Is the whole WFH cultural shift threatening cities a NA centric problem?

[Obadno]

Originally Posted by Crawford

In 2020, yes. In 2021, no.

Suburban Connecticut sales have fallen off a cliff, bc everyone who wanted such a home already bought in 2020. Meanwhile, urban real estate is white-hot, bc everyone who wanted such a home in 2020 was holding off.

Manhattan and Brooklyn are as hot in 2021 as Fairfield and Westchester were in 2020. Fairfield and Westchester are as cold in 2021 as Manhattan and Brooklyn were in 2020.

The pandemic migration trends are very simple. In 2020, all the demand for suburban housing for the next few years was filled in a single year. That's all. In the long run, nothing changed. The couple with a baby who planned on moving to a house with a yard once their kid went to kindergarten just sped up their move.

I disagree with your simplification, what it sped up was the slow process of more popular WFH anyway, finally pushed remote work into a significant and real portion of the workforce. Those trends wont change.

Cities are still going to grow, it doesnt take a huge number of people to choose small metros or towns to make a massive difference for them.

Dont worry crawford nobody is asking you to leave your bubble.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by 10023

That’s the opposite of what I’ve experience, and even what the business media says is typical, which is that more senior people (who have obviously benefited from the office environment, ipso facto) want to go back to the office and the juniors don’t.

Maybe it's a cultural thing, or specifically an LA thing? My partner's experience is that the boomers who live on the fringes of the metro area, bought homes out there presumably years ago when it was way cheap, and also to get away from "big bad scary LA"---total white (conservative-leaning) boomers. Then, when the pandemic/WFH hit them, according to my partner, several of them LOVED it---because it was a novelty for them, and it also meant not having to make the long commute, either by train or by driving. Even one younger 30-something my partner works with prefers working from home in the IE and staying there (she's from there and leans conservative) and thinks PASADENA is the big bad city. Haha!

Originally Posted by LA21st

Buses in LA have definetely gotten more crowded lately in my experience.

I sure hope so. Maybe that means Metro/MTA will reevaluate the bus lines they've discontinued. It's so lame; every 6 or 12 months, Metro evaluates bus ridership to determine which lines to ramp up/discontinue/new ones to create, and it's always from the previous 6 or 12 months. In June/July of this year, they eliminated *two* bus lines we live adjacent to due to low ridership, so instead of 3 handy bus lines we used to have, now we only have one (though supposedly they increased how often a bus on that one line arrives at the stops). They discontinued 2 bus lines (an east/west line and a Rapid Bus line) due to "low ridership," but those ridership numbers were based on last year in the middle of the pandemic shutdown when hardly anybody was taking public transit. DUH!!!! We of course still live near the Metro L/Gold light rail line, so that's still handy.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

Maybe that means Metro/MTA will reevaluate the bus lines they've discontinued. It's so lame; every 6 or 12 months, Metro evaluates bus ridership to determine which lines to ramp up/discontinue/new ones to create, and it's always from the previous 6 or 12 months. In June/July of this year, they eliminated *two* bus lines we live adjacent to due to low ridership, so instead of 3 handy bus lines we used to have, now we only have one (though supposedly they increased how often a bus on that one line arrives at the stops). They discontinued 2 bus lines (an east/west line and a Rapid Bus line) due to "low ridership," but those ridership numbers were based on last year in the middle of the pandemic shutdown when hardly anybody was taking public transit. DUH!!!! We of course still live near the Metro L/Gold light rail line, so that's still handy.

In San Francisco, Muni has not restored pre-covid service including several lines but it's seemingly not because of low ridership but rather because of insufficient drivers. The city mandates all muni employees be vaccinated and some refuse and are laid off. And some left for other employment or retired during the lockdowns.

Also it's about money. Muni lost a lot of money during the lockdowns and hasn't recouped it. They also instituted several new programs to give free rides to various groups (youth, seniors) and that lowers revenue. They claim they simply can't afford to restore all service and don't have enough drivers anyway.

