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  #201  
Old Posted May 31, 2017, 5:03 PM
Vin Vin is offline
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Seriously, you guys still think that adding density has nothing to do with the provision of affordable housing for working people in this city?

1. Vancouver's West End: If not for the intense build-up of high-density apartments in the West End district during the 60s, where would all the affordable rental apartments of downtown be today? The higher density walk-ups at Metrotown and other neighbourhoods that provide affordability are housing that the previous generation did not say NO to. Hence this generation reaps the benefits. Sure, they are getting old and would be torn down to be replaced by the even higher density condos. But if we don't build today, would the future generations have affordable housing to stay?

2. Downtown condos: Where would the many young professionals/students be living today if high-density districts were never implemented in Yaletown, Olympic Village, or Tinseltown neighbourhoods, or if these areas remain mostly industrial today? People would be renting in run-down basements all over East Vancouver, driving prices up even more over there, or living further and further out into the suburbs, creating nightmarish urban sprawls.

3. Same argument can be said about all the high density areas of Joyce, Metrotown, Brentwood, Lougheed, Coquitlam Central, New West Waterfront, Surrey Central, Richmond city centre, etc. Where would the thousands and thousands of people living in these areas go to? They would be spread out all over living in SFUs, owning personal vehicles and clogging up the choked road system even more.

Sure, condominiums today are getting very pricey, but without these high density residences, the affordability issue here would be much much worse.
Building more density isn't the only answer, but it has helped in the affordability of living in the Lower Mainland, and other cities all over the world, for centuries. The only time you don't need added density is when people are leaving town due to an economic collapse (Detroit), a major disaster (New Orleans/Chenobyl), or that you live as a hermit out in the woods.
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  #202  
Old Posted May 31, 2017, 7:42 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by mezzanine View Post
I don't think you can find a study that "proves" that (how would you set up the control vs study situation? how would you eliminate other variables like economic downturns?) but a non-partisan californian govt anaylsis suggest that building more housing/density helps moderate prices. an important point is that upmarket housing depreciates and decreases in value as it ages.



This article is parsed in this WaPo article. another point is that in neighbourhoods where there is intense development existing ppl are less likely to be displaced. if there are renovictions in the west end, for instance, what would it be like if there were no condo construction in the DT penninsula?



Building more density isn't the only answer (mandating a greater % of larger units for families, further disincentives for speculation, etc) but IMO it would be a mistake to ignore building density. We'd wind up like san francisco.
Nope, sorry but that's just wrong.

..There is real urgency in the situation, before prices soar dangerously higher and this becomes a big bubble. Only steps to control demand can offer near-term relief,” writes BMO Chief Economist Douglas Porter in a recent research note.

It takes years for supply-side measures, such as releasing more land for development or approving developments more quickly, to have a real impact on pricing. By then, the market may be even more overheated, Porter suggests. Already, in February, the average price of a home, including condos, in the Greater Toronto Area had soared to $875,983. That’s up a blistering 27.7 per cent from February 2016, according to TREB.

Conventional bubble wisdom suggests “cooling demand” is the fastest-acting response to price gains like that, he adds. “Any moderate increase in housing supply will be swallowed whole in the great maw of raging demand.”

Porter refers to several past bubbles from 1637 to 2006 to demonstrate his point. “Do you think the best remedy to the US housing bubble in 2006 was to build yet more homes in Vegas, Phoenix and Florida?” he asks....(bold mine)

http://news.buzzbuzzhome.com/2017/04...economist.html

Canada is already churning out housing in numbers well above the long term average:
.. As Canadian Business noted, Toronto’s population growth between 2011 and 2016 was the slowest it’s been in at least 40 years.

Porter suggested that, despite what the industry is saying, there is little evidence of an overall supply shortage.

“Housing starts in Toronto and Vancouver have been chugging along at almost 70,000 units per year recently, an all-time high, while overall Canadian starts are above demographic demand at 200,000 units in the past year,” he wrote...

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/02..._14774526.html

The problem is you're not looking at this for what it is: a classic commodity bubble.
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  #203  
Old Posted May 31, 2017, 8:27 PM
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mezzanine mezzanine is offline
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Nope, sorry but that's just wrong.
...
The problem is you're not looking at this for what it is: a classic commodity bubble.
IMO supply is not the only answer to the housing crisis, but a really important part of the answer. Densifying shouldn't be curtailed.

