CHICAGO: ORD & MDW discussion

[N830MH]

Originally Posted by rivernorthlurker

https://www.journal-topics.com/artic...28-completion/

Wow! That’s awesome! Thanks for the update. I’ll believe it when I see it! Hope they starts construction soon.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by rivernorthlurker

https://www.journal-topics.com/artic...28-completion/

I was interested in the credit rating, so I read it. Here it is: https://www.fitchratings.com/researc...ble-17-08-2022

Basically, it's what you'd expect, but it's good to get some validation. O'hare it critical to the nation's air traffic, its finances are in great shape and the Modernization Plan is excellent.

[jonesrmj]

Originally Posted by rivernorthlurker

https://www.journal-topics.com/artic...28-completion/

Nice updates! Really looking forward to the completion of this project!

To add on to this, I just checked the ord21 website and found this new rendering of the overview of the whole project. I wonder if this is the shape of the redesigned global terminal that people were talking about earlier since it still maintains a space for the star as originally planned but also has a more traditional design to help with energy costs.

There also appears to be 2 A380 gates so that will bring the total to 4 A380 gates including the other 2 in Terminal 5 so plenty of capacity for the superjumbo if more airlines decided to bring it to ORD.



https://ord21.com/home/pages/default.aspx

[twister244]

Great to hear about the additional small details. Also happy to hear about an official "Grand Opening" of T5 this upcoming year. Hopefully that means new/upgraded security checkpoints......

I'm sure this has been answered before, but is the new underground tunnel connecting to the new satellite going to be like the existing connection from B->C, or is it going to have a transit component to it (a train/people mover)? Also, will this replace the existing B->C connection, or simply augment it?

On the Global Terminal front, I feel like we shouldn't read too much into specific gate information. Given construction won't even start until 2027/2028, there could be a TON of design changes if the industry moves in one direction vs another. I'm sure things could be tweaked in the design plans to accommodate more 380s... Or less given how much United is buying into the 787s right now.

Speaking of the industry..... Is it too early to begin speculating on the future of Midway given the complete meltdown of Southwest currently underway? There's no way this doesn't have major long-term impacts on the company. They can either invest big-time to revamp the company, or they are going to slowly wither away. This week has proven they need to rethink their model and practices to stay alive.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by twister244

Speaking of the industry..... Is it too early to begin speculating on the future of Midway given the complete meltdown of Southwest currently underway?

If this current meltdown represents some sort of existential crisis for Southwest, and they end up radically reducing their MDW footprint, I'd expect other LCC's like Frontier or Allegiant to eat up that unused capacity.

With chicago's huge amount of O&D traffic, MDW is a natural fit for any domestically-oriented LCC.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by twister244

I'm sure this has been answered before, but is the new underground tunnel connecting to the new satellite going to be like the existing connection from B->C, or is it going to have a transit component to it (a train/people mover)? Also, will this replace the existing B->C connection, or simply augment it?

My understanding is that the the existing B->C tunnel will remain as-is. The new tunnel from OGT to S1 and S2 will have space for a people mover but it will not be constructed until S3 and S4 are built, which is a later phase that is dependent on hitting passenger targets. So in the first phase the tunnel from OGT to S1 and S2 will be pedestrian only, with the OGT to S1 having a sterile corridor to allow for international arrivals at S1. S2 will be domestic only.

The walk from the far tip of S2 to the tip of B concourse will be quite the hike but United could always run a shuttle bus if needed.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

If this current meltdown represents some sort of existential crisis for Southwest, and they end up radically reducing their MDW footprint, I'd expect other LCC's like Frontier or Allegiant to eat up that unused capacity.

With chicago's huge amount of O&D traffic, MDW is a natural fit for any domestically-oriented LCC.

I agree - And would welcome that. Get the shitty LCC's out of O'hare so it can cater to the United/Deltas of the world. Hoping the OGT has new international lounges. That would be amazing.

