Worldwide Demographics

[Yuri]

On page #498, I brought North America. Let's add Brazil (2010-2022) to the mix:

---------------- 2020/2021 ------- 2010/2011 ------- 2000/2001

CANADA ------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 ---- 30,007,094 --- 10.5% --- 11.6%

UNITED STATES ----- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 --- 281,421,906 ---- 7.3% ---- 9.7%

MEXICO ------------ 126,014,024 --- 112,336,538 ---- 97,483,412 --- 12.2% --- 15.2%

BRAZIL ------------ 207,750,291 --- 190,747,731 --- 169,799,170 ---- 8.9% --- 12.3%

---------------------------- 2020/2021 ------- 2010/2011 ------- 2000/2001

São Paulo --------- 23.283.685 --- 20.755.765 --- 18.780.007 ---- 12,18% ---- 10,52%

Mexico City ------- 22.727.239 --- 20.834.850 --- 18.941.600 ----- 9,10% ---- 10,00%

New York ---------- 22.692.839 --- 21.358.372 --- 20.675.403 ----- 6,25% ----- 3,30%

Los Angeles ------- 18.644.680 --- 17.877.006 --- 16.373.645 ----- 4,29% ----- 9,18%

Rio de Janeiro ---- 12.118.222 --- 11.825.040 --- 10.853.681 ----- 2,48% ----- 8,95%

Chicago ------------ 9.618.502 ---- 9.461.105 ---- 9.098.314 ----- 1,66% ----- 3,99%

San Francisco ------ 8.036.501 ---- 7.413.121 ---- 7.039.362 ----- 8,41% ----- 5,31%

Dallas ------------- 7.637.387 ---- 6.366.542 ---- 5.156.217 ---- 19,96% ---- 23,47%

Toronto ------------ 7.568.308 ---- 6.801.391 ---- 5.758.940 ---- 11,30% ---- 18,10%

Houston ------------ 7.122.240 ---- 5.920.416 ---- 4.693.161 ---- 20,30% ---- 26,15%

Philadelphia ------- 6.245.051 ---- 5.965.353 ---- 5.687.147 ----- 4,69% ----- 4,89%

Miami -------------- 6.138.333 ---- 5.564.635 ---- 5.007.564 ---- 10,31% ---- 11,12%

Washington --------- 6.105.431 ---- 5.388.326 ---- 4.635.194 ---- 13,31% ---- 16,25%

Boston ------------- 6.095.791 ---- 5.628.532 ---- 5.410.915 ----- 8,30% ----- 4,02%

Atlanta ------------ 6.089.815 ---- 5.286.728 ---- 4.263.438 ---- 15,19% ---- 24,00%

Monterrey ---------- 5.341.177 ---- 4.226.031 ---- 3.426.352 ---- 26,40% ---- 23,30%

Detroit ------------ 5.325.319 ---- 5.218.852 ---- 5.357.538 ----- 2,04% ---- -2,59%

Guadalajara -------- 5.268.642 ---- 4.521.755 ---- 3.772.833 ---- 16,50% ---- 19,90%

Belo Horizonte ----- 5.184.725 ---- 4.823.651 ---- 4.302.857 ----- 7,49% ---- 12,10%

Seattle ------------ 4.871.272 ---- 4.199.312 ---- 3.707.144 ---- 16,00% ---- 13,28%

Phoenix ------------ 4.845.832 ---- 4.192.887 ---- 3.251.876 ---- 15,57% ---- 28,94%

Montreal ----------- 4.291.732 ---- 3.824.221 ---- 3.426.350 ---- 12,20% ---- 11,60%

Brasília ----------- 4.220.894 ---- 3.622.571 ---- 2.866.339 ---- 16,52% ---- 26,38%

Porto Alegre ------- 3.989.983 ---- 3.918.362 ---- 3.675.026 ----- 1,83% ----- 6,62%

Recife ------------- 3.947.723 ---- 3.884.282 ---- 3.511.414 ----- 1,63% ---- 10,62%