My argument is .... San Francisco.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/freee...ousing-markets

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d5bdc7209783

Quote:
That means if San Francisco wants the cost of housing to go down, there are three clear ways to get there. The city could build more of the stuff. Or it could hold out for falling incomes or job losses among the people who compete for housing. The second two plans seem counterproductive (although there may in fact be frustrated residents rooting for those strategies).

If San Francisco wanted to revert to what rents were in the early 1980s, according to Fischer’s model, the city would need to add another 200,000 housing units. Or the people currently living there could take massive pay cuts — the equivalent of a 44 percent drop in their salaries. Or it might do the trick if half of all workers in San Francisco lost their jobs.
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  #204  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2017, 5:32 PM
Vin Vin is offline
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Nope, sorry but that's just wrong.

The problem is you're not looking at this for what it is: a classic commodity bubble.
A commodity only becomes very expensive when there is limited supply, either due to artificial imposition or otherwise. An example is the cartel restrictions of the release of diamonds to enter the market. Otherwise the rocks would be dirt cheap.
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  #205  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2017, 6:04 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
A commodity only becomes very expensive when there is limited supply, either due to artificial imposition or otherwise. An example is the cartel restrictions of the release of diamonds to enter the market. Otherwise the rocks would be dirt cheap.
A number of factors including foreign buyers, speculators and the psychology of a bubble are at play. But again, according to your mindset, the best way for the USA to solve it's rocketing homes prices in 2006 would have been to build more homes in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Miami etc. After all there was demand, buyers were scooping them up. And yet we all know how that played out.

It is not "different here" or in Toronto. A bubble is a bubble is a bubble.
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  #206  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2017, 7:28 PM
whatnext whatnext is offline
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Originally Posted by Vin View Post
A commodity only becomes very expensive when there is limited supply, either due to artificial imposition or otherwise. An example is the cartel restrictions of the release of diamonds to enter the market. Otherwise the rocks would be dirt cheap.
Some more reading for you:

Foreign Investors Now Targeting Surrey Pre Sales

It wouldn’t be a typical day in Vancouver real estate without another debate over supply. The latest numbers out from UDI (Urban Development Institute) highlights new construction is far outpacing population growth. Metro Vancouver’s net population change was down 11% from the same quarter last year and down 26% from the five year average. Further, The current ratio of 1.3 new residents per housing start is well below the five year average of 2.1 new residents per housing start....

http://vancitycondoguide.com/still-b...ling-offshore/
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  #207  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2017, 8:35 PM
GMasterAres GMasterAres is offline
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As a few people have mentioned, it is not just supply or demand (or both), but there are other factors. Speculation is a big one. Unfortunately speculation is one of the few factors that can break the general economic rules of supply and demand. That's why stock prices cannot be predicted mathematically with any accuracy. Or the best football team doesn't always beat the second best.

Human factors.

That said, if you just look at supply and demand, economics 101 states that if prices increase, generally demand for the good decreases. The opposite is true of supply whereas as prices increase, supply typically increases to attempt to cash in. That means that generally they work in lock step and you can't just blame 1 or the other for high prices.

You have to look at them as a unit and understand that if:

A. current prices result in
B. sales then
C. the market increases because clearly demand is high enough to sell and prices are clearly not high enough to result in less demand

So when they target demand specifically aka by cutting out a segment of the market like foreign investors, the relationship should result in the current supply being greater than the demand or at least that is the goal. This results in the price of goods flat lining or decreasing in an attempt to entice more demand. Ultimately the utopian goal is for demand and supply to be equal.

In the case of housing, there are a lot of human factors that enter into the equation which is why just focusing on supply and demand is foolhardy. For example, the cost of building a single unit in Vancouver is different from in Richmond, or Surrey, or Burnaby. Even costs of various types of units cost differently in the same city.

Also consumers are looking for varying levels of goods. We seem to lump all "housing" together, but that's like saying every car on the road is exactly the same. They aren't. Some people want or need an SUV, others a sports car, or other a 4-door sedan. They are all different products that have different levels of supply and demand associated based on the market looking.

So saying "densify more" is also foolhardy because if you build 10 million new condos that is like saying "we'll reduce car prices by building 10 million more pickup trucks." What about all the consumers that don't want or need a pickup truck? I have a wife and child and we're looking to add to our family.

