Worldwide Demographics

[Crawford]

Ukraine will have a massive Marshall Plan-level rebuilding, with trillions spent on an expanded Europe. Millions will return. None of this is happening in Eastern Europe.

There's no realistic circumstance where Ukraine doesn't have at least a major short-term postwar population bump. And many will have no choice, since they aren't been processed as immigrants, but temporary stays.

Also, it's extremely likely that a postwar reality means heavy Russian immigration into Ukraine, given that there are large Ukrainian populations within Russia.

[iheartthed]

Ukraine will look more like Syria. It's not in structural decline and the population will recover as soon as it's safe to do so.

[Yuri]

Do you guys realize before the war Ukraine was losing 500,000 people/year (emigration plus negative natural growth)? If that's not "structural decline", I don't know what is.

Ukraine hasn't conducted a census since 2001 and Eastern Europe showed their estimates are way more rosy than reality. When census comes, the fall is several times worse. Ukraine might have had lost proportionally more people than Bulgaria or Latvia. We can't tell.

And Marshall Plan? EU is a Marshall Plan on steroids, made wonders to Croatian, Bulgarian, Latvian, Lithuanian economies and they're still in free fall. Ukraine is nowhere near those countries. It's several times poorer and now it's on the middle of war.

Afghanistan and Iraq became rich after the war? No. Nor will Ukraine. Being blond doesn't translate into being wealthy despite your American bias.

[Yuri]

Regarding Ukrainian refugees coming back, that won’t happen. Imagine the PR disaster if European governments start to push away war refugees from their countries?

And the most important recipients, Germany and Poland loved the population boost. Germany is extremely immigrant friendly and Poland too as long as they’re white/blond.

A good amount of Ukrainians went far away to Italy and Spain, countries with well established communities. Probably those refugees have family there hence choosing those destinations. I don’t see them returning either.

[JManc]

Ukraine is not like post WW2 Europe where major global economic powers were rebuilding and were in full swing within 10 years. Ukraine more or less has been treading water economically and demographically since the fall of the Soviet Union.

[Yuri]

Western Europe controlled half of the world till WWII; Ukraine is USSR Rust Belt with a US$ 2,000 GDP per capita.

People were already leaving there in droves and the war only sped up the process.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

Ukraine is not like post WW2 Europe where major global economic powers were rebuilding and were in full swing within 10 years. Ukraine more or less has been treading water economically and demographically since the fall of the Soviet Union.

This is mostly because Ukraine was still under Moscow's thumb until Crimea. Once this is all done Ukraine is going to boom. If Ukraine is able to take control of the disputed territory that Russian seized, it'll be in the EU by 2030.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

This is mostly because Ukraine was still under Moscow's thumb until Crimea. Once this is all done Ukraine is going to boom.

Why, of all countries, will Ukraine boom? I, for one, would like to see Detroit boom, but that won't happen.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If Ukraine is able to take control of the disputed territory that Russian seized, it'll be in the EU by 2030.

Joining EU will speed up the exodus. Ask Croatia, Romania or Bulgaria.

We're entering into a new demographic age. Population will shrink and people will flock to viable places, mostly wealthy big cities. A cold, poor, Rust Belt farmland backwater like Ukraine, with almost 3 times more deaths than births, is doomed.

I understand Ukraine is getting lots of sympathy due war but that doesn't translate into reality. Iraq was also a victim of an aggressive war (although they got no sympathy, I wonder why) and even though many might have rooted for them, the fact is it's still a poor country despite all their oil.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Why, of all countries, will Ukraine boom?

A large skilled population with good ties to the West. It was already developing a tech economy before the Russia invasion. It has a lot of potential. It will also become a major defense manufacturer after this is over. It'll likely become something like Israel to ensure its future sovereignty. The rebuilding alone will cause an economic boom.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

A large skilled population with good ties to the West.

Do you have numbers about it? What are those ties of the West? What are those skills? A 1980's Soviet college diploma?

Countries like Brazil or Argentina are much more similar, be their legislation, political organization, cultural traits and actual economic ties and they're not booming.

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It was already developing a tech economy before the Russia invasion. It has a lot of potential. It will also become a major defense manufacturer after this is over. It'll likely become something like Israel to ensure its future sovereignty. The rebuilding alone will cause an economic boom.

Russia is a massive weapon exporter, 2nd to the US only and it's nowhere near to be a developed economy.

"Tech economy"? Every single place these days claims to be "tech". I just googled it and apparently there are 300,000 "tech companies" in Brazil. 150,000 new jobs opened every year and only 60,000 new professionais graduating/year to meet demand. Watch out Silicon Valley! Brazil is the new thing...