Fortaleza ---------- 3.845.837 ---- 3.530.710 ---- 2.980.933 ----- 8,93% ---- 18,44%

Puebla ------------- 3.769.838 ---- 3.228.357 ---- 2.678.396 ---- 16,80% ---- 20,50%

Salvador ----------- 3.732.635 ---- 3.637.361 ---- 3.189.628 ----- 2,62% ---- 14,04%

Minneapolis -------- 3.635.128 ---- 3.279.833 ---- 2.968.806 ---- 10,83% ---- 10,48%

Denver ------------- 3.623.560 ---- 3.090.874 ---- 2.610.343 ---- 17,23% ---- 18,41%

Curitiba ----------- 3.576.667 ---- 3.071.165 ---- 2.674.102 ---- 16,46% ---- 14,85%

San Diego ---------- 3.298.634 ---- 3.095.313 ---- 2.813.833 ----- 6,57% ---- 10,00%

Tampa -------------- 3.175.275 ---- 2.783.243 ---- 2.395.998 ---- 14,09% ---- 16,16%

Campinas ----------- 3.139.111 ---- 2.690.791 ---- 2.252.715 ---- 16,66% ---- 19,45%

Vancouver ---------- 2.838.551 ---- 2.483.519 ---- 2.134.335 ---- 14,30% ---- 16,40%

Baltimore ---------- 2.794.636 ---- 2.662.691 ---- 2.512.431 ----- 4,96% ----- 5,98%

Cleveland ---------- 2.790.470 ---- 2.780.440 ---- 2.843.103 ----- 0,36% ---- -2,20%

St. Louis ---------- 2.754.124 ---- 2.717.079 ---- 2.648.607 ----- 1,36% ----- 2,59%

--- Brazil growing as fast (or as slow) as the US.

--- São Paulo has became Americas' largest metro areas. From a 30,000 provincial capital in the 1870's to surpass New York and several grand capitals. And as the 2022 Census was great to the city and to the state as a whole, it seems São Paulo will increase the lead;

--- Rio de Janeiro growth collapsed and I don't think they will avoid a negative number by the 2030;

--- Same thing regarding the three Northeast capitals (Fortaleza, Recife and Salvador), Belo Horizonte and Porto Alegre. Getting close to zero;

--- Brasília still posts robust numbers, but slowed down a lot;

--- Curitiba, as São Paulo, has grown even faster now. Very good numbers and at this pace, it will become Southern's largest metro area, overtaking Porto Alegre;

--- Campinas, 60 miles north of São Paulo, Brazil's 2nd largest logistical hub (behind São Paulo only) with a very strong number. They're already linked by continuous urban development and this will be more and more visible in the future.

[Yuri]

Updating the list I posted in July, with more countries (Brazil, Spain and several others) and their last decade growth:

🇨🇳CHINA --------------- 1,411,778,724 - 1,339,724,852 ---- +5.4%

🇺🇸UNITED STATES ----- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 ---- +7.4%