I am NOT in the market, nor ever will be, for a 1 bedroom condo to live in. So you could build 10 million more and that won't change the fact I am in the market segment looking for 3+ bedroom something near where I work.

Unfortunately all the above I just stated is too long for twitter of sound bites on the news, so everyone just boils things down to surface arguments that actually have nothing to do with cause or effect.

That means those saying MORE SUPPLY are probably as right as those saying LESS DEMAND and by right I mean making things too simplistic which leads to governments knee jerk reacting to headlines and passing legislature that is not well thought out and doesn't actually address the real problem.

That said, the last post above from whatnext about foreign investors targeting Surrey, yup. Because the prices are low in Surrey and guess what, it is resulting in developers jacking up prices. Look into the Park Boulevard thread to get an idea how Concord has in essence doubled the price of 1 bedroom condos in an area and are pretty much specifically targeting investors be them foreign or domestic.

Human factor popping up again... plenty of supply... but human (developer) greed breaks the synergy of supply and demand. That said, if all the units sell for the high prices, then isn't that how capitalism is supposed to work?

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  #208  
Old Posted Jun 1, 2017, 11:25 PM
trofirhen trofirhen is offline
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takin' it to the streets ...

Not sure if renting is a valid topic here, and not just purchasing of real estate, but it all involves housing, so I put it in this thread.
The point is that at least some people are banding together to fight the exorbitant cost of living in Vancouver. Old news? Maybe. But you have to start somewhere.
Hopefully, this will gain momentum as time goes by, because something, somewhere, is terribly wrong if you can't find a place to live, or if 65% of your income goes into your rent.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/housing-crisis-...nion-1.3439812
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  #209  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2017, 12:26 AM
WBC WBC is offline
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The other problem is that government does not really control supply. Government does not build housing. They at best re-zone. Even if tomorrow they re-zoned entire MetorVan for high density residential that does not mean that developers would start building 10 times more units then before. Some developers are more then happy to sit on land for years and decades until they get the deal right. They are not stupid - they are not just going to build to flood the market and get themselves in trouble.

Where I think the government made a colossal mistake (in terms of affordability) is when they got out of building co-op housing (like they do in Northern Europe). IMHO, CHMC should be in the business of underwriting co-op housing and not insuring private mortgages.
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  #210  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2017, 1:03 AM
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Originally Posted by WBC View Post
The other problem is that government does not really control supply. Government does not build housing. They at best re-zone. Even if tomorrow they re-zoned entire MetorVan for high density residential that does not mean that developers would start building 10 times more units then before. Some developers are more then happy to sit on land for years and decades until they get the deal right. They are not stupid - they are not just going to build to flood the market and get themselves in trouble.
But it would ease speculation.

Most lots in Metro Vancouver are large 50 to 60 foot wide lots. Sub divide those then, in essence, you have created a lot of new land. Plus, you won't have to rely on the condo cartel to develop these small lots. Everybody gets a chance to get into the development business.

If the laws of supply and demand don't apply to Vancouver real estate, ask yourself this... If tomorrow the ALR was let go to residential, you really think that wouldn't have a downward push on real estate prices?

Any city that has surging population and little if any land reserve = high prices. Cities with lots of land = moderate prices. That seems like supply and demand to me.
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  #211  
Old Posted Jun 2, 2017, 1:37 AM
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Releasing the ALR would not ease prices. Has the city rezoning of industrial land eased residential prices one bit? Has building up the mountian in north and west van eased prices?
Any your example of breaking up 50 and 60ft lots has been going on for well over a decade. Heck in east van a large swath in Cedar cottage and norquay allows for duplexes on a 33ft lot. You know what happened to prices? That 1.2 Million home became a 1.8M home a small developer builds a duplex and now each duplex goes for 1.2M. So you know get half the home for the same price. The reason? A home will sell for the most the market will pay for it and no less. If people are willing to pay 1.2M for a home, developers will charge that.
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  #212  
Old Posted Aug 24, 2017, 7:52 PM
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Add the film industry to the list of those who hurt by foreign buyers:

Adam Hogarth’s job challenge is a byproduct of Vancouver’s empty-home crisis and the freak show that is the region’s real estate market.

Mr. Hogarth is a location scout for television shows and he’s often on the hunt for old buildings. They don’t always have to be charming or quaint, but to fit the script, they should have the patina of a building several decades old. But Vancouver’s current lust for redevelopment means the old buildings are coming down at a rapid pace: It is a city erasing itself.