[10023]

Originally Posted by sopas ej

Maybe it's a cultural thing, or specifically an LA thing? My partner's experience is that the boomers who live on the fringes of the metro area, bought homes out there presumably years ago when it was way cheap, and also to get away from "big bad scary LA"---total white (conservative-leaning) boomers. Then, when the pandemic/WFH hit them, according to my partner, several of them LOVED it---because it was a novelty for them, and it also meant not having to make the long commute, either by train or by driving. Even one younger 30-something my partner works with prefers working from home in the IE and staying there (she's from there and leans conservative) and thinks PASADENA is the big bad city. Haha!

Maybe it’s a function of a metro where the “inner city” is still the cheaper province of younger people, and those that have made it live in the burbs. Or it’s the industry.

In the financial industry in London, or in New York, the senior people are as likely to live in the city because it’s expensive and desirable, and it’s actually younger people that have to commute in from the outer boroughs.

The senior people who made the choice to move to Connecticut, or to Surrey, are fine with the commute and still want the control (and separation from their families) that comes from going into the city. I mean, how are they supposed to meet up with their girlfriends for a “late night at the office” if they’re working from home?

[jmecklenborg]

I found the modest brown brick building in this walk at 9:15 to be quite striking. There must be something in the local materials that created that dark brown color in the brick because no brick in the United States resembles it, except perhaps around Pittsburgh or maybe St. Louis. The white (painted?) base and "clay" lintels also never happen here. The lack of a bracketed roof overhang is also solidly "not American".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KU3EFuZ1ZlA&t=562s

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by muppet

September (in between Pingdemic and cold weather) -just one of the entertainment districts

• Video Link

These two videos were pretty amusing. I'm not sure that people from around the world really understand how alternately amusing/annoying Americans find the English to be. You see how bits and pieces of English mannerisms somehow still appear in American street life, despite our acrimonious separation back in the 1770s, and the country's subsequent settlement by the Irish and continental Europeans up through about 1920, when Europeans of all stripes stopped moving to the United States.

It's also interesting to see how many Jamaicans are in England - a relatively minor immigrant group to the U.S. - as opposed to the complete lack of Mexicans, who are pretty much everywhere in the U.S.

[10023]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

These two videos were pretty amusing. I'm not sure that people from around the world really understand how alternately amusing/annoying Americans find the English to be. You see how bit and pieces of English mannerisms somehow still appear in American street life, despite our acrimonious separation back in the 1770s, and the country's subsequent settlement by the Irish and continental Europeans.

It's also interesting to see how many Jamaicans are in England - a relatively minor immigrant group to the U.S. - as opposed to the complete lack of Mexicans, who are pretty much everywhere in the U.S.

Well Jamaicans had a right to re-settle here after WW2, because it had been a colonial possession and there was a big labor shortage after the war.

But yes, Brits can be pretty annoying, particularly that caked-on-makeup/dress-way-too-tight-for-her-body-type breed of female and the equally embarrassing male equivalents. Anyone who actually says “mate” in a non-ironic way is best avoided. There’s a class system here for a reason, and it’s probably self-reinforcing (the clear separation between upper/middle class and working class leading to sharper distinctions). Most people I know here are European or American, with a handful of upper class Brits (mostly former colleagues or business contacts). It’s not that us Americans are all so great of course, but American expats in London are of course not a general sample of Americans, either.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by 10023

Well Jamaicans had a right to re-settle here after WW2, because it had been a colonial possession and there was a big labor shortage after the war.

The opposite occurred in the United States. After non-stop waves of immigrants to the U.S. for its first 150~ years, immigration slowed during the 1930s and didn't return to 1920s levels until the 1980s. For whatever reason, few Jamaicans came here despite how close it is and their ability to speak the language (and Americans love the sound of Jamaican accents). By contrast, Haitians and everyone from Mexico and points south are hindered by the language barrier. I used to work with a guy who floated to Florida from Cuba on a raft in the 1980s. His English was absolutely terrible despite having lived here for 20+ years, but was pretty much the most upbeat person I've ever met.

Originally Posted by 10023

But yes, Brits can be pretty annoying, particularly that caked-on-makeup/dress-way-too-tight-for-her-body-type breed of female and the equally embarrassing male equivalents. Anyone who actually says “mate” in a non-ironic way is best avoided. There’s a class system here for a reason, and it’s probably self-reinforcing (the clear separation between upper/middle class and working class leading to sharper distinctions).