🇮🇩INDONESIA ---------- 270,203,917 --- 237,641,326 --- +13.7%

🇧🇷 BRAZIL -------------- 207,750,291 --- 190,747,731 ---- +8.9%

🇯🇵JAPAN ----------------- 126,146,099 --- 128,057,352 ---- -1.5%

🇲🇽MEXICO -------------- 126,014,024 --- 112,336,538 --- +12.2%

🇵🇭PHILIPPINES --------- 109,035,343 ---- 92,337,852 --- +18.1%

🇻🇳VIETNAM -------------- 96,208,984 ---- 85,846,997 --- +12.1%

🇹🇷TURKEY ---------------- 84,680,273 ---- 74,525,696 --- +13.6%

🇩🇪GERMANY ------------- 83,237,124 ---- 80,219,695 ---- +3.8%

🇬🇧UNITED KINGDOM -- 66,890,617 ---- 63,182,178 ---- +6.0%

🇹🇿TANZANIA ----------- 61,741,120 ---- 44,928,923 --- +37.4%

🇮🇹ITALY -------------------- 59,257,566 ---- 59,433,744 ---- -0.3%

🇰🇷SOUTH KOREA -------- 51,829,136 ---- 48,580,293 ---- +6.7%

🇰🇪KENYA ----------------- 47,564,296 ---- 38,610,097 --- +25.0%

🇪🇸SPAIN ------------------ 47,400,798 ---- 46,815,917 ---- +1.2%

🇵🇱POLAND ---------------- 38,036,100 ---- 38,511,824 ---- -1.2%

🇨🇦CANADA ---------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 --- +10.5%

🇲🇾MALAYSIA -------------- 32,447,385 ---- 28,334,135 --- +14.5%

🇬🇭GHANA ---------------- 30,832,019 ---- 24,658,823 --- +25.0%

🇦🇺AUSTRALIA ------------- 25,422,788 ---- 21,507,719 --- +18.2%

🇿🇲ZAMBIA --------------- 19,610,769 ---- 13,092,666 --- +49.8%

🇷🇴ROMANIA -------------- 19,186,201 ---- 20,121,641 ---- -4.6%

🇳🇱NETHERLANDS ------- 17,474,693 ---- 16,655,799 ---- +4.9%

🇰🇭CAMBODIA ----------- 15,552,211 ---- 13,395,682 -- +16.1%

🇧🇪BELGIUM --------------- 11,492,641 ---- 10,839,905 ---- +6.0%

🇨🇿CZECH REP. ------------ 10,524,167 ---- 10,436,560 ---- +0.8%

🇬🇷GREECE -------------- 10,432,481 ---- 10,816,286 ---- -3.5%

🇸🇪SWEDEN --------------- 10,379,295 ----- 9,415,570 --- +10.2%

🇵🇹PORTUGAL ------------ 10,343,066 ---- 10,562,178 ---- -2.1%

🇮🇱ISRAEL -------------------- 9,140,500 ----- 7,412,200 --- +23.3%

🇦🇹AUSTRIA ------------------ 8,932,664 ----- 8,401,940 ---- +6.3%

🇨🇭SWITZERLAND ---------- 8,670,300 ----- 7,870,134 --- +10.2%

🇭🇰HONG KONG ------------ 7,413,070 ----- 7,071,576 ---- +4.8%

🇧🇬BULGARIA --------------- 6,519,789 ----- 7,364,570 --- -11.5%

🇩🇰DENMARK -------------- 5,840,045 ----- 5,560,628 ---- +5.0%

🇸🇬SINGAPORE ------------ 5,685,807 ----- 5,076,700 --- +12.0%

🇫🇮FINLAND --------------- 5,533,793 ----- 5,375,276 ---- +2.9%

🇸🇰SLOVAKIA -------------- 5,449,270 ----- 5,397,036 ---- +1.0%

🇱🇧LEBANON ------------- 5,416,225 ----- 3,759,135 --- +44.1%

🇮🇪IRELAND ---------------- 5,123,536 ----- 4,588,252 --- +11.7%

🇴🇲OMAN ------------------- 4,471,148 ----- 2,773,479 --- +61.2%

🇭🇷CROATIA --------------- 3,871,833 ----- 4,284,889 ---- -9.6%

🇵🇷PUERTO RICO ------- 3,193,694 ----- 3,726,157 --- -14.3%

🇶🇦QATAR ------------------ 2,846,118 ----- 1,699,435 --- +67.5%

🇱🇹LITHUANIA ------------ 2,810,761 ----- 3,043,429 ---- -7.6%

🇸🇮SLOVENIA ------------- 2,108,977 ----- 2,050,189 ---- +2.9%

🇱🇻LATVIA ----------------- 1,893,223 ----- 2,070,371 ---- -8.6%

🇲🇰MACEDONIA -------- 1,836,713 ----- 2,057,284 --- -10.7%

🇧🇭BAHRAIN -------------- 1,501,635 ----- 1,234,571 --- +21.6%

🇪🇪ESTONIA --------------- 1,331,824 ----- 1,294,455 ---- +2.9%

[austlar1]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Updating the list I posted in July, with more countries (Brazil, Spain and several others) and their last decade growth:

🇨🇳CHINA --------------- 1,411,778,724 - 1,339,724,852 ---- +5.4%

🇺🇸UNITED STATES ----- 331,449,281 --- 308,745,538 ---- +7.4%

🇮🇩INDONESIA ---------- 270,203,917 --- 237,641,326 --- +13.7%

🇧🇷 BRAZIL -------------- 207,750,291 --- 190,747,731 ---- +8.9%

🇯🇵JAPAN ----------------- 126,146,099 --- 128,057,352 ---- -1.5%

🇲🇽MEXICO -------------- 126,014,024 --- 112,336,538 --- +12.2%

🇵🇭PHILIPPINES --------- 109,035,343 ---- 92,337,852 --- +18.1%

🇻🇳VIETNAM -------------- 96,208,984 ---- 85,846,997 --- +12.1%

🇹🇷TURKEY ---------------- 84,680,273 ---- 74,525,696 --- +13.6%

🇩🇪GERMANY ------------- 83,237,124 ---- 80,219,695 ---- +3.8%

🇬🇧UNITED KINGDOM -- 66,890,617 ---- 63,182,178 ---- +6.0%

🇹🇿TANZANIA ----------- 61,741,120 ---- 44,928,923 --- +37.4%

🇮🇹ITALY -------------------- 59,257,566 ---- 59,433,744 ---- -0.3%

🇰🇷SOUTH KOREA -------- 51,829,136 ---- 48,580,293 ---- +6.7%

🇰🇪KENYA ----------------- 47,564,296 ---- 38,610,097 --- +25.0%

🇪🇸SPAIN ------------------ 47,400,798 ---- 46,815,917 ---- +1.2%

🇵🇱POLAND ---------------- 38,036,100 ---- 38,511,824 ---- -1.2%

🇨🇦CANADA ---------------- 36,991,981 ---- 33,476,688 --- +10.5%

🇲🇾MALAYSIA -------------- 32,447,385 ---- 28,334,135 --- +14.5%

🇬🇭GHANA ---------------- 30,832,019 ---- 24,658,823 --- +25.0%

🇦🇺AUSTRALIA ------------- 25,422,788 ---- 21,507,719 --- +18.2%

🇿🇲ZAMBIA --------------- 19,610,769 ---- 13,092,666 --- +49.8%

🇷🇴ROMANIA -------------- 19,186,201 ---- 20,121,641 ---- -4.6%

🇳🇱NETHERLANDS ------- 17,474,693 ---- 16,655,799 ---- +4.9%

🇰🇭CAMBODIA ----------- 15,552,211 ---- 13,395,682 -- +16.1%

🇧🇪BELGIUM --------------- 11,492,641 ---- 10,839,905 ---- +6.0%

🇨🇿CZECH REP. ------------ 10,524,167 ---- 10,436,560 ---- +0.8%

🇬🇷GREECE -------------- 10,432,481 ---- 10,816,286 ---- -3.5%

🇸🇪SWEDEN --------------- 10,379,295 ----- 9,415,570 --- +10.2%

🇵🇹PORTUGAL ------------ 10,343,066 ---- 10,562,178 ---- -2.1%

🇮🇱ISRAEL -------------------- 9,140,500 ----- 7,412,200 --- +23.3%

🇦🇹AUSTRIA ------------------ 8,932,664 ----- 8,401,940 ---- +6.3%

🇨🇭SWITZERLAND ---------- 8,670,300 ----- 7,870,134 --- +10.2%

🇭🇰HONG KONG ------------ 7,413,070 ----- 7,071,576 ---- +4.8%

🇧🇬BULGARIA --------------- 6,519,789 ----- 7,364,570 --- -11.5%

🇩🇰DENMARK -------------- 5,840,045 ----- 5,560,628 ---- +5.0%

🇸🇬SINGAPORE ------------ 5,685,807 ----- 5,076,700 --- +12.0%

🇫🇮FINLAND --------------- 5,533,793 ----- 5,375,276 ---- +2.9%

🇸🇰SLOVAKIA -------------- 5,449,270 ----- 5,397,036 ---- +1.0%