[kbud]

Originally Posted by twister244

I agree - And would welcome that. Get the shitty LCC's out of O'hare so it can cater to the United/Deltas of the world. Hoping the OGT has new international lounges. That would be amazing.

I’d imagine there will be a new Star lounge and a new One World lounge. I’m more surprised there aren’t any new lounges in T5 besides Delta. Qatar, Emirates, Etihad and any other Star and OW carriers that only use T5 have horrible lounge experiences. T5 was justified for needing more lounges and Delta is it that I know of.

Also to a previous post, do you know of any airport in the world where someone would have to walk from the end of a 2nd satellite concourse to the main baggage claim (or at least that distance) or god forbid connect to a flight at B17?

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

If this current meltdown represents some sort of existential crisis for Southwest, and they end up radically reducing their MDW footprint, I'd expect other LCC's like Frontier or Allegiant to eat up that unused capacity.

With chicago's huge amount of O&D traffic, MDW is a natural fit for any domestically-oriented LCC.

Has an airline ever had this bad a meltdown that appears to be largely self-inflicted? Maybe they'll rethink their insane 5-chained-flight itineraries and move to a more standard hub and spoke model, which would... be better for MDW?

I'm stuck on hold with Southwest after thy canceled my flight back to Chicago tomorrow (along with 2/3 of their flights...) and for some reason won't let you make changes online if you have a lap child (because... that makes perfect sense?). I'm guessing I'd get back to Chicago from Reno faster via Amtrak than by rebooking, so I might end up getting my parents to drive me to SFO to fly United back to Chicago.... (Airfare for flights that would be reasonable to take for an infant from Reno over the next few days is predictably insane).

[N830MH]

Originally Posted by twister244

I agree - And would welcome that. Get the shitty LCC's out of O'hare so it can cater to the United/Deltas of the world. Hoping the OGT has new international lounges. That would be amazing.

Not nice! You can’t do that. LCC is here to stay. They are not going anywhere! They always welcome. It’s free country. They are not leaving from O’Hare!

[k1052]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

Has an airline ever had this bad a meltdown that appears to be largely self-inflicted? Maybe they'll rethink their insane 5-chained-flight itineraries and move to a more standard hub and spoke model, which would... be better for MDW?

I'm stuck on hold with Southwest after thy canceled my flight back to Chicago tomorrow (along with 2/3 of their flights...) and for some reason won't let you make changes online if you have a lap child (because... that makes perfect sense?). I'm guessing I'd get back to Chicago from Reno faster via Amtrak than by rebooking, so I might end up getting my parents to drive me to SFO to fly United back to Chicago.... (Airfare for flights that would be reasonable to take for an infant from Reno over the next few days is predictably insane).

SWA has had some pretty bad IT meltdowns in the past, which this is sort of an extension of that (antiquated scheduling system). Then there was the year or so they tried to convince everyone including themselves they could turn planes in 20 minutes which was disastrous. I fly them as little as possible.

I don't see any reason that the LCCs should be exiled from ORD but I wouldn't mind sticking them all in their own terminal to keep their chaos contained. SWA is not going to move to hubnd spoke probaably ever or give up any MDW gates which they over utilize to begin with.

[SIGSEGV]

Originally Posted by k1052

SWA has had some pretty bad IT meltdowns in the past, which this is sort of an extension of that (antiquated scheduling system). Then there was the year or so they tried to convince everyone including themselves they could turn planes in 20 minutes which was disastrous. I fly them as little as possible.

I don't see any reason that the LCCs should be exiled from ORD but I wouldn't mind sticking them all in their own terminal to keep their chaos contained. SWA is not going to move to hubnd spoke probaably ever or give up any MDW gates which they over utilize to begin with.

They rebooked me 4 (!!) days later. We'll see if that flight gets off the ground (and if my bags ever make it... Going through Denver so doubtful). 15,000 cancelled flights is... A lot of irate people. Probably over a million? Given that large portions of the country never fly, southwest will have to steeply discount fares to win back market share.