I haven't been to Europe since 2005 but these new videos reinforced the impression I've had that London is a head above the other capitals so far as a place where the rest of the world is welcome to come and do business. Yes, there are tons of tourists in the other big cities in Europe, but you never have the impression that there is a lot of big business going on there in the way that is obvious in London (and New York).

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

For whatever reason, few Jamaicans came here despite how close it is and their ability to speak the language

Not "for whatever reason". Extreme nativism basically shut down mass immigration to the U.S. from the late 1920's, until the 1970's.

Among other things, the nativist movement of the 1920's-1930's basically enabled the Holocaust, as the mass migration of European Jews to the U.S. stopped. And when the postwar suburban flight era arose, there were no immigrants to take the place of the departing urbanites.

And the end of the nativist laws is probably the greatest contributing factor to the more recent urban revival. Much moreso than gentrification, if you look at somewhere like Queens and see the historical trajectory in fortunes, it's almost all immigration.

[jmecklenborg]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Not "for whatever reason". Extreme nativism basically shut down mass immigration to the U.S. from the late 1920's, until the 1970's.

I'm sure that the social climate in U.S. cities (much more so than in the country, where mechanization reduced the need for more farmhands) in the 1910s and leading up to the changes in the immigration laws in the 1920s must have been crazy - well beyond anything we're familiar with today. It might seem comical in the present day that the Protestant majority would show concern about the growing Catholic population from Ireland and Italy but there were plenty of battles fought in Europe over that exact issue. The appearance of Jews and eastern European Christians complicated the matter even further.

[nito]

Completely anecdotal, but curiously I’ve noticed two phases to WFH over the past two years; the first was relief from younger generations being able to save considerable sums, with more WFH resistance from older generations. The second was a flip earlier this year of that dynamic, with the younger generations wishing to rekindle the social aspect that comes from going into the office and the older generations keen to stay at home. I know of several professional services firms where there is a divide emerging along generational lines. Depending on the sector and the business activity, WFH can be beneficial, but ultimately I feel that we’ll end up with a hybrid setup with the traditional 9-5 consigned to the bin. Businesses that want to stick to a rigid old-school work schedule will struggle and forced to change their policies. At the same time, too many businesses will be too flexible compromising productivity.

I’m not sure about muppet’s figures posted earlier, but much like public transport networks across the globe, ridership in London dropped and is going through a recovery process. TfL’s latest figures (up to mid-September) show buses and the tube back to 72% (4.27mn) and 59% (2.15mn) respectively of their pre-Covid-19 level (note: 7-day week average figure). Weekend travel is rebounding far stronger that weekday use, but the general trend is heading in the upwards direction across all modes. I suspect that we’ll see Tube and bus back to pre-Covid-19 level’s sometime early 2022.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I'm sure that the social climate in U.S. cities (much more so than in the country, where mechanization reduced the need for more farmhands) in the 1910s and leading up to the changes in the immigration laws in the 1920s must have been crazy - well beyond anything we're familiar with today. It might seem comical in the present day that the Protestant majority would show concern about the growing Catholic population from Ireland and Italy but there were plenty of battles fought in Europe over that exact issue. The appearance of Jews and eastern European Christians complicated the matter even further.

Right. The changes in U.S. cities were breathtaking in the early 20th century. Cities were exploding and the demographic changes were probably mindblowing. For example, the Bronx went from a leafy WASP "suburb" to a nearly 50% Eastern European Jewish borough of giant apartment blocks, all in about 20 years.

But the new nativist laws had devastating consequences in the coming decades. I really think that WW2 and the postwar U.S. would have been very different scenarios absent these laws.

[eschaton]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Right. The changes in U.S. cities were breathtaking in the early 20th century. Cities were exploding and the demographic changes were probably mindblowing. For example, the Bronx went from a leafy WASP "suburb" to a nearly 50% Eastern European Jewish borough of giant apartment blocks, all in about 20 years.

But the new nativist laws had devastating consequences in the coming decades. I really think that WW2 and the postwar U.S. would have been very different scenarios absent these laws.

The "Great Migration" would have been far smaller, and the analogous "hillbilly highway" movement of Appalachian whites may have been entirely absent. Probably a smaller movement out of Puerto Rico into NYC as well.

All of this domestic migration really only picked up post 1920 once the spigot of new foreign workers slammed shut, and for the most part it ceased once mass immigration from Latin America and Asia picked up again around 1970.

