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  #41  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2023, 3:56 PM
nito nito is offline
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Apologies for the lack of updates on this thread. There have been a few events that have happened that boggle the mind. As you may recall, HS2 was broken into several phases, so let’s do a quick run-through as to what is happening and what has been cancelled/mothballed.


Image sourced from Department for Transport: https://assets.publishing.service.go...nement-web.pdf

Phase 1
Original Plan: This comprised a section from London Euston with stops at Old Oak Common (in west London) and then Birmingham Interchange, whereafter the line splits, with one branch going to Birmingham Curzon Street and the other branching north creating a second bypass line to the West Coast Main Line (WCML).
Current Plan: The section from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Curzon Street is well under construction, with a giant hole at London Euston. The question mark however is what form London Euston will take; the London terminus project has been badly mismanaged with costs rising from constant design changes and a bizarre take from the Treasury that all above station development shouldn’t count towards the project, despite the OSD being at fault for the constant design changes. Originally specified as an 11-platform terminus station, there is speculation that it will be built out with just 6-platforms which would permanently limit the scope to provide the original service pattern of up to 17tph even if all the original phases are built out.

Phase 2a
Original Plan: From Birmingham Interchange, the route heads north-west towards Crewe where the line would split.
Current Plan: Work has already commenced on this section with many bridges and redirection works have already commenced. As per the announcement by Rishi Sunak, this section has been cancelled. HS2 services heading north-west will instead rejoin the WCML and carry on their journey to Manchester, Liverpool and Glasgow.

Phase 2b East
Original Plan: From Crewe, this section would have headed towards Manchester, splitting in two with one branch heading via a tunnel to Manchester Airport and then new adjacent platforms at Manchester Piccadilly. The other branch would head towards Wigan where it would rejoin the WCML onwards up to the north of England and Scotland
Current Plan: This was cancelled by Rishi Sunak, with some cruel irony at the Conservative Party Conference which was held in Manchester.

Phase 2b West
Original Plan: North of Birmingham Interchange, this would have been a new line heading up to Totton (in-between Derby and Nottingham), with a short loop branch via Sheffield, before branching up to a new station adjacent to the main Leeds station and a branch up to York and the Newcastle.
Current Plan: This was cancelled last year as costs started to rise.

Channel 4 News – HS2 Part-Cancellation
Video Link


Going Forward
HS2 is one of the few projects which had cross-party consensus with all previous Prime Ministers and multitudes of former cabinet ministers in support. In the original proposed form, 48tph would have operated across a network spanning 530km, with 400m long trains travelling at 360kph. The capacity relief would have been transformational, particularly for the WCML, the East Coast Main Line (ECML) and Midland Main Line (MML); with each of these lines able to provide a massive increase in commuter, regional, rural and freight frequencies.

By March of this year, intercity travel had returned to 86% of pre-pandemic levels, despite strikes and Avanti West Coast (the largest intercity operator) struggling to provide a full service (amazingly due to unprecedented driver shortages) and is likely to rise above pre-pandemic volumes by the end of the calendar year. That makes the delivery of HS2 even more critical, as the absence of which will be severe congestion. Just in the last few days there have been reports of some trains refusing to depart until passengers get off because the services are so overcrowded.

As it stands, the only true benefit will be unlocked between London and Birmingham – the section which incurred the highest costs – whilst the lower cost sections to Leeds (which the highest returns) and Manchester (the second highest returns) have now been discarded. It is tantamount to economic sabotage and will make future works to provide nationwide capacity far more costly. An incredibly expensive expansion of the ECML will now need to be looked at, and the level of disruption far higher.

A general election is due to be held next year. The Tories who currently have a majority are likely to be wiped out, with Labour coming in on a massive 100+ seat majority which would give them a lot of control to enact their manifesto. Could they go back to building HS2 as originally intended? Not implausible, but the incoming Labour administration need to say something now to dispel any ideas of rapid land disposals. There are also question marks around the state of the economy and availability of funds, but as an infrastructure project which has nationwide productivity gains, borrowing shouldn’t be a problem. Another point to consider is that the biggest beneficiaries from HS2 would be Labour’s northern heartlands which are constrained by intercity traffic taking up existing tracks and platforms at key mainline stations. Furthermore, HS3 (or Northern Powerhouse) which would be a new high-speed line running from Liverpool to Leeds via Manchester would piggyback off HS2 Phase 2b East.