Now that United doesn't have change fees, and often has cheaper fares (even accounting for checked bags) without the boarding circus, really southwest's main advantage is that mdw is so much faster to get to than ord...

[ardecila]

I feel for the people stuck, but I'm mainly a business or leisure traveler now - I would never dream of trying to fly somewhere during the holidays. I love flying Southwest out of MDW (esp since I live south of Madison St) and I haven't had any serious issues flying them over the past few years.

It seems like this kind of chaos is just par for the course now - it's Southwest taking the brunt this time, but next year it could be AA or United. Air travel at the holidays is just impossibly cursed - winter weather, airplanes, and huge travel volumes don't mix. I don't know why people even bother - use Zoom or FaceTime for the holidays, and then travel to see your loved ones at a different time of year.

Making it worse, the working-age people who tend to travel during the holidays are also the most sensitive to disruptions, since they have to travel within very narrow windows proscribed by their jobs and family obligations. For college students, seniors, etc a flight delay is less of a catastrophe.

I will stick with my Southwest Rapid Rewards account - maybe my miles will count for double if they lose a lot of business! Hopefully they find a way to fix their tech issues and come out stronger.

[twister244]

Originally Posted by ardecila

I feel for the people stuck, but I'm mainly a business or leisure traveler now - I would never dream of trying to fly somewhere during the holidays. I love flying Southwest out of MDW (esp since I live south of Madison St) and I haven't had any serious issues flying them over the past few years.

It seems like this kind of chaos is just par for the course now - it's Southwest taking the brunt this time, but next year it could be AA or United. Air travel at the holidays is just impossibly cursed - winter weather, airplanes, and huge travel volumes don't mix. I don't know why people even bother - use Zoom or FaceTime for the holidays, and then travel to see your loved ones at a different time of year.

Making it worse, the working-age people who tend to travel during the holidays are also the most sensitive to disruptions, since they have to travel within very narrow windows proscribed by their jobs and family obligations. For college students, seniors, etc a flight delay is less of a catastrophe.

I will stick with my Southwest Rapid Rewards account - maybe my miles will count for double if they lose a lot of business! Hopefully they find a way to fix their tech issues and come out stronger.

Ok - Yes.... Storms impact air travel, but SW clearly did far far far worse than the other airlines. If we were talking about Frontier or Spirit, then it wouldn't even be a news story because people expect those carriers to be shitty. But SW has this reputation behind it as being the cool low cost airline that will deliver the same level of service as United/Delta or better. That image has now officially been shattered.

I flew SW out of O'Hare in May and had a horrible experience with them. They've clearly lost their way, and unless they change things internally (and fast), it will start to reflect on their bottom line. If I was one of the customers that got shit canned during this, I would never fly with SW ever again. Scale that out across thousands upon thousands of travelers, and you have a business problem.

Anyways - Tying this back to Steely's comment..... I could see MDW becoming a mini-hub for LCC airlines that may not want to pay the fees of O'Hare to operate out of if SW begins to free up some gates under a reduced capacity in the future.

[nomarandlee]

Originally Posted by twister244

Anyways - Tying this back to Steely's comment..... I could see MDW becoming a mini-hub for LCC airlines that may not want to pay the fees of O'Hare to operate out of if SW begins to free up some gates under a reduced capacity in the future.

Knowing that any speculation is all guesswork without any deep industry insider knowledge I could very well see after all this Southwest adopting a more hub-spoke configuration, even if still not to the extant of its rivals. The potential cogs in having crews dispersed all over the nation just lends itself to a cascade of issues system wide when negative conditions arise.

If that scenario plays out my guess is Southwest will increase their position at Denver to an even greater degree, with Denver being THE major SWA hub. SWA's has effectively maxed themselves at Midway which means if they do centralize they likely would have to grow at an expanded O'Hare. I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see Delta uptick an increased presence at O'Hare. These two moves would in fact push the other LCC's to Midway filling up abandoned SWA's slots at Midway.