Ukraine has been by far the poorest country in Europe for the past 30 years. Life expectancy there is at African levels. Its GDP is 1/3 smaller than the similar sized Colombia. No one in the US cared about it. Than this war came, they got frontpages and suddenly they've became the lost eden.

And even if we pray hard and Ukraine go through a good economy phase, that won't solve its demographics issues. Their natural growth is approaching 500,000 negative.

Do you have any idea where Ukraine will find 500,000 immigrants/year? Will they be the new Canada?

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Serbia 2021 Census: 6,690,887

Another Eastern European country releasing their numbers and once again, way below estimates.

1991: 7,576,837
2002: 7,498,001 -- -1.0%
2011: 7,186,862 -- -4.1%
2021: 6,690,887 -- -6.9%

Compared to their Croatian and Bulgarian neighbours, results were not that negative.

Back to Serbia, here it's Beograd (plus Pancevo and Stara Pazova):

1991: 1,730,556
2002: 1,770,862 -- +2.3%
2011: 1,848,646 -- +4.4%
2021: 1,864,118 -- +0.8%

Same story we see in Croatia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary: countries where there are only an undisputable primate city and they're in a much better shape than their respective countries.

As demographics keep getting worse, it will be harder for them to stay positive: Zagreb and Sofia already came slightly negative in the 2021 census. Belgrade and Bucharest will soon join them.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

A large skilled population with good ties to the West. It was already developing a tech economy before the Russia invasion. It has a lot of potential. It will also become a major defense manufacturer after this is over. It'll likely become something like Israel to ensure its future sovereignty. The rebuilding alone will cause an economic boom.

Yes, Israel is probably the best analogy.

Post-war, however it ends, whatever Russia's state, Ukraine will be fortified, economically and militarily, to ensure that Russia never again dreams of invading Europe. I could see a tech powerhouse, considering the nascent industry pre-war. Since the invasion, major Western foundations have been funding Ukrainian tech.

Ukraine, postwar, will probably have some of the highest growth rates on earth.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Regarding Ukrainian refugees coming back, that won’t happen. Imagine the PR disaster if European governments start to push away war refugees from their countries?

It would be a PR disaster if European governments didn't repatriate Ukranians. That's always been the plan. They're war refugees, not migrants.

The rebuilding of Ukraine will be the biggest economic project since the Marshall Plan. It will be a permanent bulwark against the orcs.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

This is mostly because Ukraine was still under Moscow's thumb until Crimea. Once this is all done Ukraine is going to boom. If Ukraine is able to take control of the disputed territory that Russian seized, it'll be in the EU by 2030.

Boom doing what? It's largely an export economy. They were an economic and technological powerhouse within the USSR but peaked well before the collapse and have been on a steady descent ever since. Russia certainly hasn't helped matters but Ukraine was one of, if not the most, corrupt country in Europe along with Russia. Similar systemic issues as Russia with corrupt Ukrainian SSR leaders transitioning into corrupt Ukrainian leaders and oligarchs.

I suspect they will be in the EU as well but former eastern bloc countries are still well behind the west in terms of quality of life and economic output. Many had decades of economic integration with the rest of Europe.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Yes, Israel is probably the best analogy.

Post-war, however it ends, whatever Russia's state, Ukraine will be fortified, economically and militarily, to ensure that Russia never again dreams of invading Europe. I could see a tech powerhouse, considering the nascent industry pre-war. Since the invasion, major Western foundations have been funding Ukrainian tech.

Ukraine, postwar, will probably have some of the highest growth rates on earth.

That's wishful thinking. Germany is struggling to send 10 tanks (!!!). Could you provide any hard evidence that there is planning to rebuild Ukraine?

And given Russia very poor performance in Ukraine, Europe couldn't care less about a possible invasion. If a poor, dysfunctional, corrupt 40 million people country is given that much trouble, what a 450 million people bloc with a GDP 10x bigger than Russia would fare?

Marshall Plan should be given to Iraq or Afghanistan. The US is responsible for those.

Originally Posted by Crawford

It would be a PR disaster if European governments didn't repatriate Ukranians. That's always been the plan. They're war refugees, not migrants.

The rebuilding of Ukraine will be the biggest economic project since the Marshall Plan. It will be a permanent bulwark against the orcs.

They don't do it. You don't go chasing people down and expel them. That doesn't happen.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by JManc

Boom doing what? It's largely an export economy. They were an economic and technological powerhouse within the USSR but peaked well before the collapse and have been on a steady descent ever since. Russia certainly hasn't helped matters but Ukraine was one of, if not the most, corrupt country in Europe along with Russia. Similar systemic issues as Russia with corrupt Ukrainian SSR leaders transitioning into corrupt Ukrainian leaders and oligarchs.