🇱🇧LEBANON ------------- 5,416,225 ----- 3,759,135 --- +44.1%

🇮🇪IRELAND ---------------- 5,123,536 ----- 4,588,252 --- +11.7%

🇴🇲OMAN ------------------- 4,471,148 ----- 2,773,479 --- +61.2%

🇭🇷CROATIA --------------- 3,871,833 ----- 4,284,889 ---- -9.6%

🇵🇷PUERTO RICO ------- 3,193,694 ----- 3,726,157 --- -14.3%

🇶🇦QATAR ------------------ 2,846,118 ----- 1,699,435 --- +67.5%

🇱🇹LITHUANIA ------------ 2,810,761 ----- 3,043,429 ---- -7.6%

🇸🇮SLOVENIA ------------- 2,108,977 ----- 2,050,189 ---- +2.9%

🇱🇻LATVIA ----------------- 1,893,223 ----- 2,070,371 ---- -8.6%

🇲🇰MACEDONIA -------- 1,836,713 ----- 2,057,284 --- -10.7%

🇧🇭BAHRAIN -------------- 1,501,635 ----- 1,234,571 --- +21.6%

🇪🇪ESTONIA --------------- 1,331,824 ----- 1,294,455 ---- +2.9%

What about other South American countries and their large metros? You hardly ever mention them.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by austlar1

What about other South American countries and their large metros? You hardly ever mention them.

They carried Census in random dates, Colombia in 2018 (the previous in 2005), Chile in 2017 (the previous in 2002) so it's hard to fit them here.

It seems Argentina, that as Brazil delayed their Census due Covid, carried it in 2022. Soon we'll have info about them.

Peru carried in 2017 and the previous one was in 2007. I guess I can add them here later.

[Yuri]

Americas Megalopolises


------------------------- 2022 ------------- 2010 ------------- 2000

RIO-SÃO PAULO ------ 49.957.381 --- 45.444.999 --- 40.767.000 ---- 9,93% -- 11,47%

SÃO PAULO ---------- 35.157.815 --- 31.110.163 --- 27.760.139 --- 13,01% -- 12,07%
São Paulo ---------- 23.368.202 --- 20.815.419 --- 18.826.583 --- 12,26% -- 10,56%				
Campinas ------------ 5.235.213 ---- 4.569.946 ---- 3.929.114 --- 14,56% -- 16,31%				
São José dos Campos - 2.557.857 ---- 2.264.594 ---- 1.992.110 --- 12,95% -- 13,68%				
Sorocaba ------------ 2.134.347 ---- 1.770.393 ---- 1.512.712 --- 20,56% -- 17,03%				
Santos -------------- 1.862.196 ---- 1.689.811 ---- 1.499.620 --- 10,20% -- 12,68%			
RIO DE JANEIRO ----- 14.799.566 --- 14.334.836 --- 13.006.861 ---- 3,24% -- 10,21%
Rio de Janeiro ----- 12.907.297 --- 12.578.485 --- 11.546.023 ---- 2,61% --- 8,94%
Volta Redonda ------- 1.105.033 ---- 1.062.237 ------ 933.983 ---- 4,03% -- 13,73%
Cabo Frio ------------- 629.542 ------ 538.470 ------ 382.489 --- 16,91% -- 40,78%
Três Rios ------------- 157.694 ------ 155.644 ------ 144.366 ---- 1,32% --- 7,81%