He says it’s a worrying trend for an industry that contributes 25,000 direct jobs to the economy. Vancouver has long been the chameleon for the film and TV industry, usually in the role of middle-class American city. But as historic buildings get demolished in favour of the generic and new, the city’s “look” is becoming a lot more homogeneous....

...“Shaughnessy is difficult to scout because it’s hard to reach the people who own the houses because they don’t live in the houses most of the time. A huge number of the houses are sitting empty and you know they are sitting empty if you look through the gate and the grass is overgrown and one or two of the windows are broken or whatever. Nobody is living there. And if they are, it’s maybe one person and you might, if you are lucky, be able to get a phone number for a property manager that would simply tell you the owners aren’t interested because they live some place else....

..He says the television series Timeless, which shot in Vancouver for one season but moved to Los Angeles, may have been, at least partly, a casualty of the region’s new generic look.

The show’s production designer John Marcynuk was quoted in a Globe and Mail article earlier this year saying that it was becoming tougher to film period pieces in Vancouver because the city “doesn’t preserve its history, it reinvents it.” ...(bold mine)

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real...ticle36030998/
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  #213  
Old Posted Sep 6, 2017, 7:16 PM
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High housing costs impacting the ability to get teachers:

Is Vancouver housing too expensive for teachers?

Katharine Shipley, president of the Vancouver Secondary Teachers’ Association thinks the sky-high housing costs could be deterring potential teachers from taking some of the 342 new jobs created after last fall’s Supreme Court of Canada decision. That decision restores rules about class sizes, the numbers of specialist teachers and how many special-needs students can be in one class that were stripped from teachers’ contracts in 2002.

Districts throughout the province are scrambling to hire about 2,600 new teachers, and Shipley says she thinks Vancouver may be at a disadvantage because of sky-high housing prices when it comes to attracting and keeping regular teachers and teachers on call.

She says more than 80 teachers have left Vancouver for other districts. When members call her to tell her they’re leaving, they often say it’s because they’ve bought a house somewhere more affordable, such as the Okanagan or Maple Ridge, or because they already live in the suburbs and the recent hiring surge is their chance to finally work closer to home...


http://www.vancourier.com/opinion/ho...ver-1.22444956
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  #214  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2017, 9:53 AM
Vin Vin is offline
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CoV not supplying enough housing.

Sobering....

http://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vanco...age-udi-report
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  #215  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2017, 10:18 AM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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It's almost as if thousands of multi-millionaires from outside Canada are buying everything in presales not open to regular Vancouverites and the government is doing nothing to protect its citizens.
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  #216  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2017, 12:13 AM
szechuansean szechuansean is offline
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Thousands of multi-millionaires from outside Canada are buying everything in presales not open to regular Vancouverites and the government is doing nothing to protect its citizens.
Have you been to pre sale event lately?

"Diversity is our strength."
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  #217  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2017, 12:29 AM
Pinion Pinion is offline
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Have you been to pre sale event lately?

"Diversity is our strength."
Not lately, I've been priced out of the city and am leaving Vancouver entirely, but every single one I have been to has been 90+% Chinese customers while non-Chinese are treated like lost puppies by staff (outside of the north shore at least).

90+% Chinese is the opposite of diversity.
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  #218  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2017, 4:23 AM
szechuansean szechuansean is offline
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Originally Posted by Pinion View Post
Not lately, I've been priced out of the city and am leaving Vancouver entirely, but every single one I have been to has been 90+% Chinese customers while non-Chinese are treated like lost puppies by staff (outside of the north shore at least).

90+% Chinese is the opposite of diversity.
It's about 95% these days.

Good luck, I hope something will work out for you.
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  #219  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2017, 8:14 PM
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Immigration is also a big factor in high housing prices. If the Government wasn't cramming tens of thousands of people into the city the prices wouldn't be as high. More people in an area with low supply makes higher demand-high prices. Rich foreign investors aren't 100% the reason.
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  #220  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2017, 8:21 PM
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I was reading a story a while back about how a place in new jersey created some teacher housing, affordable rentals, close to the inner city schools which were having troubles attracting teachers due to lack of affordable housing. I wonder if Vancouver will start to do such housing. I know they used to have nursing housing at VGH, I don't know if they still do but it helps attract workers and make it affordable.
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