In a way, HS2 should really have been called High Capacity Rail; high speed services being a perk, but the focus ought to have been on the capacity relief for existing mainline corridors for new commuter services across the country, displacing road freight and allowing for the removal of domestic short-haul flights.


HS2 Project Update – September 2023
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Work beings on HS2’s longest Green Tunnel
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Production of HS2 London tunnel segments
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Colne Valley Viaduct
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Chilterns Tunnel Progress
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London Tunnel Progress
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Copthall Green Tunnel
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  #42  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2023, 4:18 PM
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Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
You have to wonder if some interest in Birmingham has acted behind the scenes to keep this service to itself.

I seem to recall that some criticism of the plan was that at full build-out Birmingham would have to reduce its use of HS2 to accommodate the northern trains.
No, this is Sunak blindsiding everyone, tearing up successive manifesto commitments, Tory policy and cross-party agreements.

The full delivery of HS2 would have seen even more services running into Birmingham, not less. Birmingham would have been at the centre of the network, with Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds and London all accessible in <60mins.

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Originally Posted by ih8samson View Post
Not likely. The Tories have stated they intend to sell off the properties acquired for the HS2 right of way and use the proceeds to fund their other transportation priorities. Salting the proverbial earth. In a few years they'll complain the Labour government has failed to deliver transportation infrastructure. This is politics now.
It isn’t quite straightforward, particularly as the route to Crewe has Royal Ascent, contracts awarded and works have already commenced on some sections of the route. The bigger issue is that the stop-start approach pushes up costs (across all UK infrastructure projects) as contractors will push for a premium for these sort of eventualities.
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  #43  
Old Posted Oct 9, 2023, 5:35 PM
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Thank you for the summary update.

What is the likelihood that with a new election a new governing majority could reverse Sunak's cancellation entirely? It's no surprise the Tories would likely get creamed. Is it true that some home counties Conservative MP's want to give the land back that has already been assembled for HS2? That is madness. That feels like the sort of "own the libs" insanity that has become the norm in the US.
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  #44  
Old Posted Oct 10, 2023, 12:27 PM
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Thank you for the summary update.

What is the likelihood that with a new election a new governing majority could reverse Sunak's cancellation entirely? It's no surprise the Tories would likely get creamed. Is it true that some home counties Conservative MP's want to give the land back that has already been assembled for HS2? That is madness. That feels like the sort of "own the libs" insanity that has become the norm in the US.
There is a degree of insanity. Boris Johnson, David Cameron and Teresa May (Sunak’s predecessors as PM) have come out to say that Sunak is being an absolute idiot. Typically you get a post-conference bounce in the polls, except this time they fell.

The Home Counties are generally defined as the area around London, sort of analogous to a London metro area, albeit without the rampant sprawl. As it stands, Phase 1 through the Home Counties, specifically that through Buckinghamshire is well under construction. The legal quagmire is whether land compulsory purchased for Phase 2a (from Birmingham to Crewe) which runs through several Conservative seats is sold off. There are a few question marks around judicial reviews and other legal hurdles put up to try and stop a fire sale.

At the Labour Party Conference yesterday, the Conference reaffirmed (see below) long-term support for full delivery of HS2, not just to Manchester, but Leeds as well. That isn’t a cast iron guarantee, and the Tories have really fudged the economy, but it is a shovel ready project for Labour to just pick up and carry on with.



The problem for Labour is that if they don’t commit to HS2 in full, they will need to look at drastic interventions on the WCML, ECML and MML. A previous costly and highly disruptive upgrade of the WCML saw the capacity gains used up in under a decade, hence the work to deliver a new line (HS2) and avoid replicating those problems on the ECML, MML and other parts of the WCML. Northern Powerhouse Rail wouldn’t be deliverable either in the absence of the western stretch of HS2 into Manchester.

The context is that whilst commuter traffic is still recovering to pre-pandemic levels, discretionary travel is at 130% and intercity travel has most likely already recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Before the pandemic, more journeys were made on the UK’s intercity network than in Germany (ICE) or France (TGV and Intercités). More people were using intercity services on the ECML than the entire Spanish AVE network. HS2 was needed two decades ago.


Another last note, Keir Starmer’s – the leader of the Labour Party – constituency of Holborn & St Pancras includes Euston which would have/could be the HS2 terminus. At the moment it is a giant hole in the ground, stuck in development purgatory. HS2 for him isn’t just a national issue, it’s a local issue as hundreds of residents were evicted and businesses closed down to allow for demolition of what would have become the western HS2 platforms. A view of Euston from the other day taken by Jack Boskett on Twitter: https://twitter.com/jackboskett/stat...79352839037382

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  #45  
Old Posted Oct 11, 2023, 4:18 PM
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^"making sure freight...."