[OrdoSeclorum]

Originally Posted by nomarandlee

If that scenario plays out my guess is Southwest will increase their position at Denver to an even greater degree, with Denver being THE major SWA hub. SWA's has effectively maxed themselves at Midway which means if they do centralize they likely would have to grow at an expanded O'Hare.

Man, I know DEN is growing, but I just don't understand how it works well as a hub. It's obviously in the middle and has lots of capacity. But it's also really far from where everyone lives and where most people are going. STL > MDW > CLE or something like that makes sense. STL > DEN > MSP seems like a nightmare. Obviously OKC > DEN > SLC is a lot more like the Midway routes Southwest flies now, but there's just a lot fewer of those passengers.

[Kngkyle]

Originally Posted by OrdoSeclorum

Man, I know DEN is growing, but I just don't understand how it works well as a hub. It's obviously in the middle and has lots of capacity. But it's also really far from where everyone lives and where most people are going. STL > MDW > CLE or something like that makes sense. STL > DEN > MSP seems like a nightmare. Obviously OKC > DEN > SLC is a lot more like the Midway routes Southwest flies now, but there's just a lot fewer of those passengers.

No large US airline operates out of just a single hub... they have a network of hubs that facilitate convenient connections throughout the country. Denver is a great hub for East <-> West connections which is a ton of traffic. It's not meant for STL-XXX-CLE. It's also the only city in its region that could support a large hub. SLC is technically a Delta hub, but a pretty small one... especially compared to DEN. Denver is probably the best hub city in the country because there is simply no alternative... which is why 3 airlines have a hub there. I could see it surpassing ATL in the next decade or two.

Southwest already has de facto hubs to facilitate connections, they are just also willing to fly nonhub to nonhub if demand warrants it. That practice (along with many others.. it seems) is what put them in a worse situation than the other airlines.

[twister244]

Looks like Terminal 5 had its official "opening" ceremony the other day:

https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news...l-5-extension/

New concessions will still take a while to go in, along with new art installations. According to the press releases, there are new security checkpoints. Has anyone noticed this? The last time I flew out of 5 at the end of October, the security checkpoints still seemed very shitty and temporary.

[twister244]

Also some fun tidbits on how we performed this past year:

https://www.dailyherald.com/news/202...ound-from-2021

The FAA counted 711,561 operations at O'Hare in 2022, trailing Hartsfield-Jackson's 724,145. That's a difference of 12,584, about 34 daily flights.

At the same time, O'Hare continues to climb out of its COVID-19 blues with a 4% spurt in flights last year compared to 684,201 arrivals and departures in 2021.

In comparison, Hartsfield-Jackson saw a 2% increase in operations.

Not sure if this closing of the gap with Atlanta is a blip in year-to-year noise, or part of a trend where we may be able to close the gap. I suspect eventually we will get there after the expansion is complete. Atlanta is going to struggle to expand in the long run given they just don't have the space O'Hare does - https://www.ajc.com/business/airport...MF9YyKcnb9ogN/

When you do a Google Map comparison between O'Hare and Hartsfield-Jackson, it really stands out just how massive the airfield of O'hare is. Not just in terms of runways, but the vast amount of space O'hare has moving forward now to build in the long-run.

[kbud]

Originally Posted by twister244

Looks like Terminal 5 had its official "opening" ceremony the other day:

https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news...l-5-extension/

New concessions will still take a while to go in, along with new art installations. According to the press releases, there are new security checkpoints. Has anyone noticed this? The last time I flew out of 5 at the end of October, the security checkpoints still seemed very shitty and temporary.

Other than Delta I’m really surprised there are no new lounges going in. A lack of gates, more retail, and space for lounges from the airlines were the needs stated for the T5 expansion.