------------------------- 2020 ------------- 2010 ------------- 2000

BOS-WASH ----------- 54.293.298 --- 51.006.284 --- 48.198.561 ---- 6,44% --- 5,83%

Boston -------------- 8.466.186 ---- 7.893.376 ---- 7.630.016 ---- 7,26% --- 3,45%
Springfield ----------- 699.162 ------ 692.942 ------ 680.014 ---- 0,90% --- 1,90%
Hartford ------------ 1.482.086 ---- 1.486.436 ---- 1.407.706 --- -0,29% --- 5,59%
New York ----------- 23.582.649 --- 22.255.491 --- 21.500.484 ---- 5,96% --- 3,51%
Philadelphia -------- 7.379.700 ---- 7.067.807 ---- 6.688.798 ---- 4,41% --- 5,67%
Allentown ------------- 861.889 ------ 821.173 ------ 740.395 ---- 4,96% -- 10,91%
Lancaster ------------- 552.984 ------ 519.445 ------ 470.658 ---- 6,46% -- 10,37%
Harrisburg ---------- 1.295.259 ---- 1.219.422 ---- 1.102.444 ---- 6,22% -- 10,61%
Washington-Baltimore  9.973.383 ---- 9.050.192 ---- 7.978.046 --- 10,20% -- 13,44%

------------------------- 2020 ------------- 2010 ------------- 2000

SAN-SAN ------------ 38.207.603 --- 35.935.740 --- 32.658.695 ---- 6,32% -- 10,03%

NORTHERN CALIFORNIA  14.624.401 --- 13.430.258 --- 12.163.544 ---- 8,89% -- 10,41%
San Francisco ------- 9.714.023 ---- 8.923.942 ---- 8.313.745 ---- 8,85% --- 7,34%
Sacramento ---------- 2.680.831 ---- 2.414.783 ---- 2.028.039 --- 11,02% -- 19,07%
Salinas --------------- 439.035 ------ 415.057 ------ 401.762 ---- 5,78% --- 3,31%
Fresno -------------- 1.317.395 ---- 1.234.297 ---- 1.051.977 ---- 6,73% -- 17,33%
Visalia --------------- 473.117 ------ 442.179 ------ 368.021 ---- 7,00% -- 20,15%
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  23.583.202 --- 22.505.482 --- 20.495.151 ---- 4,79% --- 9,81%
Los Angeles -------- 18.644.680 --- 17.877.006 --- 16.373.645 ---- 4,29% --- 9,18%
San Diego ----------- 3.298.634 ---- 3.095.313 ---- 2.813.833 ---- 6,57% -- 10,00%
Santa Barbara --------- 448.229 ------ 423.895 ------ 399.347 ---- 5,74% --- 6,15%
San Luis Obispo ------- 282.424 ------ 269.637 ------ 246.681 ---- 4,74% --- 9,31%
Bakersfield ----------- 909.235 ------ 839.631 ------ 661.645 ---- 8,29% -- 26,90%

------------------------- 2020 ------------- 2010 ------------- 2000

CENTRO DE MÉXICO --- 39.182.978 --- 35.418.952 --- 31.532.144 --- 10,63% -- 12,33%

MÉXICO ------------- 31.256.723 --- 28.469.187 --- 25.492.812 ---- 9,79% -- 11,68%
Ciudad de México ---- 9.209.944 ---- 8.851.080 ---- 8.605.239 ---- 4,05% --- 2,86%
México ------------- 16.992.418 --- 15.175.862 --- 13.096.686 --- 11,97% -- 15,88%
Hidalgo ------------- 3.082.841 ---- 2.665.018 ---- 2.235.591 --- 15,68% -- 19,21%
Morelos ------------- 1.971.520 ---- 1.777.227 ---- 1.555.296 --- 10,93% -- 14,27%
PUEBLA -------------- 7.926.255 ---- 6.949.765 ---- 6.039.332 --- 14,05% -- 15,08%
Puebla -------------- 6.583.278 ---- 5.779.829 ---- 5.076.686 --- 13,90% -- 13,85%
Tlaxcala ------------ 1.342.977 ---- 1.169.936 ------ 962.646 --- 14,79% -- 21,53%

[Yuri]

Rio-São Paulo

2022 Census revealed a completely collapse on Rio de Janeiro's side, a mix of socioeconomic malaise, low oil prices and above all, population aging.