People rightly oppose Russia regime, but forget Ukraine is pretty much the same, except even poorer. Russia could easily liberalize whereas Ukraine (which is not even regarded as a democracy) might get authoritarian.

About this fantastic weapon industry that Ukraine will supposedly build from the scratch, well, France is the 3rd largest weapon exporter and makes US$ 2 billion. Even if Ukraine match France, an economy 15x larger, it's not like US$ 2 billion makes difference in a country that size. As an example to illustrate: with poultry alone, Brazil exports US$ 7 billion.

It's incredibly naive to think of geopolitics as football fans.

Originally Posted by JManc

I suspect they will be in the EU as well but former eastern bloc countries are still well behind the west in terms of quality of life and economic output. Many had decades of economic integration with the rest of Europe.

Not to mention those poor Eastern European countries have a GDP per capita 3x higher than Ukraine and the economy growth Western European money triggered there, didn't stop people to emigrate en masse to Germany or Britain. Population there is collapsing as we're watching in this very thread.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Russia is a massive weapon exporter, 2nd to the US only and it's nowhere near to be a developed economy.

Because Russian leaders didn't want to subscribe to a world order in which they appeared subordinate to the United States. They were/are also super fucking corrupt. Russia had the opportunity to fully integrate into the western economy and it was even floated that Russia join NATO at one point. Russia did integrate into the world economy to an extent, but it went off the rails as it became clear that they would use that leverage to destabilize the post-Cold War order.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Because Russian leaders didn't want to subscribe to a world order in which they appeared subordinate to the United States. They were/are also super fucking corrupt. Russia had the opportunity to fully integrate into the western economy and it was even floated that Russia join NATO at one point. Russia did integrate into the world economy to an extent, but it went off the rails as it became clear that they would use that leverage to destabilize the post-Cold War order.

If Russia subscribed to the US (and why on Earth any country would do that?), Russians would be a wealthy by only selling weapons?!?!

That's absurd. Do you have any idea how meaningless those exports are for the economy? The US exports US$ 9 billion, Russia R$ 3 billion, France US$ 2 billion. For a context, Brazilian poultry exports are at US$ 6.5 billion and that's only the 10th item on Brazilian exports sheet, a country that have a rather small international trade (continental countries usually do).

There is no indication Ukraine will become a weapon powerhouse and even if they did, that would mean nothing on the grand scheme of things. On farming alone, Ukraine exports US$ 28 billion. Even if they overtake the US to become world's number 1 provide (which is a ridiculous idea), farming would be much more important for them. Go without saying that those US$ 28 billion are not enough to prevent Ukraine of being, by far, the poorest country in Europe.

BTW, weapons are one of the most disgusting industries out there and you're apparently celebrating them and I really don't know why. Are you on NRA or something?

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There are so many books written trying to understand why some countries prosper and other fail. On my library alone, I have about 10 of those. You and Crawford came up with a whole new concept: if Russia invades you, you magically become rich.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

Boom doing what? It's largely an export economy. They were an economic and technological powerhouse within the USSR but peaked well before the collapse and have been on a steady descent ever since. Russia certainly hasn't helped matters but Ukraine was one of, if not the most, corrupt country in Europe along with Russia. Similar systemic issues as Russia with corrupt Ukrainian SSR leaders transitioning into corrupt Ukrainian leaders and oligarchs.

I suspect they will be in the EU as well but former eastern bloc countries are still well behind the west in terms of quality of life and economic output. Many had decades of economic integration with the rest of Europe.

There will be a ton of money poured into rebuilding the country's infrastructure after this is over. Infrastructure building = jobs. There will also be a significant ramp up in defense spending whether or not Ukraine joins NATO. From what I read, the likely scenario that NATO is set to endorse for Ukraine is that it not join officially, but that NATO does as much as possible to prepare it to defend itself against future Russian aggression. So Ukraine is likely to look like Israel, Finland, or Sweden.

I think some of you are really not understanding how wildly different Ukraine will be on the other side of this war. They will likely become one of the most militarized countries in the world after this is done. At the very least their goal will be to match Russia in every aspect of defense. They will almost certainly try to develop nuclear capabilities, which might spur NATO to commit to their defense in the future, as NATO doesn't want another nuclear country to worry about.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There will be a ton of money poured into rebuilding the country's infrastructure after this is over.

It's far from over though. And West Europe (where the money comes from) has only so much money, and many other issues to deal with. The Marshall Plan it's not going to be.