to military veterans who had zero intention of living in Illinois and just resold the titles to random speculators.

Even the simplest infrastructure projects took years of untangling the chain of ownership.

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  #100  
Old Posted Sep 22, 2022, 8:45 PM
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Originally Posted by iheartthed View Post
No... Brownfields can stay contaminated for centuries or longer. The city of Detroit has been sitting on the Uniroyal Tire factory brownfield site for over 40 years, partly because the land has to be remediated before it can be developed. It is theoretically a prime piece of real estate as it is located on the city's waterfront right next to the bridge to Belle Isle Park, but no private developer can justify the cost to develop

Chicago’s major brownfield on Lake Michigan, Southworks, is probably going to become a full fledged natural wildlife reserve faster than a realistic decontamination plan is made at this rate.











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