Where Is The Rust Belt?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by edale

How much of that 'growth' is just sprawl moving out to counties that already had significant population centers? If the Detroit Metro sprawled out to Washtenaw and Genesee counties, Ann Arbor and Flint would be added to the CSA total, thus making it appear like the CSA is growing when it's really just sprawling. Cleveland could have a bit of the same scenario given all the smaller population centers that exist in NE Ohio. But Cleveland's home county (Cuyahoga) directly abuts Akron's home county (Summit), so less sprawl was needed to connect the two. Really, Cleveland and Akron should be a single MSA, but I guess that's a different discussion!

I calculated using the current CSA definition so that it was consistent.

The ratio of core MSA to CSA has has been between 80-86% since 1920. It has started to slide back towards 80% in recent decades, which it hasn't dipped below since the early 1900s, but has yet to fall below that threshold. Metro Detroit's counties have pretty large land areas, and Wayne is still the only one that has been almost completely built out. So despite how far from the city the region has sprawled, it is still mostly contained in the original footprint of the MSA.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I calculated using the current CSA definition so that it was consistent.

The ratio of core MSA to CSA has has been between 80-86% since 1920. It has started to slide back towards 80% in recent decades, which it hasn't dipped below since the early 1900s, but has yet to fall below that threshold. Metro Detroit's counties have pretty large land areas, and Wayne is still the only one that has been almost completely built out. So despite how far from the city the region has sprawled, it is still mostly contained in the original footprint of the MSA.

I guess the only exception is Ann Arbor which is linked to the main urban footprint. And of course, Detroit has been "invading" Flint and Monroe for a while. Note how much faster southeastern Genesee and northern Monroe grow: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/michigan/admin/ . And of course, Livingston. Insane growth rates till recently. The classic American booming exurb.

To me "Detroit metro area" is Detroit CSA minus Lenawee County.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

I guess the only exception is Ann Arbor which is linked to the main urban footprint. And of course, Detroit has been "invading" Flint and Monroe for a while. Note how much faster southeastern Genesee and northern Monroe grow: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/michigan/admin/ . And of course, Livingston. Insane growth rates till recently. The classic American booming exurb.

To me "Detroit metro area" is Detroit CSA minus Lenawee County.

Yes, Ann Arbor (Washtenaw County) is directly west of Wayne County. The city of Ann Arbor created a Green Belt almost 20 years ago which was in part aimed at blocking sprawl from Wayne County.

Oakland County does sprawl north towards Flint along the I-75 corridor, but there are still large parts of northern Oakland that remain quasi rural.

[Steely Dan]

this article is several years old now, but still totally pertinent to this discussion of "what is rust-belt" and how Gary fits into the story.

Gary is probably ground-zero for illustrating how industrial automation killed the american working class dream.

White flight followed factory jobs out of Gary, Indiana. Black people didn't have a choice


the article really drives home how, even in towns like Gary where the local steel mill didn't close down, automation utterly destroyed employment numbers. and then, like in so many other rust belt cities, as the jobs started evaporating, all of the white people moved away, either to the burbs or beyond, leaving behind a super-majority black, hollowed-out shell of a city in ruins in their wake.



also, this quote from the article really stood out to me:

Sitting next to Walter is a childhood friend, Ruben Roy, 85, who joins him daily for coffee and a chat. Ruben listens and nods yes, and then adds: “I started off working with a shovel and pick, shoveling and picking at things, but those jobs are gone. They got machines to shovel and pick now. The world has changed. Back in my day you needed a strong back and a weak mind to get a job. Now you need a weak back and a strong mind.”

[Centropolis]

Originally Posted by pj3000

Massive flight from urban centers resulting in an ever-expanding "metro area" does not mask decline.

you mean St. Louis County expanding into the ozark mountains with a million people didnt mask an apocalyptic urban collapse?

Actually it kind of did locally, the SW outskirts of StL feel like Atlanta or Nashville.

[Steely Dan]

here's a list of all US municpalities that once peaked over 50,000 people and now have less than half of their peak peak population as of census 2020:


City................................Peak..........2020......Percentage Drop

Highland Park, MI.............52,959..........8,977.......-83.0%
East St. Louis, IL.............82,366...........18,469......-77.6%
Johnstown, PA................67, 327..........18,411......-72.7%
McKeesport, PA...............55,355...........17,727......-68.0%
Detroit, MI.....................1,849,568.......639,111.....-65.4%
St. Louis, MO..................856,796.........301,578.....-64.8%
Youngstown, OH..............170,002.........60,068.......-64.7%
Gary, IN.........................178,320.........69,093.......-61.3%
Cleveland, OH.................914,808.........372,624......-59.3%
Flint, MI.........................196,940.........81,252.......-58.7%
Wheeling, WV..................61,659...........27,052......-56.1%
Pittsburgh, PA.................676,806.........302,971.....-55.2%
Saginaw, MI....................98,265..........44,202.......-55.0%
East Chicago, IN..............57,669...........26,370......-54.3%
Niagara Falls, NY..............102,394.........48,671.......-52.5%
Buffalo, NY.....................580,132.........278,349......-52.0%
Chester, PA......................66,039..........32,605.......-50.6%



when we map them out, it's a pretty good proxy for "where is the rust belt?"