What are the freight rail issues in England? I can't imagine that there is much transformative potential there since the distances are short and the cities are all very close to the coast, unlike the United States, where dozens of mile-long trains travel in each direction each day on many railroads.

Much of the freight rail activity on the US railroads east of the Mississippi River is, ironically, related to the production of automobiles. The lack of excess capacity on said railroads means Amtrak isn't able to carve out a service that can compete with driving personal automobiles on the interstate highways that often parallel the freight railroads. The nascent electric car business is going to bring even more activity to the railroads, as the very heavy EV batteries are poised to be shipped from factories to car assembly plants via rail.
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  #46  
Old Posted Oct 12, 2023, 4:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmecklenborg View Post
^"making sure freight...."

What are the freight rail issues in England? I can't imagine that there is much transformative potential there since the distances are short and the cities are all very close to the coast, unlike the United States, where dozens of mile-long trains travel in each direction each day on many railroads.

Much of the freight rail activity on the US railroads east of the Mississippi River is, ironically, related to the production of automobiles. The lack of excess capacity on said railroads means Amtrak isn't able to carve out a service that can compete with driving personal automobiles on the interstate highways that often parallel the freight railroads. The nascent electric car business is going to bring even more activity to the railroads, as the very heavy EV batteries are poised to be shipped from factories to car assembly plants via rail.
The rail network in the UK (like much of Europe) is far more orientated towards the movement of passengers than freight compared to the setup in North America. There are of course freight movements, and there has more of a drive to shift to rail freight, including more intermodal depots to take lorries off the road, but most freight is moved by lorry.

The below diagram is simplified, but in general, most rail freight is focus on moving goods to/from the southern ports at Southampton, London Gateway, Felixstowe and the Channel Tunnel, Milford Haven in Wales, and up north, the ports of Liverpool, Immingham and Teeside. The relevance to HS2 is that the WCML (in purple), the MML (in light blue) and ECML (turquoise) are the main north-to-south freight corridors; HS2 takes the intercity services off those lines, and the result is lower but more consistent speed services that allows for more trains to operate, whether commuter, regional or freight. Without HS2, you end up with several thousand extra lorry movements every day.


Image sourced from Network Rail: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/wp-con...idors-2023.pdf
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  #47  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2024, 3:10 PM
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Several updates since last year.

Video Link

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Birmingham Curzon St Station
Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...aduct-revealed











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Old Oak Common Station
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...ation-complete





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Edgcott Road Bridge
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...ad-bridge-lift






Saltley Viaduct
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...nto-birmingham




Balsall Common Viaduct
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...common-viaduct




Small Dean Viaduct
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...ndover-viaduct




Turweston Green Bridge
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...t-green-bridge








Bellingham Bridge
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...-in-birmingham



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Colne Valley Viaduct
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...nd-union-canal + https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...r-construction







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Wendover Dean Viaduct
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...uct-deck-slide







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Thame Valley Viaduct
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...valley-viaduct





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East West Rail Crossing
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Delta Junction
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...kend-operation





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Carol Green Underbridge
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...ear-kenilworth



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Burton Green Tunnel
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...burton-green-1





Euston Tunnel
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Northolt Tunnel
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...rcent-complete









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Copthall Green Tunnel
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Chiltern Hills Tunnels
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Bromford Tunnel
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...washwood-heath







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Network Integrated Control Centre & Washwood Heath Depot
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...tre-take-shape







Video Link

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Infrastructure Maintenance Depot
Image sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...-speed-railway





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  #48  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2024, 5:25 PM
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Am I right in thinking that none of the Phase 2 right of way real estate has actually been resold?
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  #49  
Old Posted Jul 22, 2024, 9:01 PM
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Regardless of what happens with the current "cancelled" portions of HS2 plus the Northern Powerhouse Rail scheme, it's clear that an upmost priority of the new Labour gov is to secure the right of way and prevent it's commercial sale, clearly recognizing that would be a disaster regardless of how HS2 plans evolve in the immediate future.
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  #50  
Old Posted Jul 23, 2024, 1:52 PM
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The land for phase 2a (the bit north of Birmingham up to Crewe) hasn’t been sold – yet.7
23

By way of good timing, the National Audit Office released a report looking at the consequences made by the previous Conservative government on cutting back the route.