On the other hand, it's probably not coincidental that the U.S. labor movement went through its strongest period in terms of power around a generation after immigration restrictions.

[muppet]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

These two videos were pretty amusing. I'm not sure that people from around the world really understand how alternately amusing/annoying Americans find the English to be. You see how bits and pieces of English mannerisms somehow still appear in American street life, despite our acrimonious separation back in the 1770s, and the country's subsequent settlement by the Irish and continental Europeans up through about 1920, when Europeans of all stripes stopped moving to the United States.

It's also interesting to see how many Jamaicans are in England - a relatively minor immigrant group to the U.S. - as opposed to the complete lack of Mexicans, who are pretty much everywhere in the U.S.

Actually the Jamaican population in London (that once numbered in the hundreds of thousands) is actually much dispersed by intermarriage (so much so they're threatened as they traditionally enter more mixed relationships than same relationships), coupled with a big move to the leafy suburbs/exurbs. They were largely replaced in the 00s by a huge Black African diaspora, dominated by Nigerians, Ghanaians and Somalis in that order. The African community these days is roughly double the Caribbean one.

London's Latin American population is estimated over 200,000 (though data from the 2020 census hasn't been published it was multiplying 4x every decade, so if the trend continued it may be double that). It's largely Brazilian, Colombian and Venezuelan. Many will be hard to spot as they look and dress very native Brit these days, and are made up of all races -Black, White, Arab, Asian, Mixed race.

[EastSideHBG]

Originally Posted by nito

Completely anecdotal, but curiously I’ve noticed two phases to WFH over the past two years; the first was relief from younger generations being able to save considerable sums, with more WFH resistance from older generations. The second was a flip earlier this year of that dynamic, with the younger generations wishing to rekindle the social aspect that comes from going into the office and the older generations keen to stay at home. I know of several professional services firms where there is a divide emerging along generational lines.

I am seeing this also and a staunch anti-WFH older person I know very well is now totally onboard with permanent WFH, so much so that when they announced a partial return to office at their firm they decided to retire instead ha ha

And yep I am seeing the same from the younger folks but I think some of that has to do with them realizing as you get older the office becomes your only or the main social outlet. Especially for the folks fresher out of college, who were used to lots of in person interaction all day.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

It's also interesting to see how many Jamaicans are in England - a relatively minor immigrant group to the U.S. - as opposed to the complete lack of Mexicans, who are pretty much everywhere in the U.S.

depends where you live.

there are as many jamaicans in the usa as in the england island and canada combined.

of course, you would have to spend time in florida and ny to find most of them, but there they are more prominent than mexicans. or at least it would seem so.

ohio is actually a top tier state for jamaicans too btw. mostly in cleveland. naturally the small numbers pale as compared to fla and ny, but the point being the usa is also a natural carribean diaspora magnet.

[Crawford]

Right, there are tons of West Indians in the NYC metro, in Toronto and in South Florida. Also some in Boston and Montreal.

But in most of the rest of North America, they aren't particularly common.

[mrnyc]

i read somewhere recently that nyc can expect a permanent estimated 9% decrease in office workers overall.

however, the demand for brand new modern office space is booming, with tech gobbling up a lot.

i would look for some of the older office stock will be converted.

everyone will adjust -- its not the end of the world, or even the total unknown we all thought it was for awhile.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

ohio is actually a top tier state for jamaicans too btw. mostly in cleveland. naturally the small numbers pale as compared to fla and ny, but the point being the usa is also a natural carribean diaspora magnet.

That's not surprising. There are quite a few West Indians in Metro Detroit as well.

[10023]

Originally Posted by jmecklenborg

I haven't been to Europe since 2005 but these new videos reinforced the impression I've had that London is a head above the other capitals so far as a place where the rest of the world is welcome to come and do business. Yes, there are tons of tourists in the other big cities in Europe, but you never have the impression that there is a lot of big business going on there in the way that is obvious in London (and New York).

This has certainly been the case for most of the past 30 years or so. Unfortunately the Brexiters and current government are trying their best to stop or reverse the flow of talent from Europe that has been primarily responsible for this. Europe’s loss (in terms of dynamism) has been London’s gain, but now that is being diminished greatly.