On the other hand, São Paulo managed to slightly increase its growth unlike the rest of the country. São Paulo Macrometropolitan Area reached 35 million inh., about 33 million on the core of it and it will work more and more as an ordinary metropolitan area.

BosWash

The only area that actually accelerated its growth, thanks mostly to the urban surge of Boston and New York. BosWash remains as the most populated megalopolises and its growth is now converging with the other three. Actually, faster than the Californian one, something imaginable till few years ago.

SanSan

California's growth collapsed on the past decade except for San Francisco which actually sped up. On Southern California, it was even more pronounced and population growth almost became flat. A big change from the 1980's.

Centro de México

There's no noticeable trend. Its growth is slightly below Mexican average and the fall on growth also is on the same pace of national average. It's all about natural growth there, with migration flows, domestic or international, having no impact.

As I used state borders, there are plenty of sparsed population areas on the edges, but the core, as happens to São Paulo Macrometropolitan Area, form a compact web of densely populated metropolitan areas with some 32 million people on it. Mexico and São Paulo are then, by a quite big margin, the largest urban complexes on the American continent and one of the largest in the world.

[Yuri]

🇷🇸Serbia 2021 Census: 6,690,887

Another Eastern European country releasing their numbers and once again, way below estimates.

1991: 7,576,837
2002: 7,498,001 -- -1.0%
2011: 7,186,862 -- -4.1%
2021: 6,690,887 -- -6.9%

Compared to their Croatian and Bulgarian neighbours, results were not that negative.

[Crawford]

In 50 years, the Balkans could be turned into a biosphere. Transylvania in Romania is headed in that direction too. They're reintroducing wolves, and encouraging some settlements to disappear.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

In 50 years, the Balkans could be turned into a biosphere. Transylvania in Romania is headed in that direction too. They're reintroducing wolves, and encouraging some settlements to disappear.

They also provide a nice experiment for societies dealing with severe population shrinking. Countries like Bulgaria and Latvia lost almost 1/3 of their population on the past 30 years, with a combo of low TFR and massive emigration.

That's much faster then the most extreme cases in Eastern Asia (China, South Korea, Taiwan) where it takes about 50 years to lose 1/3 of their population.

[Crawford]

One good thing about Eastern Europe is that the cities generally aren't shrinking. The rural areas are completely emptying out, however. So it's a best of both worlds. The countries continue to have cosmopolitan destinations, and the countryside empties.

It's kind of amazing to me how wild and uncultivated Eastern Europe remains. It was never farmed and settled to death like England, Netherlands, Belgium and most of Germany and France. Even the southeastern corner of Germany feels very wild and remote once you get close to the Czech Republic. Meanwhile England hasn't had real forests in 400-500 years.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

One good thing about Eastern Europe is that the cities generally aren't shrinking. The rural areas are completely emptying out, however. So it's a best of both worlds. The countries continue to have cosmopolitan destinations, and the countryside empties.

I believe we'll see a similar thing on China on the next decades, although from a much much denser countryside. I don't see them returning to the nature unless it's hilly terrain.

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's kind of amazing to me how wild and uncultivated Eastern Europe remains. It was never farmed and settled to death like England, Netherlands, Belgium and most of Germany and France. Even the southeastern corner of Germany feels very wild and remote once you get close to the Czech Republic. Meanwhile England hasn't had real forests in 400-500 years.

Yeah, England and specially Netherlands, are insane. In England they have more "natural" landscapes. Netherlands, on the other hand, it's completely changed by very intense human activity. 434 inh./km² and 522 inh./km² density respectively.

Brazil, as Europe, has both worlds too: the dense South-Southeast-Northeast, full of small/mid-sized towns very close to each other and smaller farms; and the emptiness of Central-West with its big farms and cities dozens of kms away from the next one and North with the Amazon.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

One good thing about Eastern Europe is that the cities generally aren't shrinking. The rural areas are completely emptying out, however. So it's a best of both worlds. The countries continue to have cosmopolitan destinations, and the countryside empties.