There are two rather substantial consequences of not building the route north of Birmingham:
  1. HS2’s rolling stock are being built as 200m trains. On dedicated HS2 lines, these will be paired to create 400m units, but they will only be able to run as 200m units on classic lines. The problem is that existing WCML trainsets (class 390’s) are 265m which will result in a 17% cut in capacity. That is catastrophic for a line that is already set to be at capacity in the post-pandemic world within 10-years. The NAO have noted that people will have to be put off from travelling which they note will constrain economic growth, and/or commit to WCML upgrades which will be incredibly disruptive and probably more expensive than just building HS2 in full.
  2. The WCML has quite a few aggressive curves which is why class 390 tilting trains were acquired. Unfortunately HS2’s rolling stock won’t tilt, so HS2 trains on the classic routes will run at slower speeds than existing services.

Other issues in the absence of the full route will be fewer commuter, regional and freight services across the north of England and Midlands and out of Euston. The return for the economy will be far lower.

Hopefully the Labour government look at the above two points and just get on with building the route. It’s as close to a shovel-ready project that they have at the moment, so here’s to hoping common sense prevails.
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  #51  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2024, 11:25 PM
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Just wanted to point out that London to Birmingham is 119 miles, London to Manchester is 215 miles, and the UK has a population of 66.5 million with a gdp around $3.34 trillion.
In comparison, California LA to SF is 383 miles, with a population of 37.2 million with a gdp around $3.98 trillion.
London to Dundee is the equivalent distance from LA to SF, and the UK is having difficulties to fund HSR2 at 215 miles, why do some California can do better for 383 miles?
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  #52  
Old Posted Oct 15, 2024, 11:49 PM
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A big part of the issues with HS2 is that the UK is so much more densely populated than California 727.8 vs 251.3 people per sq mile. Almost tripe. Which means there are a lot more roads, railways, canals, communities and other obstacles to build around and a lot more NIMBYs to complain. One of the biggest cost drivers of HS2 is all the tunneling and other measures made to appease complaints.

So basically California has less stuff to get in the way combined with just as much money.
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  #53  
Old Posted Oct 16, 2024, 3:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse View Post
A big part of the issues with HS2 is that the UK is so much more densely populated than California 727.8 vs 251.3 people per sq mile. Almost tripe. Which means there are a lot more roads, railways, canals, communities and other obstacles to build around and a lot more NIMBYs to complain. One of the biggest cost drivers of HS2 is all the tunneling and other measures made to appease complaints.

So basically California has less stuff to get in the way combined with just as much money.
True. But California will have to dig three times more tunnels in three different mountain areas in solid rock, while UK does not. UK tunnels are not in mountain areas.
As for population, I included that UK has almost twice the population as California in my earlier response. And much of California is the Mohave Desert with very, very few people living in it.

Additionally, the idea that HSR trains built to EU clearance gauge could be extended to run on UK track clearance gauge is like fitting a round peg into a square hole. Not going to fit. It was not going to work in Wigan initially to run towards Scotland, or later in Crewe to run towards Manchester and Liverpool. Likewise, why would anyone run UK clearance gauge trains on the EU clearance gauge HSR tracks? Do you know how fast a train going 300 kph catches a train going 200 kph? Keeping the math simple, in half an hour the 200 kph train goes 100 km, while the 300 kph train goes 150 km. Yes, in less than half an hour the fast train will catch and crash into the slow train with a 50 km (15 minute) head start. The idea that slow trains should be running on HSR tracks seems very foolish.

Last edited by electricron; Oct 16, 2024 at 6:02 PM.
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  #54  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2024, 11:52 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by electricron View Post
Just wanted to point out that London to Birmingham is 119 miles, London to Manchester is 215 miles, and the UK has a population of 66.5 million with a gdp around $3.34 trillion.
In comparison, California LA to SF is 383 miles, with a population of 37.2 million with a gdp around $3.98 trillion.
London to Dundee is the equivalent distance from LA to SF, and the UK is having difficulties to fund HSR2 at 215 miles, why do some California can do better for 383 miles?
The problem with delivering HS2 isn’t really one of difficulty around funding, but one of incessant political interference, pandering to NIMBY elements, and last minute design changes (particularly at Euston), with culminates is uncertainty, extended timescales and ultimately higher costs. There is a degree of perversity to it all, that they should have just got on with it rather than have constant reviews, pauses and etc…

Next week’s Budget will hopefully bring a long overdue announcement to continue works from Old Oak Common to Euston, and there are whispers that the rest of the route to Manchester will resume in phases. It was also announced that the safeguarded land acquired as part of Phase 2 up to Manchester will also be retained.


I don’t know too much about California’s travel patterns and demand, but in the instance of HS2, it is a fundamental requirement to provide long overdue step-change capacity relief for the West Coast Main Line which is Europe’s busiest trunk railway. Avanti West Coast (the primary WCML intercity operator) moved 32.8mn passengers in the YE March 2024, in contrast to Amtrak moving 28.6mn. The mothballed eastern leg will also be needed at some point to provide relief for the Midland Main Line and East Coast Main Line. I would add that tunnelling under urban areas is far more complicated and costly due to the possible impact on subsidence of expensive properties above a route, and the level of mitigation required, compared to rural/mountain passes which have far less impact on people.

Anyways, another progress update.


Old Oak Common Station

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Birmingham Interchange Station
The first beams that will support the HS2 station just outside Birmingham have been erected. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...ridge-progress

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Birmingham Curzon Street Station
Changes to the design for Curzon Street Station in Birmingham have been unveiled, including more cycle parking, improved accessibility, more seating, and a changed internal layout to allow for people to more easily change between platforms. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...street-station + https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/resou...station/design

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Chiltern Tunnel

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Bromford Tunnel

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Rykneld Street Bridge
The first of three bridges being built in Steethay to allow the line to pass under the A38, the South Staffordshire freight line and slip roads. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...-over-hs2-line






Highfurlong Viaduct
The 163m Highfurlong Brook Viaduct near the village of Aston le Walls in Northamptonshire has also been completed. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...pleted-viaduct

Video Link







Wendover Dean Viaduct
The 3,700 tonne deck slide for the 450m double composite viaduct was recently completed. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...uct-deck-slide

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Westbury Viaduct
A deck slide for the 320m Westbury Viaduct has been completed at the same time that the nearby 80m Turweston Viaduct was also completed. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...ckley-viaducts








Edgcote Viaduct
Construction has commenced on the 515m Edgcote Viaduct at Chipping Warden crosses the River Cherwell. Taking inspiration from Spain, the entire structure is constructed off-site. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...dgcote-viaduct

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Colne Valley Viaduct
The final deck segment for Britain’s longest railway bridge has been installed. The 3.4km viaduct traverses the Colne Valley on the outskirts of London. To the north the line enters the Chiltern Hills tunnel and to the south, the Northolt Tunnel under London. Comprised of 56 piers, it is one of 500 bridges being delivered as part of phase 1. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...-hs2-milestone

Video Link











Delta Junction
Work to erect the delta junction viaducts due east of Birmingham where Phase 1 splits is well underway. In total, thirteen viaducts are being built with a cumulative distance of 6.5km. The triangle junction will allow for all services to/from London, Birmingham and the north to avoid conflict. There will be 6 precast segmental viaducts, 4 composite viaducts and 3 low viaducts. The River Thame West Viaduct will carry three tracks, the River Thame East Viaduct will carry one and the Water Orton Viaducts two tracks. Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...delta-junction + https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...-west-viaducts

Video Link


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Video Link







HS2 Archaeological Programme
Quote:
Originally Posted by HS2
HS2’s extensive programme of archaeological investigation began in 2018 with more than 60 sites investigated as part of the infrastructure programme. With over 1,000 archaeologists and specialists working on the project, discoveries made were wide-ranging and included uncovering Romano-British busts, Anglo-Saxon burials rich in jewellery and artefacts in Buckinghamshire, a vast roman trading settlement in Northamptonshire, and the world’s oldest railway roundhouse, designed by Robert Stephenson, in Birmingham.
Images sourced from HS2: https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news/...the-next-phase

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  #55  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2024, 12:52 PM
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Old Posted Nov 1, 2024, 2:30 PM
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WE'RE MAKING IT TO EUSTON!

HS2 Euston link funding announced in Budget
Quote:
The government is "committing the funding required" to begin tunnelling work to bring HS2 to London Euston station, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has announced.

Ms Reeves said in her Budget speech this would encourage private investment in the area.

In October last year, then-prime minister Rishi Sunak announced that extending the high-speed rail project from Old Oak Common, in the suburbs of west London, to Euston, near the centre of the capital, was reliant on private investment - aimed at saving £6.5bn of taxpayers' money.
....
Major HS2 construction work at a site alongside the existing Euston station has been halted since the previous March due to funding doubts.

Ms Reeves said: "We are committing the funding required to begin tunnelling work to London Euston station.

"This will catalyse private investment into the local area, delivering jobs and growth."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm271zepeydo
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