It's kind of amazing to me how wild and uncultivated Eastern Europe remains. It was never farmed and settled to death like England, Netherlands, Belgium and most of Germany and France. Even the southeastern corner of Germany feels very wild and remote once you get close to the Czech Republic. Meanwhile England hasn't had real forests in 400-500 years.

Being a colonial power was good for population growth. No way could western Europe support those populations without importing a ton of resources from the colonies... hence the world wars.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Being a colonial power was good for population growth. No way could western Europe support those populations without importing a ton of resources from the colonies... hence the world wars.

Arguably, Japanese and Chinese did it.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Crawford

One good thing about Eastern Europe is that the cities generally aren't shrinking. The rural areas are completely emptying out, however. So it's a best of both worlds. The countries continue to have cosmopolitan destinations, and the countryside empties.

It's kind of amazing to me how wild and uncultivated Eastern Europe remains. It was never farmed and settled to death like England, Netherlands, Belgium and most of Germany and France. Even the southeastern corner of Germany feels very wild and remote once you get close to the Czech Republic. Meanwhile England hasn't had real forests in 400-500 years.

Urban areas usually have the lowest fertility rates so this will only increase the population decrease and start effecting the cities once the rural areas are sucked dry.

the rates of decrease in eastern Europe will only accelerate in the coming decade once the Ukrainian tap are also dries up.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Yuri

🇷🇸Serbia 2021 Census: 6,690,887

Another Eastern European country releasing their numbers and once again, way below estimates.

1991: 7,576,837
2002: 7,498,001 -- -1.0%
2011: 7,186,862 -- -4.1%
2021: 6,690,887 -- -6.9%

Compared to their Croatian and Bulgarian neighbours, results were not that negative.

Toronto will soon be larger than every country in Eastern and central Europe except for Poland.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Nite

Toronto will soon be larger than every country in Eastern and central Europe except for Poland.

Ukraine?

Romania?

[Nite]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Ukraine?

Romania?

Ukraine is losing a 500,000 people a month; they are down to about 25,000,000 now. As for Romania, population decline will also be accelerating after the Ukrainian bump subsides. In my life time I feel pretty confident that Toronto will be larger than these two before i die.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Nite

Ukraine is losing a 500,000 people a month; they are down to about 25,000,000 now. As for Romania, population decline will also be accelerating after the Ukrainian bump subsides. In my life time I feel pretty confident that Toronto will be larger than these two before i die.

Not losing this amount anymore. They've lost 8 million people so far, but the exodus was way more intense in the beginning of the war. And population is around 30-32 million (minus Crimea). 25 million only if we exclude Donbas and other areas under Russian occupation.

Of course Ukraine has one of the worst demographics in the world, with deaths outnumbering births at 2.5 for 1 and a natural growth of minus 450,000.

And regarding comparisons with Toronto, growth rates change. It's not like Toronto will grow forever. Canada itself is about to register negative natural growth.

[Crawford]

Ukraine will almost certainly grow postwar. The current population is essentially irrelevant.

I mean, what's the point of looking at the 1945-era population of Berlin? It's clearly a temporary condition.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Ukraine will almost certainly grow postwar. The current population is essentially irrelevant.

I mean, what's the point of looking at the 1945-era population of Berlin? It's clearly a temporary condition.

Not a good example. Berlin was completely destroyed whereas Ukraine is mostly intact. And of course, Berlin metro area population is still below 1939 levels. Only Vienna has a worse performance.

Ukraine is a very poor country even before the war and they have a very strong emigration tradition, inside Russian Empire/USSR itself and abroad (Brazil, Canada, US).

Some will return, but the bulk won't. Germany, Poland, Czech Rep., Spain, Italy. They'll stay there. And of course the end of the war won't stop emigration either. There is no war in Bulgaria and Croatia and they keep hemorrhaging like crazy.